Download Hydropower Vulnerability and Climate Change

Hydropower Vulnerability and Climate Change
A Framework for Modeling the Future of Global Hydroelectric Resources
Ben Blackshear ∙ Tom Crocker ∙ Emma Drucker ∙ John Filoon ∙ Jak Knelman ∙ Michaela Skiles
Middlebury College Environmental Studies Senior Seminar
Fall 2011
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................................................. iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................................................................... v
1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................ 1
Study Objectives and Methodology ........................................................................................................... 3
2. TYPOLOGY OF HYDROPOWER SCHEMES............................................................................................... 6
Pumped storage ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Reservoir .............................................................................................................................................................. 8
Run-of-river ........................................................................................................................................................ 9
3. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS PERTINENT TO HYDROPOWER .................................................... 11
Change in precipitation ........................................................................................................................... 12
Change in temperature ........................................................................................................................... 13
Change in specific humidity .................................................................................................................. 14
Change in stream flow ............................................................................................................................. 15
Glaciation ...................................................................................................................................................... 16
4. ILLUSTRATED FRAMEWORK OF CLIMATE CHANGE AS IT AFFECTS HYDROPOWER
PRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................................... 18
Definitions of variables included in our illustrated framework .................................................. 21
Evaporation ................................................................................................................................................. 21
Discharge ...................................................................................................................................................... 21
Temporal variability ................................................................................................................................ 21
Flooding ........................................................................................................................................................ 22
Droughts ....................................................................................................................................................... 22
Seasonal offset ............................................................................................................................................ 23
Glacial melt .................................................................................................................................................. 23
5. REGIONAL FINDINGS ................................................................................................................................... 24
North America................................................................................................................................................. 25
Europe ................................................................................................................................................................ 32
ii
South America ................................................................................................................................................. 39
Oceania .............................................................................................................................................................. 46
Asia ...................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Middle East ....................................................................................................................................................... 57
Africa .................................................................................................................................................................. 63
6. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................................ 69
REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................................... 71
iii
ABSTRACT
The main purpose of this study is to assess how climate change will impact global
hydroelectric production. This assessment was carried out through an extensive literature
review that investigated current trends in hydropower as well climate change effects
predicted to influence hydroelectric production. The summarized results of this literature
review are provided by region in this report. Our research indicated that climate change
effects, especially alterations in evaporation, river discharge, temporal precipitation
patterns, frequency of extreme meteorological events, and glacial melt rate, have the
potential to induce appreciable change, both positive and negative, in hydroelectric
production in every part of the world. We also found that the type and characteristics of a
given hydropower facility play an important role in determining its vulnerability to these
impacts. In this report, the comparative resiliencies of reservoir, run-of-river, and pumped
storage facilities to the aforementioned important climate change effects are considered
and represented in a framework. Decision-makers involved with hydropower development
can use our framework in conjunction with the provided global climate change maps to
acquire a basic understanding of how climate change will affect current or future
hydropower infrastructure in all areas of the globe. We hope that these resources will allow
decision-makers around the world to efficiently assess hydropower vulnerability caused by
climate change impacts.
iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Our group would like to thank Matt Landis, our community partner, for his professional
guidance of our project. He helped us hone our project’s focus and provided us with
fundamental assistance throughout the course of the semester.
We would also like to thank our professors, Cat Ashcraft and Diane Munroe, for providing a
great deal of constructive feedback on our report. The comments and suggestions that they
offered throughout the semester have allowed our ideas to develop into a valuable project.
Thanks to our classmates in ES401 for all the good times we have been able to share. You
guys are lots of fun.
v
1. INTRODUCTION
Between 2007 and 2035, worldwide energy consumption is projected to double. 1 Scientists
predict that the global population will swell to over 10 billion by 2050. 2 Our current
population is already taxing current energy and water resources. These demands will grow
with the global population. Developing countries’ water withdrawals are likely to increase
50 percent by 2025, while the withdrawal rates in developed countries are projected to
increase roughly 18 percent. 3 The next forty years promise to challenge energy and water
resource management. Hydropower is one response to these challenges; in many areas of
the world dams provide energy and regulate water supply. However, climate change will
alter global hydropower production. Climate change impacts have the potential to make
hydropower either more or less vulnerable. In areas where hydropower generation will
decrease due to climate change impacts, entire nations may find themselves without a
reliable source of electricity.
Each region of the globe will face unique challenges as our climate changes. Floods,
droughts, rapid glacial melt, increasing temperatures, and variability in the timing, location
and amount of precipitation, are all symptoms of climate change that will affect
hydroelectric generation by increasing water resources and hydropower potential in some
regions and diminishing them in others. Though all nations are susceptible to the effects of
global climate change, developing countries are inherently more vulnerable to the effects of
climate change disruptions because they have fewer disposable resources to spend on
unexpected extreme weather events and on adapting to long-term alterations.
Changes in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns have profound effects on
river systems. These impacts directly affect hydroelectric production. Rapidly melting
glaciers in the Rocky Mountains, the Andes, and the Himalaya change the already variable
hydrographs of the rivers they feed. Severe storms caused by warming ocean temperatures
have the capacity to threaten hydropower infrastructure and flood entire regions.
Hydropower is dependent on river discharge to create electricity. Generally, the lower the
river discharge, the less electricity a hydropower facility can generate. Differing scales and
types of hydropower are more vulnerable to climate change phenomena. Our study
considers how projected climate change impacts will affect hydropower vulnerability
across the globe.
1
International Water Management Institute. (2011). Climate Change & Water. Retrieved from
http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Topics/Climate_Change/default.aspx.
2
Nexus of Water and Energy. (2011). Facts & figures. Retrieved from http://www.nexuswaterenergy.com/keyfacts/facts-figures.
3
Ibid.
1
Though hydropower is widely considered to be a renewable resource and a low emissions
alternative to fossil fuels, it comes with its own set of environmental impacts. Many of these
impacts will likely intensify as the effects of climate change become more severe.
Hydropower already constitutes a significant proportion of many countries’ energy
portfolios. Some countries, such as China, have already made massive investments in
hydropower in their own country as well as abroad. Certain regions are dominated by
large-scale hydropower while others are powered through smaller scale hydropower
projects. Due to the global scope of this study, we focus on larger projects. Future plans for
hydroelectric generation vary greatly from region to region, as do the effects of climate
change. Across North America, concerned environmentalists are working to decommission
large dams, while areas in Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East are in the
process of building large dams.
Case Study: The Mekong River
In this report, we illustrate how our framework applies to
specific situations by describing the impacts of climate
change on hydropower generation in the Mekong River
Basin. The Mekong River is located in South Asia and
originates in the Himalayan Mountains. It provides an
interesting case study for many reasons. First, this area of
the globe is predicted to see massive climate change effects. 4
Second, there are already numerous hydropower facilities
along the Mekong River as well as along its tributaries. In
fact, over 130 hydropower projects are either planned or
operating along this river. 5 Finally, the Mekong River flows
through China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and
Vietnam—all of which are rapidly developing countries with
increasing energy, food, and water demands. Thus, the
implications of climate change on hydropower are especially
significant to the residents of the Mekong River Basin.
4
Mekong River Delta. Credit: WWF
Izrael, Y. (2007). The fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change: Working group
II contribution. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 32(9), 551.
5
Lee, Yoolim. (26 Oct. 2010). China Hydropower Dams in Mekong River Give Shocks to 60 Million. Bloomberg.
Retrieved from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-26/china-hydropower-dams-in-mekong-river-giveshocks-to-60-million.html.
2
Study Objectives and Methodology
Through extensive research, interpretation, and geographic visualization, we assess how
climate change will affect hydroelectric production across the globe. We created this report
in collaboration with ISciences, a company that uses scientific and statistical datasets as
well as image interpretation to inform sustainable development. This paper is intended to
assist ISciences and decision-makers in assessing the present state of hydropower, and the
vulnerability of hydroelectric generation to climate change. We accomplished this by
investigating the role of hydropower in regional and national energy portfolios,
synthesizing case studies into a framework which plots dam characteristics alongside
climate change impacts, and researching the spatial distribution of dam types and
projected climate change impacts. The information and tools presented here will help
visualize current hydropower dependence, understand the complex relationship between
hydroelectric generation and climate change, and identify especially vulnerable sites for
further investigation.
For the purpose of this study, vulnerability refers to a hydropower generating facility’s
potential to have its electrical generation altered by climate change. Hydropower
production or hydroelectric generation will be discussed as installed capacity, output
wattage, and streamflow. Climate change impacts range from changing precipitation
patterns to glacial melting and increased occurrence of extreme weather events. This
report focuses on impacts related to changes in temperature and precipitation.
Hydroelectric dependency refers to the percent of total installed capacity dedicated to
hydropower. This is the percentage of a country’s energy portfolio that is made up of
hydropower. When we discuss effects on human livelihood, we are referring to the impact of
variations in hydroelectric production on communities and economies. We recognize that
both climate change and hydroelectric facilities have significant impacts on human
livelihoods irrespective of each other, many of which are far more drastic than variable
electricity availability. However, the scope of this report limits our discussion to those
impacts manifested as altered electricity availability from hydropower due to climate
change.
We began with a thorough review of the literature and available datasets to identify the
current global trends in hydropower and the climate change effects in each area of the
globe that are most critical to hydropower generation.
3
Figure 1: The Global Water System Project’s Global Reservoirs and Dams Database (GRanD).
Data: Global Water Systems Project, 2011.
This project utilized the Global Water System Project’s Global Reservoirs and Dams
Database (GRanD). 6 To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive global database of
dams and reservoirs; it was last updated in March 2011. It is important to note that not all
dams in the database are used for hydroelectric generation. While some are specifically
denoted as serving this function, many dams in the database are not classified by function.
Thus this study used a subset of the GRanD database, including all dams except those
specifically denoted as serving a function other than hydroelectric generation. The
database contains many useful fields including information regarding reservoir geometry,
reservoir storage capacity, and average discharge rates at the point of each dam.
Unfortunately, most dams in the GRanD database are not classified by dam type. To our
knowledge, the most comprehensive lists of dams by type are those found on Wikipedia. 7
To supplement the few cases in the GRanD database where dam type is specified, tables
listing prominent run-of-river and pumped storage dams were extracted from Wikipedia
and mapped in ARC GIS (Figures 5 and 9). While this information is somewhat helpful, it
illustrates the need for a more complete and detailed global dam database which includes
dam typology. Such a dataset would allow more definitive analysis of climate change
6
Lehner, B., R-Liermann, C., Revenga, C., Vörösmarty, C., Fekete, B., Crouzet, P., Döll, P. et al.: High resolution
mapping of the world’s reservoirs and dams for sustainable river flow management. Frontiers in Ecology and the
Environment. Source: GWSP Digital Water Atlas (2011). Map 81: GRanD Database (V1.1). Available online at
http://atlas.gwsp.org.
7
List of pumped-storage hydroelectric power stations. Wikipedia. Retrieved from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations; List of run-of-the-river
hydroelectric power stations. Wikipedia. Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_run-of-theriver_hydroelectric_power_stations. Note: the sources these lists reference can be found at the aforementioned
urls.
4
impacts to hydropower by allowing dam types to be spatially compared with climate
change impacts. We did not conduct such analysis due to our lack of confidence in the dam
type data.
Hydroelectric dependency data for the year 2008 (published in 2011) at the country level
were obtained from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). 8 These data provide
a summary of the total installed energy capacity for most countries broken down into
generation categories, including traditional hydroelectric and pumped storage. These data
were joined to a country shapefile in Arc GIS to create the choropleth maps (Figures 2, 17,
21, 24-28) in this report. We chose to use the most current country boundaries even
though these do not match the energy portfolio data. After consulting the GRanD database,
we noticed that all of the countries with no data in the EIA report have no dams, and thus
their installed capacity is most likely zero. However, due to possible inaccuracies in each
dataset, these were left classified as no data.
Figure 2: Hydropower Dependency. Percent of total installed energy capacity dedicated to
hydropower. Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2008.
8
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). International energy statistics. Retrieved
from http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm.
5
2. TYPOLOGY OF HYDROPOWER SCHEMES
To determine the impacts of climate change on hydropower facilities with differing
structural characteristics, we developed a typology of dams. We classified hydropower
schemes by type: pumped storage, reservoir, and run-of-river (Figure 3). 9 Of these, pumped
storage and reservoir hydropower may be evaluated in terms of the storage capacity and
surface area to volume ratio (SA:Vol) of their reservoirs. Electrical demand varies—peak
hours refer to times of the highest electrical demand, which vary by time of day and season,
while non-peak refers to times of relatively low electrical demand. 10
Figure 3: Types and characteristics of hydropower schemes. Reservoir surface area to volume
ratio (SA:Vol) and reservoir size are only applicable to reservoir and pumped storage schemes. For the
purpose of this report, the categories of ‘high,’ ‘low,’ ‘large,’ and ‘small’ are relative, not definite terms.
9
Egre, D., & Milewski, J. C. (2002). The diversity of hydropower projects. Energy Policy, 30(14), 1225-1230.
Ibid.
10
6
Pumped storage
Pumped storage hydropower stores
power as potential energy. This
power often comes from other
sources with relatively inflexible
generation schedules, such as wind
and nuclear. 11 Typically, electricity
from these other sources is used to
pump water up to a higher reservoir
during off-peak hours (Figure 4).
Then, during peak hours, the water is
released to the lower reservoir to
generate electricity. For the purpose of Figure 4: Pumped storage hydropower. From
this report, we are only concerned
Edenhofer et al. 2011.
with pure pumped storage, in which
the reservoirs are not connected to a river network. 12 Pumped storage is most commonly
found in North America, Europe, and Asia (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Location of pumped storage facilities around the world. Data from Wikipedia,“List of
pumped-storage hydroelectric power stations.”
11
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2011: Summary for Policymakers. In
IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation [O. Edenhofer, R.
Pichs‐Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S. Kadner, T. Zwickel, P. Eickemeier, G. Hansen, S.
Schlömer, C. von Stechow (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA.
