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An overview of climate change impacts on European
viticulture
H. Fraga, A. C. Malheiro, J. Moutinho-Pereira & J. A. Santos
Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Tr
as-os-Montes e Alto Douro,
P.O. Box 1013, 5001-801, Vila Real, Portugal
Keywords
Adaptation measures, climate change
projections, European viticulture, vine
physiology
Correspondence
Helder Fraga, Centre for the Research and
Technology of Agro-Environmental and
Biological Sciences, University of Tras-osMontes e Alto Douro, P.O. Box 1013,
5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal.
Tel: +351-259-350-389; Fax: +351-259-350-480;
E-mail: [email protected]
Funding Information
This work is supported by European Union
Funds (FEDER/COMPETE – Operational
Competitiveness Programme), by national
funds (FCT – Portuguese Foundation for
Science and Technology) under the project
FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022 692, and by the
FCT ClimVineSafe project PTDC/AGR-ALI/
110877/2009.
Received: 9 November 2012; Revised: 14
December 2012; Accepted: 18 January 2013
Abstract
The importance of viticulture and of the winemaking socioeconomic sector
in Europe is largely acknowledged. The most famous winemaking regions in
Europe commonly present very specific environmental characteristics, where
climate often plays a central role. Furthermore, given the strong influence of
the atmospheric factors on this crop, climate change can significantly affect
yield and wine quality under future conditions. Trends recorded in the recent
past on many viticultural regions in Europe hint at an already pronounced
increase in the growing-season mean temperatures. Furthermore, climatechange projections give evidence for significant changes in both the growingseason temperatures and precipitations in the next decades. Although
grapevines have several survival strategies, the mounting evidence for significant
climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation and mitigation
measures to be taken by the whole winemaking sector. Short-term adaptation
measures can be considered as a first protection strategy and should be focused
at specific threats, mostly changes in crop-management practices (e.g., irrigation, sunscreens for leaf protection). At long term, however, a wide range of
adaptation measures should be considered (e.g., varietal and land allocation
changes). An overview of the current scientific knowledge, mostly concerning
the European viticulture, the potential climate change impacts, and feasible
adaptation measures is provided herein.
doi: 10.1002/fes3.14
Viticulture Worldwide
Both viticulture and winemaking are important practices
that represent a key economic activity in many regions
worldwide. In the most recent report of the International
Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV 2012), it is estimated that the world’s vineyards reached a total area of
7.59 Mha in 2011, despite its decrease in the last few years
(Fig. 1A). This trend is clearly associated with the decrease
of the vineyard area over Europe. Although Europe has
lost some of its dominance to Asia, USA, and some southern hemisphere areas (Argentina, Australia, Chile, South
Africa), Europe still encompasses the largest vineyard area
in the world (38%; Fig. 1A). Based on the same report,
global wine production stood at 265 Mhl in 2011
(Fig. 1B), while wine consumption reached 244 Mhl. In
spite of the downward trend in vine surface area, grape
production underwent an upward trend over the last few
years (Fig. 1B). The world’s top wine-producing countries
(Table 1) are France, Italy, and Spain, while it is worth
noticing that China, Chile, and New Zealand recorded the
largest increases in production over the last years.
Figure 2 depicts the current viticultural regions of the
world, including some world-renowned winemaking
© 2013 The Authors. John Wiley & Sons and the Association of Applied Biologists. This is an open access article under
the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in
any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
1
Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture
H. Fraga et al.
(A)
(B)
Figure 1. (A) Total vine surface area and percentage of this area in Europe, Asia, USA + southern hemisphere regions, and others, from 2000 to
2011. (B) Total grape production, wine production, and wine consumption for 2000–2011. Adapted from OIV (2012).
regions, such as Bordeaux, Burgundy, California, Cape/
South Africa, Champagne, La Mancha, La Rioja,
Mendoza, Mosel, Porto/Douro, South Australia, Tuscany,
among others. The current viticultural regions are usually
within areas with Recognized Appellation of Origin
(RAO; Resolution OIV/ECO 2/92) or Designation of
Origin (DO; European Community 479/2008 Art. 34 1a),
which ensures the typicity of wines. In Europe, more specifically, these famous winemaking regions are traditionally distinguishable by their prevailing environmental
characteristics, such as climate, soils, and grown varieties.
While most of the regions in southern Europe have typi-
cal Mediterranean climates, with long, warm, and dry
summers, central and northern Europe are often characterized by more continental and/or humid climates, with
mild and rainy summers (Kottek et al. 2006; Peel et al.
2007). According to Carbonneau (2003), the microclimatic and mesoclimatic characteristics of a given viticultural
region are key factors in understanding its varietal suitability and wine types. These climatic aspects have been
valorized and properly taken into account in all ancestral
wine regions, where vine growers have gradually adapted
to best suit their regional/local environmental conditions
(Jones 2012).
