Download Climate Change and Security. Two Scenarios for the Indian

Climate Change and Security
Two Scenarios for the
Indian-Pacific Ocean Island States
2009
Climate Change and Security
Two Scenarios for the Indian-Pacific Ocean Island States
This report was prepared for the Directorate-General External Relations of the European
Commission
by Alexander Carius, Achim Maas and Janina Barkemeyer (Adelphi Research)
This report does not reflect the opinion of the European Commission
Version 1.0
2009
Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States
I
Executive Summary
The island states in the Pacific and Indian Oceans
dynamic, unpredictably changing and increasingly
are politically relatively stable compared to other
unclear demarcation of sea borders the potential for
regions. Few violent conflicts exist in the region. Yet,
international conflict may arise, especially in the
they are facing difficulties due to their small size;
absence of an adequate legal system to address
remoteness; limited resource base; dependence on
these
imports, few economic sectors, foreign aid and
decreasing habitability of islands may raise questions
remittances; and vulnerability to natural disasters.
of statehood as well.
Indeed, a single large disaster can destroy large
parts of an island’s economy.
issues.
Ultimately,
sea-level
rise
and
Ongoing regional activities on climate change have
Climate change is likely to worsen this situation by
reducing livelihood opportunities decreasing food
and water security; increasing the severity and
frequency
of
extreme
weather
events;
and
decreasing economic opportunities due to loss of
agriculture land and tourism. Sea-level rise worsened
by increasing storm surges and flood risks will lead to
inundation and erosion of coastal areas, where most
of the infrastructure and population are concentrated.
Long before any island might be submerged, climate
change may render islands uninhabitable. Thus,
climate change will be a critical threat to
satisfying basic human needs.
The Indian-Pacific Ocean Island States
This threat will erode island societies from within:
Land is often customarily owned, and the loss of land
so far been limited and only one initiative focuses
and associated spiritual sites has psychological and
primarily on the ultimate security- and conflict-related
cultural impacts. Coupled with loss of income and
implications
employment;
positions of island states vary in this regard, as will
migration
within
island
states;
of
climate
change.
Moreover,
the
emigration of qualified individuals; and stretched
the concrete impacts on each state.
capacities of governments to cope with the stresses,
Against the background of likely severe impacts of
this could lead to fragmentation and disintegration
climate change, it will be necessary to integrate
of island societies. In turn, this fragmentation could
climate concerns across all areas from the local
translate into crime and violent expression of conflict
to the regional. This requires improving the
where left unaddressed.
knowledge base and analytical tools; developing
Furthermore, climate change will continue to alter
conflict-sensitive
the maritime borders of island states, impacting
improving capacities for advanced planning; disaster
their territory. Increasingly, the region may become
risk
attractive
reduction;
approaches
and
managing
to
adaptation;
climate-induced
entities
exploiting
challenges. Finally, it is necessary to initiate and
and
fisheries).
drive forward the international debate on maritime
Concessions may be sold in exchange for much
questions as well as potentially climate-induced
needed resources if adaptation and recovery
statelessness.
resources
to
extra-regional
(deep-sea
mining
needs escalate across the region. However, with a
II
List of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...........................................................................................................................................I
1.
INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................................1
2.
POLITICS, SOCIETY, ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT ..............................................................................2
2.1.
ECONOMIC AND GEOGRAPHIC PROPERTIES ........................................................................................................2
2.2.
POLITICAL STABILITY AND CONFLICT POTENTIALS ................................................................................................4
3.
CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS AND IMPACTS ...............................................................................................5
4.
RISK ANALYSIS AND SCENARIOS ..............................................................................................................7
4.1
DISINTEGRATION: LAND LOSS AND SOCIO-CULTURAL DECLINE .............................................................................8
4.2
SEA-GRAB: CHALLENGING SOVEREIGNTY AND BORDERS .....................................................................................9
4.3
CONCLUSIONS ...............................................................................................................................................10
5.
RECOMMENDATIONS..................................................................................................................................11
REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................................13
List of Maps and Tables
Table 1: Population 2010 and 2050, Population below poverty line, GDP and HDI values for
selected island states
4
Map 1: EEZs in Oceania
3
Map 2: The potential risk to coral reefs from human-threat factors
6
Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States
List of Abbreviations
AR4
Fourth Assessment Report
AusAid
Australian Government Overseas Aid Program
CCIS
Climate Change and International Security
CROP
Council of Regional Organisations in the Pacific
EC
European Commission
EEZ
Exclusive Economic Zone
ENSO
El Niño Southern Oscillation
EU
European Union
FSM
Federated States of Micronesia
GCCA
Global Climate Change Alliance
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GEF
Global Environmental Fund
HDI
Human Development Index
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JICA
Japan International Cooperation Agency
NGO
Non-governmental organisation
NZAID
New Zealand’s International Aid and Development Agency
PNG
Papua New Guinea
PSIDS
Pacific Small Island Developing States
SLR
Sea-level rise
SPREP
South Pacific Regional Environmental Programme
UN
United Nations
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme
III
1
1. Introduction
Climate change is likely to be among the key
•
challenges for international security and stability
Section 4 outlines potential conflict constellations
and scenarios, how climate change may lead to
st
in the 21 century (EU 2008). The European Union
insecurity and instability. These constellations are
(EU) initiated the EU Process on Climate Change
plausible, yet hypothetical and are based on
and International Security (CCIS) in response to
literature review and expert assessment; more
climate threats. The process commenced with the
research is needed to improve validity.
Joint Paper by High-Representative Solana and
Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner in March 2008 (EU
•
have already begun to cope with the challenges
2008a). A progress report was submitted by the
European
Commission
(EC)
and
the
Section 5 outlines how different stakeholders
of climate change for security. The section
Council
concludes with recommendations to the EU.
