Download CCSP Observations: Overview and Critical Issues

CCSP Observations
Overview and Critical Issues
Robert Cahalan, NASA
May 16, 2006
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Critical issues for CCSP and USGEO
•
•
•
•
Observations and Monitoring
Integration – conceptual and model-based
Decision Support / Societal Benefits
Metrics
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
CCSP Guiding Vision
A nation and the global community empowered
with the science-based knowledge to manage the
risks and opportunities of change in the climate
and related environmental systems.
USGEO Vision Statement
Enable a healthy public, economy, and planet
through an integrated, comprehensive, and
sustained Earth observation system.
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
CCSP Strategic Plan
Climate Science Goals
1. Improve Knowledge of Climate and
Environment
2. Improve Quantification of Forces
Driving Changes to Climate
3. Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of
Future Climate Changes
4. Understand Sensitivity & Adaptability
of Natural and Manmade Ecosystems
5. Explore Uses and Limits of Managing
Risks and Opportunities
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
CCSP Internal Structure
CCSP Interagency Committee
Director: Asst. Sec. of Commerce
for Oceans & Atmosphere
Interagency
Working Groups
CCSP Office
Obs (Data Mgmt)
HD / HCR
Communications
Climate Var. & Change (Modeling)
LULCC
Ecosystems
Water Cycle
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Atm. Comp.
Carbon Cycle
Internat.
Deliverables from CCSP Strategic Plan
Chapter 12: Observing & Monitoring the Climate System
Chapter 13: Data Management and Information
• Total: 106 Deliverables
• Obs: 81 Deliverables related to 28 Objectives! e.g.:
–
–
–
–
–
Obj 1.1: Develop a requirements-based design for the climate observing system
Obj 1.7: Assess observing system performance with uniform monitoring tools
and evaluation
Obj 1.10: Develop a requirements-based program for collecting, integrating, and
analyzing social, economic, and health factors with environmental change
Obj 4.3. Utilize climate system models to assist in the design of observation
systems.
Obj 6.3. Develop science and management advisory boards and councils to
prioritize across climate system components and to guide system evolution.
• DIS: 25 Deliverables related to 11 Objectives. e.g.:
–
–
–
–
Obj 1.1: Develop standard metadata guidelines.
Obj 2.1: Improve access to data.
Obj 3.1: Establish links between data providers and decisionmakers.
Obj 4.2: Preserve historical records.
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Observational and Monitoring
Challenges
• How to address diversity of gaps in observations:
—Key observations to address critical science questions
(e.g., water vapor feedback; carbon sequestration;
ecosystem dynamics)
 use of models to help define new obs
—Benchmark observations for long-term analysis (e.g.
GPS Radio Occultation, TSI, climate reference
radiosondes and surface network)
—Socio-economic data related to climate impacts
• How to address long-term climate monitoring
requirements?
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Climate Monitoring Principles
Climate monitoring systems should adhere to the following principles:
• Assess impact of potential changes to existing systems
• Overlap new and old observing systems
• Describe rigorous metadata
• Regularly assess the quality and homogeneity of the data
• Consider the needs for environmental and climate-monitoring
products/assessments
• Maintain operation of historically-uninterrupted stations and observing systems
• New obs should be focused on data-poor and change-sensitive regions and poorlyobserved parameters
• Long-term requirements should be specified at the outset of system design and
implementation
• Promote the conversion of research observing systems to long-term operations
• Include data management systems that facilitate access, use, and interpretation of
data and products
Furthermore, satellite systems for monitoring climate need to:
• Make calibration and cross-calibration a part of operational satellite systems
• Sample the Earth system to resolve climate-relevant (diurnal, seasonal, and longterm interannual) variations
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Integration Challenges
• How to link societal benefits to measurement criteria?
—Ongoing user input, and delivery system to users.
—How to interact with users & stakeholders and add
regional value?
• How to link disparate observations to integrated problem
solutions?
—A bewildering array of observations
—The observations within this array differ in, e.g.:
 what is being measured
 how often the measurements are taken
 their consistency with each other
 their accuracy
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Integrated Earth System Analysis
Overarching objective
Improve the scientific capacity to assimilate current and
planned future observations from disparate observing
systems into Earth system models that include physical,
chemical, and biological processes in order to produce
the best synthesized description of the state of the Earth
system and how it is evolving over time.
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Schematic of Earth System
Analysis/Assimilation
Assimilation
Model(s)
Best
synthesized
description of
the state of the
Earth system
Best available representation of
natural processes
Internally consistent and complete
gridded Earth system variables at
high time resolution
Diverse array of Earth system
observations
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Where does Earth system analysis fit in GEOSS?
