Download Scenario Planning - Clivia.NET - Universidad Nacional de Asunción

Maestria en Cambio Global,
Centro Virtual de Cambio Climático y CliVIA- Network,
FP-UNA
Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation
CliVIA-Network (http://clivianet.pol.una.py/)
Gustavo J Nagy
Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República
Montevideo, Uruguay
Facultad Politécnica, Universidad Nacional de Asunción, Paraguay
CliVIA Network
Centro Virtual de Cambio Climático CVCC FP-UNA
CliVIA-Network
Case Studies
1 Master of Science in Global Change (MGC) (FP-UNA).
2 “Cátedra Libre” of Climate Change. Universidad Central (UCV),
Universidad Simón Bolívar (USB) Caracas, Venezuela.
3 Climate EcoHealth and Vulnerability Index. Climate Change and
Environmental Health Unit (UCCLIMAS), Universidad Mayor de San
Andrés (UMSA), La Paz, Bolivia.
4 VIA Assessment in Coastal Areas of South America (SAVIA-Coast).
Universidad Simón Bolívar (USB), Venezuela, and Facultad de Ciencias,
Universidad de la República (FC-UdelaR), Uruguay).
5 Scenario Planning (“Thinking of Futures” ). Facultad de Ciencias,
Universidad de la República (FC-UdelaR), Uruguay, Universidad Simón
Bolívar (USB), Venezuela, and CliVIA-Net.
CliVIA Network
MSc in Global Change (MCG), FP-UNA, Paraguay
"Emphasis
must be put on building capacity to develop a community of
experts in Climate Science Management and the co-production of
knowledge aimed at increasing public awareness and trust, through a
participatory and informed process" (Coronel et al., 2015).
The MSc in Global Change (MCG) is a university-based effort from
across the spectrum of the natural and social sciences, engineering,
and health at the Facultad Politécnica of the Universidad Nacional de
Asunción (FP-UNA), Paraguay. This programme was developed in 2014
aimed at being an agent for sustainability and climate change teaching
and research, a worldwide trend proposed by Barth (2015) and
UNESCO (2016).
CliVIA Network tomado de Harbottle 2013
As society faces unprecedented and increasingly urgent
challenges associated with
accelerating global environmental change and its impacts,
and increasing inequality,
new opportunities for higher education (HE) are emerging
throughout the world to be change agents for sustainability
including goals on climate change, growth, and health
(Stephens et al., 2008; Barth, 2015).
CliVIA Network
Goals and curricula
The goal of the MGC is to build capacity on global change,
climate variability, climate risks, and VIA assessments in
order to conduct research and practice framed on the
principles of sustainability linked with 1) ESS, 2) IDR, 3) Po,
and 4) CBA approaches.
Curricula seek to develop a common scientific language and
basic knowledge across disciplines in order to face the
challenge of filling the gaps among disciplines, and between
the academia and society, as suggested by Rieckmann (2012)
and Grossfeld et al. (2013).
CliVIA Network
Earth System Science & Global Change
CliVIA-Net programmes focus on i) interdisciplinarity (IDR), ii)
partnership with stakeholders and decision-makers and iii) problem
orientation (Po). Examples of integrative top-down ESS-based and
bottom-up experiences are Practice-oriented Research (PoR) and
Problem orientation (Po) approaches.
A major difficulty in cross-disciplinary science is to find a proper
common language, where people from different disciplines can
explain their research question and contribute to solution
strategies. Consequently, these gaps are filled by providing a
scientific education and basic and expert knowledge on ESS
(Grossfeld et al., 2013).
CliVIA Network
Goals and curricula
Ongoing experiences are focusing on the application of
systems thinking and inquiry-based approaches to
teaching and learning about the interactions between
Earth Systems and climate risks (e.g. floodings, vectorborne diseases)
Harbottle Consulting
Goals and curricula
Graduated practice-oriented researchers and problemoriented practitioners might be able to understand climate
risks and be able to analyse, produce, and/or manage
climate and socio-economic scenarios, VIA assessments,
environmental changes, hydroclimatic variability and
extremes, and well-being in Paraguay and the Rio de la
Plata river basin.
Emphasis is given to the links between adaptation options,
Intra- and intergenerational equity, and sustainability.