Secretariat (SEC) to the General Affairs and External
Relations Council (GAERC) in December 2009.
Security is broadly defined in this study. Climate
Additionally, the United Nations (UN)
change is best viewed as a threat multiplier, which
As part of EU process, a synopsis of findings of
regional studies on climate change and security was
produced (Maas/Tänzler 2009). Within the scope of
the study, four regions were identified, which have
been less researched so far. Based on the synopsis,
four additional studies were commissioned by the
EC. The purpose of the studies is (1) to provide an
overview to the region and likely climate change
impacts; (2) outline potential security implications of
climate change; and (3) to develop recommendations
for the EU’s foreign, security and development policy.
may create or exacerbate insecurities and tensions
from the individual to the international level (EU
2008a). There are a variety of studies categorising
and analysing the different channels, pathways and
linkages between climate change and insecurity.1 A
key difficulty is the use of the term ‘security’:
Depending on its context and use, it may denote
‘hard’ (political/military conflicts) or ‘soft’ (access to
food and water) issues. Climate change may impact
‘hard’ and ‘soft’ dimensions of security. Also, impacts
on one dimension, such as food insecurity, may also
have impacts on the other dimension, such as via
This study is a scenario covering the ‘Indian-
food riots (cf. Carius et al. 2008). Thus, ‘security’ is
Pacific Ocean Island States’ region. The term is
broadly defined within the scope of the studies below.
used to describe the region stretching from the
In particular, we will focus on the following aspects:
Maldives in the West to the Pacific Small Island
Developing States (PSIDS) in the Pacific region. The
•
from the local to the international level.
major relevant impacts of climate change are
expected to be on small island states.
•
Leading to state fragility, radicalisation and
degrading state capacities to implement policies.
The study focuses on the region as a whole;
individual countries and sub-national regions will be
Contributing to violent conflict and disputes
•
Degrading human security and livelihoods via
examined where appropriate. A common structure
increased risks of disasters, food insecurity,
was defined for all regional studies. It is as follows:
energy poverty and the like.
•
•
Section 1 provides an executive summary on
Regarding climate change impacts, there is
major findings and recommendations.
emerging consensus that climate change impacts will
Section 2 provides a regional overview to the
region. It will briefly discuss issues of demography
and migration, key economic challenges, as well
as outline main lines of political and social
instability and conflicts in the region.
•
Section 3 summarises the key impacts of climate
change on the region.
be far more drastic than assessed in the 4th
Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For instance, sealevel rise (SLR) is likely to be twice as high as
estimated by the IPCC (Richardson et al. 2009). Also,
1
For a more in-depth discussion on interlinkages
between climate change and different definitions of
security, see Carius et al. 2008, WBGU 2007, Brown
2009, Smith/Vivikanda 2009, EU 2008.
Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States
2
limiting global warming to 2°C, as intended by the EU
workshops held in Bangkok (Thailand) on September
and many other states, is already no longer possible:
3; Suva (Fiji) on September 10; Quito (Ecuador) on
It would require emission cuts within the next decade
November 4; and Beirut (Lebanon) on November 18.
unlikely to be achieved (Fetzek 2009: 2). Instead,
38 working days have been allocated for each
global
study
warming
of
4°C
(with
strong
regional
including
research,
travel,
workshop
variations) by end of the century is currently
facilitation and report writing. Due to regional
becoming a more likely scenario (Richardson et al.
specificities, the studies slightly vary with regard to
2009; Allison et al. 2009). However, a strong
their structure and approach.
uncertainty remains when and how concrete impacts
of climate change will manifest. Thus, the studies will
focus
on
the
general
climate
trends
already
observable within the regions. They will span the
period from the present day to 2050 as social,
economic and environmental trend estimates are
comparatively
compared
accurate
with
for
this
time
period,
2050-2100
(cf.
Lee
2009).
Methodologically, the studies are based on deskbased research, interviews with experts and technical
The studies do not aim to be comprehensive.
Analysing potential future developments is always
speculative to some degree. The scenarios are thus
assumptions
about
likely
relationships
between
climate change trends and the current regional
context. Hence, this study provides an overview to
key emerging issues related to climate change and
security. More research will be needed to identify
concrete national and sub-national hot spots and
develop tailored recommendations.
2. Politics, Society, Economy and Environment
Along with a high degree of remoteness, particular small island states face a limited resource base. This has
entailed poor infrastructure and development pressures on the marine environment and on natural ecosystems,
mainly in coastal zones. Furthermore, the islands’ economies are characterised by dependence on imports,
international trade, foreign aid and remittances from populations working abroad.
In the Indian and Pacific Oceans, most island states are politically stable. However, several have gone
through periods of political instability and violent conflicts in the past decade. Causes of conflict have been
related to land as well as ethnic frictions. Already, issues linked to internal relocation and to external migration are
discussed as possible future catalysts for conflict.
2.1.
Economic and Geographic Properties
The small island states in the Pacific and Indian
Oceans are among the smallest and remotest
countries in the world. They are furthermore
dispersed over a wide range, with territories such as
the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) scattered
low-lying atoll countries Kiribati, the Republic of the
Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu. Atoll and reef countries
do not reach more than a few metres above current
sea-levels.
