Download Drivers of Climate Change

Developing an Ocean and
Climate Literate Society
Natural Resources Leadership Institute
10 December 2009
Miami, FL
Mike Spranger, PhD
Associate Director for Florida Sea Grant Extension
Associate Dean, Environmental & Natural Resources
University of Florida IFAS Extension
IPPC, 4th Assessment
• Climate is warming and
will continue in future
• Humans are accelerating
this warming trend
• There are major impacts
on every segment of society
The
Greenhouse Effect
Some solar radiation
is reflected by the
Earth and the
atmosphere
Solar
radiation
passes
through
the clear
atmosphere
Some of the infrared radiation
passes through the atmosphere,
and some is absorbed and
re-emitted in all
directions by
greenhouse gas
molecules. The
effect of this
is to warm
the Earth’s
surface and
the lower
atmosphere.
Infrared radiation is emitted
from the Earth’s Surface
Most radiation is absorbed by the
Earth’s surface and warms it
Temperature Change and CO2 Concentrations
750
700
600
500
Temperature Change (oC)
400
Current
Level
Level
4
2
0
-2
-4
-8
300
250
200
Current
Current
Level
150
100
50
0
Thousands of years ago
CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere (Antarctic Ice Core))
Temperature changes compared
to the present temperature
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Health Impacts
Weather-related Mortality
Infectious Diseases
Air Quality-Respiratory Illnesses
Agriculture Impacts
Climate Changes
Temperature
Precipitation
Sea Level Rise
Crop yields
Irrigation demands
Forest Impacts
Change in forest composition
Shift geographic rangeof forests
Forest Health and Productivity
Water Resource Impacts
Changes in water supply
Water quality
Increased competion for water
Impacts on Coastal Areas
Erosion of beaches
Inundate coastal lands
Costs to defend coastal communities
Species and Natural Areas
Shift in ecological zones
Loss of habitat and species
Global Warming
Six America’s - Audience
Alarmed
18%
Concerned
33%
Cautious
19%
Disengaged
12%
Doubtful
11%
Dismissive
7%
Why People Do or
Don’t Worry About Climate Change
Broad, 2009
Lay Projection of Impacts
Broad, 2009
New Emphasis on Climate Change
Growing interest and discussions
0n climate change issues:
• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change) 4
• Al Gore (Book and Movie)
• Governors Office in Florida
• Changing markets - biofuels and
ethanol production
• Carbon credits and markets
• Sustainability
“Governor Crist is passionate about government leading by example…
Three Executive Orders represent the Governor’s commitment to
addressing global climate change.”
David Zierden, State Climatologist for Florida, Director, Florida Climate Center, FSU 2009
Human Impacts vs. Natural Variability
Influencing Florida
AMO
ENSO
PDO
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Considered in modeling used to forecast
seasonal weather, especially rainfall, for South
Florida water management
(See Appendix 2.3 in 2007 South Florida Environmental Report)
Sun spots, volcanic activity and other factors
create more variation in local weather on
shorter time scales
Garth 2009
Trends of Concern for Florida
Climate Changes
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Fewer cold days & nights
More frequent hot days & nights
Warm spells/heat waves
Heavy precipitation events
Increased droughts
Increased tropical cyclones
Increased extreme high sea level
Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Projections
Challenge for Decision-Makers: Dealing with Uncertainty
*Projections from CERP-CGM, NRC, Miami-Dade Task Force, FSU, and IPCC
Garth 2009
Enveloping
Curves
More Recent Findings*
Lesser known green gases appear important
Methane, nitrogen trifluoride (electronics)
Ice melting is rapid and may have a positive
feedback on ocean temperatures
Evidence for widespread temperature
increases is mounting
* Since last IPCC 4 Report
More Recent Findings*
• Sea level rise may be faster
• Precipitation projected to decrease &
evaporation increase in subtropics
• Frequency of Atlantic storm activity
*Since IPCC 4 report
World Ocean Conference
Focus on climate and ocean issues
Climate Change How will Florida be affected?
