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Putting global warming into perspective Geologist Hugh Abercrombie has noted that there have been seven major glacial epochs in the 4.5 billion years of Earth’s history. We are actually still in an ice age climate today, though for the past 10,000 years we have enjoyed a warmer interglacial break. This is only a temporary situation because for the last 750,000 years, interglacial periods have occurred at 100,000 year intervals and lasted about 15,000 to 20,000 years before returning to a more severe ice age climate. We are now 18,000 years into the present interglacial cycle. Abercrombie also noted that the major glacial epochs have covered some 200-400 million years or 4 to 9% of the age of the Earth. He says, “This means that for more than 90% of Earth’s history global temperatures have been higher than they are now”. So the real question, he says, is not why is the Earth warming and what can we do to stop it, but rather, why is the Earth as cold as it is now? This turns the entire warming debate on its head. This cool period we live in now is not part of Earth’s normal temperature range. For most of our planet’s history the climate and atmosphere have been much hotter and more humid than today. But even more important to note is that for most of Earth’s history there has been far more carbon dioxide (the so-called greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere than there is today. As the people at Geocraft note (www.geocraft.com) our present atmosphere is “CO2-impoverished”. They explain that in the last 600 million years of Earth’s history only the Carboniferous Period and our present age, the Quaternary Period, have experienced CO2 levels less than 400 ppm (parts per million). Also, the Late Carboniferous is the only period in the past 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as now. During the Jurassic Period average CO2 were about 1800 ppm and during the Cambrian Period they were nearly 7000 ppm. “Today at 370 ppm our atmosphere is CO2impoverished, although environmentalists, certain political groups and the news media would have us believe otherwise”. The Geocraft people then make this striking point: “To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today- 4400 ppm. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming” (www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html). They conclude: “The causes of ‘global warming’ and climate change are today being popularly described in terms of human activities. However, climate change is something that happens constantly on its own. If humans are in fact altering Earth’s climate with our cars, electrical powerplants, and factories, these changes must be larger than the natural climate variability in order to be measurable. So far the signal of a discernible human contribution to global climate change has not emerged from this natural variability or background noise”. We now recognize that the major factors in climate variation are cyclical variations in the sun’s energy output (sunspot activity), eccentricities in Earth’s orbit and the influence of plate tectonics on the distribution of continents and oceans which influences ocean circulation (see www.geocraft.com, Global Warming: A Chilling Perspective). A decidedly minor factor in climate variation is the greenhouse effect. Within this minor factor is the further miniscule element of CO2 and especially CO2 from human sources (6 billion tons annually out of a total of 186 billion from all sources, mostly natural). 95% of the greenhouse effect is due to water vapor which occurs naturally. Of the remaining 5%, only .2% or maybe .3% is due to CO2 emissions and other gases. As the Geocraft site notes, “Even the most aggressive and costly proposals for limiting industrial CO2 emissions would have an undetectable effect on global climate”. There is simply no sound evidence that emissions from burning fossil fuels are warming the planet. And the strongest evidence that warming alarmists employ is taken from highly unreliable computer models. Unfortunately, the news media have taken this unreliable evidence and repeated it often enough to give the public the impression that they are presenting ‘truth’ based on “an agreed upon world-wide consensus”. This is nonsense. Further, we need to remember that “CO2 is a nutrient, not a pollutant, and all life- plants and animals- benefit from more of it” (www.geocraft.com). Without solid scientific evidence (in fact, the good evidence is to the contrary) many countries, coerced by environmental scare-mongering, have now lined up to take drastic action to cut CO2 emissions and potentially harm their economies in the process. This is patently foolhardy especially when the costs of such action have been estimated to be in the multiple trillions of dollars. If anything, as someone suggested, we should be increasing CO2 emissions to offset progress into the next Ice Age. We are nearing the end of an interglacial period and overdue to begin entering the next 100,000 year long Ice Age. Global cooling is probably more of an actual threat than global warming. It would certainly be wiser for us to continue increasing economic development and the creation of wealth in order to prepare our societies to deal with the consequences of natural climate change which has been occurring throughout Earth’s history and which we can not stop. Bjorn Lomberg (The Skeptical Environmentalist) has noted that the societies that have prospered most have also done the best job of solving their environmental problems. One potential consequence of climate variation is rising ocean levels. Just 18,000 years ago the sea level was as much as 120 meters lower than today. The last 10,000 to 15,000 years has already seen a dramatic rise in sea level. However, experts argue that it is not likely that we will experience any further sudden sea elevations in the near future (“Scientists say Earth has a long history of running hot and cold”, at www.niu.edu). There is also evidence that ice is accumulating in Antartica, rather than melting, and ocean levels are actually falling (see “A Chilling Tale”, FP11, National Post, Dec.11/04). This corresponds to the fact that over the past few decades Greenland and Iceland have experienced a cooling trend. Other consequences of climate variability include impacts on croplands. But as Julian Simon has noted in his Ultimate Resource 2, we already possess the hydroponic technology and we could feed the world’s population on a land area of some 10 times the size of the city of Milwaukee (using 10 story buildings). We need not fear possible climate change because we already have the expertise and technology required to make any adjustments that might be called for. The next decades and centuries will produce even more remarkable advances in understanding the world and this will enable humanity to continue to survive and prosper. The ancient shaman was right when he counseled: “Do not fear the universe”. Unfortunately, we are not hearing this wisdom from the environmental movement. Wendell Krossa, Maple Ridge, BC.