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Climate Change Sphere Demo ©2017 Pacific Science Center Created as part of the Exploring Earth Systems Science grant; This project was made possible in part by the Institute of Museum and Library Services grant number MA-10-130107-13. Please direct questions to: [email protected] Terms of use: These materials are for non-commercial use only, and cannot be sold. These materials are for your organization’s internal use only. Additional requests should be made before sharing beyond your organization. If these materials or a portion of these materials are copied as is, please credit as follows: “Climate Change demonstration created by Pacific Science Center, Exploring Earth Systems Science grant. This project was made possible in part by the Institute of Museum and Library Services grant number MA-10-13-0107-13”. If new activities are created that are based on this original activity, please credit as follows: "Activity modified from the Climate Change demonstration created by Pacific Science Center, Exploring Earth Systems Science grant. This project was made possible in part by the Institute of Museum and Library Services grant number MA-10-13-0107-13”. Description Climate Change is a live, 20 minute demo best for grades 6-8, featuring Science on a Sphere, a dynamic interactive data modeling tool. In this show, the audience will use science practices such as planning investigations and analyzing data to explore earth systems. Using hands-on props and interaction with a live science interpreter, they will learn about the difference between weather and climate and what causes climate change as well as discuss how our climate is changing and potential solutions. Props and Materials Permanent iPad Laser pointer Science Toolbox Signs for science toolbox o Ask a Question o Investigate o Use a Model o Construct an Explanation o Communicate Information 5 metal sign holders Paper map 3 books Big yellow key Legend for temperature anomaly data-set Carbon balance Blocks for carbon balance o Medium-sized red block with people and animals o Large-sized red block with decomposition of banana, etc o Large-sized blue block with waves o Medium-sized blue block with waves o Small-sized blue block with sea life o Medium-sized blue block with sea life o Medium-sized blue block with trees and plants o Small-sized blue block with trees and plants o Small-sized red block with fossil fuels o Small-sized red block with cars o Small-sized red block with plugs and outlets o Small-sized red block with smokestacks Packing iPad: Put away in the cabinet in the office, making sure it is locked. Laser pointer: Put away in the Sphere cabinet. Science Toolbox and Toolbox signs: Keep the signs inside the Toolbox and leave the Toolbox in the cart. Paper maps and books: Leave these in the top drawer inside the demo cart. Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center, p. 2 Big yellow key: Leave this on top of the demo cart. Metal sign holders: Put them in bottom plastic drawer on the metal shelf to the left when you walk into the cart closet. Carbon Balance: Put this in the corner next to the white lamp for Strange Planets. Blocks for Carbon Balance: Put these in the white bin and place the bin at the foot of the Carbon Balance. Maintenance Treat the Toolbox and vocabulary signs with care. They can easily break or get scratched. Carry the Carbon Balance from the base, not from the swinging arms. Treat the blocks for the Carbon Balance with care. They can easily break or get scratched. Key G Guest P Presenter Bold italics indicate action. Italics indicate a note to the presenter. indicates a cue Data-sets Climate Change Demonstration starting here soon What is climate? How does climate change? Is our climate changing? NOAA logo. Clouds: Real Time Temperature Anomaly: Monthly What is climate? Weather patterns that emerge over at least 30 years. How does climate change? Venus (the dataset from Alien Landscapes?) Carbon dioxide concentration GEOS-5 model How does climate change? Change the composition of the atmosphere. Is our climate changing? Carbon Tracker – Slide Scale 2001-2010 Temperature Anomaly: Monthly Climate Model: Temperature Change (Hadley a1b) - 1870 – 2100 Is our climate changing? Yes. Sea Level Trends 1993 - 2012 Facebook Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 3 Climate Change Concept Weather refers to atmospheric conditions in a specific time and place whereas climate refers to atmospheric conditions that form a pattern over time. Atmospheric carbon dioxide acts like a heat-trapping blanket over the Earth. Natural phenomena emit carbon into the atmosphere and other natural phenomena absorb carbon, creating a balance. Burning fossil fuels releases carbon into the atmosphere that cannot be balanced out by natural phenomena. The climate is changing and will continue to change, which will affect us in various ways, including sea level rise. Communication will help people to create community-level solutions to address reduction of carbon emissions. Learning Objective Visitors will compare real-time weather data to climate data in order to determine the difference between weather and climate. Visitors will compare the atmosphere of Venus to that of Earth, observing that Venus’s high temperature is a result of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using blocks to represent different natural phenomena and a balance beam, visitors create a balance between carbon dioxide emitted and absorbed into the atmosphere. Using additional blocks representing fossil fuel emissions, visitors demonstrate that burning fossil fuels releases carbon into the atmosphere that cannot be balanced out by natural phenomena. After viewing data on climate, climate models, and sea level rise models, visitors will discuss ways to communicate to create community-level solutions to address reduction of carbon emissions. Set-up 1. Open the Sphere cabinet, turn off daily demo, and call up the show announcement playlist. 