Download SWAN_workshop_overview_v2

Climate Change Planning
in
Alaska’s National Parks
NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
INVENTORY & MONITORING
SOUTHWEST ALASKA NETWORK (SWAN)
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TRAINING
2010-2011
OVERVIEW
Project Background
Changing climatic conditions
impact environmental, social
and economic conditions in
National Park System areas.
Alaska park managers need to
understand changes in order to
more effectively manage various
ecosystems and human uses.
NPS and SNAP collaborate to help
managers, personnel, and key stakeholders develop plausible climate
change scenarios for Alaska NPS areas.
National Park Service Areas in Alaska
Arctic Network
(ARCN)
Central Alaska
Network
(CAKN)
Southwest
Alaska Network
(SWAN)
Southeast
Alaska Network
(SEAN)
SWAN Parks and Sites
The Aleutians World
War II Monument
was not included in
this assessment of
the SWAN network.
Lake Clark
Aniakchak
Katmai
Kenai Fjords
Workshop Participants
REPRESENTATIVES FROM:
 National Park Service (NPS)
 Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic
Planning (SNAP)
 United States Geological Survey (USGS)
 Alaska Sea Life Center (ASLC)
 Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA)
 U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS)
 U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
– Forest Service
SNAP: Scenarios Network
for Alaska & Arctic Planning
 What is most important to Alaskans
and other Arctic partners?
o What changes are most likely?
o What changes will have the greatest
impact?
o How can we adapt to those changes?
o What are we best able to predict?
 Scenarios are linked to SNAP models,
including:
o Climate models
o Models of how people use land and
resources
o Other models linked to climate and
human behavior
www.snap.uaf.edu
The science of climate change
 Unequivocal scientific evidence that our
planet is warming
 How this warming will affect climate
systems around the globe is an
enormously complex question
 Uncertainty and variability are inevitable
 Climate change presents significant risks
to natural and cultural resources
 Understanding how to address
uncertainty is an important part of
climate change planning
http://geology.com/news/labels/Global-Warming.html
Pre-workshop webinars
Feb 2, 2011:
 Basic concepts of scenarios planning outlined by GBN
 Data and resources available through SNAP and others
 Importance of planning for climate change
Feb 9, 2011:
 Climate drivers for SWAN parks
Feb 16, 2011:
 Climate effects table created for SWAN parks
SNAP Methods:
Projections based on IPCC models
Calculated concurrence of 15 models
with data for 1958-2000 for surface air
temperature, air pressure at sea level,
and precipitation.
2. Used root-mean-square error (RMSE)
evaluation to select the 5 models that
performed best for Alaska, 60-90°N,
and 20-90°N latitude.
3. Used A1B, B1 and A2 emissions
scenarios.
4. Downscaled coarse GCM output to 2km
using PRISM data.
1.
SNAP data: climate projections
Projected Temperatures
 Temperature
 Precipitation (rain and snow)
 Every month of every year from
1900 to 2100 (historical + projected)
 5 models, 3 emissions scenarios
2000s
 Available as maps, graphs, charts,
raw data
 Online, downloadable - in Google
Earth, GIS, or printable formats
2090s
SNAP data:
climate projections
 Temperature
2000s
 Precipitation (rain and snow)
 Every month of every year from
1900 to 2100 (historical + projected)
 5 models, 3 emissions scenarios
2090s
 Available as maps, graphs, charts,
raw data
Projected January
Temperatures
2000s & 2090s
 Online, downloadable - in Google
Earth, GIS, or printable formats
1980s
SNAP data:
complex linked models
 Season length
2040s
 Shifting plants and animals
(biomes and ecosystems)
 Water availability
 Forest fire
2080s
 Soil temperature and
permafrost (example at left)
Soil Temperature at 1m depth
Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF
NPS Talking Points Papers
 Available for Alaska Maritime and Transitional
and Alaska Boreal and Arctic
 Accessible, up-to-date information about climate
change impacts to park resources
 Each paper has three major sections:
Information on regional changes based on seven impacts
2. No Regrets Actions that can be taken now
3. Discussion of global climate change based on four topics
1.