2
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Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture
H. Fraga et al.
Table 1. Top 16 wine-producing countries in 2011 (with respective
growth rate from 2007). Total vineyard area in 2011 is also shown
(with respective growth rate from 2007). Table is sorted by a
descending order based on wine production (OIV 2012).
Country
Wine production
(Mhl)/growth rate
Vine area (mha)/
growth rate
France
Italy
Spain
USA
Argentina
China
Australia
Chile
South Africa
Portugal
Romania
Brazil
Greece
Hungary
New Zealand
Bulgaria
49.6
41.6
34.3
18.7
15.5
13.2
11.0
10.6
9.3
5.9
4.7
3.5
2.6
2.4
2.4
1.3
807
776
1032
405
218
560
174
202
131
240
204
92
111
65
37
73
9%
10%
1%
6%
3%
6%
14%
29%
1%
2%
11%
1%
26%
24%
59%
29%
7%
6%
4%
2%
4%
4%
0%
3%
12%
3%
0%
0%
6%
13%
21%
22%
Soil and cultural practices are also important controlling factors in the development of viticulture. It is widely
known that certain winegrape varieties produce the best
results in soils with specific characteristics. Soil chemistry
and structure may indeed influence wine grape composition (Mackenzie and Christy 2005). Moreover, management practices such as crop load, girdling, pinching,
pruning, rootstock and scion, thinning, and topping may
also influence wine grape growth and quality (Winkler
1974). Regarding the enological practices, Unwin (1996)
stated that they have remained nearly unchanged until
recent decades, when some technological breakthroughs
have been carried out. As such, climate, soil, and management practices form a highly complex and interactive
system called Terroir (Magalh~aes 2008). According to the
OIV (Resolution OIV/VITI 333/2010), “Terroir is a concept which refers to an area in which collective knowledge
of the interactions between the identifiable physical and
biological environment and applied vitivinicultural practices develops, providing distinctive characteristics for the
products originating from this area. Terroir includes specific soil, topography, climate, landscape characteristics
and biodiversity features.” This system significantly affects
vine development and berry composition and has been
accepted as a central aspect in determining wine quality
and typicity (van Leeuwen et al. 2004).
Nowadays, viticulture faces new challenges and threats,
some of the most important being related to climate
change. Therefore, a discussion on the interconnections
between vine physiology and climate is presented in Vine
Physiology and Climate Influences. The climate change
projections and their impacts on viticulture are presented
in Climate Change Projections in Agriculture and
Climate Change Impacts on Viticulture. Adaptation
and Mitigation Measures is devoted to the adaptation and
mitigation strategies. Finally, Conclusion outlines the
main outcomes.
Vine Physiology and Climate
Influences
The vine undergoes morphological and physiological
changes resulting from different stages of its vegetative
and reproductive cycles (Fig. 3). The duration of each
phenological stage differs according to each grapevine
variety, which is generally tied to the thermal conditions
of each region (Mandelli et al. 2005). The prediction of
Figure 2. World distribution of the viticultural regions (darker areas).
ª 2013 The Authors. John Wiley & Sons and the Association of Applied Biologists
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Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture
2
YEARS
H. Fraga et al.
REPRODUCTIVE CYCLE
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
1ST FLUSH
SHOOT
2ND FLUSH
BUDBURST
BERRY
CANE MATURATION
VERAISON
HARVEST
WEEPING
FLOWERING
SEASON
WINTER
DORMANCY
1 YEAR
LEAF DROP
ROOT
MATURATION
SPRING
AUTUMN
SUMMER
WINTER
DORMANCY
GROWING SEASON
VEGETATIVE CYCLE
Figure 3. Vegetative and reproductive cycles and vine phenological stages. Adapted from Eichorn and Lorenz (1977) and Magalh~
aes (2008).
stage evolution is of utmost importance in planning
viticultural activities and winemaking decisions (Lopes
et al. 2008). Jones (2006) showed that the length of the
growing season, for each variety, is directly related to the
growing-season mean temperature (Fig. 4). Additionally,
Webb et al. (2012) concluded that the length of the growing season could also be linked to soil moisture, air temperature, and crop-management practices. In fact, climate
strongly influences the development of this crop, by
requiring suitable temperatures, radiation intensities/duration, and water availability during its growth cycle, which
ultimately influence yield and wine quality (Magalh~aes
2008; Makra et al. 2009).