2. Push the benches so that there are several rows facing the Sphere. 3. Set up the carbon balance to one side. 4. Roll the demo cart to the other side. 5. Set up the metal sign holders along the railing of the sphere. 6. Make sure the correct cards for the Science Toolbox are in the Science Toolbox, and put the toolbox in the cart. 7. Make sure you have the correct legend for the big yellow key, and put the key in the cart for future use. 8. Put the blocks for the Carbon Balance in the cart. Also put the paper map and books in the cart so that they are easily accessible for when they will be used in your demo. 9. Open the Climate Change playlist, and have the iPad and laser pointer ready. Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 4 Script Pre-Show Cue next dataset, which will be a blank/black sphere. This will let you keep the attention of your audience for the intro portion of the show. Intro P: Hi! My name is ______________. Can everyone say, “Hi, ______________?” G: Hi, _______________. P: Today we’re going to talk about climate change. Climate change is something you’ve probably heard about before; it’s in the news a lot. What’s the first word you think of when you think of climate change? G: Hot. Doom. It’s not real. Greenhouse. Pollution. Skeptics. It’s a lie. P: Great. There are a lot of different ideas out there, which can make this topic confusing. Whenever I’m confused about something, I turn to science. Science isn’t about politics or opinions; it’s about gathering information, proving things using information, and drawing likely conclusions. Science Toolbox P: Let’s take a look at some of the tools scientists use. Take out toolbox and pretend to dig through it. The tools in here help me figure out what to do step by step. Ooh, let’s try this one. What does it say? Put up ‘Ask A Question’ tag. G: Ask a question! P: Great. Lots of people have questions about climate change—whether it’s really happening, how do we know it’s happening, why is there such a controversy about it? To address some of those questions, I’d like to take a step back and ask a really simple question: what is climate change? Let’s see what else is in here that we might need. What’s this one? Pretend to dig through it and put up ‘Investigate’ tag. G: Investigate! P: Awesome! Sometimes planning an investigation means breaking down the question. When I ask, “what is climate change?” I want to know what climate is. What is climate? P: Then I want to know how climate changes. How does climate change? Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 5 P: Last, I want to know if our climate is changing. Is our climate changing? P: Great! Here’s our investigation: we’ll find out what climate is and how climate changes, then determine whether our climate is changing. Science on a Sphere P: Does anyone have any ideas about the first part of this investigation, climate? What is climate? G: It’s a hoax, a scam, an invention of the press, weather, weather over time, it’s all a lie! P: These are all great answers. I’ve heard it has something to do with the weather. As it turns out, we have a lot of information about the weather. I have books, diagrams, maps. Take out books, diagrams, and map. Look, I have these pictures taken from space that show the weather of the whole world. Look at picture. Hm. Yes. Oh, I see. What, did you want to see? Turn the picture around so the audience can see. This is kind of small. Maybe we can just spend the next twenty minutes looking at this one at a time. Oh, you don’t like that idea? You know what, this map isn’t really accurate anyway. It’s flat and the world is round. I wish I had something really big and round that everyone could see. Something we could all look at to see the weather. G: Look behind you, stupid. P: No, I’m not sure my head is big enough. Oh, you mean this? NOAA logo. P: What a great idea! This is called “Science on a Sphere” and it was given to Pacific Science Center by NOAA, which is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Can we get a big round of applause for NOAA? G: Clap clap clap P: We can use the sphere to look at information about the entire Earth. A map like this isn’t useful for finding your way to Starbucks or grandmother’s house. You can’t see smaller things such as roads or buildings, but you can see information about larger things, such as landmasses, oceans, and the weather. Climate Vs Weather P: What were we investigating again? G: Climate change, climate, the weather, hoaxes, the evil lying media. P: Fantastic! Let’s look at the weather. Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 6 Clouds: Real Time P: Can someone tell me what you see? G: Clouds. White streaks. Weather! Climate! P: Satellites, take pictures like these of the Earth, and scientists can use these images to predict whether it will be cloudy, and even if it might rain. Is this climate? G: Yes. No. We don’t know. P: Lots of people get confused, but this information is only showing us the weather, not climate. This is climate. Temperature Anomaly: Monthly P: Wait, this isn’t climate! This is just a white globe with some red stuff and blue stuff. I’m going to need a key to find out what these colors mean. Hm. I think I have a key somewhere. Take out key. Do you think this will help? G: You are preposterous. Ha ha ha! P: Actually, this is exactly the kind of key we need! Turn key over to show the color code. This kind of key tells me what these colors mean. Select a guest. Hi, what’s your name? G: Hillary. P: Excellent, Hillary. Since we’re seeing a bunch of white, can you tell me what white means using this key? Hand the key to the guest. G: White is average 20th century temperature. P: Excellent! On this map, white is the average and blue or red is different from the average. We got the white by averaging the temperature for that month in that location from 1901 to 2000. For instance, in Seattle the average temperature in September for the past century is around 61 degrees Farenheit. If this September our average temperature is warmer than 61 degrees, Seattle will look red on this image. If our average temperature is colder than 61 degrees, Seattle will look blue on this map. What’s the difference between looking at this information and the weather information we saw earlier? G: Averages? P: We’re dealing with weather over a long period of time—patterns that emerge through decades of information. The average temperature—the white color—is an example of climate because we’re looking at 100 years’ worth of temperatures. Okay, now we know what climate is. Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 7 Cue: What is climate? Weather patterns that emerge over at least 30 years. Heat-Trapping Blanket P: What was the next part of my investigation? Cue: How does climate change? P: How does climate change? This is a hard question. Since climate is something that occurs over decades, centuries, and even millennia, how and why it changes can be difficult to measure. To figure this out, we need to talk about what makes our climate. We know that how close our planet is to the Sun affects our temperature, which can drive wind and storms. But Earth’s temperature isn’t just a result of being close or far from the Sun. One way we know this is by looking at other planets. Venus P: This is Venus. Venus is closer to the Sun than we are, and it’s way hotter. But Mercury is even closer to the Sun than Venus, but Venus is still hotter than Mercury. It’s the hottest planet in the solar system. Any clue why that is? G: Girls are from Venus? P: Venus is so hot because of its atmosphere. Atmosphere is the gas all around you. The color that you see on this image are thick clouds made mostly of carbon dioxide. Has anyone heard of carbon dioxide? G: Yes. No. Maybe so. P: Carbon dioxide is a kind of gas, and there is a whole lot of it on Venus. The gas acts like a heat-trapping blanket all over the planet, making it warmer. Our own atmosphere has just a little carbon dioxide—let’s check out how much. Carbon dioxide concentration GEOS-5 model Pause dataset. P: This model shows carbon dioxide levels. Red is high concentration of carbon dioxide and blue is low. Play dataset. P: As you can see, there are high concentrations of carbon dioxide changes. This is due to movement of the air. But what would happen if we had more carbon dioxide overall in our atmosphere, if carbon dioxide works like a heat-trapping blanket? G: We would get hotter. P: Right, so we’re addressing our how to change the climate question—we could change the composition of Earth’s atmosphere. But how would we do that? Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 8 Carbon Balance P: To find out, let’s figure out where carbon dioxide comes from. Everyone take a deep breath. Hold it! Hold it! Hold it! Now breathe out. Does anyone know the name of the gas you just breathed out? G: Carbon dioxide? P: Yeah! All animals release carbon dioxide. I happen to have some people and animals right here! Take out the medium-sized red block with people and animals. Can I get a volunteer to help me with this? What is your name? G: Donald. P: Donald, go ahead and place that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, right here. Point to one side of the carbon balance. Whoa, Donald! All that carbon dioxide we breathe out unbalanced the Earth. Maybe there’s something that takes in carbon dioxide that will put the balance back? G: Plants? P: Yeah! And I happen to have some plants right here! Give them the smallsized blue block with trees and plants on it and the medium-sized blue block with trees and plants on it. These are all the plants on land. Can I get a volunteer to help me with this as well? What is your name? G: Bernie. P: Awesome, Bernie. Go ahead and put these plants over here. Whoa, Bernie! You balanced our Earth’s atmosphere! Go ahead and ring the bell—that means that nature balances out the amount of carbon dioxide in the air. Okay, but aside from that carbon dioxide in the air, I’ve heard of carbon in other things. Who’s heard the term “carbon based life”? Can I get a show of hands? G: *show of hands* P: Yeah, we all have carbon in us, and so does every living thing on Earth. Okay Donald, I’m going to give you some more carbon. Give them the large-sized red block with decomposition