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Lecture at the
Society for International Development
15 March 2010
Yvo de Boer
Executive Secretary
UNFCCC
Key development challenges
• 25 000 People die of hunger or hunger-related causes every
day
• 1.1 Billion people have inadequate access to water; 2.6 Billion
people lack basic sanitation
• 1.6 Billion people — a quarter of humanity — live without
electricity
• These existing stresses may be exacerbated by climate change
• Overriding concerns of developing countries:
poverty eradication and sustainable development
(impossible without reliable access to energy)
Warmth of the last half century is unusual in
at least the previous 1300 years.
Source: IPCC 2007
Observed changes
Global average
temperature
Global average
sea level
Northern hemisphere
snow cover
Source: IPCC 2007
Cumulative investment in energy-supply
infrastructure 2008-2030
Total investment = $25.6 trillion (in year-2008 dollars)
14%
Shipping &
ports
86%
Mining
Transport
Coal
$0.7 trillion
Biofuels
3%
$0.2 trillion
Oil
1%
$5.9 trillion
23%
Power
$13.7 trillion
53%
Refining
4%
17%
Upstream
79%
LNG
9%
Gas
$5.1 trillion
20%
15%
Transmission
33%
Distribution
T&D
33%
52%
Generation
Upstream
58%
Just over half of all energy-investment needs to 2030 are
needed in the power sector, mainly in
developing countries - Source: IEA 2009
Mtoe
World total primary energy demand up
to 2030 (Reference scenario)
18 000
Other renewables
16 000
Biomass
14 000
Hydro
12 000
Nuclear
10 000
8 000
Gas
6 000
Oil
4 000
Coal
2 000
WEO-2008 total
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Global demand grows by 40% between 2007 and
2030, with coal use rising most in absolute terms
Source: IEA 2009
Mtoe
World total primary energy demand
up to 2030 (450 scenario)
4 500
36%
Coal
4 000
32%
Oil
3 500
28%
Gas
3 000
24%
2 500
20%
2 000
16%
1 500
12%
1 000
8%
500
4%
0
0%
1990
2000
2010
2020
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass
Other renewables
Share of zero-carbon fuels
(right axis)
2030
In the 450 Scenario, demand for fossil fuels peaks by
2020. By 2030 zero-carbon fuels make up a third of the
world's primary sources of energy demand
Source: IEA 2009
Convergence of the energy and climate change
agendas
Increased demand, dwindling fossil fuel resources and
economic realities will lead to:
• decreased energy security
• increasing energy prices
• increased emissions from energy
Addressing climate change, e.g. through energy efficiency or
by increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix, will
have a positive effect: • increased energy security
• decreased prices
• greater energy independence
• decreased emissions from energy
Share of global greenhouse gas
emissions by major sectors (2005)
Global GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) in 2005
International Bunkers
2%
Electricity/Heat
31%
Waste
4%
Energy
72%
Agriculture
16%
Industrial Processes
5%
Source: WRI
Manufacturing/Constructio
n
13%
Transport
14%
Other Fuel Combustion
10%
Fugitive Emissions
5%
Climate change impacts
Poor and least developed regions:
• People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:
» 12 to 81 million in Latin America
» 75 to 250 million in Africa
• Possible yield reduction in agriculture:
» 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia
» 30% by 2080 in Latin America
» 50% by 2020 in some African countries
Source: IPCC 2007
Climate change impacts
Europe:
• Inland and coastal flooding
• Health risks due to heat-waves
• Reduction of water availability and crop productivity in
South Europe
• Species losses and reduced snow cover in mountains
Source: IPCC 2007
Stabilisation scenarios
Global mean Stabilization
temp.
level
increase
(ppm CO2(ºC)
eq)
2.0 – 2.4
2.4 – 2.8
2.8 – 3.2
3.2 – 4.0
Source: IPCC 2007
445 – 490
490 – 535
535 – 590
590 – 710
Year CO2
needs to
peak
2000 – 2015
2000 – 2020
2010 – 2030
2020 – 2060
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
• 194 Parties – near universal membership
• The ultimate objective of the Convention:
“… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” (Art. 2)
The overarching themes in the intergovernmental
climate change negotiations
Mitigation
• Involves human interventions to reduce the sources of
GHGs or enhance their sinks.
