* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Climate Change and Security. Two Scenarios for the Indian
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate Change and Security Two Scenarios for the Indian-Pacific Ocean Island States 2009 Climate Change and Security Two Scenarios for the Indian-Pacific Ocean Island States This report was prepared for the Directorate-General External Relations of the European Commission by Alexander Carius, Achim Maas and Janina Barkemeyer (Adelphi Research) This report does not reflect the opinion of the European Commission Version 1.0 2009 Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States I Executive Summary The island states in the Pacific and Indian Oceans dynamic, unpredictably changing and increasingly are politically relatively stable compared to other unclear demarcation of sea borders the potential for regions. Few violent conflicts exist in the region. Yet, international conflict may arise, especially in the they are facing difficulties due to their small size; absence of an adequate legal system to address remoteness; limited resource base; dependence on these imports, few economic sectors, foreign aid and decreasing habitability of islands may raise questions remittances; and vulnerability to natural disasters. of statehood as well. Indeed, a single large disaster can destroy large parts of an island’s economy. issues. Ultimately, sea-level rise and Ongoing regional activities on climate change have Climate change is likely to worsen this situation by reducing livelihood opportunities decreasing food and water security; increasing the severity and frequency of extreme weather events; and decreasing economic opportunities due to loss of agriculture land and tourism. Sea-level rise worsened by increasing storm surges and flood risks will lead to inundation and erosion of coastal areas, where most of the infrastructure and population are concentrated. Long before any island might be submerged, climate change may render islands uninhabitable. Thus, climate change will be a critical threat to satisfying basic human needs. The Indian-Pacific Ocean Island States This threat will erode island societies from within: Land is often customarily owned, and the loss of land so far been limited and only one initiative focuses and associated spiritual sites has psychological and primarily on the ultimate security- and conflict-related cultural impacts. Coupled with loss of income and implications employment; positions of island states vary in this regard, as will migration within island states; of climate change. Moreover, the emigration of qualified individuals; and stretched the concrete impacts on each state. capacities of governments to cope with the stresses, Against the background of likely severe impacts of this could lead to fragmentation and disintegration climate change, it will be necessary to integrate of island societies. In turn, this fragmentation could climate concerns across all areas from the local translate into crime and violent expression of conflict to the regional. This requires improving the where left unaddressed. knowledge base and analytical tools; developing Furthermore, climate change will continue to alter conflict-sensitive the maritime borders of island states, impacting improving capacities for advanced planning; disaster their territory. Increasingly, the region may become risk attractive reduction; approaches and managing to adaptation; climate-induced entities exploiting challenges. Finally, it is necessary to initiate and and fisheries). drive forward the international debate on maritime Concessions may be sold in exchange for much questions as well as potentially climate-induced needed resources if adaptation and recovery statelessness. resources to extra-regional (deep-sea mining needs escalate across the region. However, with a II List of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...........................................................................................................................................I 1. INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................................1 2. POLITICS, SOCIETY, ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT ..............................................................................2 2.1. ECONOMIC AND GEOGRAPHIC PROPERTIES ........................................................................................................2 2.2. POLITICAL STABILITY AND CONFLICT POTENTIALS ................................................................................................4 3. CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS AND IMPACTS ...............................................................................................5 4. RISK ANALYSIS AND SCENARIOS ..............................................................................................................7 4.1 DISINTEGRATION: LAND LOSS AND SOCIO-CULTURAL DECLINE .............................................................................8 4.2 SEA-GRAB: CHALLENGING SOVEREIGNTY AND BORDERS .....................................................................................9 4.3 CONCLUSIONS ...............................................................................................................................................10 5. RECOMMENDATIONS..................................................................................................................................11 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................................13 List of Maps and Tables Table 1: Population 2010 and 2050, Population below poverty line, GDP and HDI values for selected island states 4 Map 1: EEZs in Oceania 3 Map 2: The potential risk to coral reefs from human-threat factors 6 Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States List of Abbreviations AR4 Fourth Assessment Report AusAid Australian Government Overseas Aid