12
Egre & Milewski. (2002). Ibid.
7
Reservoir
Most commonly, hydropower dams partially
block the water flow of a river and flood an
area upstream of the dam to create a
reservoir (Figure 6). 13 With the capacity to
store water, and therein potential energy,
reservoir dams are better able to withstand
fluctuations in river flow. Larger reservoirs
can buffer greater fluctuations in flow over a
longer time period to provide both base and
peak power generation, while smaller
reservoirs typically provide only base power
generation because of the impacts of variable
discharge rates. Reservoir dams are found
worldwide (Figure 7).
Figure 6: Reservoir hydropower. From
Edenhofer et al. 2011.
Figure 7: Location of reservoir hydropower facilities around the world. Data from GRaND.
13
Egre & Milewski. (2002). Ibid.
8
Run-of-river
Run-of-river dams utilize some or all
of a river’s flow to produce electricity
without impounding any significant
amount of water upstream (Figure 8).
As a result, run-of-river facilities have
no storage capacity to buffer
fluctuations in water flow. 14 These
facilities provide only base power
generation, lacking the ability to store
water for periods of peak demand. 15
Run-of-river hydropower is found
most commonly in North America,
Europe, and Asia (Figure 9).
Figure 8: Run-of-river hydropower. From
Edenhofer et al. 2011.
Figure 9: Location of run-of-river dams around the world. Data from Wikipedia, “List of run-ofthe-river hydroelectric power stations.”
14
Egre & Milewski. (2002). Ibid.
However, an upstream reservoir dam may act as storage for downstream run-of-river dams, restricting the flow
during off-peak periods and releasing more water during periods of peak electricity demand.
15
9
Dam Types on the Mekong River
The majority of the dams along the Mekong River are large scale reservoir dams, many of
them within the Upper Mekong Basin in China. The upstream control of river flow levels
caused by these dams creates tension between China and the downstream nations of
Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, all of which also rely on the Mekong
River for power, agriculture, and general water supply. 16 Currently, Cambodia and Laos
plan to build a series of hydroelectric dams on the mainstream section that would
“transform 55 percent of the downstream river into a reservoir, making it into a series of
impoundments with slow water movement.” 17 In Yunnan Province, China is already
installing a series of 8 reservoir dams, called the Mekong Cascade. This series of dams has
the potential to generate over 15,500 megawatts of electricity. 18 The Mekong Cascade has
enormous implications for
downstream hydrology and
has
“the
potential
to
exacerbate or ease both floods
and droughts,” 19 which are
likely to increase in this region
in the coming years due to
climate change. 20 Because of
their
storage
capacity,
reservoir dams can generate
electricity
somewhat
independently
of
river
discharge. The reservoir dams
control the flow
Hydroelectric dam along the Mekong River on the border of Cambodia which
and Vietnam. Credit: National Geographic.
patterns of the Mekong River
have significantly impacted the downstream hydrology, threatening fisheries and rice
paddies. 21 This example demonstrates some of the negative impacts associated with large
scale reservoir dams.
16
Lee, Yoolim. (2010). Ibid.
Ibid.
18
Richardson, Michael. (30 Sept. 2009). “River of Discord” The Third Pole. Retrieved from
http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/3268-River-of-discord.
19
Hirsch, Philip. (8 Feb 2011). “Cascade Effect” The Third Pole. Retrieved from
http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/4093-Cascade-effect.
20
Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.
21
Ives, M. (2011). Dam bad: Laos' plans to dam the Mekong could open the floodgates to further dams on the river.
Earth Island Journal, 26(3), 40.
17
10
3. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS PERTINENT TO HYDROPOWER
The flow chart below (Figure 10) should be used in conjunction with following maps
(Figures 11 to 15) to identify the types of climate change effects predicted in different parts
of the world. The flow chart is designed to show the complex ways in which the two most
important climate change effects, changes in precipitation and temperature, will impact
hydropower. 22 The maps show specific predicted climate change effects: global changes in
precipitation, temperature, specific humidity, and runoff, as well as current glaciated
watersheds of the world. The final boxes on the flow chart are the changes in river
discharge, which is what broadly determines how much electricity a given hydropower
facility can generate.
Figure 10: Flow chart of climate change effects. Red indicates effects that are typically detrimental
to hydroelectric production, and blue indicates effects that typically improve hydroelectric production
potential.
22
Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.
11
Change in precipitation
Figure 11: Predicted global change in mean annual precipitation, 2011-2030. Precipitation flux anomaly (kg·m-2·s-1). Data: IPCC DDC,
NCAR CCSM3 based on SRA2 scenario.
12
Change in temperature
Figure 12: Predicted global change in mean annual air temperature, 2011-2030. Air temperature anomaly in degrees Kelvin. Data:
IPCC DDC, NCAR CCSM3 based on SRA2 scenario.
13
Change in specific humidity
Figure 13: Predicted global change in specific humidity, 2011-2030. Specific Humidity Anomaly (ratio). Data: IPCC DDC,
CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2 based on SRA2 scenario.
14
Change in stream flow
Figure 14: Predicted global change in annual runoff, 2090-2099. Water availability in percent, relative to 1980-1999. These predictions
may not necessarily reflect changes over a shorter timescale. Map adapted from IPCC DDC.
15
Glaciation
Figure 15: Glaciated watersheds of the world. This map uses components of the USGS HYDRO1k Pfafstetter watershed delineation system
to represent the drainages of the world that contain glaciers. Dams located within those glaciated drainages are also shown. Data: GRanD
Dam Database 2011, USGS HYDRO1k 2011.
16
Climate Change in the Mekong River Basin
Scientists predict that South Asia will see an increase in precipitation as well as a slight
increase in temperature as a result of climate change. (Figures 11 and 12). The slight
increase in temperature paired with an increase in precipitation suggests that the
evaporation rates of the region will decrease slightly (Figure 13). The overall increase in
precipitation will provide more water to the rivers, increasing the potential for
hydropower generation (Figure 14). The increasing temperature in the Himalayas will
increase the glacial melt that feeds the Mekong River, increasing discharge for at least the
next several decades. However, once these glaciers have melted, there will be a decline in
Mekong River discharge, shown in Figure 10. South Asia’s climate and hydrological cycles
are significantly impacted by
the monsoon, which has
already been altered by
climate
change. 23
The
monsoon delivers around 75
percent of the regions
precipitation during roughly
three months. 24 The beginning
of the monsoon is predicted to
arrive later in the year,
making the dry season longer
and increasing the number of
droughts. 25 Similarly, there
will be an increase in the
severity of rainfall events as
well as storms, causing overall increased temporal variability in water supply. 26 The
disparate distribution of precipitation timing in this area causes significant variations in
the Mekong River’s discharge. All of these various climate change impacts are
interconnected and have significant repercussions for hydropower. As climate change
impacts intensify, this variation will be exacerbated, making it more difficult for
hydropower facilities along the Mekong River to predict river discharge and to generate an
even supply of power.
A Cambodian woman swims her cows to dry ground during the
worst flooding on the Mekong River in at least 100 years during the
summer of 2008.
23
Weakened monsoon season predicted for South Asia, due to rising temperatures. (27 Feb. 2009). Science Daily.
Retrieved from http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090227112307.htm.
24
Ibid.
25
Ibid.
26
McNally, A. (2009). Hydropower and sustainability: Resilience and vulnerability in China's powersheds. Journal of
Environmental Management, 90, S286-S293.
17
4. ILLUSTRATED FRAMEWORK OF CLIMATE CHANGE AS IT AFFECTS
HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION
To understand how climate change will affect hydropower production, it is necessary to
consider the ways in which characteristics of hydropower facilities affect their
vulnerability to climate change. To explain these interactions, we created an illustrated
framework that shows relative changes in generation capacity due to climate change.
Climate change effects are located along the x-axis and the type and characteristics of
hydropower schemes along the y-axis (Figure 16).
18
Figure 16: Framework of climate change effects on different characteristics of hydropower
schemes. Climate change impacts, as outlined in Chapter 3, are shown along the x-axis, and
hydropower characteristics, as outlined in Chapter 2, are shown down the y-axis. Discharge, temporal
variability, and glacial melt do not apply to pure pumped storage, which is not connected to a river
network. Only evaporation is applicable to reservoir surface area to volume ratio (SA:Vol).
19
Applying our Illustrated Framework to the Mekong River
When creating our illustrated
framework (Figure 16), we
consider the climate change
impacts which most
significantly impact
hydropower generation in
relation to different dam
characteristics. On the Mekong
River, we can see how
different hydropower facilities
in this area are expected to be
affected by the climate change
impacts projected for this
region. As mentioned
previously, most hydropower
facilities along the Mekong
River are large-scale reservoir
dams. By locating this facility
type on the y-axis of the diagram, you can assess how this type of hydropower facility will
be affected by the climate change impacts illustrated by our maps and described in Chapter
3. If a government or other party was interested in developing a hydropower facility along
the Mekong River, as many are, they could also use this diagram to predict what type of
dam would be least vulnerable to certain regional climate change impacts. Reading this
illustrated framework, we can predict that hydropower on the Mekong River will most
likely not suffer a significant decrease in generation capacity due to climate change impacts
in the short term.
20
Definitions of variables included in our illustrated framework
The following sections explain in detail how each of the climate change effects covered in
our framework—evaporation, discharge, temporal variability, and glacial melt—will
impact the vulnerability of certain hydropower facilities and reservoir characteristics.
Evaporation
Increased evaporation will reduce electricity generation for all types of dams, but these
effects will be most drastic for those with reservoirs. Due to the direct relationship
between the surface area of a body of water and its rate of evaporation, the geometry of
reservoirs determines how susceptible they are to evaporation. 27 Reservoirs with higher
surface area to volume ratios are more vulnerable to losing capacity from evaporation,
which reduces a facility’s power production capacity. 28 Retrofitting reservoirs to make
them deeper with a smaller surface area would reduce evaporation, however it is very
expensive. 29 Planned projects should take reservoir shape into consideration in their
design in order to reduce evaporation and maximize power potential. Reservoir size is
important to evaporation as well, as smaller reservoirs will be more at risk to losing
greater proportions of their volume, as reflected in our illustrated framework.
Discharge
Though an increase in amount of annual river discharge can sometimes simply translate to
an increase in hydropower production, fluctuations in discharge affect different types of
facilities differently. Run-of-river dams, for example, may be more vulnerable to decreased
amounts of discharge because they are directly dependent on the river’s flow, whereas
reservoir dams may be able to compensate better for decreased amounts of water by
adapting the management plan for the reservoir volume. In our diagram, discharge refers
to the annual discharge, which can be directly correlated to changes in precipitation. It does
not address other issues such as temporal variability, which we account for in another
section.
Temporal variability
Climate change will cause increased temporal variability of precipitation events. This will
pose significant problems for hydroelectric generation. These impacts will result in more
severe and frequent floods and droughts. Seasonal offsets, or the altering timing and
27
D.L. McJannet, I.T. Webster, M.P. Stenson, B.S. Sherman. (2008). Estimating open water evaporation for the
Murray-Darling Basin. Retrieved from
http://www.clw.csiro.au/publications/waterforahealthycountry/mdbsy/technical/U-OpenWaterEvaporation.pdf.
28
Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.
29
McJannet et al. (2008).Ibid.
21
magnitude of precipitation for traditional rainy and dry seasons and peak snowmelt, will
occur as well. 30 By delivering water supply at varied and unpredictable times, temporal
variability negatively impacts hydroelectric production. However, it impacts reservoir
dams less than run-of-river facilities because reservoir dams have the capacity to store
water, thereby accounting for these variations in reservoir volume.
Flooding
Dams can control the flood pulse of a river and help buffer downstream areas from
dangerous impacts. 31 Flooding has the potential to increase river flows and
hydropower generation as long as the excess river flow level remains within the
dam’s reservoir capacity. However, in extreme cases, floods can also prove
destructive to dams. The large sediment and debris loads carried by floodwaters
can block dam spillways and powerful masses of water can damage important
structural components. 32 The extent to which flooding is beneficial or detrimental
depends heavily of the size of the dam’s reservoir.
Droughts
Droughts may present the most obvious threat to hydroelectric generation, as they
reduce the amount of water available to produce electricity. Many regions have
experienced droughts in the last several decades that greatly reduced energy
production, reducing up to half of their electrical production capacity in some
cases. 33 A 2009 study in the western United States, which modeled the impact of
drought scenarios on electricity generation, found that hydroelectric generation
would be reduced by 30 percent. 34 Droughts in areas exclusively dependent
hydropower for electricity generation would face blackouts in some drought
senarios. 35
30
Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.
Hauenstein, W. (2005). Hydropower and Climate Change - A Reciprocal Relation: Institutional Energy Issues in
Switzerland. Mountain Research and Development, 25, 321-325.
32
Ibid.
33
Sailor D.J., Muñoz J.R. (1997). Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the USA—
methodology and results for eight states. Energy 22:987–998;
Mukheibir, P. (2007). Possible climate change impacts on large hydroelectricity
schemes in southern Africa. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 18(1), 4. ;
Waylen, P. (2008). Changing rainfall inputs in the Volta basin: Implications for water sharing in Ghana. GeoJournal,
71(4), 201-210.
34
National Energy Technology Laboratory. (2009). An Analysis of the Effects of Drought Conditions on Electric
Power Generation in the Western United States. Retrieved from http://www.netl.doe.gov.
35
Ibid.
31
22
Seasonal offset
The seasonality of precipitation causes variability in hydroelectric generation.
Regions with distinct seasonal rain cycles and snowmelt seasons typically
experience fluctuations in generation due to precipitation’s influence on flow.
Munoz and Sailor note that “Under global warming, the existent difference between
the generation in fall-winter and spring-summer will increase.” 36 Thus power
production will indeed increase relative to current rates during part of the year;
however, this will be counteracted by sharp decreases in other months. The
magnitude of climate change induced precipitation shifts will vary greatly by season.