Access these and other documents at http://www.snap.uaf.edu/webshared/Nancy%20Fresco/NPS/
Climate Drivers, or
“Scenario Drivers Based on Climate”
Scenarios planners
look at the general
and specific
changes expected
in each climate
driver, as well as
the size and
patterns of the
expected change.
 Temperature
 Precipitation
 Relative humidity
 Wind speed
 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
 Extreme weather events
 Sea ice
 Permafrost
 Snow
 Freeze-up date
 Sea level
 Water availability
Atmosphere Climate Effects
Selected and ranked by participants
Increased carbon storage where forests spread; decreased where
Greenhouse gases drought causes loss of forest or where fire and permafrost release
methane and CO2
ATMOSPHERE
Air temperature
Precipitation
Air temperature increases ~1°F per decade; greatest change in the
north and in winter.
Average annual precipitation increases. Relative amounts of snow, ice
or rain change.
Many areas experience drying conditions despite increased
precipitation.
More freezing rain events affect foraging success for wildlife, travel
safety, etc.
Lightning and lightning-ignited fires continue to increase.
Storms
Storm and wave impacts increase in northern Alaska where land-fast
sea ice forms later.
Air quality
More smoke from longer and more intense fire seasons.
Contaminants
Increased contaminants and shifting contaminant distribution.
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
Cryosphere Climate Effects
Selected and ranked by participants
Later onset of freeze-up and snowfall + earlier spring snowmelt and break-up.
Snow/ice
Arctic snow cover declines with higher air temperatures and earlier spring thaw.
Lack of snow cover leads to deeper freezing of water in the ground or rivers.
CRYOSPHERE
Cultural resources are exposed as snow and ice patches melt and recede.
Glaciers
Most glaciers diminish as warming continues, though a few are still advancing.
Glacial outwash affects aquatic productivity and forms deposits in shallow water.
Glacial lakes fail more frequently, creating risk of flash floods and debris flows.
Surging glaciers could block rivers and fjords, resulting in severe flooding.
Less sea ice complicates travel, impacts ecosystems, and adds energy to storm
surges.
Sea ice
Seasonal reductions in sea ice increase the risk of spills contaminating coastal
resources.
Reduced winter transportation affects opportunities for travel and subsistence.
Ice roads
Mercury & other pollutants are released into aquatic environments as permafrost
Permafrost
thaws.
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
Hydrosphere Climate Effects
Selected and ranked by participants
st
Sea level
Global average sea level is predicted to rise 1-6 feet by the end of the 21 Century.
Increased storm surges and permafrost erosion compound effects of change in sea
level.
Some coastal villages rapidly lose ground from storms, erosion and subsidence.
HYDROSPHERE
Increasing sea surface temperature affects fish, seabird, and wildlife populations.
Marine
Falling global phytoplankton could reduce ocean productivity and CO2 sequestration.
Freshwater influx from thawing glaciers dilutes marine waters, stressing animals.
Toxic marine algae & shellfish poisoning attributed to changes in water conditions.
Ocean acidification affects food sources of fish, marine mammals & birds in the Arctic.
Estuarine
Coastal erosion and sea level rise increase the frequency of saltwater flooding.
Some shallow water areas convert to terrestrial ecosystems with post-glacial rebound.
Freshwater
Stream flows from melting glaciers increase and then decrease over time.
Ponds shrink as ground ice thaws or thermokarst drainage occurs in permafrost areas.
Groundwater Groundwater supplies dependent on seasonal glacial recharge become less predictable.
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
Climate Effects, as selected and ranked by participants
LITHOSPHERE
Ground
level
Ground level rises in recently de-glaciated areas because of isostatic rebound.
LITHOSPHERE
More roads and infrastructure fail or require repairs due to permafrost thaw.
Ground
stability
Landslides and mud flows increase on steep slopes. Rapid glacial retreat and
permafrost thaw leave steep and unstable slopes in valleys and fjords.