Florida is vulnerable
• 1,200 miles of coastline
• Much of the state only 20 ft or less
above sea level
• 18 million residents live within 60
miles of Atlantic or Gulf coasts
• $25 billion in ocean economy,with
$562 billion in coastal economy
Potential Impacts to
Florida’s Infrastructure
• Water, power, telecommunications, transportation,
and buildings constructed to last at least 75 years.
• Infrastructure longevity was based on past
environmental design criteria and specifications.
• Many of these criteria have been exceeded already
by aspects of climate change.
Potential Impacts to
Human Health
• In other regions of the world, changes in climate have
had negative effects on human health.
• Results – illness, injury or death due to severe heat waves,
intensified hurricanes and floods
• With increased rainfall, greater storm water discharges
carry more contaminants into coastal waters.
• Results – unsafe beaches and shellfish beds
• Potential increase in mosquito and waterborne illness
Potential Economic Impacts
• Climate change will affect Florida’s economy.
• Some costs will be offset by taking adaptive actions.
• Negative impacts will outweigh benefits for most
sectors that provide goods and services.
• Hugh strains will occur on public sector budgets.
• Secondary impacts may include higher prices,
reduced incomes, job losses, qualify of life impacts.
Economic Impacts (Cont’d)
In a study of Florida impacts by Tufts University:
• Cost of inaction ranged from $27 billion by 2025 to
$354 billion in 2100
• Included economic activity in tourism, hurricanes,
electric power, and real estate.
• Did not consider losses in agriculture, fisheries,
insurance, transportation, water systems, and
ecosystem damages, so estimates likely are low.
Florida Has Rapid
Climate Zone
Transitions (<300 km)
What happens when species shift northward?
After Chrisman 2009
Drivers of Climate Change
• Increasing greenhouse gases
• Increasing air and water temperature
• Increasing sea level
Effects of Climate Change
• Ocean acidification
• Altered rainfall and
runoff
• Increased intensity of
hurricanes
• Increased coral
bleaching
• More frequent
harmful algal blooms
• More widespread
Hypoxia
• Tidal wetland losses
• Beach loss and
coastal erosion
• Impacts to coastal
water supply
Increasing Green House Gases
• Earth’s temperature is rising because gases such as
CO2 that retain atmospheric heat are increasing.
• Largely a consequence of human activities that use
energy( burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal).
• Green house gases are absorbed by the ocean water
Driver:
Increasing Green House Gases
Effect:
Ocean Acidification
Ocean Acidification
• As levels of CO2 in ocean waters increase, the oceans
become more acidic.
• Normal pH of the ocean is about 8.3, (alkaline).
• A drop of 0.1 pH unit = 30% increase in acidity.
• Small changes can have a large impact on organisms
living in the sea such as corals.
Ocean Acidification
What we Know:
• Average world’s oceans pH has fallen by 0.1 pH unit since 1750.
• Marine organisms with calcium carbonate shells or skeletons,
such as corals and clams, are adversely affected by decreased pH.
• Ocean chemistry is changing at least 100 times faster today than
at any time during the 650,000 years prior to the industrial era.
Ocean Acidification
What is Probable:
• The ocean’s pH is continuing to decrease.
• Some marine organisms will not be able to tolerate decreases in
pH of the ocean.
• Animals with calcium carbonate shells or skeletons (clams,
oysters, corals), will grow less rapidly and/or dissolve as pH
decreases.
Ocean Acidification
What is Possible:
• Average ocean pH will decrease by 0.1 to 0.4 pH units over the
next 90 years.
• This acidification will cause major changes in marine ecosystems,
such as a replacement of coral reefs with algae.
• Those changes will have major impacts on fisheries and other
economically important ocean services.
Increasing Temperature
• The oceans and atmosphere are tightly coupled.
• As temperature of one rises or falls, so does the other.
• As air temperature rises, so does its capacity to hold
water vapor and form clouds.
• Clouds can have a cooling or heating effect, and this is a
cause of uncertainty in climate change projections.
Driver:
Increasing Temperature
Effects:
• Altered Rainfall and Runoff
• Change in Frequency and Intensity of Hurricanes
• Increased Harmful Algal Blooms
• Increased Coral Bleaching
Altered Rainfall and Runoff
• Rainfall and runoff of water from land to sea are highly
variable in the Florida peninsula.
