Download Dr. Climatic-Climate Change 101

Climate Change 101
Everything I know about Climate
Change I learned at the movies…
1995
2004
2006
Presentation Outline
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Greenhouse Effect
Energy sources
Emissions
Correlation
Future Trends
Notes
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Although the Earth’s atmosphere consists mainly of oxygen and nitrogen, neither plays a
significant role in enhancing the greenhouse effect because both essentially transparent to
terrestrial radiation. The greenhouse effect is primarily a function of the concentration of
water vapor, carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that absorb the
terrestrial radiation leaving the surface of the Earth. Changes in the atmospheric
concentrations of these greenhouse gases can alter the balance of energy transfers
between the atmosphere, space, land and oceans. A gauge of these changes is called
radiative forcing. Holding everything else constant, increases in greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere will produce positive radiative forcing (i.e., a net increase
in the absorption of energy by the Earth).
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Water Vapor (H2O) is the most abundant and dominant greenhouse gas in the
atmosphere. Water vapor is neither long-lived nor well mixed in the atmosphere, varying
spatially from 0 to 2 percent. In addition, atmospheric water can exist in several physical
states including gaseous, liquid, and solid. Human activities are not believed to affect
directly the average global concentration of water vapor, but, the radiative forcing
produced by the increased concentrations of other greenhouse gases may indirectly affect
the hydrologic cycle.
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As we will soon see, CO2 is by far the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas, so
other gases are set to units equivalent to CO2. What is important to note, however, is that
some gases have quite large affects and stay in the atmosphere for long periods of time.
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Sulfur hexafluoride is an insulator used in electrical equipment and switches, carbon
tetrafluoride is one of a family of perfluorocarbons mostly emitted from the smelting of
aluminum)
Source: EPA Global Warming site.
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/climate.html
Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases
CO2
CH4
N2O
CF4
SF6
Atmospheric Lifetime
(years)
50-200
12
114
>50,000
3,200
Pre-industrial
Concentration (ppm)
280
0.722
0.270
40
0
Atmospheric
Concentration (ppm)
381
1.774
0.319
80
5.4
1,610
0.005
0.0007
1.0
(ppt/yr)
0.23
(ppt/yr)
Rate of Concentration
Change (ppm/yr)
Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports 2008
http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html
Presentation Outline
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Greenhouse Effect
Energy sources
Emissions
Correlation
Future Trends
Fossil Fuels
World’s Dominant Energy Source
United States (2005)
World (2005)
100 QBtu/yr (1.06e14 MJ)
86% Fossil Energy
462 Quads/yr (4.87e14 MJ)
86% Fossil Energy
Gas
23%
Coal
23%
Nuclear
8%
Renewables
(solar, wind,
geothermal,
biomass) 3%
Gas
23%
Coal
26%
Nuclear 6%
Oil
41%
Hydro 3%
Oil
37%
World Data from International Energy Outlook 2007 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html.
U.S. Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/fuel.html
Renewables
8%
Energy - USA Energy Requirements
2005
Oil 40%
100 Quads
Renewables 6%
Coal
26%
Fossil fuels provide
86% of energy
Gas
20%
Nuclear 7%
2030
Oil 41%
Coal
23%
Gas
23%
131 Quads
Renewables 6%
Nuclear 8%
Source: AEO 2007
By 2030, reliance on
fossil fuels remains
stable at 86%
Renewable Energy Consumption –
Growing Fast BUT from a Small Base
Hydro, 3.0
Biomass, 3.2
Wind, 1.2
Solar, 0.0
2005
Geothermal,
0.8
6.3 Quads
Wind, 0.1
Muni Waste,
0.4
Hydro, 2.7
Biofuels, 5.1
Solar, 0.0
Geothermal,
0.3
2030
Muni Waste,
0.4
13.7 Quads
Biofuels, 0.6
Biomass, 2.2
Source: AEO 2008
Presentation Outline
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Greenhouse Effect
Energy sources
Emissions
Correlation
Future Trends
All Fossil Fuels and Energy Sectors
Contribute CO2 Emissions
United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions
by Source and Sector
Transportation
32%
Industry
29%
Residential
21%
Commercial
18%
Natural Gas
20%
Coal
36%
Oil
44%
AEO2007
CO2 and CH4 - The Primary GHG Contributors
United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Equivalent Global Warming Basis
Other CO2
2%
Methane
9%
CO2 from
Energy
83%
Nitrous Oxide
5%
HFCs, PFCs, SF6
2%
“EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S. 2005”
Carbon Intensity is falling…
Carbon Intensity
By Region, 2001-2025
(Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997)
World Carbon Dioxide Emissions
By Region, 2001-2025
(Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent)
…But Carbon Dioxide
Emissions are growing
The Budget is Disappearing
Cumulative Carbon Emissions 1900-2100 (GtC)
Spent
Remaining
2040
809
5
Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization
Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004
Presentation Outline
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Greenhouse Effect
Energy sources
Emissions
Correlation
Future Trends
Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising…
CO2 Concentrations on the Rise
350
300
Temperature Change
from Present (oC)
CO2 (Vostok)
250
200
2
0
DTatm (Vostok)
-2
-4
200
150
100
50
Time Before Present (kyr)
0
CO2 Concentration
(ppmv)
(~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years)
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics.htm
Presentation Outline
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Greenhouse Effect
Energy sources
Emissions
Correlation
Future Trends
Possible Harbingers…
• Rising sea levels
• Spreading disease
• Shifting in seasons (e.g., earlier
spring arrival)
• Shifting ranges of plant and
animal
• Changes in animal and plant
populations
• Bleaching of coral reef
• Melting permafrost melting
• Increased catastrophic weather
(e.g., heavy snowfalls, flooding,
ice storms, droughts, fires)
Permafrost and polar ice are melting…
Source: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov and National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
Precipitation is erratic
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
Significant Climate Anomalies
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
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