In some cases precipitation is projected to be reduced twice as much in one season
while in other regions, wet seasons may become drier and the dry seasons may
become wetter. 37
Glacial melt
Glaciated regions of the world act as natural water towers that provide water to
downstream areas. As glaciers continue to retreat in response to climate change 38, runoff to
rivers will initially increase in the short-term due to the large volumes of stored ice melting
away. Eventually these stores of ice may disappear entirely, however, resulting in a longterm decreases in annual runoff and stream discharge. 39
36
Sailor and Muñoz. (1997). Ibid.
Harrison, G. P., & Whittington, H. (2002). Susceptibility of the Batoka Gorge hydroelectric scheme to climate
change. Journal of Hydrology, 264(1-4), 230-241.;
Hauenstein, W. (2005). Ibid.
38
Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.
39
Huss, M. (2011). Present and future contribution of glacier storage change to runoff from macroscale drainage
basins in Europe. Water Resources Research, 47 (7).
37
23
5. REGIONAL FINDINGS
We divided the globe regionally into the Middle East, Asia, Africa, Oceania, Europe, North
America and South America. Though neither river systems nor climate change affects are
constrained by manmade political boundaries, many case studies and data sets are. Our
regional findings provided a preliminary basis for collecting information, which we then
synthesized to create our illustrated framework. This report integrates information from
each region to form the basis of our analysis. Though climate change impacts will be
specific to certain areas, our regional findings guided our conclusion of which climate
change impacts will most significantly impact hydropower generation across the globe.
Each regional study provides valuable insight into how different types of dam
characteristics will be most affected by different types of climate change impacts. While
each region of the globe will be impacted by climate change, the severity and type of these
impacts will vary significantly. It is also important to mention that each region of the globe
faces unique political, social and economic factors that will determine how they will be able
to respond to climate change impacts on hydropower generation.
24
North America
Magnitude of dependence on hydropower
The United States and Canada rank among the top four largest hydroelectricity producers
in the world. 40 Mexico is considerably less developed with regards to hydropower, but has
some very large dams currently operational and the potential for additional large- and
small-scale dams to be constructed (Figure 17).
Figure 17: North American hydropower dependence. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated
to hydropower. Data: US Energy Information Administration, 2008.
40
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). International energy statistics.
25
Region
North America
Canada
Mexico
United States
2008 Total Electricity
Generation (billion
kilowatt-hours)
4,998.18
632.22
245.52
4,119.39
2008 Hydroelectricity
Generation (billion
kilowatt-hours)
672.26
378.64
38.79
254.83
Percent Hydro
Production
13.5
60
15.8
6.2
Figure 18. North American hydroelectric production by country. Data: U.S. Energy Information
Administration, International energy statistics, 2011.
As Figure 18 depicts, Canada is the hydroelectric powerhouse of North America.
Considering that 60 percent of its installed electricity generating capacity come from
hydropower, Canada is very dependent on this resource, both for its own use and for
exportation. 41 In 2008, hydropower contributed 26.4 percent of Canada’s total energy
consumption, coming in a close second to petroleum’s 31.3 percent contribution. In 2009,
Canada exported 51.1 BKWh of electricity to the United States, yielding them a net export
of 33.6 BKWh in electric power. 42 On a smaller scale, the provinces in which most of
Canada’s installed hydropower facilities are located are even more dependent on this
resource.
The U.S., like Canada, produces hundreds of billions of kilowatt-hours in hydroelectricity
every year, yet this makes up only 6.2 percent of its total electricity generation. 43 Due to its
reliance on other sources of energy (mostly conventional fossil fuels like coal, petroleum,
and natural gas), the U.S. is not as dependent on hydropower production as Canada.
However, as noted above, there is considerable power sharing between the U.S. and
Canada, so any fluctuations in Canada’s hydropower output could affect the U.S. In addition,
there are some regions in the U.S. that are vastly more dependent on hydroelectricity than
the country is as a whole—for example, the Pacific Northwest, which relies on hydro for
about 75 percent of its electricity.
In Mexico, petroleum comprises 58 percent of energy consumption. Hydroelectricity
represents only 5 percent of the country’s total energy consumption, though hydropower is
Mexico’s primary renewable resource. 44 Lacking the natural and economic resources that
the U.S. and Canada both have to develop hydropower on a larger scale, Mexico is not as
reliant on it as the other two North American nations.
41
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid.
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011). Canada energy data, statistics and analysis – oil, gas, electricity,
coal.
43
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid.
44
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011). Mexico.
42
26
Type and distribution of hydropower
Canada has a long hydroelectric history and as such has developed a mixed infrastructure
of both reservoir and run-of-river dams. However, the country relies mostly on large
reservoir dams, like the behemoth 15,000 MW La Grande system located in Quebec, for the
bulk of its electricity production. Many of Canada’s hydroelectric entities are located in the
provinces of Quebec or in British Columbia. 45 The most significant of these projects is the
Quebec state-owned utility Hydro-Quebec. With 60 operating facilities and a total capacity
of 36,671 MW, it is the world’s largest hydroelectricity producer. 46 Despite its abundance
of reservoir and run-of-river projects, Canada has developed few pumped storage facilities.
Figure 19. 2010 capacity of U.S. hydroelectric generators, by initial year of operation. From U.S.
Energy Information Administration, Hydropower has a long history in the United States, 2011.
The U.S. is similarly mature in its hydropower development. As seen in Figure 19, U.S.
hydroelectric capacity really began in the 1930’s with Tennessee Valley Authority projects,
boomed between 1950 and 1980, and has slowed down since then. 47 Most river resources
in the U.S. that are capable of supporting large hydroelectric infrastructure have already
been developed as reservoir dams. Many of the largest of these facilities, like the 6,809 MW
Grand Coulee Dam in Washington and the 2,080 MW Hoover Dam in Arizona and Nevada,
are located in the west and northwest parts of the nation. Over half of the U.S. hydroelectric
capacity is located in Washington, Oregon, and California. 48,49 The U.S. has also developed a
number of run-of-river hydroelectric facilities. The largest of these, the 2,620 MW Chief
Joseph Dam in Washington, is the second most productive hydroelectric station in the
45
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011). Ibid.
Hydro-Quebec. (2011). Annual Report 2010.
47
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011b). Hydropower has a long history in the United States.
48
Ibid.
49
Markoff, M. S., & Cullen, A. C. (2008). Impact of climate change on Pacific Northwest hydropower. Climatic
Change, 87(3), 451-469.
46
27
country. Pumped storage is also a large part of the U.S.’s electricity production. The U.S. is
second only to Japan in pumped storage hydroelectricity production and has about three
times the capacity of the next most productive nation, Italy. In 2009, the U.S. boasted a total
pumped storage capacity of 21.86 mKW. 50
Mexico, while more reliant on hydropower as a source of electricity than the U.S., has not
developed nearly as much infrastructure. There are some large reservoir dams in
operation, including the 2,400 MW Manuel Moreno Torres in Chiapas, but fewer small-scale
and run-of-river projects, and no pumped storage facilities at all. 51 Most of Mexico’s current
hydropower development is situated in the central or northwestern parts of the country.
Future hydropower development
The United States and Canada have similar hydropower outlooks, since most of their highcapacity river systems have already been harnessed. They must look towards means other
than the construction of new dams to increase hydropower capacity. This is further
complicated by the fact that hydro development in these countries is now more than ever
restricted by complicated regulatory procedures and environmental opposition, due to a
growing understanding of the ecological and social harms that can result from unchecked
projects. 52 Therefore, the path forward will most likely involve increasing the capacity of
current facilities through additions and improved technology, promoting new small hydro
like run-of-river, and adding hydroelectric capabilities onto existing but untapped dams.
Improvements in turbine efficiency can improve station operating capacity for a relatively
low cost, especially considering the average lifetime for a U.S. turbine exceeds 50 years, and
there is great potential in the refitting of unused facilities as well—of the 75,200 American
dams in place, only 2,744 are being used for hydroelectric production. 53, 54
Mexico has more freedom to develop large dams than the U.S. or Canada, but, as mentioned
before, less economic power to do so. Therefore, Mexico will most likely see large reservoir
dams constructed at a slower pace than small hydro or pumped storage facilities in the
near future. The technically feasible hydroelectric potential was estimated in 1996 to be
50
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid.
International Energy Agency. (2011b). Mexico. Retrieved from http://www.small-hydro.com/
index.cfm?Fuseaction=countries.country&Country_ID=53.
52
International Energy Agency. (2011). United States of America. Retrieved from http://www.small-hydro.com/
index.cfm?Fuseaction=countries.country&Country_ID=82.
53
Hayes, S. J. (2001). Interest surges forward in North American hydropower: interest in hydroelectric power is
flowing once again, thanks not only to high natural-gas prices and regional electricity shortages, but also to new
technologies that boost performance and mitigate environmental impact. Power 145(4), 32-42.
54
International Energy Agency. (2011). Ibid.
51
28
45,000 GWh/year and only about 60 percent of this has been exploited, so the potential for
more development certainly exists. 55
Climate change impacts and implications for hydropower
Quebec, the heartland of Canada’s hydroelectricity production, is expected to see a longterm increase in both mean annual precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, winter
precipitation is expected to increase significantly more than spring or summer-autumn
precipitation. In the short-term, the increased temperatures are expected to decrease
runoff in the summer-autumn months until 2030, when the increased precipitation will set
runoff amounts on an upwards trajectory. 56 The changing climate is also predicted to
exacerbate extreme weather events, meaning that ice storms, like the one in 1998 that
prevented Hydro-Quebec power from reaching Vermont for over a month, could become
more of an issue. 57
The West and Pacific Northwest of the United States is expected to see increased
temperatures year-round, leading to less precipitation in the summer months and more
precipitation—in the form of rain as well as snow—in the winter months. Increased
temperatures are already causing snowpack to melt earlier in the year, and this trend is
expected to continue. 58 More winter precipitation, earlier snowmelts, and less summer
precipitation combine to yield an earlier powerful peak flow which can flood out smaller
dams, followed by drought conditions in the summer when hydroelectricity is needed most
to power air conditioning units across the region. This has already taken its toll in recent
years on some hydropower facilities in the Pacific Northwest. 59
Mexico is expected to see severe temperature increases in the future due to climate change,
with precipitation trends being less predictable. Aquifer recharge will be hindered and
desertification will be more common. 60 This would be particularly devastating in the north
and northwest regions which already have a semiarid climate. In addition, Mexico, already
recognized as a natural disaster-prone country, is expected to suffer more extreme weather
events due to climate change. 61
55
International Energy Agency. (2011b). Ibid.
Minville, M., Brissette, F., Krau, S., & Leconte, R. (2009). Adaptation to climate change in the management of a
Canadian water-resources system exploited for hydropower. Water Resources Management, 23(14), 2965-2986.
57
Vermont Energy Partnership. (2005). Vermont’s Energy Future: The Hydro-Quebec Factor. Retrieved from
http://www.vtep.org/documents/ISSUESBRIEF-Hydro-Quebec09-19-05.pdf.
58
Markoff, M. S., & Cullen, A. C. (2008). Ibid.
59
Power Markets Week. (2005). With drought, northwestern hydropower plants face another potentially risky
year. Power Markets Week, 10.
60
Boyd, R., & Ibarrarán, M. E. (2009). Extreme climate events and adaptation: An exploratory analysis of drought in
Mexico. Environment and Development Economics, 14(3), 371-395.
61
Ibid.
56
29
The expected long-term increase of annual and seasonal precipitation in parts of Canada
has the capacity to increase hydroelectric output in those areas. One study in the Peribonka
River watershed in Quebec, Canada predicted mean annual hydropower to decrease by 1.8
percent between 2010-2039 (due to initial early peak flows and lack of summer
precipitation) and subsequently increase by 9.3 percent and 18.3 percent during 20402069 and 2070-2099 respectively (due to steadily increasing precipitation amounts). 62 This
initial decrease in production is expected to hit run-of-river dams harder than reservoir
dams, as they are unable to absorb the impact of low summer flows through storage of
river water from earlier in the year. Also, while the long-term prognosis for hydroelectric
production is good, there are a couple of predicted negative impacts: firstly, the increased
volatility of discharge due to more frequent extreme events and changing seasonal patterns
is expected to lower the reliability of reservoirs to store water efficiently, resulting in more
unproductive overspill; secondly, as can be seen in Figure 20, which analyzes four of the
dams in the Peribonka River basin, peak flows are expected to come earlier and with less
discharge. 63
Figure 20: Predicted monthly discharge changes for four dams on the Peribonka River in
Quebec, Canada. From Minville et al., 2009.
62
63
Minville, M., Brissette, F., Krau, S., & Leconte, R. (2009). Ibid.
Ibid.
30
The predicted increased temperature and potential decreased rainfall that the Pacific
Northwest of the United States is expected to see will most likely have a negative effect on
mean annual discharge, and therefore hydroelectric production in the region. Some
predictions forecast a 40 percent loss in production by 2080. 64 Earlier snowmelts will shift
seasonal peak flow time thereby hurting hydroelectric production, especially during the
summer when it’s needed most. 65
In the dry north and northwestern parts of Mexico, vulnerability of hydroelectric plants to
drought is extremely high, and they stand to suffer the most in production loss if water
sources dry up and become less reliable. If temperatures increase significantly, though,
droughts could threaten hydroelectric plant production in all parts of the country. 66
Effects on human livelihood
Canada and, even more so, the United States have sufficient economic security and
diversified energy portfolios to supplement their hydroelectric production if it becomes
negatively impacted by climate change. Some regions are certainly more in danger than
others, but on the whole neither country will likely see any catastrophic blackouts. The
western United States may have to deal with another challenge, however: the adequate
provision of water to both municipalities and industries. With temperatures predicted to
increase in the region, droughts will become more frequent and competition for equitable
water usage will become fiercer. This competition will most likely be the greatest threat to
Mexico’s well-being, especially considering most of the population lives in the center, north,
and northwest parts of the country where water is already scarce. Also, Mexico lacks the
wealth to fund effective climate change adaption policies, meaning areas that receive the
majority of their power from hydroelectric plants may be in danger of blackouts if the
output of those plants is hindered. 67
64
Markoff, M. S., & Cullen, A. C. (2008). Ibid.
