Download CC AND MIGRATION

CC AND MIGRATION;
A Comparison between Archipelago
Developing Country and Continent
Developed Country
Triarko Nurlambang
Center for Applied Geography
The University of Indonesia
CC impact towards Migration ??
• Climate Change impacts; the never ending debates
- complexity understanding increase  less linear way of thinking
- political intervention vs academicians & NGOs influencion/advocation in creating public opinions (“CC
hysteria”; “mis-leading” public understanding; creates public confusion: better wait than do something
costly)
• Indonesia – Australia: a comparative study in the context of climate change
- Different geographical settings (physical and social-culture landscape); displacement, vulnerability
- Demographic Theory: migration flow from Indonesia to Australia (hypothesis)
• Is there any direct Climate Change impact on migration?
- Uncertain impact : problem of understanding decision making process (as well as complexity of phenomena)
and prediction methods. Moving decision is more complex process of making decision for most Asian people
(including Indonesia; if not forced) compare to Australia
- In terms of living system (system thinking: adaptive and mitigation): from mental models to reality, CC is
seems as an evolution change process rather than revolution (we still have time to improve adaptive capacity)
- Those problems gear to the capacity of adaptation development (especially dealing with localities
understanding)
• The Good, the Bad, and The Ugly scenario (Oli Brown, 2008)
• Conclusion
- CC and migration is a systemic complex phenomena where Ina. Delaying intervention on “BAU” may be top
priority.
- Aussie can be put as one entity of regional system for living
- So what is the common ground between Ina. and Aussie dealing with CC and migration?  building
learning process for better understanding
INDONESIA AND CC PREDICTION
• Warming 0.2 to 0.3°C per decade
• Increase in annual precipitation across islands, except in the south
(projected to decline by 15%)
• Change in the seasonality of precipitation; parts of Sumatra and
Borneo may become 10-30% wetter by 2080’s (Dec-Feb); Jakarta
projected to be 5- 15% drier (Jun-Aug)
• 30-day delay in the annual monsoon, 10% increase in rainfall later in
the crop year (April-June), and up to 75% decrease in rainfall later in
the dry season (July–September)
• Mean sea level increase 31 mm by the next decade; and it is
predicted that about 2,000 island in Indonesia will disappear by 2030
• In case of Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, it is predicted that by
the 2050 some settlement areas and main harbour Tanjung Priok will
be flooded
Direct Climate
Changes
Indirect Climate
Changes
Type of Movement
Time Span
Gradual climate
change
Chronic disasters,
such as drought,
degradation
Seasonal labour
migration. Temporary
circulation
Seasonal
Gradual climate
change
Chronic disasters
drought/ degradation
Contract labour
migration
Yearly
Sudden or gradual
climate change
Natural disasters/
severe drought/
famine/ floods
Forced/ distress
migration
Temporary
Sudden or gradual
climate change
Extreme temperatures/
sea level rise
Permanent migration
Lifetime
Source: Raleigh, et. al (2008)
Inter-relation between Environmental System and
Economic System may creates migration
Environmental system
Economic system
Sea level rise
Extreme events
Migration
Air, Water, Land
quality and
availability
Economic
Pressures
Changes in emissions
and land cover
Change in
Production and
consumption
patterns
Policies
Mitigation
Adaptation
Vulnerability
Environmental
Pressures
Econ. impacts
Envir. impacts
Climate change
and variability
Changes in Water,
Land, Air, Capital,
Labour stock
and productivity
Adaptive (and mitigation) capacity developing
Ecology
Ecology
Economy
Economy
Social Structure
Social Structure
Attention
Attention
Metaphysics
Metaphysics
Epistemology
Epistemology
Cognitive
Process
Cognitive Process
Westerners
Orientation
Source: Nisbett, Richard E., 2003
Asians Orientation
Climate Change is seems
an evolution rather than
revolution  adaptive and
mitigation capacity have
greater opportunity to be
improved
Pattern of Change
Continue
change
Continue change &
accelerated
Un-continue change
(incremental change)
Public Awareness and
Understanding: the Fuel of
Change
Public
Policies :
Government
Reorienting Education to Climate Change
Impact towards Sustainable Development
Shifting to Sustainable
Lifestyle: Changing
Consumption and
Production Pattern
Ethics, Culture, Equity:
Sustainable as a Moral
Imperative
Mobilizing for
Action
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 1997
Public
Action :
Public
initiative
Scenario
Assumption
Typology of climate change impact (2050)
The Good
Population peaks mid-century around 9
billion and declines thereafter towards 7
billion
Rapid change in economic structure (less
materials intensity)
Clean Management Development
All big emission producer countries join the
international carbon emission commitment
Relatively low
Atmosphere concentration of CO2
stabilize around 600 ppm
Average temperature rise by 1.80 C
Sea level rise 18-38 cm
Migration increase by 5 – 10% along the
displacement areas
The Bad
Population peaks mid-century around 9
billion and declines thereafter towards 7
billion
Rapid change in economic structure (less
materials intensity)
The international commitment to reduce gas
emission is delay due to remain usage of
fossil fuel
Some funds are invested to adapt but not
enough
Relatively quite high
Atmosphere concentration of CO2
stabilize around 850 ppm
Average temperature rise by 2.40 C
(Stern report: a 30C temperature rise
would mean 1 to 4 billion people suffer
water shortage)
Sea level rise 21-48 cm
Millions of people would be temporarily
displaced by individual extreme weather
events.
The Ugly
Population peaks mid-century around 9
billion and declines thereafter towards 7
billion
Rapid change in economic structure
A “business as usual” scenario in
consuming fossil fuel
Relatively high
Atmosphere concentration of CO2
around 1550 ppm
Average temperature rise by 4.00 C
Sea level rise 29-59 cm
It may exceeding the 200 millions people
displaced by climate change
Oli Brown, 2008
Surely a quality education which covered Life Skills and based on the achievement of
sustainable development
Level of the learner
processes
Level of the
learner processes
Implementation
of good policies
Content
Environment
Learning
What the
learner brings
Resources
Supportive
legislative
framework
Seeks out
learners
Means to measure
learning outcomes
“Education is an indispensable element for achieving sustainable development”
GoI Response to CLIMATE CHANGE
- As a consequence of COP-13 UNFCCC in Bali,
(December 2007), it has established a BALI ROAD
for 2012 and Post Kyoto Protocol.
- GoI established Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim
(DNPI); National Board for Climate Change
(Presidential Decree No.46/Th.2008), The
President of RI as the Head, Vice of Head:
Ministerial Coordination for Welfare Affairs, and 17
Ministries, and Meteorology and Climate Bureau as
the members. The MOE appointed to be supervisor
- GoI has allocated about 2 thousand billion rupiah
(+/- 256 billion Aus$) for improving mitigation
capacity towards CC.
Figure 1.The global carbon cycle.
Source: United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP)
http://www.unep.org/