Air temperature is considered the most important factor in the overall growth and productivity of winegrapes
(Jones and Alves 2012). In effect, grapevine physiology
and fruit metabolism/composition are highly influenced
by the mean temperature along the growing season
(Coombe 1987). Even though this crop has a good adaptation to environmental stresses, enduring extremely low
temperatures in short time periods during winter
(Hidalgo 2002), negative temperatures during spring may
severely damage the developing buds and leaves/shoots
(Branas 1974). This crop is also very sensitive to late frost
and hail events (e.g., Spellman 1999). However, winter
chill is an important aspect in its growth development, as
cold promotes bud dormancy (Kliewer and Soleiman
1972), initiating carbohydrate reserves for the following
year (Bates et al. 2002; Field et al. 2009). In the same
way, a 10°C basal temperature is required for the vine to
break this dormancy and initiate its growing cycle (Amerine
and Winkler 1944; Winkler 1974). Extreme heat or heat
4
Cool
Intermediate
Warm
Hot
Average Growing Season Temperature (NH Apr–Oct; SH Oct–Apr)
13 – 15ºC
17 – 19ºC
19 – 24ºC
15 – 17ºC
Muller-Thurgau
Pinot Gris
Gewurztraminer
Riesling
Pinot Noir
Chardonay
Sauvignon Blanc
Semillon
Cabernet Franc
Tempranillo
Dolcetto
Merlot
Malbec
Viognier
Syrah
Table grapes
Cabernet Sauvignon
Sangiovese
Grenache
Carignane
Zinfandel
Nebbiolo
Raisins
Length of rectangle indicates the estimated span of ripening for that varietal
Figure 4. Maturity groupings based on the growing-season mean
temperature, for a set of grapevine varieties. Adapted from Jones
(2006).
weaves may also permanently affect vine physiology and
yield attributes (Kliewer 1977; Mullins et al. 1992),
although some varieties may be more tolerant than others
ª 2013 The Authors. John Wiley & Sons and the Association of Applied Biologists
H. Fraga et al.
(Schaffer and Andersen 1994; Moutinho-Pereira et al.
2007). Grapevines growing under severe heat stress
experience a significant decline in productivity, due to
stomatal and mesophyll limitations in photosynthesis
(Moutinho-Pereira et al. 2004), as well as injures under
other physiological processes (Berry and Bjorkman 1980).
Some studies argue that cool night temperatures in the
period preceding the harvest (maturation/ripening), combined with high diurnal temperatures, stimulate the synthesis of anthocyanins and other phenolic compounds,
being thus beneficial for high-quality wines (Kliewer and
Torres 1972; Mori et al. 2005).
Annual precipitation and its seasonality are also critical
factors influencing viticulture, as water stress can lead to
a wide range of effects, yet largely dependent on the stage
of development (Austin and Bondari 1988). For instance,
proper soil moisture during budburst and shoot/
inflorescence development is of foremost importance for
vine growth development (Hardie and Martin 2000;
Paranychianakis et al. 2004). Water stress at this stage
may also cause small shoot growth, poor flower cluster
and berry set development (Hardie and Considine 1976).
On the contrary, excessive humidity during these early
stages overstimulates the vegetative growth, which leads
to denser canopies and a higher likelihood of disease
problems in leaves and in inflorescences. From flowering
to berry ripening, severe water stress results in low leaf
area, limiting photosynthesis, flower abortion, and cluster
abscission (During 1986). During this development stage,
moderately dry and stable atmospheric conditions are
considered favorable for high-quality wines (Jones and
Davis 2000; Nemani et al. 2001; Ramos et al. 2008).
Furthermore, slower leaf canopy development may lead to
higher transpiration efficiency (Porter and Semenov
2005). During ripening, excessive humidity is unfavorable
to maturation (Tonietto 1999), due to the promotion of
sugar dilution (Reynolds and Naylor 1994). On the contrary, moderate dryness, at this stage, seems to enhance
quality (Storchi et al. 2005).
Solar radiation is also a key factor affecting viticulture.
Adequate radiant energy is required, especially during ripening (Manica and Pommer 2006). During maturation,
sugar and phenolic contents are favored by the occurrence of sunny days (Riou et al. 1994). Regions with less
sunlight tend to surmount this limitation by adjusting
training systems, optimizing solar exposure and canopy
density. With more exposed leaves and grape clusters, stomatal conductance and photosynthesis are favored, but at
the same time increasing water demands (Archer and
Strauss 1990) and boosting other problems, namely sunburns in leaves and clusters. In opposition, less exposed
grape clusters result in lower berry temperatures, but at
the expense of reducing sugar and anthocyanin concen-
ª 2013 The Authors. John Wiley & Sons and the Association of Applied Biologists
Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture
trations (Sparks and Larsen 1966; Smart et al. 1985).
High canopy density can also reduce bud fertility
(Morgan et al. 1985), which is important for the subsequent years.
To better characterize the relationship between winegrapes and climate, several bioclimatic indices have been
developed. Using the growing degree sums for a basal
temperature of 10°C (degree days), Amerine and Winkler
(1944) developed one of the earliest indices (Winkler
Index). Still using this concept, the Huglin Index (Huglin
1978) was developed to also account for maximum temperatures during the growing season and include a radiation component. The Cool Night Index (Tonietto 1999;
Tonietto and Carbonneau 2004), which accounts for minimum temperatures preceding the harvest, is also often
used as a bioclimatic index. The Dryness Index (Riou
et al. 1994; Tonietto and Carbonneau 2004) was developed to estimate potential soil water availability. More
recently, Malheiro et al. (2010) developed a composite
index based on the limiting thresholds of three bioclimatic indices, allowing a more comprehensive viticultural zoning and the assessment of the suitability of a
given region to grapevine growth and wine production.