Earthquake activity increases in recently deglaciated areas due to isostatic
rebound.
Large and small tsunamis could result from collapse of unstable slopes in fjords.
Coastal erosion claims both natural and cultural resources and constructed assets.
Burials and other remains are exposed as cultural sites thaw and erode.
Soil
Soil moisture declines due to rising soil temperature, thawing permafrost, and
drainage.
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
Biosphere Climate Effects – 1 of 4
Selected and ranked by participants
Average number of frost-free days for the Arctic could increase between 20 and 40
days by 2100.
Vegetation Increased agricultural production in Alaska because of longer growing season.
Potential large-scale shift of tundra to shrubs, to conifers, to deciduous forests or grass.
BIOSPHERE
Atypical outbreaks of pests and diseases affect native species and increase fire hazards.
Invasive exotic plant species and native species from other areas expand their ranges.
Forests
Black spruce may expand with warming – or contract as permafrost soils thaw and fires
increase.
Mature forests and “old growth” decline because of drought, insects, disease, and fire.
Mature yellow cedars decline across southeast Alaska, possibly due to lack of insulating
snow.
Fire
Models show a warmer climate leads to larger, more frequent and intense fires.
Wildland fire hazards increase, affecting communities and isolated property owners.
Fire-related landcover and soil changes result in vegetation shifts, permafrost thaw, etc.
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
Biosphere Climate Effects – 2 of 4
Selected and ranked by participants
Changes to terrestrial and aquatic species occur as ranges shift, contract, expand.
Wildlife
Animals and plants will expand into landscapes vacated by glacial ice.
BIOSPHERE
Migratory routes and destinations will change (e.g., wetlands, open tundra, snow
patches).
Arctic and alpine birds’ breeding habitats reduced as trees and shrubs encroach on
tundra.
Birds
Waterfowl shifts occur as coastal ponds become more salty.
Productivity of nesting shorebirds may increase if schedules change to coincide w/
insects.
Predation on ground nesting birds could increase if prey (lemming) abundance
declines.
Coastal seabirds (e.g. Ivory Gull and Aleutian Tern) are vulnerable to climate change.
Population cycles of birds and their prey could be out of sync due to higher
temperatures.
Marine
Mammals
Arctic marine mammals (e.g. seals, walrus, whales) are affected by sea ice decline.
Less sound absorption (ocean acidification) affects marine mammals that rely on
echolocation.
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
Biosphere Climate Effects – 3 of 4
Selected and ranked by participants
Caribou/
Reindeer
BIOSPHERE
Moose
Caribou and reindeer health are affected by changes in weather, forage, and insects and
pests.
Earlier green-up could improve caribou calf survival because of more available forage.
Caribou may suffer heavy losses if rain events prevent successful feeding during cold
weather.
Shifts in forests could mean less habitat for caribou, but more habitat for moose.
Climate change could hinder moose calf birth success and moose calf survival.
Fire may create new burrowing habitat and forage growth to help vole populations.
Small
Mammals Less snow cover = increased predation & cold stress for subnivian species.
Commercial fisheries affected by changes to ocean communities in the Bering Sea.
Some marine plant and animal populations may decline with ocean acidification.
Fisheries
New stream habitats become available for fish and wildlife as glaciers decline.
Some salmon waters may become unsuitable for migration, spawning and incubation.
Fish habitats in permafrost areas are degraded by slumps and sediment input into rivers.
Invertebrates
Ice worm populations decline locally as glacier habitats melt.
Exotic pests expand from warmer areas, endemic pests expand as host species are
stressed.
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
Biosphere Climate Effects – 4 of 4
Selected and ranked by participants
Altered animal migration patterns make subsistence hunting more challenging.
BIOSPHERE
Subsistence
Sea ice changes make hunting for marine mammals less predictable & more
dangerous.
Managing new species and intensified management of native species may be
needed.
Tourism
Longer summer seasons and more cruise ships in the Bering Strait could
increase tourism.
Hazards
Safety hazards related to climate change, e.g. thin ice, flooding, changing fire
regimes, etc.