In
all
countries,
population
and
economic activity is concentrated in coastal
areas.
over a length of 2,900 kilometres. Half of the island
Infrastructure remains weak. Often, houses and
states in the Pacific have a territory smaller than
roads are poorly built and cannot withstand floods
1,000 square kilometres and a population of less than
and storms. Underdeveloped medical capacities are
one million (Nauru 2009). However, they have
incapable of providing sufficient health care (Nauru
considerable marine resources: The Pacific small
2009). The remoteness of the islands also results in
island states combine to around the same land mass
higher
as Spain (cf. FAO 2008), yet their exclusive
communications.
economic zones (EEZ) are, with 20 million square
kilometres, about four times the size of the EU
(Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat 2009, see Map 1).
costs
for
energy,
transportation,
and
The distinct physical and geographic characteristics
of small islands create specific challenges and
vulnerabilities. The central challenge revolves around
There exist huge physical differences, ranging from
their limited resource base. Apart from Papua New
high land geography at the main island of Fiji to the
Guinea (PNG), Sri Lanka, Solomon Islands and Fiji,
3
small island states are confronted with a limited
the abandonment of mining efforts. There was also
landmass coupled with a steadily growing population
doubt
(Booth 2006). High population density, economic
ecosystems within the EEZ of the country issuing
mining permits.2
activities and resulting resource demands exact
development pressures on natural ecosystems.
Especially forests and their biodiversity – which are
an important component of the islands’ natural capital
– are threatened by this development (EU 2006).
Poor farming practices, which create soil run-off, as
well as effluent discharge from hotels, are rapidly
degrading coastal zones. This affects fisheries and
tourism alike.
whether
impacts
could
be
limited
to
The island states are diverse in their human and
economic development. The range of Gross
Domestic Products (GDP) per capita and the
respective indexes of Human Development (HDI) are
shown in Table 5. Only Seychelles has attained a
high level of human development. On the other hand,
PNG finds itself on the lower end of merely medium
development. Population growth rates also vary
Due to their small size, the islands are faced with
disproportionately
expensive
across the island states.
public
administration as well as limited ability
to reap the benefits of economies of
scale
(UNDESA
2007).
Islanders
strongly rely on subsistence farming
and
fishing.
manufacturing
Agriculture,
and
sea-related
tourism, and fishing are the islands’
main industries. Some of the islands
also sell the fishing rights of their EEZ
to other countries, and offer fish
registrations under their flag. Yet, food
security is eroded due to persistent
over-harvesting
and
illegal
fishing
(Michel 2008).
Aside from fishing rights, a relevant
future
area
stemming
for
from
economic
EEZs
is
activity
deep-sea
Map 1: EEZs in Oceania. Source: Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat
mining. Within the distance of 200
nautical miles it is the responsibility of individual
The island states are faced with a number of
nations
dependency
to
issue
mining
licenses
and
define
factors.
They
are
excessively
environmental safeguards. Currently, however, there
dependent on international trade, tend to rely on a
is no legal framework in the Pacific region to guide
limited number of external markets and a narrower
policy surrounding tax and revenue. A Canadian
range of commodities. They are highly sensitive to
based company was granted offshore mineral and
external
exploration licenses by the PNG government in 1997
exception of fish, the PSIDS are net importers of
and has since then been exploring the seafloor of
food. It is a worrying trend that food is increasingly
PNG territorial waters for gold, copper, zinc, silver
serviced by imports throughout the Pacific, and some
and other sources. Its worldwide first full-scale
islands suffered under the global food crisis 2008
deepwater project is scheduled to commence in 2010
(FAO 2008). Energy-wise, most island states depend
and will extract resources, which lie in 1,600 meters
heavily on fossil fuels (UNFCCC 2005). Foreign aid
of water. Further exploration work was completed in
and remittances from populations working abroad are
other EEZs as well. Yet, concerns over mining
a major contribution to island economies. However,
shocks,
not
least
because,
with
the
proposals are escalating across the Pacific region.
Environmental risks were judged to be so large and
2 For more information on deep-sea mining see Shaffner
unpredictable that a number of studies recommended
2008; Schofield/Arsana 2008; Halfar/Fujita 2007; and
Bräuninger/König 2000.
Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States
4
the global economic downturn has had a negative
curtail tourism as well as other important economic
effect on remittance inflows and has also started to
sectors (Asian Development Bank 2009).
election riots in 2006 further erased years of
2.2.
development.
Political Stability and Conflict
Potentials
•
The secessionist war on the island of Bougainville
was
While many island countries are comparatively
the
result
of
long
lasting
feeling
of
suppression of local communities by the PNG
peaceful and stable, several experienced political
government. Tensions catalysed over a mine that
instability and violent conflict in the past decade.
caused substantial environmental damage. The
They include among others Sri Lanka, PNG, Fiji and
Bougainville people felt that their resources were
Solomon Islands. Many conflicts were related to land
being exploited almost entirely for the benefit of
issues and ethnic frictions. However, the scale and
others. Nine years of guerrilla warfare followed,
intensity of conflicts and the level of instability vary
across the regions (Hassall 2005; Wilson 2008).
up to 10% of the population was killed and a
•
ended in 1997 (UNDP 2008). Until today, PNG
further 60,000 people displaced until the war
In Fiji, ethnic and political tensions, culminating in
a number of coups d’état and civilian putsches
and Solomon Islands face important problems of
between 1987 and 2006 have been a source of
governance and corruption, which are linked to
instability and political isolation (Robertson 2005).
issues of nation building (EU 2006). Individual
The question of land has featured as one among
allegiance is often given to clans or other identity
several contributing factors in this series of crises.
•
groups than to the state.
