Download Sustainism is the New Modernism

System Transformation
New Approach for Achieving
Stable Growth,
Shared Prosperity,
Secured Peace &
Sustainable Planet
Suvit Maesincee
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
• Grand Challenges
• Global Dynamics
• Thriving in the 21st Century
• Food for Culture
Grand Challenges
The 20th Century
Challenges
Four terrible global tragedies
- Two brutal WWs
- A global pandemic
- A worldwide depression
The 21st Century
Challenges
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Source: Divided Nations
Global Economic Crisis
The Eurozone Chaos
The Arab Spring Uprisings
Consequences of Climate
Change
Cyber-Attacks
Pandemics
The Nuclear Worst Case
Scenario in Fukushima
Interaction Between Nature & Humanity
Nature
Humanity
Entropic
Flow
From Order
to Disorder
Negative-Entropic
Flow
From Disorder
to Order
Nature
The World of Imbalance
Humanity
Human-Nature
Imbalance
Human-Human
Imbalance
Humanity
Nature
Nature
The World of Rebalance
Humanity
Human-Nature
Rebalance
Human-Human
Rebalance
Humanity
Nature
Global Dynamics
Global Dynamics
Geo-Political
Change
Demographic
Climate
Change
Change
Global Dynamics
Geo-Political
Change
Demographic
Climate
Change
Change
The Transition of Power
Global GDP %
World Economic Structure
75
Developed Countries
50
The Triad
The Rise of the Rest
Developing Countries
25
The Rest of the World
1820
70
1913
50
73
2005
Source: The Economist
The Rise of Asia
The New USA
The Rise of the Asian Middle Class Sector
In the year 2000, the middle classes in
East Asia and the Pacific region were
estimated to be around one sixth of the
total global middle class (approx 72
million people or 1.4% of the global
population)
In 2030, the World Bank predicts this
proportion will rise to nearly half of the
total global middle class , approx 600
million people or 8.9%, accounting for
7.7% of global income
Source: Bussolo, Maurizio (2007)
World Bank, Australian Government
Global Dynamics
Geo-Political
Change
Demographic
Climate
Change
Change
The World Population Growth
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
2.5 bn
4.1bn
6.1bn
8.0bn
9.2bn
Resource
Constraints
• Shortage of Foods
• Shortage of Energy
• Shortage of Water
Source: UN, FAO, BBC
The First World of the Aging Industrialized Nations
South Korea
Developed
Countries
The
First
World
North America, Europe,
and Asia’s Pacific Rim
The
Second
World
The
Third
World
Developing
Countries
Aging
Society
Dynamic Young
Society
• It’s total population is
projected to decline by
almost 9% by 2050 (from
48.3 million to 44.1 million)
• Its working-age segment
is expected to drop by 36%
(from 32.9 million to 21.1
million)
• The number of citizen
aged 60 and above will
increase by almost 150%
(from 7.3 million to 18
million)
The Third World of fast growing, young, and
increasingly urbanized countries with poorer
economies and often weak governments
Developed
Countries
• Today, roughly nine out
of ten children under
the age of 15 live in
developing countries
The
First
World
The
Second
World
Developing
Countries
Aging
Society
• Over 70% of the world’s
population growth,
between now and 2050,
will be concentrated in
The
24 countries, all of
Third
which are classified by
World
the World Bank as low
income or lower-middle
Dynamic Young
income
Society
The Second World of fast growing & economically
dynamic countries with a healthy mix of young and
old inhabitants
Thailand’s
Potential
Supportive Ratio
The
First
World
7
The
Second
World
Brazil, Iran,
Mexico,
Thailand,
Turkey, and
Vietnam
The
Third
World
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2020
Source: Kua Wongboonsin
2050
Global Dynamics
Geo-Political
Change
Demographic
Climate
Change
Change
Asean countries are likely to face more severe
consequences of the climate change than the
global average due to limited adaptive capabilities
Level of Complexity and Integration
Local Climate Change Action parallel to
Global Action
Renewed Local Government Warsaw
Climate Roadmap to 2015
Local
Climate
Action
Durban Adaptation Charter
The Global Cities Covenant on Climate (Mexico Pact)
and the carbon Cities Climate Registry
Cancun Agreement
Copenhagen World Catalogue
of Local Climate Commitment
Local Government
Climate Roadmap
World Mayors Council
and others
Voluntary
climate action
1990
Durban
Copenhagen Accord
Bali action Plan
Global
Climate
Action
Kyoto Protocol
UNFCC
2005
2007
2009
2010 2011 2012 2013
Governing for Sustainability, p. 157
Food and Fuel Security
•
•
Food
•
•
•
•
•
Fuel
•
Focus on climate change mitigation or resilience plan
Improve farm productivity through education and other
supportive measure i.e. land utilization, irrigation
system, infrastructure and technology etc.