Program CCIS Climate Change and International Security CROP Council of Regional Organisations in the Pacific EC European Commission EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation EU European Union FSM Federated States of Micronesia GCCA Global Climate Change Alliance GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environmental Fund HDI Human Development Index IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency NGO Non-governmental organisation NZAID New Zealand’s International Aid and Development Agency PNG Papua New Guinea PSIDS Pacific Small Island Developing States SLR Sea-level rise SPREP South Pacific Regional Environmental Programme UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme III 1 1. Introduction Climate change is likely to be among the key • challenges for international security and stability Section 4 outlines potential conflict constellations and scenarios, how climate change may lead to st in the 21 century (EU 2008). The European Union insecurity and instability. These constellations are (EU) initiated the EU Process on Climate Change plausible, yet hypothetical and are based on and International Security (CCIS) in response to literature review and expert assessment; more climate threats. The process commenced with the research is needed to improve validity. Joint Paper by High-Representative Solana and Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner in March 2008 (EU • have already begun to cope with the challenges 2008a). A progress report was submitted by the European Commission (EC) and the Section 5 outlines how different stakeholders of climate change for security. The section Council concludes with recommendations to the EU. Secretariat (SEC) to the General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) in December 2009. Security is broadly defined in this study. Climate Additionally, the United Nations (UN) change is best viewed as a threat multiplier, which As part of EU process, a synopsis of findings of regional studies on climate change and security was produced (Maas/Tänzler 2009). Within the scope of the study, four regions were identified, which have been less researched so far. Based on the synopsis, four additional studies were commissioned by the EC. The purpose of the studies is (1) to provide an overview to the region and likely climate change impacts; (2) outline potential security implications of climate change; and (3) to develop recommendations for the EU’s foreign, security and development policy. may create or exacerbate insecurities and tensions from the individual to the international level (EU 2008a). There are a variety of studies categorising and analysing the different channels, pathways and linkages between climate change and insecurity.1 A key difficulty is the use of the term ‘security’: Depending on its context and use, it may denote ‘hard’ (political/military conflicts) or ‘soft’ (access to food and water) issues. Climate change may impact ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ dimensions of security. Also, impacts on one dimension, such as food insecurity, may also have impacts on the other dimension, such as via This study is a scenario covering the ‘Indian- food riots (cf. Carius et al. 2008). Thus, ‘security’ is Pacific Ocean Island States’ region. The term is broadly defined within the scope of the studies below. used to describe the region stretching from the In particular, we will focus on the following aspects: Maldives in the West to the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) in the Pacific region. The • from the local to the international level. major relevant impacts of climate change are expected to be on small island states. • Leading to state fragility, radicalisation and degrading state capacities to implement policies. The study focuses on the region as a whole; individual countries and sub-national regions will be Contributing to violent conflict and disputes • Degrading human security and livelihoods via examined where appropriate. A common structure increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, was defined for all regional studies. It is as follows: energy poverty and the like. • • Section 1 provides an executive summary on Regarding climate change impacts, there is major findings and recommendations. emerging consensus that climate change impacts will Section 2 provides a regional overview to the region. It will briefly discuss issues of demography and migration, key economic challenges, as well as outline main lines of political and social instability and conflicts in the region. • Section 3 summarises the key impacts of climate change on the region. be far more drastic than assessed in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For instance, sealevel rise (SLR) is likely to be twice as high as estimated by the IPCC (Richardson et al. 2009). Also, 1 For a more in-depth discussion on interlinkages between climate change and different definitions of security, see Carius et al. 2008, WBGU 2007, Brown 2009, Smith/Vivikanda 2009, EU 2008. Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States 2 limiting global warming to 2°C, as intended by the EU workshops held in Bangkok (Thailand) on September and many other states, is already no longer possible: 3; Suva (Fiji) on September 10; Quito (Ecuador) on It would require emission cuts within the next decade November 4; and Beirut (Lebanon) on November 18. unlikely to be achieved (Fetzek 2009: 2). Instead, 38 working days have been allocated for each global study warming of 4°C (with strong regional including research, travel, workshop variations) by end of the century is currently facilitation and report writing. Due to regional becoming a more likely scenario (Richardson et al. specificities, the studies slightly vary with regard to 2009; Allison et al. 2009). However, a strong their structure and approach. uncertainty remains when and how concrete impacts of climate change will manifest. Thus, the studies will focus on the general climate trends already observable within the regions. They will span the period from the present day to 2050 as social, economic and environmental trend estimates are comparatively compared accurate with for this time period, 2050-2100 (cf. Lee 2009). Methodologically, the studies are based on deskbased research, interviews with experts and technical The studies do not aim to be comprehensive. Analysing potential future developments is always speculative to some degree. The scenarios are thus assumptions about likely relationships between climate change trends and the current regional context. Hence, this study provides an overview to key emerging issues related to climate change and security. More research will be needed to identify concrete national and sub-national hot spots and develop tailored recommendations. 