Analyses
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Two primary components
Ongoing Earth System Analyses:
To provide the national foundation for assessing in near real-time
and on an ongoing basis the current state of the global Earth
system.
Earth System Reanalyses:
To define a baseline “Earth System Analysis of Record” to serve as
the nation’s best assessment of how the Earth system has varied
over the recent historical period.
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Benefits of Earth System Analysis
The outcomes are vital to both USGEO and CCSP.
• Provide important societal benefits for weather forecasting, disaster
reduction, ocean resource protection, climate variability and change
applications, agricultural, forestry, and ecological management, human health,
and water and energy resources
• Provide the best possible description of recent behavior of the Earth system
for informing policy options related to global-to-regional environmental
variations and change.
• Provide historical and ongoing analyses of the Earth system to support a wide
array of research studies, especially on the coupled system; inform model
development and observational system approaches.
• Support climate forecasts and climate predictability research.
• Contribute to GEOSS: IESA produced by assimilating diverse observations
into Earth system models provides an essential integrating component that is
required for a true end-to-end Global Earth Observation System of Systems.
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Societal Benefits / Decision Support
For societal benefit, need predictions, impacts, and tools
• critical to both USGEO and CCSP
Predictions
— Seasonal-to-interannnual and decadal-to-centennial predictions and
projections (improvements based in process understanding and
initialization, etc.)
— Assessment of observational changes on predictions
— Need process to better engage models in improving GEOSS
Impact Assessments
— Drought and other changes in characteristics of weather and
climate extremes
— Biodiversity and productivity
Tools
— Decision support tools (e.g., web-based, human-based)
Note: NRC CHDGC meeting on incorporating human dimensions in observing
systems (May 19-20)
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Metrics
Evaluate and prioritize diverse observations critical to USGEO and CCSP
— Satellite, Airborne, Surface
— Benchmark observations. E.g. GPS Radio Occultation, TSI
— Socio-economic data related to climate impacts
CCSP deliberations based on NRC report “Thinking Strategically: The
Appropriate Use of Metrics for the Climate Change Science Program”
Observations Interagency Working Group workshop, June 14-15.
Primary Purpose: Develop a process to define and evolve more rigorous
climate observing system requirements. This process would include metrics
to evaluate and prioritize GCOS, especially U.S. contributions.
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Observations Interagency Working Group
Workshop
Inputs include:
• Assessments of highest priority observations from each CCSP IWG
• NRC report
Benefits:
• More rigorous climate observing system requirements and metrics.
• Improved evaluation of proposed observational systems;
• Use of climate model physics in cost/benefit analysis of observing
system improvements
Outputs:
• Roadmap for the OWG and OWGDIS to better coordinate climate
observational activities across the CCSP agencies.
• Recommendations on methodologies & tools for obs/dis evaluation
• Short plan of 7-10 pages.
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Bottom Line
Critical needs for both CCSP and GEOSS include
regularly updated Earth system reanalyses,
metrics for GEOSS that include climate observing principles,
continued development of decision support tools, and
improved mechanisms of user feedback.
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Backup Slides
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
CCSP Observational and
Monitoring Goals (Ch. 12)
1. Design, develop, deploy, integrate, and sustain
observation components into a comprehensive
system.
2. Accelerate the development and deployment of
observing and monitoring elements needed for
decision support.
3. Provide stewardship of the observing system.
4. Integrate modeling activities with the observing
system.
5. Foster international cooperation to develop a
complete global observing system.
6. Manage the observing system with an effective
interagency structure.
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
CCSP Data Management and
Information Goals (Ch. 13)
1. Collect and manage data in multiple locations.
2. Enable users to discover and access data and
information via the Internet.
3. Develop integrated information data products for
scientists and decisionmakers.
4. Preserve data.
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Synthesis & Assessment Products
1.1 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: Steps for understanding and
reconciling differences (Q1 ’06, approval imminent; NOAA)
1.2 Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes (Q2 ’08; USGS)
1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. Implications for
attribution of causes of observed change (Q2 ’08; NOAA)
2.1 Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations and review
of integrated scenario development and application (Q4 ’06; DOE)
2.2 North American carbon budget & implications for the global carbon cycle (Q1 ’07;
NOAA)
2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate (Q3 ’07; NASA)
2.4 Trends in emissions of ODSs, ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet
radiation exposure and climate change. (Q2 ’08; NOAA)
3.1 Climate models: An assessment of strengths and limitations for user applications (Q2
’07; DOE)
3.2 Climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios
developed through the Climate Change Technology Program (Q3 ’07; NOAA)
3.3 Climate extremes: Analysis of the observed changes and variations and prospects for
the future (Q2 ’08; NOAA)
3.4 Risks of abrupt changes in global climate (Q2 ’08; USGS)
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
S&A Products (cont.)
