Download CLIMATE CHANGE AND GHGs INVENTORY IN SLOVAKIA

CLIMATE CHANGE AND GHGs INVENTORY IN SLOVAKIA
Milan Lapin, Comenius University Bratislava, www.dmc.fmph.uniba.sk & Slovak National Climate Program
Janka Szemesová, Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratislava, www.ghg-inventory.gov.sk
Introduction
The Slovak Ministry of the Environment (www.enviro.gov.sk) is responsible for national environmental policy
including climate change and air protection issues. It has the responsibility to develop acts, and amendments to existing legislation. Legislation proposals are commented by all ministries and other relevant bodies. Following the
commenting process, proposed acts are negotiated in the Legislative Council of the Government, approved by the
Government, and finally by the Parliament. The Ministry of Environment cooperates with other ministries, such as
Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Transport, Posts and
Telecommunications, and the Ministry of Construction and Regional Development.
Slovakia, as a member state of the EU (the EU-15 commitment was adopted in the form of so-called burden
sharing agreement) has committed itself to an 8% reduction of GHGs emissions compared to the base year 1990.
According to the emission inventory updated in April 15, 2009, Slovakia has achieved a reduction of total anthropogenic emissions of GHGs, stated as CO2 equivalent, of approximately 36% compared the year 1990 without
emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). Total GHG emissions in the Slovakia are
stable or slightly increasing due to recovery of economic activities, increase in transport category and expected increase in actual emissions of F–gases (mainly HFCs and SF6) in spite of high annual increase of GDP in last years.
This achievement is the result of following several processes and factors:
- Higher share of services in the generation of the GDP.
- Higher share of gas fuels in the final consumption of energy resources.
- Restructuring of industries.
- Gradual decrease in energy demands in certain heavy energy demanding sectors (except for metallurgy).
- Impact of legislative measures influencing directly or indirectly the generation of greenhouse gas emissions.
The Czecho-Slovak National Climate Program (NCP) was established by the Ministry of Environment on January 1st, 1991. Four main tasks of NCP were as follows: activities according to the World Climate Program recommendations, climate change monitoring and data elaboration, climate change impacts assessment in different socioeconomic sectors, communicating Climate Change (i.e. preparing reports and information for ministries and general
public, participation in conferences with papers on Climate Change issues and issuing papers and other publications
on obtained results). As many as 23 subjects have participated directly in the Slovak NCP activities since 1993
(split of Czecho-Slovak NCP to Czech and Slovak NCP). Slovak NCP issued 12 monographs, participated in five
Slovak National Communications on Climate Change (issued by the Ministry of Environment in 1995, 1997, 2001,
2005 and 2010 (planed), approved by the Slovak Government) and took part in several scientific projects on issues
influenced by Climate Change. Slovak NCP also co-organized at least one seminary or conference a year. Inventory
and reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission was only a marginal topic of the NCP, these issues have been
coordinated by the National Inventory System at the directly by the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute under
legal responsibility of the Ministry of the Environment.
Climate changes, monitoring, trends and variability, climate change scenarios up to the year 2100, vulnerability
to climate change assessments and adapting options for Slovakia are also included into the 4 th Slovak National
Communication on Climate Change (SNCCC). These topics have been discussed also in the 1 st, 2nd and 3rd SNCCC.
The published assessments have been based mainly on the Slovak National Climate Program (SNCP) and corresponding research projects results. Full text is on: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/slknc4.pdf since Dec.
2005. The 5th SNCCC will contain more comprehensive results on all topics discussed in the previous SNCCCs,
including evaluation of extreme weather events impact on different socio-economic sectors and the scenarios of
extreme weather occurrence up to the time frame 2100, focusing on the following three elements: action and cooperation in the area of vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The submission of the 5th Slovak National Communication on Climate Change shall be reported by 1 st January 2010, including information under Article 7, paragraph 2,
of the Kyoto Protocol (decisions 10/CP.13 and 8/CMP.3).
National circumstances
Articles 4 and 12 of the UNFCCC require that Parties to the UNFCCC develop, periodically update, publish, and
make available to the Conference of the Parties national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and
removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled under the Montreal Protocol.
The National Inventory System for the GHG emissions (www.ghg-inventory.gov.sk) has been established and
officially announced by the Decision of Minister of the Environment of the Slovakia on 1 st January 2007 in the official bulletin: Vestnik, Ministry of Environment, XV, 3, 2007, page 19 (http://www.enviro.gov.sk/ servlets/files/16715). In agreement with the paragraph 30(f) of the Annex to the decision 15/CMP.1 which gives defini-
tion of all qualitative parameters for the national inventory systems, description of the quality assurance and quality
control plan according to the Article 5, paragraph 1 is also required.