2. Politics, Society, Economy and Environment Along with a high degree of remoteness, particular small island states face a limited resource base. This has entailed poor infrastructure and development pressures on the marine environment and on natural ecosystems, mainly in coastal zones. Furthermore, the islands’ economies are characterised by dependence on imports, international trade, foreign aid and remittances from populations working abroad. In the Indian and Pacific Oceans, most island states are politically stable. However, several have gone through periods of political instability and violent conflicts in the past decade. Causes of conflict have been related to land as well as ethnic frictions. Already, issues linked to internal relocation and to external migration are discussed as possible future catalysts for conflict. 2.1. Economic and Geographic Properties The small island states in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are among the smallest and remotest countries in the world. They are furthermore dispersed over a wide range, with territories such as the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) scattered low-lying atoll countries Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu. Atoll and reef countries do not reach more than a few metres above current sea-levels. In all countries, population and economic activity is concentrated in coastal areas. over a length of 2,900 kilometres. Half of the island Infrastructure remains weak. Often, houses and states in the Pacific have a territory smaller than roads are poorly built and cannot withstand floods 1,000 square kilometres and a population of less than and storms. Underdeveloped medical capacities are one million (Nauru 2009). However, they have incapable of providing sufficient health care (Nauru considerable marine resources: The Pacific small 2009). The remoteness of the islands also results in island states combine to around the same land mass higher as Spain (cf. FAO 2008), yet their exclusive communications. economic zones (EEZ) are, with 20 million square kilometres, about four times the size of the EU (Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat 2009, see Map 1). costs for energy, transportation, and The distinct physical and geographic characteristics of small islands create specific challenges and vulnerabilities. The central challenge revolves around There exist huge physical differences, ranging from their limited resource base. Apart from Papua New high land geography at the main island of Fiji to the Guinea (PNG), Sri Lanka, Solomon Islands and Fiji, 3 small island states are confronted with a limited the abandonment of mining efforts. There was also landmass coupled with a steadily growing population doubt (Booth 2006). High population density, economic ecosystems within the EEZ of the country issuing mining permits.2 activities and resulting resource demands exact development pressures on natural ecosystems. Especially forests and their biodiversity – which are an important component of the islands’ natural capital – are threatened by this development (EU 2006). Poor farming practices, which create soil run-off, as well as effluent discharge from hotels, are rapidly degrading coastal zones. This affects fisheries and tourism alike. whether impacts could be limited to The island states are diverse in their human and economic development. The range of Gross Domestic Products (GDP) per capita and the respective indexes of Human Development (HDI) are shown in Table 5. Only Seychelles has attained a high level of human development. On the other hand, PNG finds itself on the lower end of merely medium development. Population growth rates also vary Due to their small size, the islands are faced with disproportionately expensive across the island states. public administration as well as limited ability to reap the benefits of economies of scale (UNDESA 2007). Islanders strongly rely on subsistence farming and fishing. manufacturing Agriculture, and sea-related tourism, and fishing are the islands’ main industries. Some of the islands also sell the fishing rights of their EEZ to other countries, and offer fish registrations under their flag. Yet, food security is eroded due to persistent over-harvesting and illegal fishing (Michel 2008). Aside from fishing rights, a relevant future area stemming for from economic EEZs is activity deep-sea Map 1: EEZs in Oceania. Source: Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat mining. Within the distance of 200 nautical miles it is the responsibility of individual The island states are faced with a number of nations dependency to issue mining licenses and define factors. They are excessively environmental safeguards. Currently, however, there dependent on international trade, tend to rely on a is no legal framework in the Pacific region to guide limited number of external markets and a narrower policy surrounding tax and revenue. A Canadian range of commodities. They are highly sensitive to based company was granted offshore mineral and external exploration