TEK
Uses of traditional ecological knowledge become less predictive and less
reliable.
Development
More natural resource development in Alaska with increasing global demand.
More developmental pressures, e.g. opening of Northwest Passage,
community resettlement, etc.
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
Aug 2010 Training Workshop:
Scenarios Planning Process
 Led by Global Business Network
(GBN)
 Participants learned how to
develop scenarios based on a
nested framework of critical
uncertainties
 Participants fleshed out
beginnings of climate change
scenarios for two pilot park
networks
Global Business Network (GBN) - A member of the Monitor Group
©2010 Monitor Company Group
Forecasts vs. Scenarios
 Forecast Planning
 One Future
-10%
+10%
What we know today
Global Business Network (GBN)
 Scenario Planning
 Multiple Futures
Uncertainties
What we know today
©2010 Monitor Company Group
Explaining Scenarios:
A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process
This diagram describes
the 5 key steps required
in any scenario
planning process
What is the strategic
issue or decision that
we wish to address?
What critical forces
will affect the
future of
our issue?
How do we combine and
synthesize these forces to
create a small number of
alternative stories?
Global Business Network (GBN)
As new
information
unfolds, which
scenarios seem
most valid?
Does this affect
our decisions
and actions?
What are the implications
of these scenarios for our
strategic issue, and what
actions should we take
in light of them?
©2010 Monitor Company Group
Scenario Creation Process
Step One: Orient
Strategic issue or decision:
How can NPS managers best
preserve the natural and cultural
resources and values within their
jurisdiction in the face of climate
change?
Kenai Fjords National Park
To address this challenge, we need to explore a broader question:
How will climate change effects
impact the landscapes within
NPS management units over the
next 50 to 100 years?
Photo credit: Kenai Fjords | http://www.ent.iastate.edu/sip/2005/companiontours
Scenario Creation Process
Step Two: Explore
What critical forces will affect the future of our issue?
CRITICAL
CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
UNCERTAINTIES
BIOREGION: ______________
BIOREGION:
________________
Over the next 50 – 100 years, what will happen to . . . ?
Over the next 50─100 years, what will happen to…?
ERT-HLY 2010
Global Business Network (GBN)
Copyright © 2010 Monitor Company Group, L.P. — Confidential
Critical forces
generally have
unusually high
impact and
unusually high
uncertainty
1
©2010 Monitor Company Group
Climate Scenarios
Combining two
selected drivers
creates four
possible futures
Global Business Network (GBN)
Driver 2
BIOREGION: ______________
Driver 1
©2010 Monitor Company Group
“Nested Scenarios”
1
2
3
4
Lack of senior commitment
Varied approach &
alignment
Short-term concerns
Is Anyone Out There?...
Global Business Network (GBN)
Big problems, Big solutions…
5
6
7
8
Senior commitment
International alignment
Long-term perspectives
Nature of Leadership
9
10
11
12
Degree of
Nesting each
story in a social
framework
creates 16
possibilities
Societal Concern
Broad Understanding
Heightened Urgency
Riots and Revolution…
Widespread indifference
Competing concerns
13
14
15
16
Wheel-Spinning…
©2010 Monitor Company Group
Step 3: Synthesize
BIOREGION: ________________
SocioPolitical
Describe This World in 2030
Major Impacts on the Bioregion
Issues Facing Management
Bioregion
Climate
Nested Scenario Details
The 16 possible futures created
in the preceding steps must be
narrowed down to 3-4
scenarios that are relevant,
divergent, challenging, and
pertinent. Each has its own
narrative (story).