Offer incentive to attract more investment on food
production
Form a collaborative network with other countries to do
R&D on food security issue
Improve energy efficiency
Encourage on renewable energy
Classify and separate type of food base on purpose i.e.
food for hunger and food for energy and formulate plan
focusing on the purpose of each type of food
Form a collaborative network with other countries to do
R&D on energy issue
Offshore Farming
The 1st
Wave
Manufacturing
The 2nd
Wave
Services
The 3rd
Wave
Food & Agriculture
Resource wars – the world will demand 70 percent more food by 2050, outstripping
population growth
Cash-rich Arab and Asian governments are buying up arable farmland all over
developing world
- Chinese businesses are investing in South America and Africa, not only to gain access
to commodities, but to get in position to profit from sales to the emerging middle class
- China is also buying up large tracks of land throughout Africa to produce biofuels and
to produce food
- India's companies have formed a consortium to invest in corporate farming of oilseeds
in Latin America, most notably Uruguay and Paraguay
Thriving in the
st
21
Century
The Systemic Transformation Framework
Technology
•
Human life is mirrored in
nature, and vice versa
Nature
•
Balance the infinite growth
imperative & the finite
resources of Planet Earth
Systemic
Transformation
•
Bridging technology & real
needs of society
•
It is not high-tech or low-tech,
but appropriateness and
sustainable solutions
Humanity
Capitalism
• Capitalism with social and
environmental balance
Sustainism is the New Modernism,
Leading from the Emerging Future
In response to environmental imbalance &
social inequality, we see a shift from the
current Age of Postmodernism towards a New
Age of Sustainism
Modernism
Postmodernism
Sustainism
•
Make it
•
Use It
•
•
Machinelike
Environment
•
Socio-Technical
Environment
• Mirroring Nature in the
Digital Environment
Revitalize it
* Modified from Sustainism is the New Modernism
From Neo-Classical Paradigm to Ecological
Paradigm
Modernism
Post-Modernism
Planet
Society
Economy
Business
Sustainism
Business
Economy
Society
Planet
Neo-classical Paradigm
Ecological Paradigm
The Earth as a subsystem of the
Human Economy *
Human Economy as a subsystem
of the Earth’s Ecosystem *
* Meme Wars : The Creative Destruction of Neoclassical Economics
Change in Economic Development Models
State-Driven
Mercantilism
Centralized State
Free Market-Driven
Laissez-Faire
State-Market
Modernism
Post
modernism
NGOs
Stakeholder-Driven
Social-Market Economy
State
Market
NGOs
Sustainism
Eco-System Driven
Sustainable Economy
Modified from Leading from the Emerging Future
State
Market
Primary Societal Challenges
State-Driven
Mercantilism
• Stability
• Expansion
Free Market-Driven
Laissez-Faire
• Growth
• Distribution
Stakeholder-Driven
Social-Market
Economy
• Negative Externalities
• Inequality
Modernism
Post
modernism
Sustainism
• Green Society
Eco-System Driven
• Inclusive Growth
Sustainable
Economy
Modified from Leading from the Emerging Future
Driving Mechanism
State-Driven
Mercantilism
Commanding:
Hierarchy
Free Market-Driven
Laissez-Faire
Competing:
Markets
Modernism
Post
modernism
Stakeholder-Driven
Negotiating:
Social-Market Economy Stakeholder Dialogue
Sustainism
Eco-System Driven
Sustainable Economy
Modified from Leading from the Emerging Future
Co-creating:
Conscientious-based
Collective Action
You cannot have well humans on a sick Planet*
We are seeking for
• New ways to coexist with the planet
• New ways to deal with people
• New ways to secure profit
*Thomas Berry,
Cultural Historian
The New Ways to Coexist with the Planet
Planet
Profit
People
Imagined the
Limitless
Creative
Power of Limits
Perishable,
Disposable &
Expendable
Renewable,
Reusable &
Recyclable
Nature as
Resource
Nature as
Source
The Search for
Autonomy
Sustainism is the New Modernism
The Quest for
Embeddedness