CliVIA Network
Climate Change and Its Impacts: Connecting Local
Variability and Knowledge in a Global System
Brown International Advanced Research Institutes
2016
Convening Faculty: Meredith Hastings and Siri Veland
Participatory scenario planning for climate
change adaptation and coastal hazards:
"Thinking of alternative Futures“
or
“The Future begins Today”
Gustavo J Nagy
Associate Professor of Environmental Sciences, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República (FC-UdelaR), Montevideo, Uruguay.
Visiting Professor of Global Change and Climate Risks, Facultad Politécnica, Universidad Nacional de Asunción (FP-UNA), Paraguay.
Former IPCC Working Group II (Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation) Chapter 13: Latin America, Lead Author (2003-07)
Climate Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation (VIA) Network, Climate Change Virtual Center, FP-UNA
Researcher in Geosciences, Uruguayan Basic Sciences Program (PEDECIBA)
Researcher, Uruguay National Research System (SNI-ANII)
CliVIA-Net
BIARI 2016, Brown International Advanced Research Institutes:
2016 Climate Change and Its Impacts: Connecting Local Variability and Knowledge in a Global System
Providence, RI, USA, 4-18 June 2016
Using Scenarios to Explore Climate Change
National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior
Climate Change Response Program 2013
• Climate change adaptation requires us to continue to learn
from the past, but be “forward looking,” anticipate plausible
but unprecedented conditions, and expect surprises.
• In this context, we must revisit our management goals and
“desired conditions,” since frequently these describe our
expectations based on historic conditions.
• To that end, scenario work explores and describes
characteristics of several plausible futures, enabling
managers to consider how to define and meet their goals
(desired conditions) under changing, and new circumstances.
Predictability & Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Degree
Forecasting
Scenario
Planning
Predictability
Time
Harbottle Consulting
CliVIA Network
International Journal of Climate Change
Strategies and Management
Special issue Call for papers
The Role of Higher Education Institutions in Addressing the
Mitigation and Adaptation Challenges
…offering an overview of university-based research efforts
and projects on climate change, and to provide researchers
from across the spectrum of the natural and social sciences
with an opportunity to introduce innovative research
methods, present the results of empirical research or
showcase research initiatives focusing on climate change
mitigation and adaptation.
IJCCSM, Chief Editor: Dr Walter Leal Filho, HAW, Germany; Emerald Publishing,
Behavioural and Social Sciences, SCOPUS. IF : 0.8.
CliVIA Network
What is / why/ what for is CliVIA-Net?
• The CliVIA-Net is a by-product of the development of the Master of Science in
Global Change (MCG) of the FP-UNA from 2011-14 (Coronel et al., 2015).
• CliVIA-Net builds upon previous experiences intended to cooperate on global
change, climate risks, vulnerability assessments and indicators, and
adaptation initiatives in communities (Ferrara et al., 2012), water resources
(Coronel et al., 2015), well-being and health in relation to climate extremes in
Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay (Aparicio-Effen et al., 2016 a,b; Nagy et al.,
2016a), and in coastal areas of South America (Villamizar et al., 2016).
• The network was formalised in 2016 (http://clivianet.poliagile.com). This
coalition includes academic groups and programmes from Bolivia, Paraguay,
Uruguay and Venezuela, aimed at developing a collaborative network on VIA
education, research, and practice.
CliVIA Network
The overall question, goal and objectives
Overall question: How to face from the academia the challenges
posed by a changing climate on the natural and human
environment?
Goal: to introduce the approach for education, research and
practice (ERP) undertaken by the Climate Vulnerability, Impact and
Adaptation Network (CliVIA-Net).
Objectives: To i) highlight the foundation concepts and approaches
of the network as used in this article; ii) present five education,
research and/or practice-focused case studies and how they
include the key concepts, and iii), achieve a "Science for/of
Adaptation".
CliVIA Network
The methodological approach
….a series of case studies undertaken by academic
coalitions, and discussions to create a network linked
by similar climate-related problems to be solved at the
academic level.
It relies on both foundation concepts and a sequence of
reasoning for solving them which is expressed in five
case studies.
CliVIA Network
Definitions of key terms and foundation concepts
Adaptation “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploit
beneficial opportunities” (UKCIP, 2014).
Sustainability “… involves devising a human society which ensures their quality
of life in ways which simultaneously protect and enhance the earth's life
support systems under the principles, values, and practices of sustainable
development into all aspects of education and learning”(WCED, 1987; UNDESD, 2014).