In most Mediterranean-like climatic regions, vineyards
are subject to high radiation levels interacting with high
temperatures and strong atmospheric and soil water deficits, which largely constrain grapevine productivity.
Frequently, leaves display permanent photoinhibition and
chlorosis, followed by necrosis, exposing the grape clusters, thus leading to low intrinsic water-use efficiency
(WUE; Moutinho-Pereira et al. 2004). Hence, low vigor
tends to be associated with reduced berry weight, sugar
content, and yield. Other berry organoleptic properties
such as color, flavor, and aroma components are inhibited by excessive solar radiance and severe dryness too.
This results in unbalanced wines, with high alcoholic
content and excessively low acidity (Jones 2004). In this
context, the Mediterranean viticulture and winemaking
may be significantly challenged by climate change (Jones
2006).
Climate Change Projections in
Agriculture
Climate change is an inevitable challenge that society will
have to cope with in the upcoming decades. During the
20th century, most of Europe endured changes in numerous climatic factors with great regional heterogeneity
(International Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] 2007).
Significant changes in temperatures were found during
the 20th century (Santos and Leite 2009), including
increases of 2.3–5.3°C in northern Europe and 2.2–5.1°C
in southern Europe (Christensen et al. 2007). Moreover,
5
Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture
H. Fraga et al.
decreases/increases in the annual precipitations over
southern/northern Europe (Christensen et al. 2007) are
also expected under higher anthropogenic greenhouse gas
(GHG) forcing in the future. These changes were shown
to occur not only in the normal values but also in the
rate of occurrence of extremes (Hanson et al. 2007). In
fact, changes in the frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes, in Europe, were related to certain atmospheric features, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO; Santos and Corte-Real 2006).
The first climate theories considered climate as the
mean state of the weather conditions over a long period
(Hann 1883). The modern perspective of climatic analysis
may be perceived as a system-analytic approach (Peixoto
and Oort 1992; von Storch and Fl€
oser 1999), where climate dynamics is a result of the combined interactions
among the different components of the global climate system (atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere,
and lithosphere). Due to the complexity and high nonlinearity of the climate system (Fig. 5A), the isolation of
the forcing factors underlying climate variability is indeed
a rather difficult task. In fact, the differentiation of the
human-induced climate change from the natural climate
change is only possible when the physical processes in the
climate system are fully understood. These processes can
be described by balance equations, and their numerical
integration allows climate simulation.
The study of climate change impacts on environmental
systems usually employs data from atmospheric models.
Due to different aspects of climate variability in paleontological and present-day conditions, different approaches
of climate modeling are carried out, induced by varying
CO2 concentrations. The IPCC developed different climate projections, referring to different future scenarios of
divergent CO2-emission pathways (Fig. 5B), such as the
A2, A1B, and B1 (Nakicenovic et al. 2000). These scenarios aim at objectively representing likely pathways of
human development until the end of the 21st century,
covering a feasible level of uncertainty (Nakicenovic et al.
2000). The IPCC 4th Assessment Report (4AR) provides
evidence on the general agreement among observations
from different measurement techniques, all documenting
a clear upward trend in the global mean surface temperature in recent decades (Trenberth et al. 2007). Besides the
significant changes detected in the means, the frequencies
of occurrence and strength of some extremes have also
increased, including precipitation (droughts and heavy
rain events) and temperature (heat waves, hot days/
nights) extremes (Trenberth et al. 2007; Andrade et al.
2012). Furthermore, the trends observed in the recent
past can only be reproduced by climate modeling when
anthropogenic forcing is taken into account (Hegerl et al.
2007).
For future decades, ensemble projections reveal that
global climate change tends to be mostly consistent with
the trends already recorded during the 20th century,
although their magnitude is highly dependent on the
emission scenario (Meehl et al. 2007). The global mean
surface temperature is expected to increase at about 0.2°C
per decade, reaching values between 1°C and 6°C at the
end of the 21st century for the full range of special report
on emissions scenarios (SRES; Fig. 5B). These values
6
ª 2013 The Authors. John Wiley & Sons and the Association of Applied Biologists
(A)
(B)
Figure 5. (A) Schematic view of the components of the climate
system, their processes, and interactions. (B) Multimodel averages and
assessed ranges for surface warming. Solid lines are multimodel
global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980–1999) for the
scenarios A2, A1B, and B1, shown as continuations of the 20thcentury simulations. Shading denotes the 1 standard deviation
range of individual model annual averages. The orange line is for the
experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000
values. The gray bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line
within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six special
report on emissions marker scenarios. The assessment of the best
estimate and likely ranges in the gray bars includes the atmosphereocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs) in the left part
of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent
models and observational constraints. (A) Adapted from Le Treut
et al. (2007), (B) Adapted from (IPCC 2007).
