Download Technical/operational measures

Climate change:
A challenge for IMO too!
September 2008
1
What is the greenhouse effect?
2
What is causing global warming?
The six greenhouse gases with the highest
warming potential are:
•Carbon dioxide
-
CO2
•Methane
-
CH4
•Nitrous oxide
-
N2 O
•Hydro fluorocarbons
-
HFCs
•Per fluorocarbons
-
PFCs
•Sulphur hexafluoride
-
SF6
Of these gases, CO2 is by far the most abundant
3
The impact:
- Increased temperature
- Sea level rise due to
melting of permanent ice
caps and glaciers
-More violent and frequent
weather phenomena
⃗
CLIMATE CHANGE
4
Source: IPCC FAR 2007
Time is running out …
NASA 2006
Climate change is already experienced worldwide
5
1979
6
2005
7
Are things getting worse already?
Millions are suffering from ever more
violent and frequent hurricanes in Asia and
the Americas
8
And millions are suffering from too
much water
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... or no water at all
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What is the world community doing?
First step: Adoption of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992.
- Aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic
interference” with the climate system.
Second step: Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997
- Commits developed countries (Annex I Parties) to
reduce their overall emissions by an average of 5.2%
below 1990 levels between 2008-2012.
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What is the world community doing?
(continued)
Third step: The Bali Conference in 2007
- Adopted the Bali Action Plan to meet the immediate
challenges of climate change, namely; adaptation,
mitigation, technology transfer and financing.
Fourth step: The Copenhagen Conference in 2009
- Expected to adopt more drastic reductions effective
from 2012, through a “post-Kyoto” treaty.
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What is the consensus view
of the world’s most eminent scientists?
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (FAR)
- A 1ºC to 2C increase in temperature above 1990 levels will
place many unique and threatened systems, including many
biodiversity hotspots, at significant risk.
- A global mean temperature increase of more that 2C will
lead to increasing risk of species extinction and climate havoc
-The CO2 concentration must not exceed 450 ppm to keep the
global warming within 2C above 1990 level by 2100
To avoid this, CO2 emissions must peak within
10 – maximum 15 years
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To put it graphically….
CO
CO222Concentration
Concentrationin
inIce
Ice Core
CoreSamples
Samplesand
and
CO
Concentration
in
Ice
Core
Samples
and
Projections
for
Next
100
Projections for
for Next
Next 100
100 Years
Years
Projections
Years
700
700
Projected
Projected
(2100)
(2100)
Expected in 2100
650
650
Vostok
Vostok
Record
VostokRecord
Record
IPCC
IS92a
IPCC
Scenario
IPCC IS92a
IS92aScenario
Scenario
Law
Dome
Record
Law
Dome
Record
Law Dome Record
Mauna
Mauna
Loa
Record
MaunaLoa
LoaRecord
Record
550
550
Increasing CO2 concentration
500
500
450
450
400
400
2005
Current
Current
(2001)
(2001)
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
400,000
400,000
400,000
300,000
300,000
300,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
Years
Years
Before
Present
YearsBefore
Before Present
Present
(B.P.
(B.P.
1950)
(B.P.------1950)
1950)
Source: IPCC FAR 2007
100,000
100,000
0
0
CO22Concentration
Concentration(ppmv)
(ppmv)
Concentration
(ppmv)
CO
600
600
So, to what extent is shipping to blame?
At present, CO2 emissions from international
shipping amount to less that 3% of the total
world’s emissions from all sources.
A very modest contribution, but in recent years it
has been targeted by the media with the
perception that, collectively, ships emit as much
CO2 as some individual industrialized countries,
Often ignoring some facts …
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e.g. that Shipping:
• Carries 90%+ of world trade:
– Raw materials and
commodities
– Finished goods
– Foodstuffs
– Fuel
• Underpins global economy and
is essential for sustainable
development
• Is safe, secure and the most
environmentally- friendly and
fuel-efficient of all modes of
transport
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To illustrate this…
CO2 emissions by
different transport modes
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Are we merely reacting to the press?
IMO’s determination to address climate change comes
from a deep and genuine concern for the environment
and the future of the planet
As a former British Prime Minister put it, we have no right
to “live at the expense of future generations”
Governments, industry as a whole and each and
everyone of us individually have a duty of care towards
the environment
So, shipping is expected to contribute, however modestly,
to the wider efforts being made to arrest global warming
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Has IMO taken any action already?
IMO has been working on this issue for more than ten years
1991:
1997:
2000:
2003:
2005:
2005:
2007:
2008:
2008:
Resolution A.719(17) – Recognized the need of establishing a
policy on prevention of air pollution from ships
MARPOL Conference: Resolution 8 – CO2 emissions from ships
IMO Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships
Assembly resolution A.963(23) – IMO Policies and practices
related to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from ships
MEPC/Circ.471 – Interim Guidelines for voluntary ship CO2
Emission Indexing for use in trials
MEPC 55 – Work plan to identify and develop the mechanisms
needed to achieve the limitation or reduction of CO2 emissions
from international shipping
MEPC 56 – Timeframe and Terms of Reference for updating the
2000 IMO Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships
MEPC 57 – Fundamental principles underlying IMO policies on
GHG emissions from ships
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June - Intersessional meeting of the Working Group on GHG
emissions from ships in Oslo
Where are we now?
Regulatory package for all ships nearing completion.