The New Ways to Deal with People
The Power of
Knowledge
The Power of
Shared Knowledge
You are
what you have
You are
what you share
Rewarding
Competition
Rewarding
Cooperation
Exclusiveness
Inclusiveness
Appropriation
Open-Source
Exchange
An intention to
serve the well-being
of the few
An intention to
serve the well-being
of all*
Planet
Profit
People
Sustainism is the New Modernism
*Leading from the Emerging Future
The New Ways to Secure Profit
Planet
Profit
People
Scale &
Scope
Scarcity &
Proportionality
Control
Supply
Chain
Engaging in the
Open Collaborative
Network
Productivity
Generativity
Efficiency
Sustainability
Utility
Stewardship
The Third Industrial Revolution, P.225
Malthus Vs. Smith
•
The tension between the bad news and good news today resembles what
the world has faced before, at the onset of both the first and second
industrial revolutions
•
That tension boils down to the worldviews of two scholars, Thomas Robert
Malthus and Adam Smith, both of whom wrote in the late 1700s
•
Malthus argued that the growing population would overwhelm the world,
leading to widespread famine. Smith argued that businessmen could
adapt and innovate rapidly enough that productivity could increase faster
than consumption
•
Where Malthus saw “Disaster,” Smith saw “Opportunity”
•
While over time there have been eruptions of famine and shortage in
different parts of the world, Smith was right. As the first and second
industrial revolutions unfolded, opportunity has trumped scarcity
•
We believe that history is repeating itself and that Smith will be right again
Resource Revolution
Fundamental Logics of Resource Revolution
•
Finding opportunities to substitute away from scarce
resources
•
Eliminating waste throughout the system, from
production though end use
•
Increasing “Circularity” –upgrading, reusing, or recycling
products
•
Optimizing efficiency, convenience, safety, and reliability
•
Moving products, services, and the processes that
develop or deliver them out of the physical world and
into the virtual realm
Resource Revolution
Three Strategic Thrusts
•
Combining information technology, nano-scale
materials science, and detailed understanding of
biology with industrial technology ad infrastructure
yields substantial productivity increase
•
Embedding high productivity economic growth in the
developing world to support the 2.5 million new
members of the middle class presents the largest
wealth creation opportunity in a century
•
Capturing this opportunities requires a new approach to
management
Resource Revolution
From Cost Advantage to Loss Advantage
• Achieving superior efficiency in 21st century terms—”socio-efficiency”-results not in cost advantage, but in loss advantage
• Loss advantage means an advantage in minimizing a business’s own
direct cost, while also minimizing the social human, public and
environment losses the business imposes on other economic actors
• While businesses seeking a cost advantage are often irresponsible ,
shifting, hiding, and pushing costs onto others, business seeking a loss
advantage are radically—indeed, disruptively—responsible: they take
responsibility for the full spectrum of the costs and losses production
occurs
• Loss advantage happens by re-conceptualizing, organizing, and
rebuilding production and consumption as a value cycle, instead of a
value chain
• Today’s innovators are discovering that building cycles instead of chains
is the key to renewing resources for tomorrow, instead of merely
exploiting them today
The New Capitalist Manifesto
The Missing Factor
• GDP is a measure of the wealth that a country generates
each year, but from a thermodynamic point of view, it is
more a measure of the temporary energy value
embedded in the goods or services produced at the
expense of the diminution of the available energy
reserves and an accumulation of entropic waste
• All economic activity creates only temporary value, at the