Brand new and high level co-ordination body has been established on June 2008 according to the Resolution of
the Slovak Government No 416/2008 from 18 June 2008. UN Secretary General Commission for Climate and Energy Issues is a competent body to define specific tasks and means necessary for further analyses to develop national strategies and particular measures in tackling climate change, adaptation and support of renewable energy
sources. Under this Commission there is also working a wide expert group responsible for preparing of all practical
inputs and studies as required for further progress. In the next future, this new, two stage structures, will be the final
responsible body to asses draft of annual inventory and to propose further steps to improve.
Supporting institutions founded by the Ministry of Environment play an important role. These include the Slovak
Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) (www.shmu.sk), the Water Research Institute, and the Slovak Environmental Agency. Academic and research institutions (i.e. the Forestry Research Institute Zvolen, the Transportation
Research Institute Zilina, the Slovak Agricultural University Nitra, the Slovak Technical University Bratislava,
Faculty of Mathematics, Physics & Informatics, Bratislava, and the Slovak Academy of Science), non-governmental organizations, and associations of interested groups (the Slovak Energy Agency, PROFING, EFRA Zvolen,
SZCHKT, Detox, SPIRIT, Ecosys, veQ s.r.o.) are involved in the process of development and implementation of
policy and measures aimed to mitigate climate change impacts.
Slovakia has been independent since January 1st, 1993, after splitting of the former Czech and Slovak Federative
Republic. In April 1993 Slovakia acceded to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and
subsequently to the World Trade Organization (WTO). In September 2000 Slovakia became the 30 th member of the
OECD. In May 2004 Slovakia joined the European Union and on 1 January 2009 joined the Euro zone.
Transition from a centrally planned economy to a modern and market oriented type was difficult, connected with
a significant economic recession accompanied with high unemployment rate (peaking at 19.2% in 2001), high inflation, low incomes and significant changes in life standards, namely for specific groups and in specific regions
outside the capital. Main recession was lasting from 1989 to 1993, when the GDP decreased by almost one quarter
and then, after 1994, revival was observed, caused mostly by external demand. Extensive restructuring of economy
including the technical innovation and privatization has been reflected not only in ongoing increase in the GDP
growth rate but also in the higher share of services on the total GDP. Currently Slovakia is a high-income economy
with one of the fastest growth in the EU and OECD. Growth acceleration from 2003 was and at present is still
caused namely by the dynamics of automobile production, development of electrical engineering, cement and lime
production and booming of construction sector. Growth of the GDP exceeded the overall productivity of the economy (GDP increased by 3.4% in 2001, by 4.8% in 2002, by 4.7% in 2003, by 5.5% in 2004, by 6.5% in 2005, by
8.5% in 2006, by 10.4% in 2007 and by 6.4% in 2008, in 2009 a decrease by about 4% is expected).
A comparison of the GDP trend with the trend of aggregate emissions of greenhouse gasses shows that Slovakia
is one of few countries where the trend of emissions is decoupled from the GDP increase. However, by international
comparison, the generation of greenhouse gasses per capita still remains one of the highest in the Europe.
Without introduction of effective measures Slovakia will contribute to further increase of GHG emissions due to
anticipated growth of the GDP and recovery of economic activities. Therefore, the investment strategy to tackle
GHG emissions is one of the most important objectives.
In 2007, the energy sector reached a 2.7% share on the total GDP (according statistical information of Ministry of
Finance). Energy intensity calculated on purchasing power is gradually decreasing, and was 1.9 times higher than
the average recorded in the EU-15. The reason is a high proportion of heavy-energy-demanded industry contributing to the GDP.
Occurred changes when final consumption of brown coal in 2006 was only 31% from this in 1990, light fuel oil
consumption in 2006 decreased by 95% and heavy fuel oil by 70% compared to 1990. As an individual example:
production of liquid steel in Slovakia increased from 1990 to 2005 by 27.7% while the coal consumption to produce
energy decreased by 2.3%. Carbon intensity per metric ton of liquid steel has been improved by 5.2% during the
same period. There is a lot of further technological and innovation steps made by individual operators to increase
production intensity and to meet strict environmental requirements.
Agriculture, land use and forestry production shows a long lasting decrease in the share of GDP and employment.
Share of GDP (in constant prices) was 4.7% in 2006. Over the last 10 years, only a slight decrease in acreage of
utilized agriculture soil was recorded. The percentage of tilled areas reached 29% in 2006. The share of total acreage of forest soil is approximately 39% in 2006.
