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Industry & Community Adaptation to
Climate Change
Anthony Hogan
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
1. First phase of the project conducted by
Mary Milne, Nyree Stenekes and
Jacquie Russell
2. Second phase by Anthony Hogan, Mary
Milne, Michael Hanslip, Robert
Kancans and Brigit Maguire
www.brs.gov.au
OUTLINE OF TALK
1. Purpose of project
2. Conceptual framework
3. Case studies and methods
4. Findings:
• Perceptions of drought and climate
change
• Motivations and actions
• Role of government
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PROJECT OBJECTIVES
• To inform government drought policy
and strategies on stakeholder
perceptions of climate change
• To provide baseline information on
current climate risk perceptions,
management strategies and other
related issues and risks facing rural
communities
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KEY QUESTIONS
• How do stakeholders perceive drought and
climate change?
• What risk management strategies are
agricultural industries implementing to adapt
to climate risk?
• What role could government play in assisting
rural industries and communities with respect
to drought and climate change adaptation?
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Conceptual
framework
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FRAMEWORK
• Explores links between:
(1) people’s perceptions of climate
variability and climate change,
(2) motivations,
(3) adaptive capacity, and
(4) climate risk management strategies
and intended actions
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Adaptive learning cycle
Knowledge
Perceptions
of climate
risk
Environmental
beliefs and
values
Interpretation
/ Framing
Motivation
Responses
Enablers and
constrainers
Enablers and
constrainers
Adaptation
intention
Appraisal of
adaptation
Adaptive capacity
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Case studies
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CASE STUDIES
• Dryland regions in NSW where prior drought
studies had been implemented
– Temora (DoTARS study, 2004)
– Condobolin (Alston and Kent, 2004)
• Irrigated regions in Victoria with a substantial area
under horticulture
– Cobram (stone fruits)
– Mildura (grapes and citrus)
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CASE STUDIES AND METHODS
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METHODS
• Literature review
• Face to face interviews (72)
~ Agriculturally reliant small businesses
~ Key informants across the community (e.g
school principals, members of the Council,
health workers)
• Focus groups (2 per case study)
• Qualitative analysis
• National quantitative survey (n=8,000)
– In field
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Perceptions of
Drought & Climate
Change
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PERCEPTIONS OF DROUGHT &
CLIMATE CHANGE
PERCEPTIONS AND DROUGHT IMPACTS
• One of the longest and most extensive periods of
low rainfall experienced
• Short recovery time between low rainfall periods
• Drain on capital reserves and impact on next
year’s production
• Dependency on irrigated water – buffer to
drought and climate change impacts
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Climate is just one aspect of change
• Drought and water access
• Commodity price fluctuations
• Input costs
• Adverse seasonal conditions
• Skills and labour shortage
• Declining community services
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Conceptual framework: climate change perceptions
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Adaptive behaviours are driven by perceptions and experiences of
risk and opportunity (psycho-social, $, physical etc)
Adaptive behaviours
Adaptations undertaken
Perceptions
Climate change:
perceptions & attitudes
(exist?, threat, responsibility, challenge),
Drought and climate variability
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Context
Resilience & health
Trust
Current risks
Extreme events & subtle shifts
Use of help
Land size & use
Irrigated
Demographics
PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
1. ‘Yes, it is happening’ - this group were confident that
climate change is happening.
2. ‘Probably, but not sure’ - thought that climate change
might be happening but were not entirely confident
3. ‘Yes, it is happening, but not here’ - believed climate
change is happening but happening somewhere else
and not linked to current drought
4. ‘Don’t know’ - uncertainty and confusion about whether
climate change is happening
5. ‘No, it isn’t happening’ - did not believe that climate
change was happening. “it’s natural cycle rather than
anthropogenic climate change”
www.brs.gov.au
INFORMATION
– Bombardment of conflicting information on
climate change.
– Historical rainfall and temperature records
– Historical observation and word of mouth
Trusted sources:
BOM, Consultants, rural financial counsellors
weather forecasters, rural press
– Some don’t seek information
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Actions
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People’s beliefs are likely to influence their actions or
intentions to act.
Knowledge
Perceptions
of climate
risk
Environmental
beliefs and
values
Interpretation
/ Framing
Motivation
Responses
Enablers and
constrainers
Enablers and
constrainers
Adaptation
intention
Appraisal of
adaptation
Adaptive capacity
www.brs.gov.au
MOTIVATIONS TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE
1. Immediate sense of threat to one’s livelihood
•
Adaptation responses were generally found to be driven
by a sense of threat from the effects of drought.
2. Sense of moral responsibility
–
Interest in mitigation activities generally associated with
a moral obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
and to address climate change at a global level.
3. A challenge
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TACTICAL RISK STRATEGIES
• Winding back
• Retaining labour
• Cost cutting
• Culling
• Selective watering of orchards
• Reluctance by some to plan for drought
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STRATEGIC RISK STRATEGIES –
Planning for the future
Irrigation
• Water use efficiency
• Water trading
• Irrigation technology
• Carry over water
• Industry exit
Dryland
• Diversification on and
off farm
•
•
•
•
Forecasts
Conservation farming
Direct drilling
Expansion of farm size
• Water use efficiency
www.brs.gov.au
TYPOLOGIES
A. Belief – action
•
More open to idea of climate change – increasingly strategic
action
B. Sceptical – action
•
Less open to idea of climate change – increasingly strategic
action
C. Belief – inaction
•
More open to idea of climate change –more tactical actions
D. Sceptical – inaction
•
Less open to idea of climate change – more tactical actions
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Believe in CC
Not sure how to manage CC
1
2
0
1
Is climate change happening?
2
Group D:
Sceptical about CC
Few RM strategies
Increasingly tactical
0
Strategies / intentions
Group C:
3
4
3
More open to the idea
Less open to the idea
5
Cobram
Mildura
Condobolin
4
5
Group A:
Believe in CC
Whole system changes
Increasingly strategic
Temora
6
www.brs.gov.au
Group B:
Sceptical of CC
Still making system changes
Role of
Government
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FINANCIAL INCENTIVES
• Responsive financial assistance perceived to have
enabled farmers to remain on their farms but
significant opposition to ‘hand outs’
• Support for proactive financial incentives that
reward those preparing for climate risks and allow
for shift to longer term management for climate
change (e.g. - grants, rebates and subsidies for onfarm infrastructure that enhances water use
efficiency, production yields and greater water and
fodder storage capacities).
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RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
• More definitive and regional information on climate
change
• Information on innovation, e.g. drought resistant
varieties of crops and livestock
• Farm and water management and risk strategies better
suited to a climate change
• New technologies and infrastructure
• Better regional and short term forecasts
• Government climate change site; how farmers in other
countries are going and what technology exists
overseas
• Carbon emissions trading schemes for the agricultural
sector
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COMMUNICATION AND AWARENESS
• Need to consider a range of messages, given the
varied sources of uncertainty about climate change
and the different levels and stages of preparedness
• Education and extension initiatives to support
those who are either uncertain about climate
change or who are in transition towards on-going
adaptation for climate change
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What next?
• National survey of landholders
• Understanding the role of adaptive capacity
• Explore adaptation at different scales
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Industry & Community Adaptation to
Climate Change
Anthony Hogan