• Climate change, land use change and other factors may
result in greater variation in current seasonal and yearto-year patterns.
• Identifying how climate will affect rainfall and runoff in
Florida is a critical research need.
Altered Rainfall and Runoff
What we Know:
• Annual rainfall in Florida is highly variable and is affected by
tropical storms and multi-year climate cycles.
• Human alterations to freshwater inflow to estuaries, such as
increased flow caused by urbanization or decreased flow due to
water use, have changed salinity and patterns of animal and plant
occurrence in Florida estuaries.
Altered Rainfall and Runoff
What is Probable:
• Since 1979 there have been more frequent heavy rainfall events
in the tropics.
• If the frequency of extreme rainfall events increases in Florida it
will exacerbate already altered conditions in estuaries.
Altered Rainfall and Runoff
What is Possible:
• Increased runoff of freshwater to estuaries, and associated
increased delivery of sediments and nutrients, could further
stress the plants and animals in those coastal ecosystems.
• One possible response is increased eutrophication (nutrient
enrichment) with associated increased blooms of algae.
Altered Frequency and Intensity
of Hurricanes
• Development of hurricanes depends on sea-surface
temperature, water vapor, and many other factors.
• Recent examples of rapid hurricane intensification were
associated with storms passing over warm ocean pools
and lack of wind shearing.
• There is considerable uncertainty about how climate
change will affect intensity and frequency of hurricanes.
Hurricanes and Climate Change
What we Know:
• There is no clear long-term trend in number of tropical storms.
• There are natural cycles – we now are in an active phase.
• Intense hurricanes and active seasons have occurred in the past
regardless of trends in sea-surface temperature.
Hurricanes and Climate Change
What is Probable:
• The frequency of hurricanes may decrease with increasing seasurface temperature.
• This reflects the view that wind shear may increase in a warming
planet.
Hurricanes and Climate Change
What is Possible:
• The intensity of hurricanes could increase (due to warmer seasurface temperatures), decrease (due to increased shear stress),
or not change as a result of future climate change.
• As noted, this is a highly uncertain effect.
Harmful Algal Blooms
• Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are caused by microscopic
algae in freshwater, estuaries and the coastal ocean.
• Red tides, caused by a type of algae called a
dinoflagellate, are the most commonly known HAB.
• The algae producing HABs sometimes produce toxins
that are harmful to fish, people and other organisms.
• Some HABs occur on the bottom and can smother coral.
HABs and Climate Change
What we Know:
• Environmental factors including light, temperature and nutrients
set the upper limit on buildup of biomass of algae.
• The algae that cause HABs are favored over other algae when
water temperature is high.
• HABs have been reported throughout Florida’s coastal marine
and estuarine waters.
HABs and Climate Change
What is Probable:
• If climate change results in increased runoff of nutrients from the
land to the coastal waters, this could stimulate more HABs.
• If sea-surface temperature increases, HABs probably will become
more frequent and intense in Florida coastal waters.
HABs and Climate Change
What is Possible:
• The increased frequency, intensity and toxicity of HABs could
result in disruption of marine food webs, more frequent fish kills
and adverse impacts to human health, quality of life, and the
coastal economy.
Coral Reefs
• Reefs are made up of millions of individual corals
interconnected by a calcium skeleton
• Corals already live near to their upper temperature range.
• Corals contain algae that provide them with energy.
• Corals bleach, or whiten, when they lose their algae.
• In the 1980s, during a massive coral bleaching event,
increased coral disease also was documented.
Coral Reefs and Climate Change
What we Know:
• Florida coral reefs are now 1 to 1.5 degrees closer to their
maximum temperature tolerance than 100 years ago.
• Corals stressed by temperature and bleaching are more
vulnerable to disease.
• Coral disease has increased substantially in the FL Keys due to an
increase in sea-surface temperature.
Coral Reefs and Climate Change
What is Probable:
• The thermal tolerance of corals will be surpassed.