Interdisciplinary research (IDR) “A process of answering a question, solving a
problem, or addressing a topic that is too broad or complex to be dealt with
adequately by a single discipline or profession” (Klein and Newell, 1998).
CliVIA Network
Earth System Science (ESS) “The application of systems thinking to Earth
Sciences which provide a physical basis for understanding the world in
which we live and upon which humankind seeks to achieve sustainability”
(Ruzek, 2007). “It is based on highly interdisciplinary research, demanding a
broad basic knowledge of the different research aspects, their feedbacks, and
interconnections” (Grossfeld et al., 2013).
Participatory Practice-oriented research (PoR) “Involves inquiry into the
methods, systems, programs, and policies of professional practice. In a case
study context, this means an investigation of a particular example, or case,
related to some aspect of practice. The goal of the practice-oriented research
is to utilize research knowledge to enhance the development and
implementation of practice and policy" (Marshall, 2010)...[It] relates to
projects that focus on the connection between research and practice "From
knowledge into taking action" including bottom-up and top-down actions,
local and scientific knowledge, and a vast array of stakeholders…. (Gaillard
and Mercer,2013).
CliVIA Network tomado de IPCC 2104
Problem orientation (Po)“The quest to formulate research questions that are
most likely to provide the answers that actors need” (Kueffer and Hirsch
Hadorn, 2008).
Community-based adaptation (CBA) “Community-based adaptation operates at
the local level in communities that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change. It identifies, assists, and implements community-based development
activities that strengthen the capacity of local people to adapt to living in a
riskier and less predictable climate” (Ayers and Forsyth, 2009).
EcoHealth: an Ecosystem approach to health for a global sustainability agenda.
"A field of research, education, and practice that impulse transdisciplinary
frameworks of health-research and partnership projects with stakeholders
and affected communities with a view to developing environmentally
sustainable, community-based interventions to improve the health of affected
communities" (Charron, 2012; EcohHealth, 2014).
CliVIA Network tomado de Harbottle 2013
• Science for/of Adaptation: ……..the following comprehensive statement of
Swart et al. (2014) blends many of the definitions presented above and the
goals of CliVIA-Net: “Participatory, practice-oriented research with strong
stakeholder participation has to be complemented by and connected to
knowledge that has been developed in disciplinary sciences. There is a need
of a Science of/for Adaptation (SofA). The level and method of participation in
SofA should be determined on the basis of the specific project context and
goals. More emphasis on the science of adaptation can lead to improved
understanding of the conditions for successful science for adaptation”.
CliVIA Network tomado de Harbottle 2013
The main objectives of CliVIA-Net are to:
• Improve interdisciplinarity and Earth System Science graduate level
education in order to address climate change and variability threats,
environmental change, and disaster risk reduction (DRR), particularly in
relation to ENSO events.
• Influence decision-making on local and regional levels.
• Integrate climatic, environmental and health sciences with socioeconomic information.
• Assess climate VIA focused on monitoring and evaluation systems.
• Achieve dialogue between local and academic knowledge to co-produce
solutions to questions in partnership with stakeholders.
CliVIA Network
Y aquí estamos……
An international congress on “Global Change
and Climate Risks in Paraguay and the Rio de
la Plata Basin” will be held in mid-2017 at FPUNA, organised by the NGO “Guyra
Paraguay” and the MCG Programme, with the
participation of CliVIA-Net researchers.
Harbottle Consulting
Conclusions
The purpose of this article was to present the CliVIANetwork, a university-based collaborative education,
research and practice effort on climate change and
variability adaptation in Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and
Venezuela.
The network builds on a framework of foundation concepts
such as Earth System Science basic knowledge, crossdisciplinary language, practice-oriented research and
problem-oriented practice approaches, e.g. Communitybased adaptation and EcoHealth.
Harbottle Consulting
The main results…….
The main results are expressed in terms of solution-based
approaches from the academy to a set of regional cases which have
in common similar threats and challenges addressed to give common
solutions.
The foundation concepts and approaches were mobilised at each
case study through:
Harbottle Consulting
i)
Connecting basic disciplinary knowledge and interdisciplinary
education with practice research to solving climate-related
societal challenges (e.g. EcoHealth);
ii) focusing on Practice-oriented Research and Problem orientation
CBA and EcoHealth approaches to face emergent climate-related
socio-environmental problems, e.g. vector-borne diseases; coastal
floodings and sea-level rise (e.g. CEVH-I; PSP);
iii) co-producing knowledge and solutions with experts and
stakeholders in Practice-oriented Research and problem orientation
approaches, e.g. EcoHealth, which is already influencing decisionmaking (e.g. aggregated Chagas Vulnerability Index).
