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Download Dr. Climatic-Climate Change 101
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Climate Change 101 Everything I know about Climate Change I learned at the movies… 1995 2004 2006 Presentation Outline • • • • • Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends Notes • Although the Earth’s atmosphere consists mainly of oxygen and nitrogen, neither plays a significant role in enhancing the greenhouse effect because both essentially transparent to terrestrial radiation. The greenhouse effect is primarily a function of the concentration of water vapor, carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that absorb the terrestrial radiation leaving the surface of the Earth. Changes in the atmospheric concentrations of these greenhouse gases can alter the balance of energy transfers between the atmosphere, space, land and oceans. A gauge of these changes is called radiative forcing. Holding everything else constant, increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will produce positive radiative forcing (i.e., a net increase in the absorption of energy by the Earth). • Water Vapor (H2O) is the most abundant and dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Water vapor is neither long-lived nor well mixed in the atmosphere, varying spatially from 0 to 2 percent. In addition, atmospheric water can exist in several physical states including gaseous, liquid, and solid. Human activities are not believed to affect directly the average global concentration of water vapor, but, the radiative forcing produced by the increased concentrations of other greenhouse gases may indirectly affect the hydrologic cycle. • As we will soon see, CO2 is by far the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas, so other gases are set to units equivalent to CO2. What is important to note, however, is that some gases have quite large affects and stay in the atmosphere for long periods of time. • Sulfur hexafluoride is an insulator used in electrical equipment and switches, carbon tetrafluoride is one of a family of perfluorocarbons mostly emitted from the smelting of aluminum) Source: EPA Global Warming site. http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/climate.html Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases CO2 CH4 N2O CF4 SF6 Atmospheric Lifetime (years) 50-200 12 114 >50,000 3,200 Pre-industrial Concentration (ppm) 280 0.722 0.270 40 0 Atmospheric Concentration (ppm) 381 1.774 0.319 80 5.4 1,610 0.005 0.0007 1.0 (ppt/yr) 0.23 (ppt/yr) Rate of Concentration Change (ppm/yr) Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports 2008 http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html Presentation Outline • • • • • Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends Fossil Fuels World’s Dominant Energy Source United States (2005) World (2005) 100 QBtu/yr (1.06e14 MJ) 86% Fossil Energy 462 Quads/yr (4.87e14 MJ) 86% Fossil Energy Gas 23% Coal 23% Nuclear 8% Renewables (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass) 3% Gas 23% Coal 26% Nuclear 6% Oil 41% Hydro 3% Oil 37% World Data from International Energy Outlook 2007 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html. U.S. Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/fuel.html Renewables 8% Energy - USA Energy Requirements 2005 Oil 40% 100 Quads Renewables 6% Coal 26% Fossil fuels provide 86% of energy Gas 20% Nuclear 7% 2030 Oil 41% Coal 23% Gas 23% 131 Quads Renewables 6% Nuclear 8% Source: AEO 2007 By 2030, reliance on fossil fuels remains stable at 86% Renewable Energy Consumption – Growing Fast BUT from a Small Base Hydro, 3.0 Biomass, 3.2 Wind, 1.2 Solar, 0.0 2005 Geothermal, 0.8 6.3 Quads Wind, 0.1 Muni Waste, 0.4 Hydro, 2.7 Biofuels, 5.1 Solar, 0.0 Geothermal, 0.3 2030 Muni Waste, 0.4 13.7 Quads Biofuels, 0.6 Biomass, 2.2 Source: AEO 2008 Presentation Outline • • • • • Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends All Fossil Fuels and Energy Sectors Contribute CO2 Emissions United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Source and Sector Transportation 32% Industry 29% Residential 21% Commercial 18% Natural Gas 20% Coal 36% Oil 44% AEO2007 CO2 and CH4 - The Primary GHG Contributors United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions Equivalent Global Warming Basis Other CO2 2% Methane 9% CO2 from Energy 83% Nitrous Oxide 5% HFCs, PFCs, SF6 2% “EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S. 2005” Carbon Intensity is falling… Carbon Intensity By Region, 2001-2025 (Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997) World Carbon Dioxide Emissions By Region, 2001-2025 (Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent) …But Carbon Dioxide Emissions are growing The Budget is Disappearing Cumulative Carbon Emissions 1900-2100 (GtC) Spent Remaining 2040 809 5 Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004 Presentation Outline • • • • • Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising… CO2 Concentrations on the Rise 350 300 Temperature Change from Present (oC) CO2 (Vostok) 250 200 2 0 DTatm (Vostok) -2 -4 200 150 100 50 Time Before Present (kyr) 0 CO2 Concentration (ppmv) (~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years) Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics.htm Presentation Outline • • • • • Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends Possible Harbingers… • Rising sea levels • Spreading disease • Shifting in seasons (e.g., earlier spring arrival) • Shifting ranges of plant and animal • Changes in animal and plant populations • Bleaching of coral reef • Melting permafrost melting • Increased catastrophic weather (e.g., heavy snowfalls, flooding, ice storms, droughts, fires) Permafrost and polar ice are melting… Source: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov and National Climatic Data Center, NOAA Precipitation is erratic Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA Significant Climate Anomalies Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA What do you think? 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