H. Fraga et al.
Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture
imply remarkably different impacts on the Earth’s system,
as the environmental and socioeconomic systems present
nonlinear responses to a certain change in temperature,
besides their limited ability to adapt to new external conditions. Moreover, the regional impacts may be stronger/
weaker than the global mean signal, which highlights the
need for regional assessment studies using regional
dynamical downscaling (Christensen et al. 2007). Finally,
it is worth mentioning that all these projections still
encompass high uncertainties (Fraga et al. 2013), not only
due to model limitations and to emission scenario uncertainties, but also due to uncertainties inherent to the climate-carbon cycle (Denman et al. 2007; Meehl et al.
2007). A new generation of emission scenarios (Moss
et al. 2010) will enable the analysis of the interactions
within this cycle in more detail.
The projected changes in atmospheric parameters are
of key importance for agricultural practices. Regarding
perennial crops (such as vineyards), under future climate
change, Lobell et al. (2006) state that actual yield changes
will reflect the combined influence of climatic factors and
the potentially positive effects of management, technology, and increased atmospheric CO2 contents. For estimating impacts of climate on agricultural systems it is
needed, in addition to the first-order impact of changed
climate parameters on physiological and yield indicators,
knowledge about the second-order effect of CO2 influence
on primary plant production. Furthermore, understanding the interactions of elevated CO2 concentrations with
changes in climatic parameters, including extremes, soil
water availability, pests, diseases, and physiological interactions remain a key aspect for assessing climate change
impacts on agriculture (Tubiello and Fischer 2007).
Although a global assessment of climate change impacts
on agriculture highlight negative impacts due to more frequent extreme weather events (Porter and Semenov
2005), increased irrigation demands (Doll 2002), and
increased risk of pests and diseases (Alig et al. 2002), this
should not occur evenly throughout the European continent. Olesen and Bindi (2002) stated two different climate
change consequences for European agriculture. For northern Europe, positive effects can be expected from the
introduction of new crop species/varieties, higher crop
production, and new suitable agricultural areas, but also
experiencing disadvantages through the greater need for
plant protection and increased risk of nutrient leaching.
In southern Europe, on the other hand, water scarcity
and extreme climate conditions may cause lower yields,
higher yield variability, and a reduction in suitable areas
for traditional crops. Moreover, Moriondo and Bindi
(2007) found that the Mediterranean crops may have earlier development stages and may experience a reduction
in the length of growing season under future climates.
Climate change can potentially influence vine yield and
quality (Kenny and Harrison 1992; Jones 2005). Temperature trends of the recent past, focusing on viticultural
regions, show that the growing-season mean temperatures
have increased globally by about 1.3°C in 1950–1999 and
by 1.7°C from 1950 to 2004 in Europe (Jones et al.
2005a,b). For some European viticultural regions, in Italy,
Germany, and France, studies already reported shortenings of the growing season and earlier phenological events
(Chuine et al. 2004; Jones et al. 2005a; Dalla Marta et al.
2010; Bock et al. 2011; Daux et al. 2011). Similar changes
were also reported in some Australian viticultural regions
(Webb et al. 2011; Sadras and Petrie 2011). Furthermore,
advances in the phenological events resulting in ripening
during a warmer period can have negative impacts on
wine quality (Webb et al. 2008). Vrsic and Vodovnik
(2012) showed that higher temperatures during the growing season in North East Slovenia promoted a significant
decrease in the total acidity content of early-ripening
varieties.
Climate change projections for the 21st century are
expected to have important impacts on viticulture, as
changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns
(Meehl et al. 2007) may significantly modify the current
viticultural zoning in Europe (Malheiro et al. 2010).
Recent climate change studies by Fraga et al. (2012) for
Portugal, Neumann and Matzarakis (2011) for Germany,
and Duchene and Schneider (2005) for Alsace, France,
hint at an increase in the growing-season temperature.
Santos et al. (2012a), using a multimodel ensemble for the
Douro Valley (Portugal), demonstrated that springtime
warming may lead to earlier budburst under a future warmer climate, which may affect wine quality. Additionally,
future projections for this same region, suggest higher
grapevine yields (Santos et al. 2011) and wine productions
(Gouveia et al. 2011), but also suggest increased risks of
pests and diseases. Orduna (2010) argues that winemaking
regions under extremely hot temperatures may lead to a
significant increase in the risk of organoleptic degradation
and wine spoilage. Under a future warmer climate, higher
temperatures may inhibit the formation of anthocyanin
(Buttrose et al. 1971), thus reducing grape color (Downey
et al. 2006) and increasing volatilization of aroma com-
ª 2013 The Authors. John Wiley & Sons and the Association of Applied Biologists
7
As such, the development of future climate projections
based on feasible future socioeconomic storylines is of
great value, as they provide objective information that
can be used in developing suitable adaptation/mitigation
managements to minimize climate change impacts on
environment and on human activities.