In accordance with the approved Work Plan, MEPC 58 is
expected to agree to the following:
Technical measures:
-New ship CO2 Design Index
Operational measures:
-Revised CO2 Operational Index and associated
guidelines
-Guidance on best practices for the fuel-efficient
operation of ships
MEPC 58 to continue developing market-based measures.
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In a bit more detail…
The new ship CO2 Design Index:
-A formula that will enable ship
designers and builders to design
and construct ships of the future for
maximum efficiency and, thus,
minimum GHG emissions
-A baseline will limit the level of emissions according to
ship type, size, etc.
-To be made mandatory, probably under MARPOL
Annex VI
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In a bit more detail…
The CO2 Operational Index:
-Intended to measure the operational efficiency of an
existing ship
-It allows efficiency comparisons between similar
ships on similar routes and enables the operator to
introduce further efficiency measures
-With its associated Guidelines, it is meant to be
voluntary in nature
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In a bit more detail…
The Guidance on Best Practices:
-Will provide existing ship operators with practical advice
as to the technical and operational means at their disposal
to make their ships more efficient
-Being developed in close collaboration with the shipping
industry
-Meant to be voluntary in nature
-Conceived as an efficiency
management tool for ship
operators
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Examples of efficiency measures:
Technical:
-Improved fuel consumption – Hull and engines
-More efficient propellers and rudders
-Shore power – “cold ironing”
-Wind power
-Alternative fuels
Operational:
-Energy management
-Vessel speed reduction
-Improved routeing & less waiting
-Enhanced fleet management
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Will these reductions be enough?
They probably would if demand for international shipping
stopped growing. BUT…
-World trade is likely to keep increasing, even during
a global economic crisis
-Emerging economies, such as China, India, Brazil
and others generate a growing need for shipping
-Many developing countries depend on sea transport
for food and basic commodities
So, the reductions achieved by applying technical and
operational measures may be offset by an increase in
shipping activity over time.
That’s why we may need market-based measures 25
Market-based measures?
Basically, these are economic mechanisms that enable
those who emit more CO2 than an established limit or
“cap” to buy “credits” earned by those who emit less than
the limit. There are two main modalities being
considered for shipping:
-Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)
-Fuel Levy
This subject is very complex and merits a dedicated
presentation. Perhaps next year.
The introduction of these measures may necessitate a
self-standing treaty instrument, along the lines of the
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IOPC Fund Convention
Are there any serious obstacles?
We hope there will not be major problems in regulating
the technical or operational measures. However, a
number of countries continue invoking the UNFCCC’s
principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”
They argue that industrialized countries (Annex I Parties)
should be the ones to take action in reducing
greenhouse gas emissions from any source
This principle is applied to shipping under article 2.2 of
the Kyoto Protocol, which states that “The Parties
included in Annex I shall pursue limitation or reduction of
emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled by the
Montreal Protocol from aviation and marine bunker fuels,
working trough ICAO and IMO, respectively.”
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This seems fair; what is the problem?
The principle is fair if applied to land-based industries
subject to national controls, such as power generation,
cement production or land transport.
However, if applied to shipping, the effect would be that
ships flagged in Annex I (industrialized) countries (25% of
the world fleet) would be obliged to reduce their emissions,
whereas ships flagged in non-industrialized countries (the
vast majority of the world fleet) would not.
This is contrary to the spirit of all IMO Conventions, which
apply equally to all ships, regardless of flag.
Any such regime would eliminate the “level playing field”
principle and would introduce unfair competition and flag
hopping.
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Is there a solution in sight?
The Secretary-General, while emphasizing the need to
keep IMO Membership united, is spearheading a high-level
campaign, advocating the following two principles:
-Any IMO regulatory regime should be applicable to all
ships engaged in international trade, regardless of flag
-The development and enactment of such a regulatory
regime should be the responsibility of IMO, not the
UNFCCC
Administrations are being provided with sound arguments,
both procedural and legal.
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How can this work in practice?
e.g. by separating the technical/operational measures
from the market-based measures, such that:
Technical/operational measures
-Mandatory provisions (CO2 Design Index) may be adopted
under MARPOL Annex VI at MEPC 59
-Non-mandatory provisions (CO2 Operational Index and Best
Practices) may be adopted by MEPC resolution
-Both of these would apply to all ships.
Market-based measures
-Continue developing an acceptable global mechanism
(Emission Trading Scheme/Fuel Levy/Hybrid)
-Applicable to all ships but revenues to be used with
common but differentiated responsibilities in mind.
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Finally, will UNFCCC accept the plan?
Hopefully…But it has to be adopted by IMO Members
first!
The Secretary-General intends to present a position
paper to the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC
(COP 15) to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009
In the post-Kyoto instrument to be adopted by COP 15,
ideally, there should be an article merely stating that:
“The Parties shall pursue limitation or reduction of
emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled by the
Montreal Protocol from marine bunker fuels, working
through IMO.”
With no IMO regime in place, regional and unilateral
action may proliferate (EU; USA; Japan; Australia) 31
Summing up
•If shipping is to have a positive impact on climate
change, it needs a global regime developed and enacted
by IMO and applied to all ships engaged in international
trade, giving due consideration to the needs of
developing countries
•IMO will continue to work hard, in co-operation with the
industry, the UNFCCC Secretariat and other relevant UN
organizations, to achieve that noble objective
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Thank you for your attention!
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