Power Markets Week. (2005). Ibid.
66
Boyd, R., & Ibarrarán, M. E. (2009). Ibid.
67
Boyd, R., & Ibarrarán, M. E. (2009). Ibid.
65
31
Europe
Magnitude of dependence on hydropower
Figure 21: European hydropower dependence. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to
hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.
Hydropower accounts for approximately 19 percent of Europe’s total installed electric
capacity. 68 Within Europe, however, hydropower dependence ranges anywhere from 0 to
99 percent of individual countries’ energy production portfolios (Figure 21). 69 This
variation stems not only from differences in topography and hydrology across the region,
but also from a number of economic, social, and political factors that have influenced
development.
68
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid.
Lehner, B., Czisch, G., & Vassolo, S. (2005). The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe:
A model-based analysis. Energy Policy, 33(7), 839-855.
69
32
Type and distribution of hydropower
The varied geography of Europe has allowed for a broad range of hydropower types across
different parts of the region, including pumped storage, run-of-river, and reservoir facilities
at all scales. There is a high concentration of reservoir dams in mountainous and glaciated
areas, including the Alps, the Pyrenees, and Norway (Figure 22). Run-of-river dams are
typically found at lower elevations, where the flatter terrain is less suitable for reservoirs. 70
Pumped storage hydropower, which is developed in conjunction with other power
generation sources as a means of storing surplus energy produced at times of off-peak
usage, is found primarily in Western Europe.
Figure 22: Reservoir and run-of-river hydropower stations in Europe. Map from Lehner et al.
2005.
70
Hauenstein, W. (2005). Ibid
33
Within Europe, Norway leads hydropower production with over 120 TWh generated
annually. 71 This equates to about 99 percent of the country’s electricity generation, and
nearly 20 percent of total hydropower production in Europe (excluding Russia). Because
of its mountainous terrain, Norway is well suited for large reservoirs that can balance longterm seasonal variations in flow to provide relatively high and stable production
capacities. 72 Sweden, in contrast, generates approximately 70 TWh per year, or roughly
half of its total electricity generation, from hydropower. This power comes mostly from
run-of river facilities, which are susceptible to temporal flow variability, so the remainder
of Sweden’s electricity production comes from nuclear power, a more stable source. 73
Norway and Sweden have joined Finland and Denmark, which use mostly fossil fuels and
little hydropower, in an energy union with an integrated wholesale market. 74 Although
these four countries have very different energy portfolios, their electricity markets are
interconnected to balance out prices and supply and demand fluctuations, and thus their
vulnerabilities to climate change will be similarly intertwined.
The Alps, which stretch across France, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, and Austria, provide
much of the changes in topography that give Western Europe its hydropower potential and
contain the origins of several major rivers that traverse the continent. 75 Within the
mountain range, high-head dams with relatively large reservoirs offer a seasonally
stabilized source of electricity, as well as flood control in the summer months. 76 Of these
Alpine countries, Switzerland is most dependent on hydropower, producing 38 TWh
annually, or 58 percent of its total electricity generation. 77 As of 1998, Switzerland had the
highest electricity production per total country surface area in the world. 78 This density of
development does not come without a cost—in 2001, 80 percent of Switzerland’s alpine
rivers were affected by damming. 79
Hydropower production continues much farther downstream from the glaciers of
Switzerland along the Rhone, Rhine, Po, and Danube Rivers, stretching to the
Mediterranean, North, Adriatic, and Black Seas, respectively. 80 In these lower-elevation
71
Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid.
Killingtveit, A. (2010). Hydro reaches the PEAK. International Water Power & Dam Construction, 30-32.
73
Cherry, J., Cullen, H., Visbeck, M., Small, A., & Uvo, C. (2005). Impacts of the North Atlantic oscillation on
Scandinavian hydropower production and energy markets. Water Resources Management, 19(6), 673-691.
74
Amundsen, E. S., & Bergman, L. (2007). Integration of multiple national markets for electricity: The case of
Norway and Sweden. Energy Policy, 35(6), 3383-3394.
75
Huss, M. (2011). Ibid.
76
Meile, T., Boillat, J. & Schleiss, A. J. (2010). Hydropeaking indicators for characterization of the upper-Rhone river
in Switzerland. Aquatic Sciences, 73(1), 171-182.
77
Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid.
78
Truffer, B., Markard, J., Bratrich, C., & Wehrli, B. (2001). Green electricity from alpine hydropower plants.
Mountain Research and Development, 21(1), 19-24.
79
Ibid.
80
Huss, M. (2011). Ibid.
72
34
areas, the prevalence of run-of-river dams increases due to the flatter topography, though
reservoir dams are still utilized as well. For example, the Iron Gates dam on the Danube at
the border of Romania and Serbia is the largest in Europe, both in terms of reservoir size
and production capacity. 81 Though the glaciated areas of the Alps make up less than one
percent of the total area of these rivers’ drainage basins, they provide a disproportionately
large contribution to the flow at the mouth of the river—anywhere from 3 to 25 percent,
depending on the river and the precipitation in a given year. 82 Although glacial meltwater’s
proportion of the total flow decreases with greater distance from glaciers due to input from
other runoff within the basin, it is important to recognize the contribution of glaciers to
downstream flow when considering the impacts of climate change.
Future hydropower development
Although the European Union is currently pushing for increased renewable energy
production within the region, minimal growth is expected in the hydropower sector in the
coming decades. 83 In 2009, 390 MW of new hydropower production capacity were
installed, amounting to only 1.4 percent of the total new electric capacity in the EU. 84 In
western Europe, most of the hydropower potential has already been captured—relatively
few economically and politically viable dam sites remain. 85 Although there is remaining
hydropower capacity in northern Europe, strong opposition to new dams has halted
development. In eastern Europe and western Russia, in contrast, many opportunities for
hydropower projects remain, but economic difficulties have inhibited their development
thus far. In the near future, hydropower development in these countries will likely consist
of only renovations or updates to existing dams unless these economic barriers are
overcome.
Despite these doubts, there is some evidence of continued and growing interest in new
hydropower development in Europe. A 2010 Deutsche Bank report, “Hydropower in
Europe: The Alps, Scandinavia and South-eastern Europe – rich in opportunities,”
encourages future investment in hydropower, emphasizing that only 64 percent of the
region’s economically viable potential has been tapped. 86 Additionally, growth in wind
power, which made up nearly 40 percent of new electric capacity in the EU in 2009, will
likely spur the development of more pumped-storage capacity. 87 Pumped-storage facilities,
81
Lehner et al. (2011). Ibid.
Huss, M. (2011). Ibid.
83
Killingtveit. (2010). Ibid.
84
Bloem, H., Monforti-Ferrario, F., Szabo, M., & Jäger-Waldau, A. (2010). Renewable Energy Snapshots 2010.
European Commission's Institute for Energy.
85
Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid.
86
Auer, J. (2010). Hydropower in Europe: The Alps, Scandinavia and Southeastern Europe - Rich in Opportunities.
Deutsche Bank Research.
87
Bloem et al. (2010). Ibid.
82
35
either standalone or incorporated into existing reservoirs, would harness surplus wind
power during off-peak hours to pump water up into reservoirs, and then use this stored
water for hydropower production during times of peak load. Norway is particularly suited
for pumped-storage development—its reservoirs can store 84TWh of potential energy,
equivalent to 70 percent of their average annual inflow or half of the total storage capacity
in Europe. 88
Climate change impacts and implications for hydropower
Although predictions vary depending on the model, in general water availability is likely to
increase across northern Europe and decrease in southern and southeastern Europe over
the next several decades (Figure 23). 89 How these widespread trends will effect
hydropower production in the countries and regions within Europe depends on specific
changes in flow regime and characteristics of existing hydropower development.
Figure 23: Predicted changes in river discharge across Europe by two models, for
2020s and 2070s. Map from Lehner et al. 2005.
88
89
Killingtveit. (2010). Ibid.
Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid.
36
In south and southeastern Europe, decreased precipitation and increased likelihood of
droughts will lead to reduced water availability in 2070, with a corresponding decline in
hydropower production potential. 90 Within these areas, Portugal, Spain, Ukraine, and
Bulgaria will be most severely affected, with decreases in developed production potential
of 20 to 50 percent. 91 In the short-term, glacially fed rivers, such as those originating in the
Alps and Pyrenees, will likely see increases in summer discharge as glaciers melt faster
than they regenerate. Already, rivers in the Alps are seeing 13 percent increases in flow in
August compared to two decades ago, and many glaciers have diminished significantly. 92 In
the long-term, the contribution of these retreating glaciers to river flow will decrease, by 15
to 45 percent by the end of this century. 93
Although Scandinavia and northern Russia are predicted to see increased water
availability, this change does not necessarily translate to a direct, equivalent increase in
hydropower production. Depending on the timing of precipitation events and the resulting
discharge, as well as the storage capacity of a dam, a site that is projected to experience
greater discharge volume could actually see lowered power production potential because
of more extreme high and low flows. 94 Run-of-river dams, of which there are many in
Sweden, are particularly susceptible to changes in flow pattern because of their inability to
store discharge that exceeds maximum production capacity. Thus, an analysis of the
impacts of climate change on hydropower in northern Europe must examine not only
production capacity and changing water availability, but also the type of hydropower
facilities.
In Europe, many dammed rivers cross international boundaries, and the electricity market
is interconnected by energy unions—the Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of
Electricity (UCTE), for example, connects much of western and southeastern Europe. 95
Thus, changes in runoff and hydropower production within individual countries or regions
should not simply be considered in isolation. Overall across Europe, developed
hydropower potential is predicted to decrease 7 to 12 percent by the year 2070. 96 These
decreases must also be considered within a broader context of increased water and
electricity usage, which will put further strain on the region’s rivers and dams.
90
Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid.
Ibid.
92
Huss, M. (2011). Ibid.
93
Ibid.
94
Lehner et al. (2005). Ibid.
95
Ibid.
96
Ibid.
91
37
Effects on human livelihood
Although Europe is predicted to see slight decreases in hydropower production, on
average, it is unlikely that it will face severe detrimental effects on human livelihood as a
result. Energy unions within the region, with diversified sources of electricity, should help
the countries that will be most affected, like Switzerland, cope with decreased electricity
production from hydropower. Additionally, some of the most dependent countries, like
Norway, are predicted to experience increased hydropower production potential.
38
South America
Magnitude of dependence on hydropower
Figure 24: Latin American hydropower dependence. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated
to hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.
Of all of the regions in the world, Latin America is one of the most reliant on hydropower
for its energy production. Installed hydropower capacity in Latin America has the potential
to produce approximately 140,000MW, or between 50-60 percent of the region’s energy
demands. 97 All nations in Latin America rely significantly on hydropower as an important
energy resource (Figure 24). Brazil, Paraguay, Venezuela, and Costa Rica are most reliant
on hydropower, which provides over 80 percent of their electricity supply. 98 Although the
region already relies heavily on hydropower, some experts predict that hydropower could
supply over 90 percent of the entire region’s energy. 99 Hydroelectric projects tend to be
97
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011). Ibid.
Ibid.
99
Castano, I. (2011). Hydroelectricity, biofuels to lead latam renewables growth. Renewable Energy World.
98
39
accepted by the general public of Latin America which views hydropower as a good use of
the abundant renewable resources of Latin America’s great and powerful river systems.
Type and distribution of hydropower
Large-scale, reservoir dams are the technology of choice when it comes to hydropower
stations in Latin America. Three of the world’s four largest hydroelectric projects, in terms
of power generating capacity, are located in Latin America. Thanks to large foreign
investments, the expertise of international engineering companies, the general conception
that large-scale hydropower development is a good thing for the region, and privately and
publically shared profits from most hydroelectric projects, large-scale hydropower
dominates Latin America.
The Itaipu Hydroelectric Project located on the Paraná River, generates enough electricity
to power 16.4 percent of Brazil and 71.3 percent of Paraguay simultaneously when running
at maximum efficiency. 100, 101 Other large-scale dams in Brazil are located along the Uatuma,
Grande, Sao Paulo, and Madeira Rivers. The Guri Dam on the Orinoco River supplies
Venezuela with 73 percent of its electricity needs as well as fulfilling some needs of
neighboring Columbia and Brazil. The Tucuruí Dam in Brazil is the fourth largest
hydroelectric project in the world and supplies Brazil with 10 percent of its electricity
demands. 102 Venezuela receives 70 percent of its energy from three plants on the Caroni
River. 103 Peru recently completed the 600MW Limon Dam on the Huancabamba River
which, beyond producing electricity, will also divert 2 billion cubic meters of Amazonian
water to the northwestern Peruvian desert in a 20km tunnel through the Andes. 104 Costa
Rica receives over 70 percent of its power from the Lake Arenal Dam. Argentina has large
hydroelectric dams on the Limay, Dolores, Los Molinos, Uruguay, San Roque, and Paraná
Rivers. These examples reveal that some nations are highly dependent not just on
hydropower in general, but on single dams. This focused reliance has the potential to
amplify vulnerability.
Future hydropower development
Though countries in Latin America have attempted to diversify their energy portfolios in
recent years, almost every country in Latin America plans to continue expansion of their
100
Freitas, M. A. V. (2009). Vulnerability to climate change and water management: Hydropower generation in
Brazil. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment,124, 217-226.
101
Itaipu Binacional. (2011). Energy. Retrieved from http://www.itaipu.gov.br/en/energy/energy.
102
Encyclopedia Britannica. (2011). Guri dam. In Encyclopedia Britannica Online Academic Edition. ed.
Encyclopedia Britannica Inc.
103
Ray, R. W. (2009). A review of the hot hydro market in Latin America. HydroWorld, 17(9).
104
Andina. (2009). Peru builds 20km water tunnel in Lambayaeque.