Climate Change Impacts on
Viticulture
Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture
H. Fraga et al.
pounds (Bureau et al. 2000). Future changes in minimum
temperatures during ripening in the Iberian Peninsula
were also reported (Fraga et al. 2012; Malheiro et al.
2012), suggesting a decrease in wine quality.
In the future scenarios, a decrease in the suitability of
the current winemaking regions in southern Europe
might also be expected (Jones et al. 2005b; Stock et al.
2005; Fraga et al. 2012). Southern European winegrapes
are also expected to face adverse conditions due to severe
dryness (Santos et al. 2003; Malheiro et al. 2010). In fact,
these regions may become excessively dry for high-quality
winemaking (Kenny and Harrison 1992), or even unsuitable for grapevine growth without sufficient irrigation
(Koundouras et al. 1999). Malheiro et al. (2010) stated
that regions like Alentejo, Andalucıa, Mancha, Sicily,
Puglia, and Campania will suffer from water deficits. Santos et al. (2012b) also showed increased summer dryness
in southern Europe. As an illustration, Alonso and O’Neill
(2011) highlighted the negative impacts of climate change
in the Spanish viticulture, which may result in increased
water demand due to irrigation. Camps and Ramos
(2012) found a decrease in winegrape yield for northeastern Spain that can be attributed to water deficits. Ruml
et al. (2012), in a study for Serbia, identified changes that
may require additional vineyard irrigation. In addition to
a lowering of wine quality, expected in the future for
some southern European winemaking regions, changes in
the interannual variability and extremes may increase the
irregularity of the yields (Schultz 2000; Jones et al.
2005a), with detrimental effects on the whole winemaking
sector.
In contrast to southern Europe, future warmer climates
may be beneficial for many regions in central and western
Europe, such as Alsace, Champagne, Bordeaux, Bourgogne, Loire Valley, Mosel, and Rheingau (Stock et al. 2005;
Malheiro et al. 2010; Neethling et al. 2012). Despite the
projected increases in precipitation, which can be favorable to pests and diseases (e.g., downy mildew), the
warming will enable the growth of a wider range of varieties (Malheiro et al. 2010). As an example, Eitzinger et al.
(2009) project a doubling of the potential winegrapegrowing areas in Austria by the 2050s. Hungarian southern
wine regions are also expected to expand according to
Gaal et al. (2012). Furthermore, the projected warming in
central and northern European regions (e.g., Mosel) will
result in prolonged frost-free periods and growing seasons
(Bertin 2009), which will favor wine quality (Ashenfelter
and Storchmann 2010).
The enhanced concentrations of CO2 in the future,
per se, are expected to have positive impacts on the
grapevine development cycle and yield attributes (Bindi
et al. 1996; Goncalves et al. 2009; Moutinho-Pereira
et al. 2009). Higher CO2 will promote a decrease in
plant transpiration, which will tend to overcompensate
for the increased soil evaporation (Rabbinge et al. 1993),
resulting in a reduced evapotranspiration in the future
climate (Wramneby et al. 2010). This indirect effect of
CO2 increase will be combined with the direct effect of
an increase in carbon compound accumulation (Drake
et al. 1997), which may thus provide a positive response
to climate change.
8
ª 2013 The Authors. John Wiley & Sons and the Association of Applied Biologists
Adaptation and Mitigation Measures
While mitigation refers to measures that require human
intervention, usually over long temporal periods, in
reducing the sources or enhancing the sinks of GHG
(IPCC 2001), adaptation can be either a human or a
natural response to the actual or expected climate change
effects (IPCC 2001). Although the complex interrelationship between adaptation and mitigation measures
are noteworthy, mitigation measures are mainly determined by international agreements and national public
policies, while adaptation measures involve local entities
and private actions (Klein et al. 2007).
Mitigation measures are crucial, as long-term stabilization of CO2 concentrations may reduce damage to yield
and quality (Easterling et al. 2007). Fischer et al. (2007)
found that mitigation strategies, resulting in lower GHG
concentrations, may reduce agricultural water requirements by about 40% when compared with unmitigated
climate. As for agricultural mitigation measures, tillage
systems are of key importance, as they may slightly compensate for GHG emissions (Ugalde et al. 2007). No-till
systems and minimum tillage (MIT) are considered the
best for this purpose, as no disturbance of the soil surface
promotes carbon retention/sequestration (Kroodsma and
Field 2006). In regions with very steep slope (e.g., Douro
Valley), no-till systems may also significantly contribute
to reduce soil erosion.
Short-term adaptation measures may be considered as
the first protection strategy against climate change and
should be focused at specific threats, aiming at optimizing
production. These measures mostly imply changes in
management practices (e.g., irrigation, sunscreens for leaf
protection), while changes in the enological practices,
through technological advances (Lobell et al. 2006), may
also have positive effects on wine quality. Long-term
adaptation measures mainly include varietal and landallocation changes, as some regions may become excessively warm and dry, while others consistently show high
winemaking suitability (Malheiro et al. 2010). Changes to
cooler sites, to higher altitudes, or coastal areas may
also prove beneficial for future vineyards (changes in the
vineyard microclimatic and mesoclimatic conditions).