CliVIA-Net
The main challenges faced to develop CliVIA-Net are to i)
achieve interdisciplinarity, ii) integrate stakeholders, iii) coproduce knowledge and solutions, and iv) influence decisionmaking in adaptation.
The first three have been successfully achieved by all
groups, while the fourth has been yet achieved by ClimEcoHealth, CEHV-I, and CLCC.
The programmes SAVIA-Coast and “Thinking of Futures” are
profiting from the experience of the network and have
focused on research and education.
CliVIA-Net
Despite the worldwide trend to develop adaptation programmes, it
remains a challenge in the four countries involved in the network.
CliVIA-Net intervenes as an alternative to this trend in the Higher
Education systems. This experience suggests that Higher Education
institutional learning is an important component of effective adaptation
to climate change and variability.
The value of CliVIA-Net is been successful in integrating "from
knowledge into action" based on interdisciplinary graduate education,
partnership, participatory research and problem-oriented action.
Currently, the network is moving forward towards "reaching a science
for/of adaptation" at research and practice, by developing scientific
production, conferences, and a proven influence on decision-making.
CliVIA-Net
The main challenges faced to develop CliVIA-Net are to i)
achieve interdisciplinarity, ii) integrate stakeholders, iii) coproduce knowledge and solutions, and iv) influence decisionmaking in adaptation.
The first three have been successfully achieved by all
groups, while the fourth has been yet achieved by ClimEcoHealth, CEHV-I, and CLCC.
The programmes SAVIA-Coast and “Thinking of Futures” are
profiting from the experience of the network and have
focused on research and education.
CliVIA-Net
Aggregated climate-health vulnerability index for the Chagas disease
The Chagas disease health vulnerability index (CCHVI) aggregates climate and non-climate indicators. The
former represents the nature and magnitude of change through relationships between Δ1 and Δ2. The latter are
divided in:
i) Direct Health Vulnerability Index (DHVI) which represents health sector performance (COI), e.g. health coverage
and socio-economic indicators to assess the Adaptation Capacity Index (HCAI), and
ii) Indirect Health Vulnerability Index (IHVI) which includes an epidemiological index (EI) of infestation extent and
other sectors index (OSI) of disease from climate change (Smith et al., 2014), e.g. socio-economic shortcomings
of households (UBNI), Ecosystem Integrity (Herzog et al., 2011) influence on diseases (IEI), estimated from
climatic indicators for 2005 and 2015.
Two exposure indexes are included: I) Percentage of households with UBNI and ii) Human vulnerability index
(HVI) related to outbreaks of the disease. The CCHVI aggregates both direct and indirect indices and the climate
index expressed as follows:
CCHVI= CI ((COI + (EI + OSI)/ACI or CI (ΣHDV+ ΣHIVI) /ACI
This climate health index is useful to implement adaptation actions and to identify the responsibility of policymakers and stakeholders. To calculate the "Future Index for 2025” (CCHVI-2025), the same process is followed,
including the outputs of the climate scenarios and Δ2 instead of Δ1.
The CCHV indicators and aggregated index can be applied to any disease or disaster, just changing the
indicators in order to formulate climate VIA policies.
CliVIA-Net
Survey Monkey
"Facing climate change scepticism at universities"
Dear Colleagues,
We are performing a "study about perceptions on whether and how universities should deal with issues related
to climate change in operations and curriculum". We would be grateful if you could contribute to our online
survey about this topic. Please respond to our survey based on your university experience. All data will be
kept anonymous and we can send the paper to be produced, to anyone interested in getting a copy.
Kindly copy and paste or click on this link (if supported) in your browser to fill in questionnaire.
Facing climate change scepticism at universities: the contribution from education
Walter Leal Filho, Jan Jasper, Mark Mifsud, Petra Moltan-Hill, Gustavo Nagy, Lucas Veigas, Nicholas Worsfold.
The following is the link.
htpps://www.surveymonkey.com.r/CLIMATECHANGESCEPTICISMUNIVERSITIES
It will be kept open till 7th July and see the responses ...than we can decide if we will leave open for longer or
close.
The paper will be presented at the Symposium on Universities and Climate Change, to be held in London in December
CliVIA-Net