Scenario Creation Process
Step Four: Act
Categorizing Options to
Help Set Strategy
Robust: Pursue only those options
that would work out well (or okay) in
any of the four scenarios
- OR -
Bet the
Farm
Core
Hedge
Your
Bets
Hedge
Your
Bets
Bet the Farm: Make one clear bet
that a certain future will happen —
and then do everything you can to
help make that scenario a reality
- OR -
Robust
Satellite
Hedge
Your
Bets
Global Business Network (GBN)
Hedge Your Bets: Make several
distinct bets of relatively equal size
Hedge
Your
Bets
- OR Satellite
Core/Satellite: Place one major bet,
with small bets as a hedge against
uncertainty, experiments, real options
©2010 Monitor Company Group
SWAN
Workshop
Results
Step 1: Orient
Strategic issue or decision:
Example: Riverine
To address this challenge, we need
to explore a broader question:
Nuka River, Kenai Fjords National Park | Photo credit: Sandra Healy
Step 2: Explore
• Precipitation
(low/high
variation)
Precipitation
Thaw
• Thaw Days
(more/less)
Days
Climate drivers
selected by workshop
participants for
Riverine:
Climate Scenarios (Riverine)
More with warming
PDO phase
Each quadrant
yields a set of
future conditions
which are:
“JuneauHelly/Hansen”
“Smokey”
1
Days
2
High Variation
Precipitation
Thaw
Less Variation
“Freeze Dried”
“Tiny Ice Age”
3
4
Less with cold PDO
phase
•
•
•
•
plausible
challenging
relevant
divergent
Step 3: Climate scenarios 1&2 (Riverine)
1) “Smokey”
2) “Juneau/Helly Hansen”
 Drought stressed vegetation
 Increase in rain-on-snow events
 Increased disease/pests
 Thicker vegetation
 Maximum shrub expansion
 Increased erosion
 Long-term reduction stream flow
 Increased evaporation (soil drying)
 Initially higher stream flows from
 More berries






glacial melt
Reduction/loss of glaciers
Increased fire on landscape
40% reduction in salmon fry
Lowering of groundwater tables
Decrease in stream flow
Decrease in subsistence
 Increase in park infrastructure
impacts
 Decrease in backcountry visitation
(more rain, fewer flying days)
 Increased difficulty in controlling
contamination (runoff)
 Increase in avalanches
Step 3: Climate scenarios 3&4 (Riverine)
3) “Freeze Dried”
 Permafrost persists
4) “Tiny Ice Age”
 Increase damage risk in cultural
 Decrease in productivity (plant,








berries)…impact on wildlife
Overland access continues
Competition of water resources
(mining, communities)
Facilities/infrastructure stable
Slow retreat of tundra ponds
Extend range of Dahl Sheep
Lichens stable, supporting caribou
High wind potential
Brown bear decrease







resources/infrastructure
Increase bear activity for Brooks
Camp (KATM)
Decrease in ungulates
Decrease in bark beetle and fire
KATM Brooks Camp barge has
adequate Naknek Lake water depth
to access
Stable glaciers
High summer stream flows
Increase in winter access.
Step 4: Choosing Response Strategies
Robust responses are
common no-regrets actions,
but they are not the only
possibility.
In some cases, it may make
sense to hedge bets to avoid
an occurrence that appears
in only one or two scenarios,
or to set up core and satellite
responses to deal with
variability among scenarios.
Global Business Network (GBN) - A member of the Monitor Group
Bet the
Farm
Core
Hedge
Your
Bets
Satellite
Hedge
Your
Bets
Robust
Hedge
Your
Bets
Hedge
Your
Bets
Satellite
©2010 Monitor Company Group
Step 4: Common No Regrets Actions





Coordinate communication with other agencies
Tune planning process to account for multiple
possibilities
Create seamless data sets
Get missing players to the climate change
scenario table at subsequent meetings
Provide science outreach and education to
multiple audiences
Next Steps
The scenario planning
process doesn’t end
with “SYNTHESIZE”
• Teleconferences and webinars to
confirm results and fill in gaps
• Discussion of how to turn plans
into concrete actions
• Development of outreach tools
and information, including final
report
• Dissemination of scenarios and
explanations of the process and
results to a broad audience
• Feedback from a wider audience
• Linkages with planning for other
park networks
Global Business Network (GBN) - A member of the Monitor Group
©2010 Monitor Company Group