Assessment of waste generation and handling pursuant to the new Waste catalogue was conducted for the first
time in 2002 (the Act 223/2001 on Waste and implementing Regulation 284/2001 on the Waste Catalogue). This
legislation transposed the European Waste Catalogue and has brought about fundamentals changes in waste balance
and waste recording. The overall trend in waste management is towards an increase of material and energy recovery
and a decrease in the disposal by incineration and land filling.
The household sector contributed to total energy consumption by 21% in 2006. More than 70% of total energy
consumption is used for heating; approximately 20% to heating of water, and the rest about 10% is for other activities such as lighting, cooking and use of electrical devises. The most important energy source is fossil fuels.
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Greenhouse gases emission inventory
The total national emission in the current inventory year 2007 was estimated to be 46 950.67 Gg (46.95 mil. metric tons) of CO2 equivalents without LULUCF sector and the net GHG emission was 43 754.23 Gg including the
sinks from LULUCF. The Slovakia reported the national emission from energy sector based on sectoral approach
data in 2007 to be 35 531.78 Gg CO2 equivalents including the transport emissions (6 719.36 Gg of CO2 equivalents), which represent decrease compare the base year by about 40% and also decrease compare to the previous
year by 5%. The transport subsector increases against previous year 2006 by 13% and comparable to the base year
by 33%. The GHGs inventory startet in 1993 and estimated complete emissions´ dataset from the base year 1990.
The total emissions from industrial processes sector in 2007 were estimated to be 5 825.32 Gg of CO2 equivalents. This represents an increase compared the base year by about 10%, but also decrease compared to previous
year by about 2%. The numbers were changed because the recalculation of all time series in the nitric acid production. Intensive growing of the industry production causes the increasing of emissions.
The total emissions from sector of solvent use were estimated to be 79.95 Gg of CO 2 equivalents this is decreasing comparable to previous year about 3%. The time series is now complete, the period 1990–1993 (before the SR
formation) is not sufficiency covered by statistical data (lack of the national statistics data) and the constant expert
judgment values for this period was used. The comparison with the base year is now possible, the increasing in
more than 4 and half time.
The emissions from agriculture sector were estimated to be 3 224.56 Gg of CO2 equivalents It is a decrease compared the base year by about 54% and minor increase comparable to the previous year. The agriculture sector is the
most decreasing sector compared to the base year 1990.
The total emissions and sinks from LULUCF sector were estimated to be –3 196.44 Gg of CO2 equivalents, the
whole time series 1990–2007 were recalculated according the new methodology1 and those emissions and sinks
were included into the submission. The estimation of emissions and sinks in the LULUCF sector are complicated to
explain with the consistent time series.
The emissions from waste sector were estimated to be 2 269.07 Gg of CO2 equivalents. The decrease comparable
to the previous inventory year is 5%, but compared to the base year the decrease was registered by more than 53%,
because of including the waste incineration from base year and other waste treatment activities into energy sector
(with energy use). The methodology has changed for wastewater treatment plants and the complete time series reconstruction caused the decreasing in the waste sector, but this is expected trend. The reallocation of energy used
waste incineration and recovery of landfill methane emissions were the driving force for the trend decreasing in the
last submission.
A major share of aggregated emission covers the energy sector by about 75.7%, the industrial processes sector
covers about 12.4%, the solvent use sector about 0.2%, the agriculture sector about 7.6% and the waste sector about
4.8%. The major share of aggregated emission covers CO 2 emissions by about 81.2%, CH4 emissions by about
9.7%, N2O emissions by about 8.5% and F-gases emissions by about 0.4%. The share of gases and sectors didn’t
change during last period.
Climate change and variability, vulnerability to climate change and adapting options
The Chapter 6 of SNCCC deals with the evaluation of research results on climate change and variability in Slovakia; preparation of regional scenarios of climate change till 2100; estimates of vulnerability of selected social and
economic sectors and proposal of adaptation measures to mitigate negative impacts and utilization of positive consequences of climate change in Slovakia. The data used come from the National Climate Program of the Slovakia,
research projects results, the reports of the IPCC and other relevant sources. Analysis of all documents confirms
that climate change and variability might result mostly in negative impacts. The territory of Slovakia is situated
between maritime and continental climate with high internal heterogeneity and the changes in atmospheric circulation are bringing specific impacts on the climate. Further to the changes in precipitation and temperatures related to
average conditions the particular increase of the frequency of extreme events (wind and rain storms, floods and
droughts and heat waves etc.) is expected. The analysis also shows that there are several effective solutions to mitigate potential damages caused by the climate change.