40
hydropower potential. 105 Brazil has the largest reserve of surface freshwater on the
planet—just less than 20 percent of the global supply—with most of that found in the
relatively undeveloped regions of the Amazon River. 106 Argentina and Chile share the
world’s third largest store of ice as well as all of the rivers that compose the region of
Patagonia. The northwestern sector of South America—including Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador,
and Colombia—is just starting to discover its hydropower potential thanks to recent
energy crises and the exploding demand for electricity fueled by a rapidly growing middle
class. 107
Brazil currently has plans or is in the process of constructing 25,000MW of new
hydropower projects on the Xingu, Madeira, Tapajos, and Tocantins Rivers—all tributaries
of the Amazon River—in order to fulfill the increasing electricity demands of the growing
middle class. 108 The 11,000MW Belo Monte hydroelectric project in northern Brazil will
begin operating sometime in 2014. 109 The construction of the Santo Antonio complex on the
Madeira River should be complete sometime in 2012. 110
In Ecuador, the projected Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric facility on the Guayllabamba
River is projected to supply the country with 70 percent of its electricity, thereby providing
power to the country which formerly purchased its electricity from neighboring Peru and
Colombia. Venezuela predicts that it needs 1,000MW of new installed capacity each year
over the next decade to keep up with growing demand; it plans to meet this demand by
developing 11 hydroelectric projects throughout the country. Peru is developing the
109MW Cheves hydroelectric project on the Huaura River. 111 Between 2009 and 2013,
Panama will have added 1,047MW of hydroelectric generating capacity through the
construction of 31 new dams on the Chiriqui, Chiriqui Viejo, and the Chico Rivers. 112 Chile is
now in the initial development phases of several hydroelectric complexes totaling
2,750MW in Patagonia. 113 Latin America does not show any signs of fear in the face of
impending climate change effects on hydropower production. They continue moving
forward with large projects, upon which significant amounts of people—sometimes nearly
entire countries—will rely.
105
Castano. (2011). Ibid.
Ibid.
107
Newsweek Magazine. (2008). Dams are rejected in America as too destructive, yet they are still promoted in
Latin America. Newsweek Magazine, Retrieved from
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2008/09/12/generating-conflict.html.
108
Ray, 2009. Ibid.
109
Ibid.
110
Ibid.
111
Newsweek Magazine. (2008). Ibid.
112
Ibid.
113
Ibid.
106
41
Climate change impacts and its implications for hydropower
Projections related to climate change in Latin America vary significantly at regional levels
from model to model. 114 It is believed that the ambiguity of the models is due to the
Southern Hemisphere’s “hydrometereological observation network being smaller and more
recently established than that of the Northern Hemisphere.” 115 Water related climate
changes in Latin America, like climate change in general, show a great deal of variability
across the region as a whole. Different projections associated with evaporation and
precipitation make it very difficult to make stream flow projections. It can be expected that
general changes in rainfall patterns will occur. More specifically, increased frequency of
extreme rainfall events throughout the region will lead to greater instances of flooding over
larger areas and longer periods of time. 116,117
Greater rainfall is expected in the River Plate Basin between Argentina and Uruguay due to
the trend of increasing rainfall in the region from 1960 to 2000. During the same time
frame, however, there have been notable decreases in rainfall over western Chile and Peru,
leading to the prediction that rainfall levels will continue to decrease on the Pacific side of
South America in the near future. The Amazon River watershed is predicted to feel
significant effects of climate change over the next half century. As the intensity of the El
Niño Southern Oscillation increases, the region is forecast to receive markedly less rainfall.
The ways in which the El Niño Southern Oscillation affects rainfall variability in the
Brazilian and Tropical Andes is still poorly understood. This zone of Latin America, known
as the Llanos—or the Amazon plains of Bolivia, Peru, and western Brazil—has great
impacts on the downstream variability in discharge of the Amazon River. 118,119
Changes in river flows in Latin America are mainly associated with changes in rainfall as
well as changing land use practices. Due to the relatively drier climates in the Amazon
associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, significant decreases in stream outflow in
parts of the Amazon and Tocantins river basins are expected. The Paraná River however—
which contains more than 55 percent of Brazil’s installed hydroelectric capacity as well as
great hydroelectric generation potential for Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay—is
projected to experience river flows that are significantly higher than today due to increased
rainfall amounts throughout the River Plate drainage basin. 120 Very little research exists on
114
Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.
Soito, J. L., Freitas D. S. (2011). Amazon and the expansion of hydropower in brazil: Vulnerability, impacts and
possibilities for adaptation to global climate change. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(6), 3165-3177.
116
Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.
117
Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid.
118
Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.
119
Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid.
120
Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.
115
42
the interactions of hydrology and climate change in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and
Bolivia. 121,122
Almost all climate change models predict increased temperatures across all of Latin
America. 123 The Amazon River Basin is a ‘hot spot’ for climate change manifestations but,
because evaporation predictions are poorly understood for the region, it is difficult to
assess how increased temperatures will play a role in hydropower generation. 124, 125
Though other studies have found it difficult to characterize how hydropower in the region
will be affected by increased temperatures, our framework is able to do so successfully.
Prolonged droughts have become common phenomena in recent years throughout Latin
America. Areas such as northeastern Brazil, northwestern South America, and central Chile
have experienced droughts lasting on the order of several weeks to a few years. The
occurrence of extreme droughts like these is expected to increase significantly in the
coming decades as temperatures continue to increase while rainfall in these regions could
decrease. Central America is likely to see significantly more storm events, mainly in the
form of hurricanes. 126,127 Greater storm events mean increased temporal variability of river
system discharge.
The La Plata River drainage basin is likely to see significantly higher rates of sediment
deposition in the coming decades associated with increased rainfall in the region, as well as
increased river discharge. 128 This increased sedimentation will be costly for hydropower
projects because it will require the dredging of the River on an annual basis to ensure flows
maintain some form of equilibrium.
A significant amount of the region’s installed hydropower resources are located along the
Paraná River, meaning most of these will not be affected by lower river discharges. In fact,
some of the hydroelectric facilities in eastern South America may be able to upgrade and
increase the amount of electricity they produce.
Latin American nations have a growing desire to install their own hydroelectric generation
facilities—even those countries such as Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and northern areas of
Brazil that are projected to see significantly lower levels of river discharge. Because many
121
Ibid.
Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid.
123
Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.
124
Ibid.
125
Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid.
126
Izrael, Y. (2007). Ibid.
127
Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid.
128
Ibid.
122
43
of the largest projects have already been developed (e.g., Itaipu, Guri, and Tucuruí),
engineers have been forced to decrease the size of containment reservoirs above dams.
This makes facilities more vulnerable to periods of drought (see Figure 16). The increased
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (e.g., flooding and droughts) will
require countries and private industries that are in control of hydroelectric facilities to
develop more flexible approaches to managing these reservoirs. 129
Effects on human livelihood
Due to the increased frequency and intensity of droughts in recent years, many countries in
Latin America have experienced severe economic effects associated with rolling blackouts,
which at times have lasted months on end. In 2010, rolling blackouts in Venezuela were
associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and what President Hugo Chavez declared
as “Venezuela’s worst drought in 100 years.” 130 The rolling blackouts caused the
government to enforce price hikes on some of the largest electrical consumers in the nation
thereby harming the economic development of the country as a whole. 131 In the last decade,
countries that have experienced daily rolling blackouts over a period of several months
include parts of Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina, and
Uruguay.
Beyond the harmful effects of droughts on hydropower generation in Latin America, the
power grid directly associated with hydroelectric facilities is extremely susceptible to
extreme climatic events. In November 2009, historic blackouts hit Brazil—including the
cities of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo—as well as the entire country of Paraguay after a bolt
of lightning struck a transformer near the Itaipu Dam causing the entire dam to shut down
automatically. 132 Over 60 million individuals were without power for between several
hours to a few days. 133 With the expected arrival of the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer
Olympics, Latin America cannot afford to lose power while it is in the global spotlight.
Lastly, because of the growing realization that large-scale hydropower generation to
produce nearly the entirety of individual countries’ energy portfolios is relatively
ineffective and highly vulnerable to climate change events, individuals in certain regions
have begun to fight back against development of new hydroelectric projects. Pristine
natural areas such as Patagonia and the Amazon River Basin will see growing resistance
from locals and foreign non-governmental organizations. Stories of financial corruption
129
Soito and Freitas. (2011). Ibid.
Associated Press. (2010). Venezuela starts nationwide electricity rationing. MSNBC.
131
BBC (2010).
132
La Nación. (2010). Brasil: Tormenta política por el apagón.
133
Ibid.
130
44
and massacres of indigenous peoples will also likely come to the forefront of hydropower
development in Latin America in coming years. 134 Indeed, attention to the social
responsibility of hydroelectric facility managers to the people of nations with dams will
continue to grow as climate change impacts are felt.
134
International Rivers. (2011). Latin America. Retrieved from http://www.internationalrivers.org/latin-america.
45
Oceania
Magnitude of dependence on hydropower
Figure 25: Hydropower dependence in Oceania. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to
hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.
There are varying scales of hydropower in the Asian-Pacific region. Australia maintains the
greatest installed capacity with 8,186 MW, 135 followed by New Zealand (5,373 MW),
Malaysia (4520 MW), Indonesia (4,869 MW), the Philippines (3,291 MW), Papua New
Guinea (216 MW), and Fiji (85 MW). 136 As the installed capacity of hydroelectric production
varies within each country, so does each country’s dependence on hydroelectric
production. In fact, hydro schemes in New Zealand provide 60-70 percent of the country’s
annual electricity production, 137 while Australia’s hydroelectric production comprises less
135
Harries, D. (2011). Hydroelectricity in Australia: Past, present and future. Ecogeneration, Retrieved from
http://ecogeneration.com.au/news/hydroelectricity_in_australia_past_present_and_future/055974/.
136
Energici. (2010). Papua New Guinea: Energy profile. Retrieved from http://www.energici.com/energyprofiles/by-country/oceania/papua-new-guinea.
137
Fairclough, R. (2007). An overview of power generation in New Zealand. Materials at High Temperatures, 24(4),
371-376.
46
than 18 percent of the country’s total generation mix (Figure 25). Meanwhile Papua New
Guinea and Fiji, with relatively small generation capacities, greatly depend on hydropower,
with a respective 30 percent and 39 percent of their generation mix deriving from the
source. 138 The Philippines and Indonesia also significantly rely on hydropower, as 21
percent and 17.5 percent of their installed capacity base is comprised of hydroelectric
generation. Although hydroelectric production comprises less than 10 percent of
Malaysia’s total installed capacity, the recent completion of the 2400 MW Bakun Dam more
than doubles the country’s electric capacity to 4520 MW. While the completion of the largescale dam leads to a greater dependence on hydroelectric production, the dam’s actual
impact on the country’s electric grid and generation mix has yet to be fully examined.
Type and distribution of hydropower
The majority of hydroelectric production in Australia is concentrated in Tasmania (29
percent) and New South Wales (55 percent), 139 with remaining schemes distributed
throughout Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia. With low and variable rainfall
throughout Australia, most of the hydroelectric projects are reservoir projects with the
capacity to store several years of flow. 140 Meanwhile pumped storage accounts for 1,490
MW of Australia’s hydroelectric capacity. 141 Unlike Australia, New Zealand has little storage
capacity to buffer limited flow rates in times of drought. While New Zealand’s topography
produces high head at hydroelectric facilities, most reservoirs have the capacity of mere
months. In fact according to one article, “Dry winters in 1992, 2001, and 2003 all led to a
reduction in hydroelectric production of about 20 percent.” 142 Indeed, with small storage
reservoirs, New Zealand, along with its significant dependence on hydropower, is at great
risk in drought scenarios.
The remainder of the South Pacific hydroelectric production is heavily dependent on
reservoir type dams. Ranging in nameplate capacity and reservoir volume, the size of each
reservoir is dependent on each location. The recently completed Bakun Dam in Malaysia
presents the largest reservoir, at 70,000 hectares, 143 approximately the size of Singapore. 144
138
Energici. (2010). Ibid.
Harries, D. (2011). Ibid.
140
Ford, N. (2006). Hydro in the mix in New Zealand. International Water Power & Dam Construction, 58(11), 10.
141
Harries, D. (2011). Ibid.
142
Ford, N. (2006). Ibid.
143
Bakun National Hydroelectric Project. (2011). Retrieved from http://www.bakundam.com/home.html.
144
Ibid.
139
47
Future hydropower development
Australia has begun to assess hydroelectric development and its potential to provide
electricity to remote mining and smelting facilities. 145 As most of these operations draw
electricity from geographically distant fossil fuel supplies, hydropower has the potential to
provide mining enterprises with low-cost, reliable energy generated from relatively
proximate locations. Although there is discussion of localized hydropower development in
Australia, future development is somewhat limited due to the lack of large-scale water
resources, and the abundance of domestic, low-cost fossil fuels. 146 Future hydroelectric
development for use by mining operations is also being planned in mining projects within
Papua New Guinea and Indonesia. 147
In the case of New Zealand, the best opportunity for additional hydroelectric development
is through the expansion of medium and small-scale projects. 148 In a report from New
Zealand’s Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, the Waikato region has an
additional generation potential of 140 MW of generation through the expansion of existing
projects. 149 Additionally, the development of pumped storage facilities has come to the
forefront of discussions as countries such as New Zealand hope to use plentiful wind
resources to provide non-peak electricity to pumped storage facilities. 150
Beyond Australia and New Zealand, many nations of Oceania anticipate the development of
small-scale hydroelectric facilities. Specifically, Indonesia plans to develop hydroelectric
projects in an attempt to establish and expand electrical grids in remote and rural areas. 151
While Oceania has experienced recent development of large scale hydroelectric, small-scale
hydroelectric developments command future development plans.
Climate change impacts and implications for hydropower
As much of the region depends on hydroelectric generation, small changes in climate
patterns influencing stream flow can have major impacts on overall hydroelectric
productivity. Despite the many studies completed in this region, there is still uncertainty in
climate change prediction models with respect to precipitation. 152 In one study, while an
145
Thackray, P. (2007). Potential opportunities for hydropower in the current mining resources boom. Retrieved
from http://b-dig.iie.org.mx/BibDig/P08-0295/3_CONFERENCE/16.06.%20Thackray%20P.pdf
146
Ibid.