Adaptation: coping with climatic change – taking measures
to reduce the negative effects, or exploit the positive ones,
by making appropriate adjustments.
• Adaptation is inevitable
• Developing countries will be most affected.
2007: Climate change science goes mainstream
• IPCC’s fourth assessment report: recognition that current
efforts are not commensurate with the scale of the problem
• Mitigation: One IPCC scenario: industrialised countries to
reduce by 25 – 40% below 1990 by 2020.
• Adaptation: options exist
• Recognition of the urgency to act;
• Huge political momentum and increased public awareness on
climate change
The UN Climate Change Conference in Bali 2007
Launch of negotiations to respond to momentum of 2007: the
Bali Road Map, which includes
• Convention negotiations: strengthen the international
response up to and beyond 2012
• Negotiations on key building blocks: adaptation,
mitigation, including REDD, technology, capacity building
and finance
• On-going work, e.g. technology, adaptation
• Kyoto Protocol negotiations
• 2 Years of negotiations towards an “agreed outcome” in 2009
• no consensus on the legal nature
of an “agreed outcome”
Different interests and concerns in the negotiations
• Developed countries: fear the price tag of action, loss of
competitiveness and carbon leakage
• Developing countries: fear targets imposed through the
backdoor
• Small Island developing countries: fear that too little
ambition will lead to their demise
• Oil producing countries: fear the adverse effects of
response measures
• ALBA countries: fear that a solution
based on capitalist principles will not
translate into a solution
m
The view of developing countries
Developing countries are hesitant to engage because:
• Targets have not been met by industrialised countries
• Finance has not been provided
• They fear that climate change action will constrain their
economic growth
• There is a lingering suspicion towards the industrialised
world
The UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen
2009
While disappointing to many, the conference was important
because:
• It raised climate change policy to where it belongs: the
highest political level;
• It advanced critical technical issues in the Bali Road Map
negotiations
• It produced the Copenhagen Accord (not legally binding):
• A letter of political intent; 100+ countries have associated
• 2°C
• short-term and long-term finance
• a review by 2015
• targets; actions
Priorities during 2010
• Rebuild confidence in the process
• Progress is needed on finance:
• the 30 billion USD need to flow
• clarity needed on how to generate the 100 billion USD
• Clarity on what “legally binding” could entail
• Governments need to assess which points of convergence in
the Accord could be used to conclude the Bali Road Map
negotiations
The UN Climate Change Conference in Mexico 2010
•
Objectives for Mexico need to take current political realities
into account
•
The needs of developing countries need to be addressed
1. Fully operational architecture that makes it possible for
developing countries to act on climate change
• Needs to include many avenues for cooperation to
make it work
2. Clear leadership by industrialised countries
3. Conclusion of the negotiations under the Bali Road Map
• Progress could lead to consensus
to turn the outcome into a legal
treaty in the future.
Avenues for cooperation through the climate
change regime with adequate finance
Mitigation, e.g.:
• NAMAs;
•Technology mechanism to boost technology transfer;
• Capacity-building;
• REDD;
Adaptation, e.g.:
• Adaptation framework to support work at regional and
national levels;
• Mechanisms to manage loss and
damage, including insurance;
Avenues for cooperation: private sector involvement
• The private sector will be key in implementation
Directly through the climate change regime:
• Existing market mechanisms; new mechanisms
• Possibility of generating new funding
Outside the regime, but with benefits for the climate:
• Business is often driven by sustainability issues not directly
perceived as climate related, but which:
• cut operating costs, e.g. through energy efficiency standards
• share knowledge on sustainability in a globalised world
• are increasingly greening growth
• boost cooperation on green innovation
Avenues for cooperation: the development
community
The development community needs to assist developing
countries, especially LDCs, African countries and Small Island
Developing States:
• identify the most pressing adaptation needs
• identify critical technology gaps for adaptation
• assist in implementing adaptation in the context of overall
development strategies
• identify options to leap-frog emissions-intensive growth and
assist in mitigation planning
• identify investment needs and
technology gaps for mitigation
• assist in implementing mitigation
actions
Thank you