Download Climate change impacts on agriculture in Europe Blaž Kurnik

Climate change impacts on agriculture in Europe
Blaž Kurnik
Climate change impacts and adaptation
European Environment Agency
“Climate change is a global problem with
grave implications: environmental, social,
economic, political and for the distribution of
goods. It represents one of the principal
challenges facing humanity in our day. Its
worst impact will probably be felt by
developing countries in coming decades.”
ENCYCLICAL LETTER LAUDATO SI’ OF THE HOLY FATHER FRANCIS, 2015
Important events in 2015
• Sendai Framework on DRR 2015-2030
— Links between Disaster risk reduction and Climate Change Adaptation
• Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)
– Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity
– Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning
– Implement the commitment of mobilising $100 billion by 2020
• COP 21
– 2 oC target agreement (150 countries contributing to 90 % global emissions to
commit)
European investments into Climate Change Service – Copernicus programme
•
To support mitigation and adaptation policies in Europe
•
To be an authoritative source of climate information for Europe (evidence based policy making)
•
To build upon national investments and complement national climate service providers
•
To support the market for climate services in Europe
•
Investing of around 250 M€ between 2015 and 2020
How is the climate
changing?
• Observations
• Reanalyses
Source: ECMWF, 2015
Will climate change
continue, accelerate?
What are the
societal impacts?
• Climate indicators
• Sectoral information – including
Agriculture
• Predictions
• Projections
EEA products on Climate Change
Weather and climate
related extreme events
Direct support for developing European policies by
providing reliable, relevant, timely, and targeted
information
Key observed and projected impacts from climate change for the main regions in Europe- SOER
2015
EEA SOER report, 2015
Climate change indicators-European temperature
Projected temperature
Source: Euro-CORDEX Jacob et el. 2014
Projected precipitation
Source: Euro-CORDEX Jacob et el. 2014
Climate change impacts …
… and agriculture
Climate change and agriculture
• Extreme weather and climate events –
droughts, heat waves, hail, frost, …
Weather and climate
related extreme events
2015 Technical Report on extreme events
• Climate and changes in agriculture –
changes in growing season, agrophenology, crop productivity,
crop water demand
2016 EEA report on Climate change impacts in Europe
Extremes and agriculture – key findings
Extreme climatic events, including droughts
and heat waves, have negatively affected
crop productivity during the first decade of
the 21st century.
Projected increases in extreme climatic
events are expected to further increase yield
variability in the future throughout Europe.
Climate change and extreme events
With anthropogenic CO2 emissions
Extreme events can be attributed
to anthropogenic climate change.
Without anthropogenic CO2 emissions
Source: Christidis et al., 2015
About 75% of the present day
moderate daily hot extremes over
land are attributable to human
influence.
Heat waves and agriculture
Fischer & Schär, 2010
• Under future climate change the number, duration, and intensity of heat waves is expected
to increase
• Summers like that experienced in 2003 will become commonplace by the 2040s
• Prolonged high, or extreme summer temperatures lead to reduced crop yields
• Heat waves are also more persistent when there are soil moisture deficits
Droughts and agriculture
Changes in summer soil moisture between the
periods 1961 to 1990 and 2021 to 2050
Heinrich and Gobiet, 2011
•
Drought studies have
identified drought hotspots
in the Mediterranean and
southern Europe, the
Carpathians and the
Balkans.
•
Regional climate models for
Europe project a decrease
in summer soil moisture of
17 % on average, and by 30
% in June for the period of
2071-2100.
•
Dry periods are expected to
occur 3 times more often at
the end of the current
century and to last longer
by 1 to 3 days compared to
the period of 1971-2000.
Hail
Trends in Probabilistic Hail Index (PHI) between 1951 and 2010
• The atmosphere has become more unstable
over the last two to three decades in parts
of central Europe, south France and Spain
PHI between 2021-2050 and 1971-2000
Mohr et al., 2015
• Hailstorm projection studies, although
limited to France, Northern Italy and
Germany, show increases in the convective
conditions that lead to hail and in some
areas an increase in damage days.
Source: KIT (Mohr, Kunz, and Geyer, 2015)
Climate impact on agriculture
• The cultivation of crops, their productivity and quality, are
directly dependent on different climatic factors
• Climate change is already having an impact on agriculture and it
is one of the factors contributing to stagnation in wheat yields in
parts of Europe despite continued progress in crop breeding
• Climate change is expected to continue to affect agriculture in
the with effects greatly varying in Europe.
Growing season and phenology for agricultural crops
Trends in length of growing season
Source: JRC – IES, 2015
Trends in flowering date for wheat
Growing season and phenology for agricultural
crops
•
Growing season has lengthened by more than 10 days in last 40 years – the most in
northern and eastern Europe.
•
The growing season is projected to increase further throughout most of Europe.
•
The projected lengthening of the thermal growing season would allow a northward
expansion of warm-season crops to areas that were not previously suitable.
•
Flowering of several annual crops has advanced by about two days per decade in the last
40 years - affecting crop production
•
The shortening of crop growth phases in many crops is expected to continue.
Agriculture water demand – soil water deficit
Ensemble of models based on A1B scenario
Agriculture water demand
Source: JRC –IES ,2015
WOFOST projections of change in crop water deficit for grain maize growing
season in 2030s, as compared to the reference period centred around 2000 for
two different global climate models based on RCP8.5
Red: increases in crop water deficit
Blue: decreases in crop water deficit
Agriculture water demand
•
Climate change had led to an increase in the crop water demand and crop water deficit
in large parts of central and southern Europe.
•
The projected increases in temperature will lead to increased potential
evapotranspiration rates  increasing crop water demand across Europe.
•
The impact of increasing water requirements is expected to be most acute in southern
and central Europe, where the crop water deficit and irrigation requirements are
projected to increase.
Conclusions
•
An increase in the duration of the thermal growing season has led to northward
expansion of areas suitable for several crops.
•
Changes in crop phenology have been observed, such as advancement of flowering
and harvest dates in cereals.
•
Recent heat waves, droughts, frost and hail have greatly reduced the yield of some
crops. The projected increase in the occurrence of such events is expected to increase
risk of crop losses.
•
Climate change is projected to improve the suitability for growing crops in northern
Europe and to reduce crop productivity in large parts of southern Europe. Projections
based on different climate models agree on the direction of the change, but with some
variation in its magnitude.
Thank you
See for more information:
http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate
http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/
[email protected]