Totally nine General Circulation Models (GCMs, models of the atmospheric general circulation) from four world
climate centers have been utilized in Slovakia. The most frequently used are models CCCM (Canadian GCMs
CGCM2, CGCM3 and CGCM3.1) and GISS 1998 (US GCM). In Slovakia the IS92a, SRES A2 and B2/B1 emission scenarios have been adopted in GCMs scenarios utilization as alternative options. The method of statistical
downscaling is used primarily in regional modification of the GCMs outputs. This means that outputs from global
(regional) climate models are statistically interpolated to individual selected points in Slovakia. The sets of measured data are also applied. Recently, the dynamic methods of climatic scenarios downscaling have been adopted.
Climate change scenarios are provided with regard to annual development of individual climate elements for certain
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IPCC 2003 Good Practice Guidelines for LULUCF
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time horizons. The scenarios also include time scales of selected elements up to 2100. They are designed for several
climate elements, such as air temperature, atmospheric precipitation, global solar radiation, and air humidity.
An illustration of some scenarios for monthly average air temperature and monthly precipitation totals are shown
on web site: www.dmc.fmph.uniba.sk. The tables are designed for 50-year time horizons 2010 (1986-2035), 2030
(2006-2055) and 2075 (2051-2100) for both the territory of Central and whole Slovakia according to outputs of
three GCMs models. While temperature scenarios could be used for the whole territory of the Slovakia, precipitation scenarios vary at individual stations by more than 10% (in winter – higher increase of precipitation in the
North, in summer – greater decrease in the South). General increase of mean monthly air temperature by 1.8 –
4.8°C in the 2075 time frame is expected. Projected precipitation scenarios show only small changes in annual totals, but decrease in summer totals by about 10% (mainly in the South) and increase in winter totals by about 15%
(mainly in the North) is expected. Downscaling of the GCMs daily time series and extreme events indicates serious
change in occurrence of characteristic days with unusual weather events. The number of days with heavy precipitation and the highest precipitation totals may increase in summer by more than 40% at the end of the 21 st century.
The use of the outputs of scenarios in models describing the development of the plants generally showed the trend
for longer vegetation period as a possible increase of the impacts of weather extremes.
Assessment of vulnerability to climate change and projection of adapting options was prepared for socio-economic sectors: water management, water resources and hydrological cycle, agriculture and field ecosystems, forestry economy and forest ecosystems (some other sectors have been contacted). Based on climate change scenarios
and vulnerability assessment models there were selected serious negative impacts connected mainly with decrease
of water availability during the growing period and due to the occurrence of harmful weather events (drought,
heavy rains, floods, wild fires, heat waves, wind storms…). Introduction of new pests, invasive insects, diseases,
and weeds will also play an important role in the management ecosystems. The most negative climate change
impacts in Slovakia are connected with long drought periods and flash floods events.
dT N[°C]
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RN[%]
160
dTN = 0.0127x - 0.871
1.63°C trend in 128 yrs
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dTN
1
145
By 3 stations
0
-1
130
-2
By 203 stations
-3
115
RN
-4
-5
100
-6
-7
85
RN = -0.0265x + 102.2
-3.39% trend in 128 yrs
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By: M.Lapin and SHMI data
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
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1885
70
1880
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Figure 1. Temporal course of annual air temperature deviations (dTN) from the 1951-1980 average in Slovakia
(based on 3 stations) and annual areal precipitation totals (R N) in % of the 1901-1990 average in Slovakia (based
on 203 stations) in 1881-2008, linear trend included (by monthly SHMI data).
Continual monitoring of climatic changes has been realized at about 20 selected climatological and about 100
precipitation stations at the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI). Other elements of climate system
(hydrologic cycle, ecosystems, phenology, forests…) are also included in the monitoring system, some observations
are provided by other institutions than the SHMI.
The web site: www.dmc.fmph.uniba.sk contains also basic information on the climate change theory (Physics of
the Earth’s climate system, modeling of climate, climate change scenarios and impacts…) as well as the information on climate change development in Slovakia since 1871. The Figure 1 is only a sample from many figures and
tables updated frequently (monthly, seasonally, annually) on this web site.
References:
The 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Slovak National Communication on Climate Change. Slovak Ministry of the Environment, Full text of the
4th one is on: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/slknc4.pdf since Dec. 2005. Bratislava (1995, 1997, 2001, 2005).
National GHG Inventory Report of the Slovak Republic, published on 15 April 2009, Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute Bratislava www.ghg-inventory.gov.sk.
Statistical Yearbook 2008, Statistical Office, www.statistics.sk published on June 2009.
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