These regions may, however, struggle against an increas-
H. Fraga et al.
ing risk of pests and diseases, requiring more intense
plant protection. In this case, biological control agents
should be preferably used, thus reducing the environmental impacts (Butt and Copping 2000).
Adequate and timely planning of the adaptation measures need to be adopted by the winemaking sector. The
readiness to implement adaptation measures is highly correlated with the degree of changes planned, independent
of climate change (Battaglini et al. 2009). A deeper insight
into some adaptation measures is discussed in the subsections that follow.
Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture
concluding that the 1103P is better for winegrape growth
under semiarid conditions, while S04 is preferable where
no water limitation exists. As such, accessing the more
adapted rootstock for each case can improve WUE, thus
improving yield and quality.
Irrigation management
The optimum climate for a given variety produces consistent yields, balanced fruit composition, and acceptable vintage variation (Jones 2006). A key factor in adapting to
climate change may include the growing of varieties with
different thermal requirements and higher summer stress
resistance. Currently, despite the large number (thousands)
of existing varieties, the global wine market is dominated
by only a few of them (e.g., Airen, Cabernet-Sauvignon,
Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot Noir, Tempranillo, Touriga
Nacional, Riesling), owing to current trading practices
(This et al. 2006).
In the future, some northern European regions may
benefit from a wide range of varieties for winegrape
growth (Stock et al. 2005), while southern Europe will
need to adapt to varieties more suitable to warmer and
dryer climates. Jones (2006) gives clues to some varieties
more adapted to warmer climates, such as Cabernet
Franc, Cabernet-Sauvignon, Malbec, Merlot, Syrah, and
Tempranillo (Fig. 4). White et al. (2006) proposes that
grapevine breeding programs should now focus on the
development of heat-resistant varieties. Still with respect
to this issue, Duchene et al. (2012) developed a framework for genetic breeding of new varieties more adapted
to future climatic conditions while maintaining some key
aspects of existing varieties. Furthermore, owing to the
large number of existing grapevine varieties, the maintenance of the natural biodiversity is essential for the
better adaptation to climate change (Tello et al. 2012).
Rootstock is another factor that may affect yield, quality, and other vine physiological parameters (Hedberg
et al. 1986; Pavlousek 2011). Its effects under warm and
dry climates should be taken into account, as rootstocks
show complex interaction with soil water availability
(Romero et al. 2006). Several studies have been undertaken to assess rootstock effects under different water
conditions (Ozden et al. 2010; Pavlousek 2011; Harbertson
and Keller 2012). As an example, Koundouras et al.
(2008) used the Cabernet-Sauvignon variety in Greece
and compared the effect of two different rootstocks,
Regions under conditions of higher water scarcity will
need to improve grapevine WUE (Flexas et al. 2010), thus
lowering water usage for irrigation purposes (Chaves
et al. 2010). Deficit irrigation strategies (e.g., regulated
deficit irrigation – RDI; partial root drying – PRD; sustained deficit irrigation – SDI) can be used to improve
WUE, allowing an optimal grape maturity and wine
quality. Different deficit irrigation techniques are usually
achieved by assessing soil (water potential and moisture)
and physiological parameters (leaf or stem water
potential, relative transpiration using sap flow techniques,
trunk growth variations, canopy temperature, and chlorophyll fluorescence) as water status indicators (Pellegrino
et al. 2004; Cifre et al. 2005; Sousa et al. 2006; Centeno
et al. 2010). Romero et al. (2010), using RDI by applying
60% crop evapotranspiration (ETc.) water for irrigation
during the growing season, found significant increases
in WUE on Monastrell grapevines. Junquera et al. (2012)
found that irrigating at 45% of the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) shows the best results for CabernetSauvignon. Conversely, a recent study by Basile et al.
(2012) reported that RDI may also affect wine sensory
attributes.
Partial root drying is another deficit irrigation strategy that has been adapted for viticulture to improve
WUE (Chaves et al. 2007; Romero and Martinez-Cutillas 2012). In this system, half of the plant root system
is slowly dehydrating, whereas the other half is irrigated,
decreasing water usage by 50%. Using this technique,
Santos et al. (2005) reported no reduction in yield for
the Castel~ao grapevines. Improvements in quality were
also reported using this irrigation strategy on other
varieties, resulting from increased anthocyanin concentration (Poni et al. 2007; Bindon et al. 2008; Du et al.
2008).
Chalmers et al. (2010) implemented a SDI strategy by
applying a lower volume of water at each irrigation event.
