Download Putting global warming into perspective

Putting global warming into perspective
Geologist Hugh Abercrombie has noted that there have been seven major glacial epochs
in the 4.5 billion years of Earth’s history. We are actually still in an ice age climate today,
though for the past 10,000 years we have enjoyed a warmer interglacial break. This is
only a temporary situation because for the last 750,000 years, interglacial periods have
occurred at 100,000 year intervals and lasted about 15,000 to 20,000 years before
returning to a more severe ice age climate. We are now 18,000 years into the present
interglacial cycle.
Abercrombie also noted that the major glacial epochs have covered some 200-400 million
years or 4 to 9% of the age of the Earth. He says, “This means that for more than 90% of
Earth’s history global temperatures have been higher than they are now”. So the real
question, he says, is not why is the Earth warming and what can we do to stop it, but
rather, why is the Earth as cold as it is now? This turns the entire warming debate on its
head. This cool period we live in now is not part of Earth’s normal temperature range.
For most of our planet’s history the climate and atmosphere have been much hotter and
more humid than today. But even more important to note is that for most of Earth’s
history there has been far more carbon dioxide (the so-called greenhouse gas) in the
atmosphere than there is today. As the people at Geocraft note (www.geocraft.com) our
present atmosphere is “CO2-impoverished”. They explain that in the last 600 million
years of Earth’s history only the Carboniferous Period and our present age, the
Quaternary Period, have experienced CO2 levels less than 400 ppm (parts per million).
Also, the Late Carboniferous is the only period in the past 600 million years when both
atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as now.
During the Jurassic Period average CO2 were about 1800 ppm and during the Cambrian
Period they were nearly 7000 ppm. “Today at 370 ppm our atmosphere is CO2impoverished, although environmentalists, certain political groups and the news media
would have us believe otherwise”.
The Geocraft people then make this striking point: “To the consternation of global
warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same
time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today- 4400 ppm.
According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global
temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric
carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming”
(www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html).
They conclude: “The causes of ‘global warming’ and climate change are today being
popularly described in terms of human activities. However, climate change is something
that happens constantly on its own. If humans are in fact altering Earth’s climate with our
cars, electrical powerplants, and factories, these changes must be larger than the natural
climate variability in order to be measurable. So far the signal of a discernible human
contribution to global climate change has not emerged from this natural variability or
background noise”.
We now recognize that the major factors in climate variation are cyclical variations in the
sun’s energy output (sunspot activity), eccentricities in Earth’s orbit and the influence of
plate tectonics on the distribution of continents and oceans which influences ocean
circulation (see www.geocraft.com, Global Warming: A Chilling Perspective). A
decidedly minor factor in climate variation is the greenhouse effect. Within this minor
factor is the further miniscule element of CO2 and especially CO2 from human sources
(6 billion tons annually out of a total of 186 billion from all sources, mostly natural). 95%
of the greenhouse effect is due to water vapor which occurs naturally. Of the remaining
5%, only .2% or maybe .3% is due to CO2 emissions and other gases. As the Geocraft
site notes, “Even the most aggressive and costly proposals for limiting industrial CO2
emissions would have an undetectable effect on global climate”.
There is simply no sound evidence that emissions from burning fossil fuels are warming
the planet. And the strongest evidence that warming alarmists employ is taken from
highly unreliable computer models. Unfortunately, the news media have taken this
unreliable evidence and repeated it often enough to give the public the impression that
they are presenting ‘truth’ based on “an agreed upon world-wide consensus”. This is
nonsense.
Further, we need to remember that “CO2 is a nutrient, not a pollutant, and all life- plants
and animals- benefit from more of it” (www.geocraft.com).
Without solid scientific evidence (in fact, the good evidence is to the contrary) many
countries, coerced by environmental scare-mongering, have now lined up to take drastic
action to cut CO2 emissions and potentially harm their economies in the process. This is
patently foolhardy especially when the costs of such action have been estimated to be in
the multiple trillions of dollars. If anything, as someone suggested, we should be
increasing CO2 emissions to offset progress into the next Ice Age. We are nearing the
end of an interglacial period and overdue to begin entering the next 100,000 year long Ice
Age. Global cooling is probably more of an actual threat than global warming.
It would certainly be wiser for us to continue increasing economic development and the
creation of wealth in order to prepare our societies to deal with the consequences of
natural climate change which has been occurring throughout Earth’s history and which
we can not stop. Bjorn Lomberg (The Skeptical Environmentalist) has noted that the
societies that have prospered most have also done the best job of solving their
environmental problems.
One potential consequence of climate variation is rising ocean levels. Just 18,000 years
ago the sea level was as much as 120 meters lower than today. The last 10,000 to 15,000
years has already seen a dramatic rise in sea level. However, experts argue that it is not
likely that we will experience any further sudden sea elevations in the near future
(“Scientists say Earth has a long history of running hot and cold”, at www.niu.edu).
There is also evidence that ice is accumulating in Antartica, rather than melting, and
ocean levels are actually falling (see “A Chilling Tale”, FP11, National Post, Dec.11/04).
This corresponds to the fact that over the past few decades Greenland and Iceland have
experienced a cooling trend.
Other consequences of climate variability include impacts on croplands. But as Julian
Simon has noted in his Ultimate Resource 2, we already possess the hydroponic
technology and we could feed the world’s population on a land area of some 10 times the
size of the city of Milwaukee (using 10 story buildings). We need not fear possible
climate change because we already have the expertise and technology required to make
any adjustments that might be called for. The next decades and centuries will produce
even more remarkable advances in understanding the world and this will enable humanity
to continue to survive and prosper. The ancient shaman was right when he counseled:
“Do not fear the universe”. Unfortunately, we are not hearing this wisdom from the
environmental movement.
Wendell Krossa, Maple Ridge, BC.