of banana, etc. Where do you think this carbon comes from? G: Bananas? P: Where do you think the carbon in living things go after they die? Some of it combines with oxygen and goes into the air—go ahead and put that on the Earth. Now, some of the carbon gets buried. After millions of years, that carbon is compressed by the Earth into what we call fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas— but this carbon doesn’t go into the air. Instead of putting it into the atmosphere, can you just put it on the floor? Okay, that’s underground. Okay Bernie, I have something else for you—what do you think this is? Give them the large-sized blue ocean block with waves, the small-sized blue block with sea life, and Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 9 the medium-sized blue block with sea life. G: The ocean. With crabs. P: Right! Ocean water absorbs carbon dioxide—this is a chemical reaction between the gas and the liquid. And life in the ocean, like ocean plants, can also take in some carbon dioxide. Okay Bernie, go ahead and put the ocean on your side. What happened? G: It balanced. P: Okay, ring the bell! Awesome! This is what is constantly occurring on Earth all the time. Natural sources release carbon and natural phenomenon, called carbon sinks, take carbon back in. Okay, let’s go back to fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas. We use some of these things for fuels. When we burn the carbon in these things, where do you think it goes? G: Into the atmosphere. P: Into the atmosphere! Donald, take the fossil fuels and put them on your side. Give them the small-sized red block with fossil fuels. We’re out of balance again. Bernie, is there anything you can do? Give him the medium-sized blue ocean block with waves. The ocean is really big, and can hold a lot of carbon. Natural processes can compensate for some of what we do. Ring that bell again. But we’re using fossil fuels—and we’re using them fast. What do we use them for? G: Cars! P: Donald, here are some cars! Give them the small-sized red block with cars on it. We’re out of balance. What else—how does a lot of the world power their homes? G: Coal? P: Coal! Donald, have some coal-powered electricity. Give them the small-sized red block with plugs and outlets on it. What else—how about we get all the things we have? G: Stores? P: Industry, yeah! Give them the small-sized red block with smokestacks on it. Now we’re terrible out of balance. The ocean doesn’t take up carbon quickly enough to compensate, and there aren’t enough plants to take all of it in. (The carbon balance activity can continue based on visitor interest. If the presenter is comfortable discussing ocean acidification, they can remove the small-sized blue block with sea life on it to show that carbon emissions will affect ocean life. If the presenter is comfortable discussing deforestation, they can remove the small-sized blue block with trees and plants on it to show that plants are able to take in less carbon.) Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 10 Now we know how we could change the climate—change the composition of the atmosphere. How does climate change? Change the composition of the atmosphere. P: Thanks to Donald and Bernie for helping us figure it out! Give them a round of applause! Climate Change Let’s get back to our investigation. What’s left? Is our climate changing? P: Hm. So, one thing we would need to know is whether the composition of our atmosphere has changed, because that’s how climate changes. We know that logically, burning fossil fuels is a process that should put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and we also know there is no natural process to compensate for it. Take off fossil fuels from balance—this is for later, if you wish to continue using the balance throughout. But how can we see whether the composition of our atmosphere has actually changed? Let’s go back to my science toolbox. What’s this one? Pretend to dig through it and put up ‘Analyze Data’ tag. G: Analyze data. P: Awesome! Data is information, and we’ve been looking at a lot of information already. We saw that map that showed carbon dioxide moving over the globe—but where did we get that information? Carbon Tracker – Slide Scale 2001-2010 Pause movie P: Here is another map showing carbon. The red is high concentrations and blue low, just like the other one, but this one also shows where we are getting this information. Each of those white circles is the location of an instrument that measures carbon dioxide. For the last fifty years, we have been using such instruments, and we’ve seen that there is more carbon dioxide in the winter—when we don’t have plants taking in carbon dioxide. If you wish, take the small-sized blue block with plants and trees on it off the scale to demonstrate. But in the spring, plants grow back again, so by summer they’re taking up lots of carbon dioxide. Put small-sized blue block with plants and trees on it back on. But we also found out something else. Watch the data as we move from 2001 to 2010. Play movie P: What do you notice? G: More red. Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 11 P: More red. Carbon dioxide levels, though they fluctuate from season to season, have been rising over time. Therefore, composition of our atmosphere has been changing. In fact, the data shows us that carbon dioxide levels have been sharply increasing for the past one hundred and fifty years, which correlates with exactly when we began burning a lot of fossil fuels. But has this caused a change in climate? Let’s analyze more data. Temperature Anomaly: Monthly P: Remember, on this map white is the average temperature. Red is above average and blue is below. What do you notice now? G: More red. P: More red, exactly. Temperatures have been higher than average over more and more parts of the globe over the last thirty years or so, and this correlates with that increase in carbon dioxide we saw. However, we said that climate was something that took place over not only decades, but hundreds of years. Use A Model P: How can we tell whether this will continue to happen? Let’s go back to my science toolbox. What’s this one? Pretend to dig through it and put up ‘Use a model’ tag. G: Use a model. P: Great. A model is something scientists use to take the data we have to extrapolate what could happen in the future. Although models can’t tell us what will actually happen, a model is different than “just a guess”. Computer models can use more data and variables than the human mind can process, and use all of that information to build on what we currently know. We can then feed different parameters into a model to figure out what climate will look like in the future. Climate Model: Temperature Change (Hadley a1b) - 1870 – 2100 Pause P: In this model, red is warmer temperatures and blue is cooler. This model starts in the year 1870, so first we are looking at real data. As we move past the early 2000s, we are looking at projected temperatures. Let’s watch it to see what happens. Play. P: What happened? G: It got warmer. P: It got warmer. There are other models that use different parameters— different growth in population or industry, which might affect different levels of carbon dioxide, which might affect the temperature. However, all Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 12 the models show that as we continue to release carbon dioxide into the air, climate will change. That was the final part of our investigation. Is our climate changing? Yes. P: Now what do we do? Let’s go back to my science toolbox. Sea Level Rise P: What’s this one? Pretend to dig through it and put up ‘Construct an Explanation’ tag. G: Construct an explanation. P: Yeah! By analyzing this data and using models, we’re able to construct a pretty good explanation. We know humans are burning more fossil fuels than ever before. We know that carbon dioxide levels are increasing. We know that carbon dioxide traps heat. We know that the climate is changing, so we can say with a good amount of certainty that by burning fossil fuels we are a part of climate change. Now that we have that explanation, we can use it to explain other things. For instance, has anyone heard that the sea level may be rising? G: Yes, no, this is a liberal hoax. Sea Level Trends 1993 - 2012 P: Once again we can use data to determine that over the last twenty years, the sea level has been rising. On this map, the red areas are the places where the sea level has risen the most and the blue is where the sea level went down. As we move from 1993 to 2012, we can see that the sea level is gradually moving up. Why might this be? G: More water in the ocean, climate change, the ocean just does that, it doesn’t matter. P: We can use other data to answer this question. We know from looking at satellite imagery that ice on land is melting; we know that when ice melts it turns to water and that water on land runs off until it eventually ends up in the ocean. We also know that ice melts as a result of warmer temperatures. You can also prove in a lab that water expands due to warmer temperatures. If we put all this data together, we can construct another explanation: climate change is causing land ice to melt and water to expand, which causes the sea level to rise. What would happen if the sea level continued to rise? G: Mass hysteria. P: Yeah, beaches and lake front property could be affected, as well as animals that rely on those environments and industries that rely on those animals. Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 13 Solutions P: Okay, but what do we do about this? Does anyone have any ideas? If no one has any ideas, remind them that fossil fuels are causing the problem. G: Drive fewer cars, ride your bike, etc. P: These are all great ideas, but this is a big problem. It affects the whole planet. To really fix this, we’re going to need to get a lot of people involved. How can we do that? One last time, I’m going to turn to science to answer my question. What’s this one? Pretend to dig through it and put up ‘Communicate Information’ tag. G: Communicate information. P: Yeah! If we can communicate with enough people about climate change, maybe we can make some large-scale solutions that fit the scale of the problem. Instead of one person riding their bike, we can make better bike lanes. Instead of just choosing not to drive your car, we can promote electric cars. Instead of trying to conserve energy, we can incentivize solar power. Does anyone have any other ideas for big, large scale solutions? G: More people can ride the bus. P: So we definitely need community-level solutions to address the problem, but we need to make sure we communicate correctly about what is happening. This is actually one of the biggest problems scientists. They have all of this data that shows what emits carbon dioxide, that