Identity, ethnicity and group allegiances, coupled
•
with land issues, lay at the basis of the civil
through a long and bitter civil war arising out of
conflict in the Solomon Islands, where fighting
ethnic
broke out in 1998. A number of factors such as
of
land,
rapid
tensions
and
land-related
grievances
between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil
illegal squatting and use of customary lands, the
commercialisation
For more than 25 years, Sri Lanka had gone
minority in the northeast (cf. ICG 2008). In May
population
2009, the conflict appeared to be at an end, when
growth and land pressure as well as poor
government forces eliminated the last area
management of urban growth further aggravated
controlled by Tamil Tiger rebels. However, gross
the situation (UNDP 2007). The conflict reduced
violations of human rights continue.
the country’s per capita GDP by a third, and post-
Country
Population
2010
(thousands)
Population
2050
(thousands)
Population
below
poverty line
(%)
Total GDP
2007 (US $
billions)
GDP per
capita 2007
(US $)
HDI rank
2007
Comoros
691
1,226
60.0
0.4
714
139
Fiji
854
910
25.5
3.4
4,113
108
Maldives
314
455
21.0
1.1
3,456
95
Mauritius
1,297
1,426
8.0
6.8
5,383
81
PNG
6,888
12,871
37.0
6.3
990
148
Samoa
179
192
no data
0.5
2,894
94
Seychelles
85
97
no data
0.7
8,560
57
Solomon Islands
536
1,007
no data
0.4
784
135
Sri Lanka
20,410
21,705
22.0
32.3
1,616
102
Vanuatu
246
482
no data
0.5
2,001
126
Table 1: Selected Economic and Demographic Data. Sources: UNDP 09, UN Population Division 2009, CIA World
Factbook 2009. Population data is for medium variants.
5
Aside from the above mentioned events, the Pacific
still have far to go in terms of empowerment (UNDP
and Indian Ocean region is not characterised by
2008).
grave human rights problems and the vast majority of
the island countries are fully-fledged democracies.
Tonga, which is an almost absolute monarchy,
constitutes an exception that suffers from democratic
deficit. However, aligning traditional and modern
governance structures remains not without friction.
There are also serious issues related to gender. For
example, widespread sexual and gender-based
violence constitute important problems, and women
Internal relocations related to sea-level rise were
reported for FSM, PNG, Tuvalu and the Solomon
Islands (Nauru Representative 2009). Because there
is no legal framework regulating internal migration,
however, and due to the customary status of land,
emigration has become a more viable option. Still, it
is evident that emigration so far has been prompted
more by environmental uncertainties and economic
motivations rather than by immediate climate-related
realities (UN University et al. 2009).
3. Climate Change Trends and Impacts
Climate change will lead to sea-level and sea-surface temperature rise and the related inundation and
erosion of coastal areas as well as salt deposits in the soil and contaminants in the groundwater supply.
Weather patterns will change and extreme weather events will increase in frequency and intensity. Warming
oceans will lead to the destruction of coral reefs.
These climate change trends present a number of threats to the region. Food and water security will very likely
cave in and human health and well-being will be affected in adverse ways. Today, extreme weather events
already often exceed the capacities of island states and result in humanitarian crises; in the future the situation
will worsen.
Tourism and fishing as key economic sectors may be severely reduced or collapse altogether, increasing
dependency on foreign aid, remittances and related transfers. The dependency of island states on global markets
also makes them vulnerable to adverse global developments, such as climate-induced global reduction of food
production. Combined with potentially shrinking sources of income, islands states’ financial capacities may
contract further. This will negatively impact options for adaptation.
The long-term threat of total submergence exists, but is unlikely to materialise for whole countries until 2050. Long
before, climate change impacts will make these islands less habitable, making relocation to less impacted parts of
the islands necessary. Thus, degrading livelihood opportunities will be among the greatest challenges for the
upcoming decades for all island countries in the region.
characteristics,
which puts islands’ territorial integrity at risk. Each
remoteness and poor infrastructure makes small
centimetre of SLR equates to the loss of maritime
island states inherently vulnerable to the impacts of
territory, with several centimetres easily leading to
climate change. The concrete amount is still largely
thousands of square kilometres lost. Beyond this,
unknown making adaptation planning and risk
SLR combined with increasing air temperatures has a
management a challenge. Yet, most Pacific island
number of critical implications, in particular for water
countries have already experienced impacts in the
security (Mimura 2007). For islands, securing
form of climatic extremes: droughts related to the El
adequate freshwater supplies for drinking, sanitation,
Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cyclone-related
and agriculture is a constant challenge made even
floods, and eroding coastlines (Kinnas 2009). In
more difficult by the adverse impacts of climate
general, climate change trends are likely to be
change:
The
combination
of
physical
characterised as follows:
•
First, SLR will lead to inundation and soil
The most fundamental effects of climate change stem
erosion of coastal areas. Important coastal
from sea-level and sea-surface temperature rise,
resources,
especially
mangrove
forests,
will
Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States
•
substantially decrease (Nauru Representative
ruined. The sole hospital and many of the scenic
2009).
coastal caves and extensive areas of reef, the
Second,
rising
sea-levels
are
leaving
salt
deposits in the soil and contaminants in the
groundwater supply. The groundwater of atoll
islands is even more affected because they are
permeable and prone to flooding from within.
•
6
island’s main tourism attractions, were destroyed.
Cyclone Heta is estimated to have caused economic
damage equalling several hundred years of exports.
With all economic sectors affected, the island has
become especially dependent on external support.
(UNFCCC 2005; FAO 2008). In general, natural
Third, higher air temperatures lead to reduced
disasters are followed by a decline in tourism, which
water availability due to higher rates of water
adds further economic pressure on top of the steep
evaporation, reduced soil moisture and decreased
costs to repair damage caused by storms and
rate of groundwater recharge.
increasing insurance prices.
Map 2: The potential risk to coral reefs from human-threat factors. Low risk (blue), medium risk (yellow) and high risk
(red). Source: Mimura et al. 2007.