expense of the degradation of the resource base on
which it depends
• Along with capital and labor inputs, energy is the
“missing factor,” accounting for the rest of the
productivity and economic growth
P202, 204 The Third Industrial Revolution
From linear to cyclical modes of production
and consumption
The Value Chain
Inbound
Logistics
Operations
Outbound
Logistics
The Value Cycle
Outbound
Logistics
Production
& Reproduction
Reverse
Logistics
Marketing
Service
Remarketing
Marketing
Service
From the thermodynamic
perspective, the most
important lesson we an
learn is how to budget our
consumption patterns to
conform with nature’s
recycling schedules, so
that we can live more
sustainably on Earth*
The New Capitalist Manifesto
* The Third Industrial Revolution
From Technical Productivity to SocioProductivity
• Today’s challenge is achieving a better kind of efficiency
altogether: Socio efficiency that minimizes both direct costs
and full-spectrum losses, creating thicker value
• To achieve gains to next-generation efficiency, all three—
Walmart, Nike, and Interface—are innovating the
cornerstone of industrial-age production itself: they are
producing not in lines, but in circles
• They are doing this not out of altruism, but because doing
so unlocks radical new paths for strategy, competition, and
ultimately a new source of advantage: Loss advantage
• Simply, renewing resources for tomorrow is wiser than
exploiting them today
The New Capitalist Manifesto
Food for Culture
Food as total nourishment for the body, the senses,
the mind and the earth
• The entire food chain is reflected
in what we eat, running from the
soil to the plate
Nature
Food •
It is beyond the modernist concept
of nutritionism
•
Sharing food = creating community
Culture
Sustainism is the New Modernism
Food for Culture
• The disconnection between young people and the global food system
is growing.
-
Most young people do not grow up wanting to be farmers.
Consumers all over the world have forgotten basic cooking skills
because of an overreliance on processed foods.
• Agricultural diversity is declining: most diets in riche countries consist
of just six foods, including maize, wheat, rice and potatoes.
• Agriculture is looked down upon as a career and is often viewed as
work for the poor or people who have no other options.
• Farmers also lack access to markets, making it hard for them to earn
an income from their work
Danielle Nierenberg, Is Sustainability Still Possible?
Transition Culture
Reinstating the idea that food is something that grows
near where you live, by someone you have some kind
of a relationship with, and that you actually cook yourself
Global
Consumption
Production
Local
Sustainism is the New Modernism
Food Production and
consumption occurred at
the same place
From food as a part of local experience and
community to food as a global economic
commodity
Global
Present:
different places
Consumption
Production
Past:
the same place
Local
Sustainism is the New Modernism
Marketplace wants “Less for More”*
Quantities
Lower
Higher
Fewer
Diverse
Products
More selective about what to grow and what not
*Chris Anderson, The Long Tail
Sustainism is the New Modernism
In valuing time and place, we value seasonal and
local foods
Option I: Shifting
Global
Consumption Option II: Balancing
Production
Local
Sustainism is the New Modernism
Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up.
It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it
will be killed.
Every morning a lion wakes up.
It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will
starve to death.
It does not matter whether you are a lion or a
gazelle.
When the sun comes up, you better start running.
African Proverb
“If You want to go quickly,
go alone;
if you want to go far,
go together.”
African Proverb
“It is not the strongest of
the species that survive,
nor the most intelligent,
but the one most responsive
to change.”
Charles Darwin