147
Ibid.
148
Ford, N. (2006). Ibid.
149
Ibid.
150
Ibid.
151
Suroso. (2002) The prospect of small hydro power development in Indonesia. Retrieved from
http://www.hrcshp.org/en/world/db/Country_Report_Indonesia.pdf.
152
Lal, M., McGregor, J. L., & Nguyen, K. C. (2008). Very high-resolution climate simulation over Fiji using a global
variable-resolution model. Climate Dynamics, 30(2), 293-305.
48
increase in precipitation of 0.1-9.3 percent was predicted under IPCC A1B scenarios for the
Philippines, IPCC A2 climate models predicted precipitation to range from a decrease of 3.3
percent to an increase of 3.3 percent. 153 Dependent on predicted scenario, the Philippines
(similar to other countries in the region) 154 may experience unpredictable climates. Varying
predictions include increased rainfall during the monsoon season or persistent dry months
throughout the year. 155 The uncertainty in climate models is also seen for Australia. Some
studies predict increased precipitation in southeastern Australia 156 (where the majority of
hydroelectric production is located), while other studies forecast a drier future on
average. 157
Increase in temperature is projected throughout Oceania. 158 With increased evaporation,
propelled by warmer temperatures, stream flow may be adversely affected. Although
evaporation plays an influential role in the hydrological process, precipitation changes—
and perhaps most importantly—shifts in monsoon-related precipitation will play the most
dominant role in stream flow changes in the region. 159
Countries like New Zealand are the most susceptible to conditions of decreased
precipitation due to their dependence on reservoir dams with relatively little capacity.
Compared to Australian dams, with large-capacity reservoir dams, most of New Zealand’s
dams have little ability to buffer drought conditions.
Effects on human livelihood
The changing climate may have profound effects on hydroelectric production as it relates
to human livelihood. While most of the region maintains a considerable dependence on
hydroelectric production, countries such as New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji face
the greatest risk in human security with their significant dependence on hydropower
(Figure 25). In fact, a drought in 2001 forced New Zealand to cut its power use by 10
percent for ten weeks, and within that time period the treasury estimated a public loss of
153
Combalicer, E. A., Cruz, R. V. O., Lee, S., & Im, S. (2010). Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in
the Mount Makiling forest, Philippines. Journal of Earth System Science, 119(3), 265-283.
154
Adnan, N. A., & Atkinson, P. M. (2011). Exploring the impact of climate and land use changes on streamflow
trends in a monsoon catchment. International Journal of Climatology, 31(6), 815-831.
155
Espinueva, S. R. (2010). Extreme events and climate change projections for the Philippines: An opportunity for
collaborative research. Retrieved from http://jsps-th.org/wp-jsps/wp- content/uploads/2011/02/25.-SREextended-abstract-of-JSPS-international.pdf.
156
Hughes, L. L. (2003). Climate change and Australia: Trends, projections and impacts. Austral Ecology, 28(4), 423443.
157
Chiew, F. H. S., Young, W. J., Cai, W., & Teng, J. (2011). Current drought and future hydroclimate projections in
southeast Australia and implications for water resources management. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk
Assessment, 25(4), 601-612.
158
Combalicer et al. (2010). Ibid.
159
Adnan et al. (2011). Ibid.
49
about $83 million. 160 Additionally, private enterprises were adversely affected by the
drought. Indeed, one private energy retailer was forced out of the energy market and faced
losses of nearly $131 million. 161
Dam failure in smaller countries such as Fiji also presents tremendous impacts on human
livelihood as a small number of dams account for the majority of the country’s total
hydroelectric production. With hydroelectric facilities producing nearly 40 percent of the
nation’s total electrical generation, if hydroelectric production falls below expected levels
there is a significant chance that the nation will not have enough energy. Overall, as
Oceania’s energy mix maintains a considerable weight in the hydroelectric sector, the
region is greatly susceptible to changing hydrologic patterns. Although climate change
models are uncertain in the area, there is no doubt that decreases in precipitation can have
profound effects on both the public and private sectors.
160
Petroleum Economist. (2001). New Zealand faces power cuts over drought. Power Economics: Policy, Markets,
Finance, 5(8), 5.
161
Ibid.
50
Asia
Magnitude of dependence on hydropower
Figure 26: Asian hydropower dependence. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to
hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.
A large and rapidly developing continent, Asia also contains some of the world’s most
extensive and powerful river basins. The burgeoning population of Asia and the expansion
of urban areas have caused a growth in electricity demand. Less than a quarter of the
continent’s energy comes from hydroelectricity. The vast majority of the electricity—
almost seventy percent—is supplied by conventional thermal power plants. 162 Many areas
of Asia are incredibly rich in fossil fuels, which encourages the continent to rely on this
cheap and readily available energy source. 163 However, many Asian nations recognize the
region’s unique vulnerability to climate change and have begun to take steps to reduce
their carbon emissions through renewable energy development. For example, China “plans
to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP by 40-45 percent [by] 2020, and upgrade
the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption to about 15 percent.” 164
162
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid.
Ibid.
164
Research report on Chinese hydropower industry: Hydropower a promising prospect with China suspending
163
51
Nations like Tajikistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and Pakistan rely significantly on hydroelectricity,
but the rivers which supply this power are already transforming due to the effects of global
climate change. 165 Of all the countries in Asia, China has invested the most in hydropower,
spending over $200 billion hydropower within its borders and abroad. 166 Despite this
massive investment, hydropower only represents a meager 6.2 percent of the power China
consumes and 6.7 percent of the power China generates. Coal burning power plants remain
the largest sources of power; comprising 69 percent of the nation’s energy consumption
and 76 percent of its energy production. 167
Type and distribution of hydropower
The majority of hydropower projects in China and the rest of Asia are medium to large
scale reservoir dams. However, there is interest in expanding micro hydropower in remote
areas of the Himalaya where many communities are not yet electrified. 168 The Himalayan
nations of Bhutan and Nepal rely significantly on hydroelectricity generated by the massive
change in elevation within their borders. Much of the hydropower produced in Bhutan is
sold to the neighboring nation of India. Indeed, the sale of hydropower to India generates
over 50 percent of the Bhutanese gross government revenue. 169 Hydroelectricity comprises
the majority of electricity generation in the central Asian countries of Pakistan,
Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Though these nations
have ambitious plans for expanding their hydroelectric sector, they have already
experienced obstacles, both in the form of climactic variability and international
tensions. 170 Many rivers in Asia cross disputed borders, and dam building often heightens
existing tensions. These international tensions will likely build as climate change threatens
the already limited shared resources.
Future hydropower development
All across Asia, nations are interested in developing their hydropower potential in order to
supply their growing energy demands. Southeast Asia aims to increase their already
approval of nuclear projects. (2011). China Weekly News, 217.
165
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011).Ibid.
166
Research report on Chinese hydropower industry. (2011). Ibid.
167
Yan, Z. (2009). Present situation and future prospect of hydropower in china. Renewable & Sustainable Energy
Reviews, 13(6-7), 1652-1656.
168
Dhakal, S. (2011). Halting hydro: A review of the socio-technical barriers to hydroelectric power plants in Nepal.
Energy (Oxford), 36(5), 3468-3476.
169
Magistad, Mary Kay. (7 July 2011). Bhutan’s Hydropower Challenge. PRI’s The World. Retrieved from
http://www.theworld.org/2011/07/bhutans-hydropower-challenge/.
170
Steward, Richard. (8 Aug 2010). Tajikistan’s hydropower ambitions: the source of conflict in central Asia? SHIP
Peace Practitioners. Retrieved from https://sites.google.com/a/peacepractitioners.co.uk/scottish-highlandinstitute-for-peace/Articles/tajikistan%E2%80%99shydropowerambitionsthesourceofconflictincentralasia.
52
significant reliance on hydropower by building more dams. However, there are many
impediments to expansion. Some of the most significant plans for expansion are along the
Mekong River, which flows through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and
Vietnam. Vietnam depends on hydroelectric to produce upwards of 70 percent of its power
and neighboring Laos plans to build more dams on the Mekong River to become the battery
of Southeast Asia. 171 In September 2011, Burma’s president made an unexpected decision
and ceased the construction of a Chinese-funded Myitsone Dam on the Mekong River due to
public opposition. 172 The limited water resources and the region’s hunger for hydropower
development make this fluvial corridor a flash point. 173 Central Asian countries are also
hoping to significantly expand their hydropower capacity to supply both their own
burgeoning electricity needs and to increase national funds by selling hydropower to China
and Pakistan. 174 However, before they are able to do so, they need to expand the energy
deficient grid of South Asia. 175 Despite the many constraints, Asian nations appear
determined to expand their hydroelectric sector.
Climate change impacts and implications for hydropower
Asia has already experienced disasters related to climate change which are often
compounded by poor land-use practices. These climate change impacts will certainly have
implications for the viability of hydropower in the region. The most recent of extreme
weather events is the massive flooding in Thailand during the fall of 2011. Scientists
believe this monsoonal deluge can be linked to climate change. 176 The 2010 floods in
Pakistan affected over 20 million residents and inundated 62,000 square miles of the
country. Scientists have also linked these floods to monsoon rains intensified by climate
change. 177 Many areas of Southeast Asia receive up to 80 percent of their annual rainfall
during the summer months making the rivers highly variable during the monsoon
season. 178 Climate change scientists predict that with rising temperatures, the start of the
171
Hirsch, P. (2010). The changing political dynamics of dam building on the Mekong. Water Alternatives, 3(2),
312-323.
172
Burma dam: Work halted on divisive Myitsone project. (30 Sept 2011). BBC News: Asia-Pacific. Retrieved from
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15121801.
173
Fuller, T. (17 Dec 2009). Dams and development threaten the Mekong. The New York Times. Retrieved from
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/18/world/asia/18mekong.html?ref=hydroelectricpower.
174
Peyrouse, S. (2007). The Hydroelectric sector in Central Asia and the growing role of China. Central Asia
Caucasus Institute: Silk Roads Study Program. 2(5), 131-148. Retrieved from
http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/CEF/Quarterly/May_2007/Peyrouse.pdf.
175
Peyrouse,S (2007). Ibid.
176
Wild weather worsening due to climate change, IPCC confirms. (1 Nov. 2011). The Guardian. Retrieved from
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/01/climate-change-weather-ipcc.
177
Doyle, A. “Analysis: Pakistan floods, Russia heat fit climate trend.”(9 Aug. 2010). Reuters. Retrieved from
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/08/09/us-climate-extreme-idUSTRE6782DU20100809.
178
Weakened monsoon season predicted for South Asia, due to rising temperatures. (27 Feb. 2009). Ibid.
53
monsoon will arrive later in the year, lengthening the time between rains and increasing
the region’s vulnerability to drought, especially during the summer growing season. The
Chinese already regulate their dams along the Mekong River to produce a steady amount of
electricity, but doing this causes downstream wet season flooding and dry season water
shortages, problems which will likely be compounded by changes in the monsoon
pattern. 179 Unpredictability, surges in river flows, and water shortages are all linked to
climate change induced alterations to the South Asian monsoon.
Droughts have also plagued Asia. Poor water management combined with climate change
has spurned some of the most severe droughts in the continent’s history. In 2004, the
Yunnan Province of China underwent one of the worst droughts in years, experiencing 60
percent less rainfall and leaving 8.1 million residents short on drinking water. 180 Almost
simultaneously, another heavy monsoon caused catastrophic flooding in Bangladesh, India,
Nepal, Vietnam and other areas of China. 181 Since the 1960s, the number of overall rainy
days has decreased in China, while the number of extreme precipitation events has
increased. 182 Climate change has caused the temporal distribution of water resources to
become more unpredictable in Asia. 183 The unpredictability and volatility in precipitation
across the continent naturally affects hydropower generation.
As climate change effects intensify, scientists predict that there will be more of these
intense floods and droughts throughout Asia. 184 Sea levels are also projected to rise, causing
coastal erosion and erosion of the limited agricultural land in low-lying river deltas like the
Mekong. 185 In arid and semi-arid regions, both water quality and availability are predicted
to decrease. 186 In the Indian and Pacific Oceans, there will be more high-grade storms
which could affect rainfall and infrastructure. 187 Though it is difficult to predict the future
impacts of climate change, we can be certain that climate change will significantly affect
Asia not only because of its ecological qualities and geographic location, but also because
179
Singapore paper views Chinese hydropower projects' impact on Southeast Asia. (2010). BBC Monitoring
International Reports.
180
Qiu, J. (2010). China drought highlights future climate threats. Nature (London), 465(7295), 142-143.
181
South Asia flood crisis grows. (27 July 2004). The Guardian. Retrieved from
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2004/jul/27/naturaldisasters.climatechange1.
182
Qiu, J. (2010). Ibid.
183
McNally, A. (2009). Ibid.
184
BBC Monitoring International Reports. (6 June 2010). Hydropower projects threatened future of Mekong.
Global News Wire - Asia Africa Intelligence Wire.
185
Ibid.
186
Hay, J. (2006). Supporting climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments in the asia-pacific region:
An example of sustainability science. Sustainability Science, 1(1), 23-35.
187
Ibid.
54
many Asian nations lack the infrastructure and resources to effectively respond to crises
spawned by climate change.
The Himalayan glaciers hold the largest store of fresh water outside the Polar Ice Caps. 188
Many of the rivers on the Asian continent originate in the Himalayas. Steady glacial melt
has fed these rivers, regulating their flow throughout the annual hydrological cycle.