Consequences of rising sea-levels and temperatures
also include changing weather patterns. The region
is likely to experience increased frequency and
severity of extreme events such as heat waves,
exceptional rainfall events, summer droughts, tropical
cyclones, and storm surges. Also, an increase of
weeds, pests and diseases is possible. Shifts in
rainfall patterns as well as more frequent and more
intense periods of drought can cause soil degradation
and lead to the rapid depletion of an island's surface
and groundwater resources (Mimura 2007). The
islands have limited capacities to counteract extreme
weather events, let alone humanitarian disasters, if
they escalate in scale.
Warmer sea-surface temperatures lead to coral
bleaching, while the absorption of CO2 makes
oceans more acidic. Bleaching, altered temperature,
ocean acidification and changing rainfall pose serious
food security risks to islands that rely on agriculture
and fisheries as their main food sources. The
destruction of reefs causes sea water to infiltrate
farmland, harming crops. Near-shore fishing as the
other major contributor to food security and one of
the principal resources for economic development
could be seriously hampered, as well.3 Experts have
predicted that by mid-century, near-shore fishing may
collapse because coral reefs cannot recover from
annual bleaching. If fish stocks were to disintegrate,
The case of Niue illustrates that repeated extreme
the island states would have to look for alternatives
weather events have the potential to eradicate a
such as imports in order to maintain food security,
small island’s prospect of development. Niue was
thereby intensifying their dependency.
severely hit by tropical cyclones in 1959, 1960, 1970,
1989, 1990 and 2004. In 1990, cyclone Ofa turned
Niue from a food exporting to a food importing
country for the next two years. Most households and
small businesses were left with no insurance cover:
Insurance companies simply refused the risk. Hardly
having recovered, cyclone Heta caused even worse
damage in 2004: 15 percent of the population lost
their homes and had to migrate to New Zealand. Vital
infrastructure and nearly all cultural artefacts were
Furthermore, the deterioration of coral reefs directly
threatens the physical boundaries of islands because
reefs form a natural barrier that protects the coastline
from severe weather events. Thus, their destruction
leaves islands more vulnerable to disasters. The
coastal based tourism industry is additionally
affected,
3
which
has
major
implications
Interview with expert from the University of South
Pacific, Fiji, 11 September 2009.
for
7
employment: the tourism sector accommodates
manner (UNFCCC 2005). While each island state
several million visitors each year and is a major
possesses different adaptive capacities, with some
source
states better equipped to cope with climate change
of
occupation
and
income-generation,
providing an estimated 15-20 percent of formal
than
employment (Chasek 2009). There is growing
community-based adaptation strategies. Yet, the lack
concern that the effects of climate change will impact
of consistent data on projected impacts of climate
human health and wellbeing in adverse ways.
change makes every adaptation planning effort a
Already, malnutrition and poor sanitation pose
challenging task because no one knows exactly what
stresses on public health. However, in the future,
to adapt to. Furthermore, adaptation strategies have
islanders are likely to experience severe health
so far been much more reactive than anticipatory; the
burdens from climate-sensitive diseases (water-
range of measures considered and their assigned
borne, vector-borne and airborne diseases), including
priority have also been linked to the country’s key
morbidity and mortality from extreme weather events
socio-economic sectors. The most vulnerable low-
(Mimura 2007).
lying atoll countries possess especially limited
The very nature of many small islands, including
small physical size, limited natural and financial
resources,
and
relative
isolation,
puts
several
constraints on their adaptation options. Until
recently, adaptation has not been a high priority due
to more pressing problems faced by islanders and
nationwide climate change impact and vulnerability
assessments were not conducted in an integrated
others,
many
are
already
developing
capacities to conduct adaptation efforts. However,
studies have estimated that it would be more costly
for small islands to allow coasts to become inundated
than to defend them (Stern 2006). Small island states
will thus need substantial international financial as
well as human support in order to strengthen
institutional capacities and so enhance the adaptation
process (Mimura 2007).
4. Risk Analysis and Scenarios
Two major challenges arise from climate change for the security of island states: First, from a human-centred
perspective, the socio-economic fabric of the island states will be altered. Climate change will curtail access to
food and water, increase incidences of storm surges and lead to the submergences of out-lying islands. As
identity is connected to land and all land is customarily owned, the disappearance of land and livelihoods could
involve social fragmentation and increased emigration. Where governance is unable to mediate potential
secondary consequences, such as poverty, crime or land conflicts, these processes could be accelerated. The
impacts could erode countries from within, thus disintegrating island societies.
Second, taking a state-centred perspective, SLR and erosion of islands will reshape their maritime boundaries.
Concurrently, the region becomes more interesting for deep-sea fishing and deep-sea mining as global demands
for resources continue to increase. With the international system ill-equipped to address these issues, the
potential for international conflicts over borders, access to resources, and ultimately statehood and sovereignty
emerges.
Climate change will likely exacerbate the key
economic growth and sustainable development while
challenges of island states: Resource bases may be
some low-lying atoll countries will be directly affected
diminished due to sea-level rise and soil degradation
in their human security as SLR threatens their very
leading to increased food and water insecurity.
existence.
Extreme weather events may amplify in size and
frequency and reverse development; key industries
such as fishing and tourism may decline. Hence, the
Below two possible developments are outlined –
illustrative scenarios4 on the interaction of
already limited capacities of island states to cope with
climate change will contract, while the challenges will
increase. However, countries are affected differently.
High-lying islands will experience cuts in their
4
Many studies on climate change and security use a
scenario-approach due to the novelty of the issue and
its complexity (see Maas/Tänzler 2009). For a further
elaboration of this approach, please see WBGU 2007.
Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States
climate change with the current social, economic
•
8
Well-educated
and
qualified
individuals
are
and political trajectories of the region – describing
compelled
how climate change may affect the stability and
opportunities for unskilled labour decrease on the
security of island states in the Indian-Pacific Oceans
islands.
in a negative way. They are based on the findings
above and each begins with a set of “key
assumptions” about factors that are either already
present today
or which will likely be further
aggravated in the future by climate change. While the
scenarios have been analytically distinguished, they
may well occur simultaneously or become interlinked.
Also, the focus of the scenarios outlined below is on
potential security implications, meaning how the
adverse impacts of climate change will act on
different dimensions of security if left unaddressed.
to
migrate
internationally,
while
Land is central to the cultural identity and sense of
security across the Pacific islands. Its scarcity has
already generated inequalities reflecting unequal
distribution of benefits that have long persisted in
small island states. Traditionally, land has been
customarily owned, but lately the desire to earn profit
through the development of customary land has led
to
disputes
over
ownership
and
titles
within
customary landowner groups. This trend has brought
tensions between communities and overburdened
land administration agencies. Limited information and
It should be noted that violent conflict as an
unclear legal frameworks have often exacerbated the
immediate result of the effects of climate change
situation. Many people in small island states have
seems very unlikely. However, there exist in some
even been faced with land-related disputes within
countries long standing underlying inequalities and
their families (UNDP 2008).
threats to stability, where climate change and
disasters could act as triggers for violent expressions
of discontent.
Sea-level rise will most likely lead to further and
substantial land loss, either on the basis of imminent
erosion or because the land will become inhospitable,
The focus of the scenarios is on possible worst case
for example as a result of extreme weather events or
developments, which need to be avoided. Additional
constraints in agricultural productivity. In the medium-
scenarios will be necessary to develop to identify
term, the major problem associated with land scarcity
policy pathways in preventing climate-induced crisis.
will probably be with food security, which depends by
The scenarios below could serve as an input to this,
and large on access to land (FAO 2008). Food and
but would require expansion.
also water security could substantially cave in,
especially in outer islands where the subsistence
4.1
Disintegration: Land Loss and SocioCultural Decline
Key Assumptions
•
•
•
fishing. Repeated incidences of extreme weather
events have the potential to completely erase parts of
coastal areas, including tourism and commercial
Climate change leads to increased land loss,
facilities. Numerous occupation options would thus
either due to SLR or because the land becomes
be lost and with them decades of development. All of
uninhabitable.
this can entrench poverty and inequalities in coastal
Internal migration becomes necessary and more
regions.
frequent, leading to increasing pressures in
Land loss, related migration and the dissolution of
destination areas.
traditional family and neighbourhood structures are
Loss of land is traumatising as collective identity
of many islanders is tied to land, and is further
aggravated where important symbolic, historical
or spiritual sides are impacted.
•
lifestyle could be limited, both in farming and in
Revenues from the most important economic
socially and culturally disruptive. They will put vital
island assets at risk, including subsistence, traditions,
community structures as well as traditional coastal
settlements. The result will be the destruction of
important
cultural
and
spiritual
heritage
sites
(UNFCCC 2005). Thus, land loss constitutes the
sectors – tourism and near-shore fishery – cave in
deprivation
and are accompanied by generally decreasing
livelihood for the islanders, leading to adverse effects
of
commercial
as
well
as
human
economic opportunities.
on their socio-cultural and economic wellbeing. The
problem of the islands’ limited resource base
9
becomes apparent for those who stay and those who
Both
decide to leave alike.
statelessness
Customary land rights are difficult to settle and those
internally migrating may not be welcomed by the
recipient community or might not attain the desired
standard of living. Furthermore, the resources of the
migrants’
destination
may
degrade.
Resulting
discontent on both sides and a feeling of uprooting on
the side of the migrants could lead to rising crime
pose
significant
for
threats
entire
with
populations.
regard
This
to
fact
becomes especially clear in the United Nations
Secretary General’s report on the possible security
implications of climate change (UNSG 2009), in
which the effects of SLR are dubbed “the ultimate
security threat” to small island states. According to
the report, the loss of statehood has far-reaching
consequences for rights, security and sovereignty.
rates, drug abuse, domestic violence and tensions
In 2005, PNG’s Carteret Islands, which may be
between them and the recipient community. In a
completely submerged by 2015, were the first low-
context where governmental revenues contract due
lying islands evacuated due to climate change. 2,600
to economic deterioration, its capacities to manage
people moved to the island of Bougainville. The
these
If
preceding chapter outlined the consequences of such
governance structures are not capable of managing
challenges
may
decrease
as
well.
an event. However, the loss of an island also means
competition over literally decreasing land in a fair
the loss of territory: The EEZ (200 nautical miles) of a
manner, the likelihood of violent expressions of
one square metre island in the middle of the ocean
conflict will increase (UNDP 2008).
could exceed 431,000 square kilometres if it is not
Well-educated and qualified people may migrate to
other countries, fuelling brain drain in the region.
With the elite disintegrating, scarce resources
and unclear land situations, tensions or even
limited by the EEZ of another country. As 95 percent
of Pacific islands’ entire sovereign jurisdiction is
maritime, no islet can be considered insignificant,
regardless how small.
conflicts are likely to emerge. Together these
Increasingly, deep-sea mining and deep-sea fishing
elements have a significant potential for damaging or
could raise the interest of extra-regional entities, such
even extinguishing islanders’ collective
identity,
as companies and states. Fishery will become
causing social friction and unrest and adding to
increasingly important in a world of declining food
existing socio-economic conflict potential.5
production. Offshore tuna in particular is one of the
world’s
4.2
Sea-Grab: Challenging Sovereignty and
Borders
•
most
valuable
fisheries.