carbon levels are rising, that carbon traps heat, that temperatures are changing, that water is expanding and land ice is melting. Scientists are trying to get the word out, but the message gets garbled. Facebook P: But more and more these days, the whole world is connected. This data is showing us all the people in the world connected by Facebook friendships. That’s a lot of people and a lot of communication happening, and we know that human beings are innovators. They invent things all the time. The more we know about climate change and the more information that reaches everyone around us, the more we can do to address it. Conclusion P: That’s our show everyone; give yourselves a big round of applause! G: Clap clap clap P: I’ll be up here for the next little bit if you want to come chat or have any Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 14 questions. Thanks and have a great rest of your day! Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 15 Appendix Resources Specific: Carbon emissions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8c7vvAyqQvA Carbon cycle: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/research/themes/carbon/ Sea level rise: http://ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/critical-issues-sea-level-rise/ General: Climate change: o http://climate.nasa.gov/ o http://climateinterpreter.org Next Generation Science Standards Science Practices: First Grade o Use observations (firsthand or from media) to describe patterns in the natural world in order to answer scientific questions. (1-ESS1-1) Third Grade o Construct an argument with evidence, data, and/or a model. (3-LS21) Middle School o Analyze and interpret data to provide evidence for phenomena. (MSLS2-1) o Ask questions to identify and clarify evidence of an argument. (MSESS3-5) High School o Evaluate the evidence behind currently accepted explanations or solutions to determine the merit of arguments. (HS-LS2-8) Disciplinary Core Ideas: Kindergarten o Asking questions, making observations, and gathering information are helpful in thinking about problems. (secondary to K-ESS3-2) Fifth Grade o Matter cycles between the air and soil and among plants, animals, and microbes as these organisms live and die. Organisms obtain gases, and water, from the environment and release waste matter (gas, liquid, or solid) back into the environment. (5-LS2-1) Middle School o Human activities, such as the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, are major factors in the current rise in Earth’s mean surface temperature (global warming). Reducing the level of climate change and reducing human vulnerability to whatever climate changes do occur depend on the understanding of climate science, Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 16 engineering capabilities, and other kinds of knowledge, such as understanding human behavior and applying that knowledge wisely in decisions and activities. (MS-ESS3-5) High School o Photosynthesis and cellular respiration are important components of the carbon cycle, in which carbon is exchanged among the biosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and geosphere through chemical, physical, geological, and biological processes. (HS-LS2-5) o Changes in the atmosphere due to human activity have increased carbon dioxide concentrations and thus affect climate. (HS-ESS2-4) o Current models predict that, although future regional climate changes will be complex and varied, average global temperatures will continue to rise. The outcomes predicted by global climate models strongly depend on the amounts of human-generated greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere each year and by the ways in which these gases are absorbed by the ocean and biosphere. (secondary to HS-ESS3-6) Crosscutting Concepts: Middle School o Small changes in one part of a system might cause large changes in another part. (MS-LS2-4) o Stability might be disturbed either by sudden events or gradual changes that accumulate over time. (MS-ESS3-5) o Scientific knowledge can describe the consequences of actions but does not necessarily prescribe the decisions that society takes. (MSESS3-4) High School o Empirical evidence is required to differentiate between cause and correlation and make claims about specific causes and effects. (HSLS2-8, HS-LS4-6) o Changes and rates of change can be quantified and modeled over very short or very long periods of time. Some system changes are irreversible. (HS-ESS3-5) o When investigating or describing a system, the boundaries and initial conditions of the system need to be defined and their inputs and outputs analyzed and described using models. (HS-ESS3-6) Credits Contributors: Joy DeLyria, Science Interpretation Program (creator) Holly Csiga, Presentation Supervisor (creator of the Carbon Balance demo) Craig Matsuda, Exhibit Developer (carbon balance props) Dr. Chris Sabine, PMEL Director (consulting on the Carbon Balance demo) Lauren Slettedahl, Interpretation Programs Coordinator (props) NNOCCI Study Circle (heat-trapping blanket metaphor, climate change solutions) Works Cited "Climate Interpreter." Climate Interpreter. 2014. Web. <http://climateinterpreter.org/>. Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 17 "OCEANS & SEA LEVEL RISE." Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. 2010. Web. <http://www.climate.org/topics/sea-level/>. Title: Climate Change ©2016 Pacific Science Center 18