• Coral bleaching events will become more frequent and severe.
• Certain coral species will be lost.
• At impacted coral reef sites there will be increases in algae
blooms, coral disease, and diseases of other coral-dwelling
organisms.
Coral Reefs and Climate Change
What is Possible:
• There will be major changes in the structure and function of coral
reef communities, with substantial loss of biodiversity and a shift
from corals to bottom-dwelling algae.
• These changes will impact fisheries, ecotourism, and the
economic and protective attributes of coral reefs for Florida
coastal communities.
Rising Sea Level
• The rate of sea level rise is equally important as how
much it rises.
• Around Florida sea level has been rising at a slow and
constant rate of about 1 inch or less per decade.
• A persistent upturn in the rate of sea level rise may
have recently begun.
Driver:
Rising Sea Level
Effects:
• Loss of tidal wetlands
• Beach and coastal erosion
• Impacts to public water supply
Loss of Tidal Wetlands
• Because Florida is so low and flat, mangrove and other
tidal wetlands cover large areas of the coast.
• These wetlands provide critical habitat for fish, birds,
clams, oysters and other organisms.
• These same wetlands are sensitive to sea level rise and
could perish if sea level rise exceeds their capacity to
adapt by migrating upward in the landscape.
Tidal Wetlands and Climate Change
What we Know:
• Many tidal wetlands are keeping pace with sea level rise by
migrating upslope. The rate of future change in sea level will be
critical to determining their response.
• Even at a constant rate of sea level rise, some tidal wetlands will
eventually ‘pinch out’ where their upslope migration is
prevented by upland defenses such as seawalls and other
natural and man-made structures.
Tidal Wetlands and Climate Change
What is Probable:
• More lowland coastal forests will be lost during the next one to
three centuries as wetlands expand across low-lying areas.
• Major changes in wetland communities, including invasions of
exotic species, will occur.
• Mangrove habitat will migrate northward with increasing water
temperature, displacing salt marshes.
• Tidal wetlands in areas of low freshwater and sediment in put will
be lost where they cannot migrate upland.
Tidal Wetlands and Climate Change
What is Possible:
• 50% +of Florida’s salt marshes will be lost during the 21st century.
• Recreational and commercial fish that depend on shallow water
or intertidal habitats will be at risk.
• The loss of tidal wetlands will result in dangerous loss of buffering
of the coast against storm impacts.
Increased Coastal Erosion
• Beaches, inlets and barrier islands are products of
sediment deposition, erosion and transport.
• These processes are strongly affected by changes in sea
level and storm events.
• It is a challenge to separate out the effects of sea level
rise from effects of storms and human activities such as
dredging and beach re-nourishment.
Coastal Erosion and Climate Change
What we Know:
• Shoreline retreat due to ongoing erosion and over-wash is
occurring now along the Florida coast.
• There has been an increase in recent decades in the frequency
of barrier island dissection events, in which islands are eroded
by wind and waves.
Coastal Erosion and Climate Change
What is Probable:
• Continued sea level rise is expected to exacerbate erosion.
• Barrier islands will continue to erode, migrate landward, and be
reduced in elevation.
• Coastal transportation infrastructure will be impacted.
Coastal Erosion and Climate Change
What is Possible:
• There will be increasing over wash, breaching of coastal roads,
and dissection of inhabited barrier islands – particularly when
storms occur at higher sea level.
• Low barrier islands will vanish, exposing marshes and estuaries
now lying behind them to direct ocean waves.
Impacts to Water Supply
• Coastal well fields that supply water to millions of
residents are at risk from salt water intrusion.
• Sea levels in Florida are expected to rise to the degree
that salt water intrusion will pose a greater threat to
these coastal well fields.
• The problem will be exacerbated if there is an increase
in Florida’s coastal population size and water use.
Water Supply and Climate Change
What we Know:
• Shallow coastal aquifers already experience saltwater intrusion.
• The South Florida Water Management District already spends
millions of dollars a year to prevent Miami’s Biscayne aquifer
from becoming brackish.