However, many of these glaciers are rapidly melting, causing yet more volatility in the flow
levels of rivers in Asia. Though intensified glacial melt increases the flow level of the rivers
they feed, rapid spring melting causes a shortage in late season flows, 189 when water is
often critical for agriculture. Deglaciation in the Himalaya will also cause rapid growth of
glacial lakes, which will increase the likelihood of glacial lake outburst floods. 190 These
devastating and often unexpected floods could wreak havoc on hydroelectric
infrastructure. The deglaciation pattern will deliver water to the rivers in sporadic bursts
rather than a steady stream of flow. However, glacial melt will cause at least initial overall
increased flow for the rivers originating in the Himalaya. Highly variable river flow is not
optimal for hydropower, so even though deglaciation will increase the flows at certain
periods of time, its variability and unpredictability make hydropower more vulnerable on
rivers like the Indus and Ganges which receive over 40 percent of their volume from
Himalayan glaciers. 191 In addition to affecting hydropower, deglaciation will threaten the
water security of entire areas of Asia such as Kashmir, which relies on the glaciers to
supply them with a reliable and constant source of water for drinking and irrigation as well
as power. 192 While a small select number of glaciers are expanding, the vast majority are
rapidly melting. Some smaller rivers are fed exclusively by glacial melt, and could dry up in
as few as 50 years. This naturally would affect downstream hydropower, not to mention
the water supply of communities along such rivers.
188
Schifrin, Nick. (2011) In the Indian Himalayas, you can hear climate change before you can see it. ABC News.
Retrieved from http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=5540526.
189
Ives, M. (2011). Ibid.
190
Shrestha, Arun and Raju Aryal. (17 Nov. 2010). Climate Change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan Glaciers.
Regional Environmental Change. 11: S68.
191
Immerzeel, W.. L. Van Beek and M. Bierkens. (2010) Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science .
328:5984. Retrieved from http://www.sciencemag.org/content/328/5984/1382.full.
192
Wirsing, R. (2011). Perilous waters: The changing context of river rivalry in south Asia. The Whitehead Journal of
Diplomacy and International Relations, 12(1), 39.
55
Effects on human livelihood
Scientists predict that Southeast Asia will be one of the “hardest hit” areas of climate
change. 193 Many areas of Southeast Asia have high population density and a shortage of
land. 194 Almost 50 percent of the world’s population resides in areas affected by the
monsoon cycle, so changes in this climactic pattern have implications for half of the globe’s
population. 195 Much of the productive agricultural areas of Asia lie within the tropics and
sub-tropics where agricultural productivity is predicted to decrease due to climate change,
making food shortage a threat. 196 The lack of reliable electricity in many nations is the
single greatest impediment to attracting companies that have the potential to enrich the
region, meaning that developing Asian nations need reliable electricity supply to foster
economic growth. Yet, in a Catch-22, these same nations need more money in order to build
the infrastructure that could supply reliable electricity. Thus, hydropower’s growing
unreliability with climate change threatens Asia’s economy. Beyond creating electricity and
spurring investment, the rivers of Asia are the lifeblood of many communities. The lower
Mekong River alone supports the livelihood of over 60 million people. 197 By 2025, the lower
Mekong basin is predicted to have a population of over 90 million people, 198 a population
which will tax both the food and water resources of the region. The dams also prevent the
rich silt that the river carries from being deposited on agricultural fields and thereby
replenishing the soil. 199 The Mekong delta also creates an immensely fertile rice-growing
area in Vietnam, which both dams and climate change threaten to disturb, with
implications for regional food security. 200 The Mekong River example highlights many of the
impediments to hydropower development in Asia. The Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra,
Yangtze, and Yellow provide the water for over 1.4 billion people, and all of these rivers are
threatened by climate change. 201 These changes affect not only the viability of hydropower,
but the sustainability of human populations. The floods, droughts, glacial melt and erratic
monsoon cycle will endanger hydropower generation, but more significantly they also
threaten human livelihoods in many areas of Asia.
193
Ibid.
Hay, J. (2006). Ibid.
195
Weakened monsoon season predicted for South Asia, due to rising temperatures. (2009). Ibid.
196
Wirsing, R. (2011). Ibid.
197
Ives, M. (2011). Ibid.
198
BBC monitoring international reports. (2010). Ibid.
199
Ives, M. (2011). Ibid.
200
Fuller, T. (2009). Ibid.
201
Immerzeel, W. (2010). Ibid.
194
56
Middle East
Magnitude of dependence on hydropower
Figure 27: Hydropower dependence in the Middle East. Percent of total installed capacity
dedicated to hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.
In 2011 32 percent of all electrical generation in Turkey came from hydroelectric
sources. 202 With a total installed capacity of about 13,700 MW, 203 Turkey maintains the
largest amount of operational hydropower facilities in the Middle East and is currently in
the construction phase of an extensive hydroelectric development in the Southeastern
Anatolia Project (GAP). The GAP is one of the largest development projects of its kind with
a total installed capacity of 7476 MW. 204 Comprising a series of 19 hydroelectric dams, the
202
Yuksel, I. (2011). Water development for hydroelectric in Southeastern Anatolia Projects (GAP) in Turkey.
Renewable Energy, 39 (1), 17.
203
Ibid
204
Ibid
57
project looks to exploit 5304 MW from the Euphrates River Basin and another 2172 MW
from the Tigris. 205
Downstream, the majority of Syria’s 8,200 MWs 206 of hydroelectric development is
concentrated on the Euphrates River. Meanwhile, although Iraq is home to the Euphrates
and Tigris Rivers, decreased hydrological flow and decades of war have crippled much of
the nation’s hydroelectric projects. While the Tigris and Euphrates river basins hold the
majority of hydroelectric capacity in the region, Iran contains multiple basins fed by the
Zargos Mountain Range with respectable hydroelectric potential of 2000 MW.
Type and distribution of hydropower
The Middle East’s surface hydrology is primarily defined by the Tigris-Euphrates River
Basin, which boasts a mean annual streamflow of 85 billion cubic meters (BCM). 207 While
the next greatest Middle Eastern river system pales in comparison, other countries
maintain and/or are planning additional hydroelectric development within different
watersheds.
Originating in Turkey, the Tigris River briefly flows on the border with Syria before it
passes into Iraq and continues to its final destination in of the Persian Gulf. While 77
percent of the river lies within Iraq, nearly half of the River’s 50 BCM of flow originates in
Turkey. 208 Nearby, the Euphrates River’s annual streamflow of 35 BCM also begins in
Turkey. The Euphrates continues through Syria and finally joins the Tigris River in
southeastern Iraq. A staggering 86 percent of flow is derived from surface runoff and
snowmelt within Turkey. 209 Meanwhile, the downstream nations of Syria and Iraq are
dependent on steady stream flow from Turkey with 24 percent and 35 percent of the
Euphrates’ length within their boundaries, respectively. 210 The majority of current
hydroelectric development has been focused at the Tigris and Euphrates’ headwaters,
which lie within the boundaries of Turkey. Most hydroelectric projects on these rivers are
large scale reservoir dams. While run-of-river and smaller scale hydroelectric projects exist
in the basins, these dam facilities generate electricity pursuant of upstream reservoir dam
outflow. In these regulated systems, run-of-river and smaller scale reservoir dams produce
electricity similar to upstream facilities as the large scale reservoir dams may serve as
indirect reservoirs for smaller downstream projects.
205
Ibid.
Daly, John C.K. (2011). Syria’s water and energy needs. Assyrian International News Agency.
207
Cullen, H.M., Kaplan, A., Arkin, P.A., & deMenocal, P.B. (2002). Impact of the North Atlantic oscillation on
Middle Eastern climate and streamflow. Climate Change, 55 (3), 315-338.
208
Ibid.
209
Ibid.
210
Ibid.
206
58
Outside of the Tigris-Euphrates System, the remaining hydroelectric development in the
Middle East is concentrated within Iran. The Zargos Mountain Range maintains a climate of
considerable precipitation, which provides various river basins with snowmelt and surface
runoff which facilitate powerful streamflow.
Future hydropower development
Due to Turkey’s control of the Tigris and Euphrates headwaters, few other nations within
the region are planning hydroelectric development. While Turkey continues to develop
hydroelectric facilities in respect to GAP, outside the Tigris and Euphrates river basins, Iran
is in the development stage of thousands of additional MWs within the Zagos mountains
region.
Climate change impacts and implications for hydropower
The Middle East lies in a transition zone between the temperate, wet climate of Central
Europe and the arid climate of North Africa. With the desert environments of the Arabian
Peninsula to the south, and the wet mountainous regions of Turkey and Iran to the north
and east, even small shifts in climatic patterns are likely to have tremendous impacts on the
region’s climate. 211 Additionally, a Mediterranean climate characterizes much of the
remaining region between the dry south and the wet northeast. 212
The Middle East’s climatic variations are in large part due to the North Atlantic Oscillation
Pattern (NAO). The NAO regulates heat and moisture fluxes in the Mediterranean Region
and ultimately influences climate patterns throughout the Middle East. 213 Over the past 150
years, this climatic pattern has provided the Mediterranean and Middle East with much of
its precipitation in the form of wet winters. 214 The NAO transports winter cyclones to the
area, and large amounts of precipitation with them. In a 2002 study of the NAO, Cullen et al.
note that increased greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere will
significantly impact the regional precipitation patterns that are controlled by the NAO.
Specifically, “December through March precipitation and streamflow can be expected to be
lower” 215 due to climate change. As the NAO is a significant contributor to snow
211
Giorgi, F. (2008). Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse has forcing estimated from
high resolution simulations with a regional climate model. Planetary Change,62 (3-4), 195-209.
212
Evans, J. (2010). Ibid.
213
Turkes, M. (1996) Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey. International Journal of
Climatology, 16(9), 1057-1076.
214
Hurrell, J.W. (1995). Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation.
Science, 269 (5224), 676-679.
215
Cullen et al. (2011). Ibid.
59
accumulation, the ultimate sources of both the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, climate change
will have a major impact on region’s flow rates. 216
This trend is further corroborated with A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios and the ICTP
RegCM climate model which state that “by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean
region might experience a substantial increase and northward extension of arid regime
lands.” 217 This threatens to increase water scarcity in downstream states. Climate scientists
are predicting these changes with increased certainty, claiming that “the Mediterranean is
an area of the globe where climate change projections are most consistent across models
and scenarios.” 218 More specifically, regional models predict that the Levant (Israel,
Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine) will be most affected by climate change. These models
project a decrease in precipitation along with an increase in surface temperature. 219
Consequently, climate models of a 2008 study predicted a 25 percent decrease of
precipitation in the upper Jordan River catchment and other zones in the Levant 220due to
the combination of decreased precipitation and increased evaporation.
While the majority of climate models predict a decrease in precipitation for the majority of
the Middle East, there is also a consensus that precipitation will increase in some areas
within the region. 221 A 2008 study using the MM5 climate model (CCSM3), predicted
increases in precipitation over the Saudi desert and the Zagros Mountain regions in all
seasons except summer. 222 While the Arabian Peninsula will still maintain limited potential
for hydroelectric development due to a dearth of rivers, the predicted increase of
precipitation in the mountainous regions of Iran will increase flow averages in the Karun
River basin among other regional watersheds.
Climate change poses some evident threats to the Turkey’s energy security due to its
significant investment in hydropower. Current climate predictions indicate less
precipitation and higher mean temperatures resulting in less surface water flow in the
region. 223 Although decreases in flow fundamentally impact Turkey’s hydropower
potential, the region’s hilly landscape makes it “possible to develop relatively higher heads
216
Sowers, J., Vengosh, A., & Weinthal, E.. (2011). Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaption in
the Middle East and North Africa. Climate Change, 104:599-627.
217
Giorgi, F. (2008). Ibid.
218
Ibid.
219
Sowers et al. (2011). Ibid.
220
Ibid.
221
Evans, J. (2010). Global warming impact on the dominant precipitation processes in the Middle East. Theoretical
and Applied Climatology, 99(3), 389-402.
222
Ibid.
223
Fujihara, Y., Tanaka, K., Watanabe, T., Nagano, T., & Kojiri, T. (2008). Assessing the impacts of climate change on
the water resources of the Seyhan river Basin in Turkey: Use of dynamically downscaled data for hydrologic
simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 353(1-2), 33-48.
60
without expensive civil engineering works, so that relatively smaller flows are required to
develop the desired power.” 224 Therefore, the regions advantageous landscape allows for
the exploitation of relatively low flow rates. This may help buffer some of climate change’s
impacts on Turkey’s hydroelectric dams. In addition, Turkey’s control of the Tigris and
Euphrates’ headwaters puts it at an advantage compared to the rest of the region. With the
lion’s share of the region’s hydroelectric resources, Turkey has the ability to withhold
higher percentages of total flow in reservoirs to offset lower average flow rates
downstream. Turkey’s diverse hydroelectric network also has the potential to mitigate
changing streamflow patterns induced by climate change. Yurek notes that, “Turkey has
huge storage capacity in dams and it can function as the storage and buffer for smaller
units without storage. Thus, all electricity produced by hydro plants, small or large and
with or without storage, should be classified as firm energy.” 225 While climate change’s
effects on Turkey may be partially mitigated, other countries downstream in the Tigris and
Euphrates systems may not fare as well.
Turkey’s influence on downstream flow is exemplified by the 2400 MW Arturk Dam (GAP)
which cut downstream flow of the Euphrates by a third. 226 The majority of Syria’s 8200
MW 227 of hydroelectric development is concentrated on the Euphrates, thus this decrease
in flow has been detrimental to Syrian hydroelectric facilities. Many dams including the 880
MW Tabqa Dam have “underachieved” due to lower than expected flow rates. 228 Further
downstream, Iraq is even more adversely affected by flow disruption to the north. Due to
the compounding impacts of increased hydroelectric development and below average
precipitation in headwater regions of the Tigris, Iraq’s largest hydroelectric facility, the
Mosul Dam, was shut down in the winter of 2011. 229 “It is the first time since 1984 when
the dam was built that water levels have fallen this low” the advisor to the electricity
minister of Iraq said. The advisor also noted that Iraq’s 660 MW Haditha Dam on the
Euphrates was operating at less than 50 percent capacity. 230
While most of the Middle East stands to lose precipitation in climate change projections,
increased precipitation in the Iranian mountains may translate to increased flow and
increased hydroelectric potential.