Furthermore, the global economy is projected to grow
for the foreseeable future, thus, resource demands
corporations
or
countries
could
become
an
Globally growing demands – for resources and
interesting source of income for many island states
food – make the Indian-Pacific region increasingly
as traditional economic opportunities such as tourism
attractive for extra-regional actors. Deep-sea
decline. It could also provide vitally needed funds for
fisheries and mining become more relevant.
adaptation, financing recovery measures after a
Climate
change
continuously
changes
the
maritime borders of island states, making dispute
in absence of sufficiently advanced international
law and dispute settlement bodies more likely.
•
and
will also continue to grow. Selling concessions to
Key Assumptions
•
largest
Islands become less habitable and long before
they will be submerged, they may be abandoned.
disaster, and buffering against shocks in the global
economy, such as energy and food price hikes.
Concessions could also be sold to countries offering
shelter if island countries are submerged, special
working permits for islanders, or other special forms
of remuneration.
Changing sea-borders and associated questions of
Sea-level rise will lead to a loss of territory or even
exploration rights may lead to international disputes
total submergence while extreme weather events can
over maritime borders: There are literally thousands
potentially render an island quickly uninhabitable.
of small islands and islets, and the EEZ of many
countries may continue to change over the coming
5
decades. Countries may think about reclaiming
Workshop Report: Suva Technical Workshop;
September 10, 2009.
territory to extend their EEZ. As there are severe
Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States
international restrictions regarding deep-sea mining
in international waters, but none within maritime
borders, incentives for reclaiming territory increase.
On the other hand, incentives will increase for states
to no longer recognise the island states or their
territory,
if
outlying
islets
are
abandoned.
Consequences for voting powers in the international
system will be profound because small island states
form a considerable bloc. At the same time desperate
island states could use their voting power to stall
decision-making
processes
and
degrade
the
international system.
4.3
10
Conclusions
The scenarios outlined above are only plausible
speculation based on existing trends and knowledge.
Their intention is to describe how climate change
could impact the region and interface with existing
threats
of
instability.
Reviewing
these
threats,
security implications are mostly indirectly decreasing
stability. While violent conflict is known in the IndiaPacific region, major challenges emerge rather from
food or water insecurity, loss of collective identity,
and uprooting. Livelihoods and societies will erode,
which may translate into violent conflict if governance
These developments – claims over increasingly
structures are unable or unwilling to mediate. Aside
important
of
from these domestic dynamics, the region is
statehood – may spur uncooperative diplomacy and
territory,
questions
of
recognition
becoming increasingly attractive for its resources, at
tensions between countries. There have been several
a time when international borders are continuously
incidents over the past decades, where disputes over
reshaped by climate change and the international
fisheries became militarised and warships started to
system is not prepared to deal with its implications.
escort trawlers or patrol their maritime territory.
Examples can even be found between political stable
countries having otherwise friendly relations, such as
Spain and Canada (Carius et al. 2007). In the face of
these
challenges,
long-established
rules
of
international law may prove insufficient.6 In a world
where the international system is increasingly under
pressure and global governance may fail due to the
multiplicity of crises created by climate change (see
WBGU 2007), it is unlikely that these issues will be
resolved. Conflicts between countries over maritime
borders could then have spill-over effects to other
areas.
These challenges imply that if the international
community takes only limited action to support island
states, the future for them will be one of climateinduced crises. As the islands’ capacities are limited
to adapt to SLR or recover from disasters, their
economic
development
and
political
stability
becomes increasingly perilous. In addition, with land
loss as well as internal and external migration,
societies may disintegrate and fragment over time,
hollowing out island states from within. Selling
concessions for deep-sea mining and fisheries
becomes an opportunity to cope with the lack of
capacities in the short-term. But in the medium- to
Finally, aside from the international dimension,
long-term, the continuous change of maritime borders
domestic conflict could also ensue. A new form of the
may result in international disputes and challenges to
often discussed “resource curse” (countries endowed
statehood.
with
unresolved, state fragility and domestic instability
rich
natural
resources
often
experience
corruption, development stagnation, and sometimes
even violent conflict) can apply to small island states.
The sudden access to a significant amount of
financial resources on the basis of commercialisation
of maritime resources may have a deteriorating effect
if wealth- and benefit-sharing is perceived as
inequitable. The case of PNG’s civil war illustrates
that resource extraction, unfair distribution of costs
and benefits and environmental destruction can
potentially fuel conflict.
6
Workshop Report: Suva Technical Workshop;
September 10, 2009.
If
benefit-sharing
questions
remain
could become entrenched.
Therefore, leaving the island states unsupported
would
indicate
a
fragmentation
of
the
global
community and reinforce global injustice, as their
contribution to climate change is minimal yet the
threats they face are existential.
11
5. Recommendations
Climate change will most likely have severe negative impacts on the livelihoods and societies of island states if a
pathway to prevent climate-induced instability is not taken. Improving capacities for analysis, strategic planning
and information dissemination will be necessary to prepare for the security impacts of climate. Mainstreaming
climate change impacts into daily policies, such as integrating a climate-lens and disaster risk reduction policies
in all decision-making processes will be vital for a comprehensive approach. Ultimately, however, the
international dimension of climate impacts needs to be reflected in the global debate, as well.
Against the background of the challenges pictured in
between Climate Change, Disasters and Potential for
the last chapter, a scenario for a pathway to
Conflict in the Pacific”. UNDP in partnership with
prevent potentially climate-induced instability
regional organisations has been setting up a new
would require early action to identify key security
program that seeks to advance the ability of national
impacts of climate change on all levels and to
and regional groups to prevent and manage violent
develop
adaptation
strategies
This
conflicts triggered by global warming. Its overall
requires
improving
the
and
objective is to reduce the potential for violent conflict
analytical tools available to the countries. Risk
resulting from climate change and the effects of
planning and management need to be advanced and
disaster in the Pacific region (UNDP 2008).
accordingly.
knowledge
base
contingency plans need to be developed, using
concrete and convincing data. Such plans may
include engineering as well as legislative solutions.