4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise (Q3 ’07; EPA)
4.2 State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities (sudden
changes) in some ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources (Q4 ’07; USGS)
4.3 Analyses of the effects of global change on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water
resources (Q4 ’07; USDA)
4.4 Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and
resources (Q4 ’07; EPA)
4.5 Effects of climate change on energy production and use (Q2 ’07; DOE)
4.6 Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human
systems (Q4 ’07; EPA)
4.7 Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate change and variability
sensitivities, potential impacts, and response options (Q4 ’07; DOT)
5.1 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision
support for selected sectors and regions (Q4 ’06; NASA)
5.2 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating
scientific uncertainty in decision making ( Q3 ’06; NOAA)
5.3 Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to inter-annual
forecasts and observational data (Q4 ’07; NOAA)
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
2005 OWG Highlights
• IEOS Strategic Plan – Authored Climate Appendix and
more complete Climate IEOS Technical Reference :
• http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/docs/EOCStrategic_Plan.pdf
• http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/docs/review/Climate_Technical.pdf
•IEOS Public Engagement Workshop (May 2005) –
Participated in and Hosted Session on Climate :
http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/docs/geo126SBA_Climate_Variability_breakout_summary4.doc
• Our Changing Planet 2006 – Authored New Chapter on
“Observing and Monitoring the Climate System”
• CCSP User Workshop (Nov 2005) – Session 1 Rapporteur
• “Simple Maturity Model”
of OWGDIS
ASIC3 Workshop,
May 16, 2006
Simple Maturity Model
•
Scientific Maturity
Maturity of
data for use
DIS maturity in terms of three
separate dimensions:
–
–
–
•
Societal Impact
CMMI-like levels:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Preservation
Maturity
•
Scientific Maturity
Preservation Maturity
Societal Impact
Initial – Unpredictable results
Managed – Repeatable performance
Defined – Cross-project interoperability
Quantitatively Managed – Improved performance +
Compliance with Federal Enterprise Architecture
Optimized – Rapidly configurable performance +
Continuous Process Improvement
Total maturity = vector length
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Feedback from IEOS Workshop in May 2005
• Enhance Integration of Socio-economic Data and Societal Benefits
–
Climate scenarios extend a century or more whereas socioeconomic data extends a couple decades at best
–
Provide examples of societal benefits of climate data in lay terms
(e.g., building a dam)
• Address Funding Challenges
–
–
–
–
Maintenance of data, data continuity, consistency of data, etc. which
is critical to climate work
Funding for taking measurements versus funding for sharing and
applying data and model integration (validation is equally as
important)
Gap in funding the processing of data to make it useful
Funding of big “--OS” projects is diminishing funding of smaller
observational projects
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Feedback from IEOS Workshop (cont’d)
• Better at predicting climate change rather than climate
change impacts
• Understand, assess, and predict are covered, mitigation and
adaptation are lacking [Input from CCTP Strat Plan ?]
• Socio-economic observational systems are missing
• How do we focus efforts to address uncertainty (e.g., reduce
uncertainty about uncertainty, understand uncertainty, and
reduce uncertainty)
•
**Uncertainty because we don’t know versus
Uncertainty from natural variations
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Decision Support Goals (Ch. 11)
1. Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments to
support informed discussion of climate variability and
change issues by decisionmakers, stakeholders, the
media, and the general public.
2. Develop resources to support adaptive management
and planning for responding to climate variability and
change, and transition these resources from
research to operational application.
3. Develop and evaluate methods (scenario
evaluations, integrated analyses, alternative
analytical approaches) to support climate change
policymaking and demonstrate these methods with
case studies.
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
DS Goal 2: Support for Adaptive
Management/Planning
Adaptive Management: A systematic approach
used in managing climate-sensitive resources and
sectors to adjust to variability and change in
climate and other conditions that utilizes “learning
by doing” (integrating knowledge with practice)
• This area of work grows out of the insight that ongoing process is
key to assessment and decision support and requires close
interaction of users and producers of information
• Many adaptive management projects in the United States are
extensions of the first U.S. National Assessment’s stakeholderdriven and interdisciplinary collaborations
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Example: Wildfire Management
biomass burning
and the Workshop
carbon cycle
••Research
NationalonSeasonal
Assessment
provides
the scientific
basis for
monitoring
A multi-agency
collaboration
thatwildfire
produces
forecasts and
and
management…
e.g. and enables participants to plan for
maps of fire potential
the coming fire seasons.
• Interdisciplinary initiative on the interactions
among wildfire, climate and society
– Develops models and
other support tools
– Scenario generation
– Fire risk assessment
Source: Gregg Garfin, University of Arizona
ASIC3 Workshop, May 16, 2006
Photo: New York Times