These authors state that this may increase soil water tension by not replenishing the entire root zone. In this
study, wine anthocyanin and other phenolic compounds
(for Cabernet-Sauvignon and Shiraz) showed significant
increases using this irrigation strategy.
Along the previous lines, it can be stated that sustainable water management (together with available water)
may be a profitable economic strategy for the grape
ª 2013 The Authors. John Wiley & Sons and the Association of Applied Biologists
9
Varietal and rootstock decisions
Climate Change Impacts on European Viticulture
grower (Garcia et al. 2012), providing a compromise
solution between environmental costs and plant water
requirements, which is highly pertinent under increasingly
dryer and water-demanding southern European climates
(Bruinsma 2009).
Tillage treatments
Different tillage treatments can also affect yield and quality (Bahar and Yasasin 2010). These treatments may differ
in both the start and duration of the tillage process. In
the no-till or conventional tillage (CVT), natural vegetation is usually allowed to grow spontaneously. In a MIT
treatment, periodic tillage is applied from the fruit set to
veraison. In the conservative tillage (CST), some vegetation is always allowed to grow, although periodic tillage is
made from the beginning of the growing season to the
end of veraison. While most of these treatments have
been used to stimulate plant competition, aiming to
increase vine performance and wine quality (Bahar and
Yasasin 2010), they may be required to account for future
climate change too.
Monteiro and Lopes (2007) found that although
intensive soil tillage increases soil moisture during
spring, cover cropping increases upper-layer soil moisture from veraison to harvest, indicating lower soil evaporation caused by the cover cropping. Moreover, Xi
et al. (2010) reported that a cover crop increased total
phenols in berry and wine, thereby improving wine quality.
Judit et al. (2011), for the Tokaj region (Hungary),
reported that covering the soil with straw mulch had a
positive effect on the soil water content, while using a
cover crop implied higher water demand. Celette et al.
(2008) demonstrated that the use of cover cropping is
increasing throughout European vineyards except in the
Mediterranean regions, due to the possibility of competition for water resources. These authors stated that cover
crops can modify grapevine root systems in order to
explore other soil zones, increasing water intake. Also,
the use of a cover crop allows better wintertime soil
water renewal.
Vineyard microclimate
In order to account for the joint effect of increased temperature, water stress, and high solar radiation under
future climates, adjustments in the traditionally settled
training systems can also be applied by optimizing canopy management (Pieri and Gaudillere 2003). Row orientation should also be considered (if feasible), as it is
one of the main factors influencing solar radiation interception (Intrieri et al. 1998; Grifoni et al. 2008). The
use of shading nets, often used to protect agricultural
10
H. Fraga et al.
crops from excessive solar radiation, can be applied to
viticulture (Shahak et al. 2008). In fact, covering the
vines with a shading material can help reducing heat
stress at the cost of reduced vine biomass (Greer et al.
2011). Furthermore, the use of mineral, chemically inert
sunscreens for leaf protection against sunburns may
prove to be an important alternative (Pelaez et al. 2000;
Glenn et al. 2010).
Conclusions
Climate change is expected to bring new challenges to the
European viticultural sector (Malheiro et al. 2010).
Although grapevines have several survival strategies (e.g.,
deep root system, efficient stomatal control), viticulture is
strongly dependent on climate. Hence, the mounting evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation measures to be taken. A lowering
in the suitability of some important winemaking regions
was indeed reported (Hall and Jones 2009). Therefore,
appropriate measures need to be adopted by the viticultural sector to face climate change impacts, mainly by
developing suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies at
regional scales (Metzger et al. 2008). Winegrape growers
are becoming progressively more aware of this problem
(Battaglini et al. 2009), as strategic planning will provide
them a competitive advantage over competitors. Nevertheless, to effectively cope with the projected changes,
short- and long-term strategies deserve much greater
attention in future research (Metzger and Rounsevell
2011).
Even though the full extent of the contribution of the
adaptive strategies in reducing climate change impacts is
still unclear (Lobell et al. 2006), adaptation strategies to
climate change can be highly beneficial for the agricultural sector (Tubiello and Fischer 2007). As an illustration, Reidsma et al. (2010) concluded that adaptation
measures can largely reduce the impacts of climate
change and climate variability on crop yields. A selection
of alternative crop species, grapevine cultivars, rootstocks, and changes in the management practices are
among the measures already being taken by European
viticulturists to adapt to climate change (Olesen et al.
2011).
Acknowledgments
This study was carried out under the project: ClimVineSafe – Short-term climate change mitigation strategies for
Mediterranean vineyards (Fundacß~ao para a Ci^encia e
Tecnologia – FCT, contract PTDC/AGR-ALI/110 877/
2009). This work is supported by European Union
Funds (FEDER/COMPETE – Operational Competitiveness
ª 2013 The Authors. John Wiley & Sons and the Association of Applied Biologists
H. Fraga et al.
Programme) and by national funds (FCT – Portuguese
Foundation for Science and Technology) under the
project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022 692.
Conflict of Interest
None declared.
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