224
Yüksek, Ö. (2008). Reevaluation of Turkey's hydropower potential and electric energy demand. Energy Policy,
36(9), 3374-3382.
225
Ibid.
226
Daly, J. (2011). Ibid.
227
Daly, J. (2011). Ibid.
228
Daly, J. (2011). Ibid.
229
Farugi, A. (2011). No hydropower from Iraq’s Mosul dam. Iraq Daily Times. Retrieved from
http://iraqdailytimes.com/no-hydropower-from-iraqs-mosul-dam-official/.
230
Ibid.
61
Effects on human livelihood
As current flow on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has been obstructed by increasing
hydroelectric development and climate derived reductions in rainfall, downstream
countries prove to be at the highest risk. While Turkey may be able to withstand limited
precipitation, Syria and more specifically Iraq face very grim projections with drier, hotter
climates, and reduced flow from Turkey’s usage. Climate projections and increased rainfall
in the Zargos Mountain range may lead to increased hydroelectric potential in Iran. Other
countries within the region, specifically on the Arabian Peninsula, are not particularly
vulnerable as hydroelectric generation capacity is insignificant in their overall electrical
generation portfolio.
62
Africa
Magnitude of dependence on hydropower
Figure 28: African hydropower dependence. Percent of total installed capacity dedicated to
hydropower. Data: US Energy Administration, 2008.
Africa is heavily dependent on hydropower. Continent level energy statistics tend to
conceal this due to the fact that “South Africa's 42 GW accounts for around 40 percent of
total African capacity and 90 percent of the country's capacity is coal fired.” 231 However,
country level data reveal a different story, with some nations boasting over 90 percent of
installed electricity capacity derived from hydropower (Figure 28). 232 Due to the dearth of
water resources in northern Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to the majority of the
continent’s hydroelectric dams. Most of the generating capacity is concentrated on the
231
Neil Ford. (2007). Power pools present best hope for renewed foreign interest in African power sector. Energy
Economist, 305, 12.
232
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2011c). Ibid.
63
continent’s major rivers, the Nile, the Congo, and the Zambezi. However, smaller basins
such as the Volta also contain a number of hydroelectric dams. 233 The development of
markets like the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the growing influence of
neoliberal ideas have driven a surge in hydroelectric development in Africa, much of it
internationally funded. 234 Indeed, “The amount of hydropower under construction in Africa
jumped 53 percent from 2004 to last year [2006]”, according to the Hydropower & Dams
World Atlas and Industry Guide, an industry reference journal. 235
Future Hydropower Development
While hydropower already plays a dominant role in Africa’s electricity portfolio, there are
extensive plans for additional hydroelectric development throughout Africa. In 2009, the
World Bank estimated that only 5 percent of the Africa’s hydroelectric potential was being
harnessed. 236 Thus, large projects are planned and under construction in a number of
nations including Ethiopia, Uganda, Zambia, Mozabique and Liberia. 237 A number of new
dams have recently been completed in Ethiopia, part of an ongoing period of growth that
makes the nation the largest electricity generator on the continent after South Africa;
jumping from 745 MW (2006) to 10GW (projected for 2016) over ten years. 238 No
discussion of hydropower in Africa is complete without mentioning the proposed Grand
Inga Dam in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This massive dam would be the world’s
largest energy generation project, with an estimated capacity of 39GW. 239 The enormous
power potential at Grand Inga has led to discussions of constructing a continent spanning
electricity grid that could provide power to all Africans and provide some electricity to
Europe and the Middle East. 240 However, numerous environmental, engineering, and social
concerns have hampered Grand Inga’s development. While feasibility studies are
continually being conducted, only time will tell if the enormous plans are realized. 241
233
Waylen, P. (2008). Ibid.
Showers, K. B. (2009). Congo River’s grand Inga hydroelectricity scheme: linking environmental history, policy
and impact. Water History, 1.
235
Wachter, S. (2007). Tapping energy for Africa's transformation the revival of hydroelectric projects has drawn
fans, and critics. International Herald Tribune, 12.
236
Sharife, K. (2009). Damnation for Africa's big dams? African Business, (352), 52.
237
Ibid.; Basson, G. (2004). Hydropower dams and fluvial morphological impacts-an african perspective. Paper
presented at the Retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/sdissues/energy/op/hydro_basson_paper.pdf.
238
Ethiopia leads Africa's hydro renaissance. African Business 2011.
239
Ibid.
240
Wachter, S. (2007). Ibid.; Showers, K.B. (2009). Ibid.
241
Showers, K.B. (2009). Ibid.
234
64
Type and distribution of hydropower
While large dams generate the majority of Africa’s hydroelectricity, there are some smaller
projects as well. In general, the power from smaller dams is distributed to household use,
where the power from larger dams tends to go to mining and other industries. 242 Small
scale hydro has been far less explored than large projects. 243 This is likely due to the
preference of foreign investors for larger projects with larger capital returns. Africa’s dams
include a mix of run-of-river and reservoir dams, and both types are often found in the
same basin. 244 Overall, pumped storage has received a poor reputation in the African press
due to a misunderstanding of its efficiency, but there are plans to develop pumped storage
in South Africa. 245
Implications of climate change impacts for hydropower
Climate is already a major factor in African hydroelectric production. Recurring droughts
have plagued hydroelectric dams and led to power rationing across the continent. In the
past decade, from Ghana to Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania, droughts have disrupted
generation, sometimes reducing plants to half of their capacity. 246 However, already
seasonable and variable rainfall will only become more stochastic with the onset of global
climate change. 247 This threatens to create even more frequent power shortages. There is
concern that climactic impacts will be so great that they will provide a disincentive to
foreign investment in new dams, however the current rush to build indicates that this is
not a concern yet. 248
Differences in temperature and rainfall are projected to be the two biggest impacts of
climate change in Africa (but these can also increase evaporation, a crucial consideration
for reservoirs). 249 The rainfall changes will also be different for different subregions, which
raises questions for regional planning and power distribution. 250 While some regions will
likely receive more rainfall and thus increased river flows, there is uncertainty regarding
242
Sharife, K. (2009). Ibid.
Basson, G. (2004). Ibid.
244
Yamba, F. D., Walimwipi, H., Jain, S., Zhou, P., Cuamba, B., & Mzezewa, C. (2011). Climate change/variability
implications on hydroelectricity generation in the Zambezi River Basin Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Global Change, 16(6), 617-628.
245
"Ethiopia leads Africa's hydro renaissance." African Business June 2011: 56. General OneFile. Web. 25 Oct.
2011.
246
Mukheibir, P. (2007). Ibid.; Waylen, P. (2008). Ibid.
247
Mukheibir, P. (2007). Ibid.
248
Harrison and Whittington. (2002). Ibid.
249
Mukheibir, P. (2007). Ibid.
250
Ibid.
243
65
the consistency of this increase. 251 Thus it could lead to generally increased flow and
power production, or it could lead to more extreme rain events and unexpected flooding.
There is potential for conflict due to competing uses of water (drinking, irrigation, etc),
which will only be amplified by the impacts of climate change. 252
The Congo River Basin is projected to receive both increased rainfall and temperatures, but
minimum evaporative reductions to generating capacity due to the humidity of the region
and the dearth of reservoir dams (though there are several large run-of-river stations in
this area). 253 Other regions face more striking predictions, “Climate models predict an
average 10-20 percent decline in rainfall, resulting in the rivers of Botswana and Tunisia
completely drying up. The high-risk regions include the east-west bands stretching from
Senegal to Sudan.” 254 Harrison and Whittington’s analysis of IPCC reports for the Zambezi
River Basin indicate increased precipitation in future rainy seasons (January-July), and
even drier dry seasons (August-December). 255 They also note that “Simulations indicate
that for all scenarios annual flow levels at Victoria Falls reduce between 10 and 35.5
percent. In each case the resultant flow change is greater than the precipitation change,
confirming the amplifying effect of the hydrology.” 256
Yamba, et al. conducted a fairly comprehensive study of projected climate change impacts
on hydroelectric generation in the Zambezi River Basin. These authors paired hydrologic
modeling, based on historical data, with projected climate changes to reveal general trends
for the basin and more specific changes for each dam site. 257 Their findings indicate a
gradual overall reduction in generation capacity over the next 60 years. 258 However this
reduction is only gradual in light of this time scale, as Yamba et al. predict both severely dry
years, and potential flooding events. 259 Thus extreme variability must be planned for
through strategic management of flows between dams in the basin to maximize
generation. 260
251
Ibid.
Lein, H. (2004). Managing the water of kilimanjaro: Water, peasants, and hydropower development.
GeoJournal, 61(2), 155-162.
253
Mukheibir, P. (2007). Ibid.
254
Sharife, K. (2009). Ibid.
255
Harrison and Whittington. (2002). Ibid.
256
Ibid.
257
Yamba, et al. (2011). Ibid.
258
Ibid.
259
Ibid.
260
Ibid.
252
66
In a similar study, Beyene, et al. predict that climate change will increase temperature and
precipitation for the Nile River Basin. 261 Streamflow and power production at the Aswan
High Dam are projected to increase in the early 21st century due to more significant
precipitation increases relative to temperature increases. 262 However, in the latter half of
the 21st century, precipitation is expected to decrease, while temperatures continue to rise,
increasing evaporation in both Lake Victoria and the Lake Nasser (the Aswan High Dam’s
reservoir). 263
Effects on human livelihood
As recent droughts have already illustrated, Africa’s dependence on hydropower has
already made much of the continent’s power vulnerable to weather irregularities. 264 Such
inconsistent power is economically detrimental. It is important to note that Africa’s
current hydropower resources generally power industry, not households, thus dams must
not be equated with popular electrification. 265 Indeed, the link between climate change’s
impact on hydropower production and human livelihood is only relevant in so far as the
benefits currently provided by dams contribute to human livelihood, which is a debatable
fact in its own right. Despite the massive amounts of electricity produced by dams in
Mozambique and the DRC, fewer than 9 percent and 6 percent of their populations have
access to electricity respectively. 266 It appears that distribution of electricity is a larger
threat to human livelihood than climate change, or at least an issue that must be addressed
first.
261
Beyene, T. (2010). Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile river basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC
climate scenarios. Climatic Change, 100, 3-4.
262
Ibid.
263
Ibid.
264
Sharife, K. (2009). Ibid.
265
Ibid.
266
Ibid.
67
Beyond our Framework in the Mekong River Basin
Climate change is not the only factor which
impacts hydropower generation. Land and
water
use
practices
also
impact
hydropower vulnerability. The cumulative
impact of the 130 dam projects drastically
affects the overall flow of the Mekong
River. So, while our framework shows
specifically how climate changes impacts
hydropower, it is necessary to also
consider what other factors impact the
vulnerability of hydropower for any given
Ships sailing along the Mekong River near Three
Gorges Dam in China.
river. In April of 2010 a drought plagued
Credit: World Wildlife Fund
South Asia and the Mekong River shrunk
to its narrowest width in 50 years, drying up rice fields and fisheries. 267 Many downstream
nations suspected that the Chinese dams along the river exacerbated the effects of this
devastating drought. 268 The lower Mekong River supports the livelihood of over 60 million,
and this population is growing rapidly. 269 This event begs the question, what is the cost of
meeting South Asia’s electricity demands with hydropower? Currently, the region hopes to
use hydropower generation to supply its increasing demand for reliable electricity; 270 but
the future quality of life for millions of people is reliant on the resilience of the Mekong
River.
267
Wheatley (2010). Ibid.
Ibid.
269
Ives, M. 2011. (Ibid).
270
Hydropower on the Mekong: Might not give a dam. (1 May 2011). The Economist. Retrieved from
http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/05/hydropower_mekong.
268
68
6. CONCLUSIONS
In developed regions of the world such as North America and Western Europe, there is
little interest in building new large-scale hydroelectric dams. However, developing regions
of the world—Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East—are making large
investments to increase the role of hydropower production in their energy portfolios. In
these regions, hydropower is often seen as a low-emission energy source that can meet the
growing energy demands of developing nations. There are a variety of types and scales of
hydropower facilities, each one with their own vulnerabilities to climate change. While
large-scale reservoir dams are able to regulate more specifically when they generate
electricity and how much electricity they produce, altering the flow of any given river
yields significant hydrological consequences. There is a huge disparity in nation’s reliance
on hydropower, and each nation will have to carefully consider how climate change will
impact hydropower production to determine what role, if any, hydropower should play in
their energy futures.
Certain areas of the globe are becoming increasingly susceptible to hydrological
transformations caused by climate change. Changes in evaporation rates, annual river
discharge amounts, seasonal and temporal offsets of hydrological patterns, extreme
precipitation events, and increased glacial melt are the most pertinent climate change
effects that will impact hydroelectric generation. It is necessary to remember that these
impacts all affect each other and cannot solely be viewed in isolation. Some of these
changes will cause an increase of hydropower generation, while others have the potential
to decrease generation. Amidst these many impacts, increased volatility and variability in
water supply will increase with climate change. This is detrimental to hydroelectric
generation because to generate electricity reliably, a hydropower facility requires a
relatively reliable water source. Additionally, differing climate scenarios and the
uncertainty inherent to modeling future trends all make it very difficult to determine the
precise effect climate change will have on hydroelectric production. However, even with
this uncertainty, we still need to plan for the world’s future energy demands.
The framework we constructed shows how vulnerable any given hydropower facility is to
certain climate change effects. Changes in future electric production depend not only on the
type and severity of climate alterations, but also on the facility’s structural characteristics.
By consulting the provided maps and framework, ISciences and decision-makers can
acquire a basic understanding of how climate change may impact certain areas, and which
types of hydropower facilities are least vulnerable to said effects. As this framework is
designed only to provide an initial evaluation of global conditions, more intensive sitespecific research is necessary on a case-by-case basis. It is imperative to understand how
69
climate change will impact hydroelectric production if we hope to meet some of the world’s
growing energy demands with hydropower. While hydropower is often developed as a
means of generating electricity that reduces emissions that contribute to climate change,
we must also account for how climate change will impact these facilities.
70
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