Water Supply and Climate Change
What is Probable:
• A sea level rise of about 6 inches would require greater cutbacks
in water use by developed coastal regions in order to prevent
saltwater intrusion.
• The Pensacola and Miami-Palm Beach corridors are especially
vulnerable to saltwater intrusion into community water supplies
with rising sea levels.
Water Supply and Climate Change
What is Possible:
• Eventually if sea levels continue to rise, surficial aquifers around
the entire Florida coast will be threatened by salt water intrusion.
Responding to Climate Change
Some effects will be accepted. This means that no reasonable options will be
found to avoid having to accept an undesirable and detrimental effect.
example: Florida may have to accept the loss of its coral reefs.
Other effects will be mitigated. This means that in-kind strategies and
actions will compensate for some or all of an adverse effect.
example: Florida may set aside low uplands so tidal wetlands can migrate
as sea level rises.
some effects will require adaptations, meaning that our ways of life,
infrastructure, or economy will change to continue Florida’s quality of life.
example: buildings may need to be designed to new standards or located
farther from vulnerable shorelines and roads may need to be relocated.
http://www.floridaoceanscouncil.org
Ocean and Climate Literacy
Initiative
Ocean Literacy Initiative
Understand the Ocean’s
Influence on you
Understand your influence
on the ocean
Ocean Literacy Initiative (2004)
Developed through community-wide
consensus building process (workshop, online)
Partners
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Geographic Society
National Marine Educators Association
Centers for Ocean Science Education Excellence
College of Exploration
An Ocean Literacy Person
Understands the essential principles and
fundamental concepts of the ocean
Communicate about the ocean in a
meaningful way
Make informed decisions regarding the
ocean resources
Ocean Literacy Principles
1. The Earth has one big ocean with many features
2. The ocean and ocean life shape the features of the earth
3. The ocean is a major influence on weather and climate
4. The ocean makes Earth habitable
5. The ocean supports a diversity of life and ecosystems
6. The ocean and humans are inextricably interconnected
7. The ocean is largely unexplored
Climate Change – A New Era?
…We have a series of great
opportunities disguised as
insolvable problems…
Climate Change is a major global problem
being faced today
Thomas Friedman
Hot, Flat, and Crowded
Climate Literacy Initiative (2007)
•
Developed through community workshops
•
Established principles and concepts
Partners
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
American Association for Advancement of Science
National Aeronautical and Space Administration
US Climate Change Communications Interagency
Workgroup
An Climate Literacy Person
Understands the essential principles and
fundamental concepts of the Earth System
Gathers information on climate and weather, and
can distinguish credible from non-credible
scientific information
Communicates about climate and climate change
in a meaningful way
Makes informed decisions and actions that can
have impact on climate.
Climate Literacy Principles
1. Life on Earth is shaped by, depends on, and affects climate
2. Understanding the climate system is by observation and modeling
3. The sun is the primary source of energy for the climate system
4. Earth’s weather & climate are the result of complex interactions
5. Earth’s weather and climate vary over time and space
6. Evidence shows human activity are impacting the climate system
7. Earth’s climate system is influenced by complex human decisions
involving economic costs and social values
Ocean and Climate Literacy - Future
Need a new future with new sustainable strategies
Government Alone will not solve our problems
Need active engagement from all sectors of society
Need to build capacity in all sectors through
research, education and outreach programs
Ocean and Climate Literacy
The University of Florida response
• Interdisciplinary Approaches
• Systems Thinking
• Partnerships
• Multicultural Perspectives
• Raise Awareness and Empowerment
• Building Capacity
University of Florida Responses
UF Carbon Resource Science Center
UF Climate Institute
UF Interdiscplinary Goal Teams
In-Service Training Efforts
Local Government Planning Efforts
State and Local Programs
•
Center for Ocean Science Education Excellence
(Teacher – Scientist Programs)
• Adult Workshops and forums
• Teacher Training Programs
• Youth Programs
Ocean and Climate Literacy
The Opportunity
We have a great
opportunity to provide
the science-based
solutions to our messy
and wicked global problems
The Importance
We do not inherit the
earth from our ancestors,
we borrow it from our
children
~Native American Proverb