Improving food and water security, for instance
through desalinisation or aquaculture, are among the
priorities. The high seas are an important economic
resource for the island states; thus international laws
and regimes need to be established in order to
address continuously changing maritime borders.
This is also needed to support a conflict-sensitive use
of
these
resources,
and
avoid
disputes
from
emerging. Ultimately, however, plans have to be
developed and discussion opened on ways to
develop regulatory as well as practical solutions in
case
countries
are
submerged,
including
the
implications for statehood and citizenship.
In
their
national
communications
to
the
UN
Framework Convention (with the limitation that some
of them are a decade old), the island states either do
not touch on the climate change and security nexus
or link climate change to food security at most.
Recently, the island states have been at the forefront
to push the security implications of climate change on
the United Nations’ agenda. However, they are
regionally much more reluctant to frame global
warming as a threat to international security, with
its associated implications. On all accounts, concerns
related to human insecurity loom far larger than
conflict-related security threats. What is more, island
states are very considerate of the fact that resources
devoted to security could be withdrawn from more
pressing adaptation, mitigation as well as capacity
So far, these security challenges have not been
building efforts. Also, while there is a general and
addressed in an integrated manner. However,
occasionally acute awareness of climate change
island states and local NGOs are deeply engaged in
impacts, there is only limited knowledge about how
broader climate change related activities and of late,
this will concretely affect individual livelihoods.
bilateral donors and multilateral organizations have
Governance capacity for long-term thinking, risk
become
assisting
with
management and strategic planning remains limitedly
forthcoming).
Yet,
developed. However, the University of the South
together the number of projects being implemented in
Pacific has started to integrate climate change in its
the islands’ region has remained comparatively
curriculum to address these challenges and to raise
limited in number and attempts to address questions
awareness among its students.
adaptation
increasingly
active
(Barnett/Campbell
in
of conflict-sensitive adaptation (see Carius et al.
2008) have been scarce.
The challenges lying before the region will exceed
domestic capacities to act. With its significant
The only project in the region that is concerned
resources
with
conflict-related
organisation, the EU could act as supporter and
impacts of climate change is UNDP’s “Interface
facilitator of necessary preparations to climate
immediate
security-
or
and
as
impartial
extra-regional
Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States
12
development
states, but could involve abrupt changes such as
cooperation will be the main instrument in
a series of extreme events. Integrating risk
mitigating the challenges of climate change. A
management and assessing likely environmental
complementary use of thematic and national/regional
changes have to feature in policy planning at all
programmes will be necessary to maximise the
levels, including crisis response at EU level.
change
impacts.
In
particular,
impact. The following actions need to be considered:
•
Risk management and disaster risk reduction
has to be prioritised including developing early
Analysis and Methodologies:
warning systems for potential natural disasters
•
resulting from extreme weather events.
Develop
an
vulnerability
•
integrated
assessment
approach
to
evaluate
the
to
be upscaled. This includes regional, national and
local level capacities for analysis. Community
economic and political factors also need to be
planning tools capable of integrating climate
integrated.
change purposefully are vital for a comprehensive
Data collection for adaptation planning needs
approach to climate adaptation.
•
Mainstreaming climate change in education
national and sub-national level, as the different
systems needs to be improved. Due to the
physical (e.g. low-lying vs. high-rising) and socio-
nature of island states, climate change will impact
economic (e.g. subsistence fishing vs. tourism)
the daily livelihoods of all islanders, from local
geography of islands will face different challenges
fishers on remote islands to businesspeople in the
and require tailored solutions.
capitals.
Participatory policy methods need to be further
•
Supporting no-regret measures on all areas to
explored, as many island cultures are highly
improve
democratic societies and possess a strong sense
environmental degradation, and improve energy,
of community. Capitalising on these strengths will
water and food security.
be critical for developing ownership and raising
awareness.
•
Capacities for research and analysis have to
Non-climate related hazards as well as key socio-
to be improved to identify key challenges on
•
•
islands’ vulnerability to climate change impacts.
•
resource
efficiency,
reduce
Improving exchanges between local, national
and regional levels. Often there is better
Developing conflict-sensitive approaches to
interchange of information between the countries,
adaptation will be critical for the region to avoid
via regional organisations, than between the
exacerbating
potential
national
particular,
developing
approaches
for
tensions
relocating
further.
In
government
and
their
own
village
conflict-sensitive
communities.
people
information across all levels is necessary.
where
Improving
the
free
flow
of
necessary is of utmost importance. This has to
take into account the specific socio-cultural
context of the region, relations to land and
•
traditional decision-making.
•
Regional and International Cooperation:
impacts on maritime borders. In particular, a
The impacts of climate change on maritime
framework needs to be developed to cope with
borders need to be studied and the capacity of
these impacts against the background of the
existing dispute settlement bodies assessed with
current UN convention on the law of the sea.
a view to improve them.
•
Institutional
Development
and
Response
Formulation:
•
Initiating a debate on addressing climate
Initiating a debate on addressing climateinduced statelessness.
While it may take
decades before islands are submerged, an
advanced debate is necessary to identify a
Environmental dynamics have to be a key
suitable, conflict-sensitive and dignified way in
priority in strategic planning. Climate change
which potential statelessness or climate-induced
will continuously alter the situation of island
migration could be addressed.
13
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