licenses by the PNG government in 1997 exception of fish, the PSIDS are net importers of and has since then been exploring the seafloor of food. It is a worrying trend that food is increasingly PNG territorial waters for gold, copper, zinc, silver serviced by imports throughout the Pacific, and some and other sources. Its worldwide first full-scale islands suffered under the global food crisis 2008 deepwater project is scheduled to commence in 2010 (FAO 2008). Energy-wise, most island states depend and will extract resources, which lie in 1,600 meters heavily on fossil fuels (UNFCCC 2005). Foreign aid of water. Further exploration work was completed in and remittances from populations working abroad are other EEZs as well. Yet, concerns over mining a major contribution to island economies. However, shocks, not least because, with the proposals are escalating across the Pacific region. Environmental risks were judged to be so large and 2 For more information on deep-sea mining see Shaffner unpredictable that a number of studies recommended 2008; Schofield/Arsana 2008; Halfar/Fujita 2007; and Bräuninger/König 2000. Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States 4 the global economic downturn has had a negative curtail tourism as well as other important economic effect on remittance inflows and has also started to sectors (Asian Development Bank 2009). election riots in 2006 further erased years of 2.2. development. Political Stability and Conflict Potentials • The secessionist war on the island of Bougainville was While many island countries are comparatively the result of long lasting feeling of suppression of local communities by the PNG peaceful and stable, several experienced political government. Tensions catalysed over a mine that instability and violent conflict in the past decade. caused substantial environmental damage. The They include among others Sri Lanka, PNG, Fiji and Bougainville people felt that their resources were Solomon Islands. Many conflicts were related to land being exploited almost entirely for the benefit of issues and ethnic frictions. However, the scale and others. Nine years of guerrilla warfare followed, intensity of conflicts and the level of instability vary across the regions (Hassall 2005; Wilson 2008). up to 10% of the population was killed and a • ended in 1997 (UNDP 2008). Until today, PNG further 60,000 people displaced until the war In Fiji, ethnic and political tensions, culminating in a number of coups d’état and civilian putsches and Solomon Islands face important problems of between 1987 and 2006 have been a source of governance and corruption, which are linked to instability and political isolation (Robertson 2005). issues of nation building (EU 2006). Individual The question of land has featured as one among allegiance is often given to clans or other identity several contributing factors in this series of crises. • groups than to the state. Identity, ethnicity and group allegiances, coupled • with land issues, lay at the basis of the civil through a long and bitter civil war arising out of conflict in the Solomon Islands, where fighting ethnic broke out in 1998. A number of factors such as of land, rapid tensions and land-related grievances between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil illegal squatting and use of customary lands, the commercialisation For more than 25 years, Sri Lanka had gone minority in the northeast (cf. ICG 2008). In May population 2009, the conflict appeared to be at an end, when growth and land pressure as well as poor government forces eliminated the last area management of urban growth further aggravated controlled by Tamil Tiger rebels. However, gross the situation (UNDP 2007). The conflict reduced violations of human rights continue. the country’s per capita GDP by a third, and post- Country Population 2010 (thousands) Population 2050 (thousands) Population below poverty line (%) Total GDP 2007 (US $ billions) GDP per capita 2007 (US $) HDI rank 2007 Comoros 691 1,226 60.0 0.4 714 139 Fiji 854 910 25.5 3.4 4,113 108 Maldives 314 455 21.0 1.1 3,456 95 Mauritius 1,297 1,426 8.0 6.8 5,383 81 PNG 6,888 12,871 37.0 6.3 990 148 Samoa 179 192 no data 0.5 2,894 94 Seychelles 85 97 no data 0.7 8,560 57 Solomon Islands 536 1,007 no data 0.4 784 135 Sri Lanka 20,410 21,705 22.0 32.3 1,616 102 Vanuatu 246 482 no data 0.5 2,001 126 Table 1: Selected Economic and Demographic Data. Sources: UNDP 09, UN Population Division 2009, CIA World Factbook 2009. Population data is for medium variants. 5 Aside from the above mentioned events, the Pacific still have far to go in terms of empowerment (UNDP and Indian Ocean region is not characterised by 2008). grave human rights problems and the vast majority of the island countries are fully-fledged democracies. Tonga, which is an almost absolute monarchy, constitutes an exception that suffers from democratic deficit. However, aligning traditional and modern governance structures remains not without friction. There are also serious issues related to gender. For example, widespread sexual and gender-based violence constitute important problems, and women Internal relocations related to sea-level rise were reported for FSM, PNG, Tuvalu and the Solomon Islands (Nauru Representative 2009). Because there is no legal framework regulating internal migration, however, and due to the customary status of land, emigration has become a more viable option. Still, it is evident that emigration so far has been prompted more by environmental uncertainties and economic motivations rather than by immediate climate-related realities (UN University et al. 2009). 3. Climate Change Trends and Impacts Climate change will lead to sea-level and sea-surface temperature rise and the related inundation and erosion of coastal areas as well as salt deposits in the soil and contaminants in the groundwater supply. Weather patterns will change and extreme weather events will increase in frequency and intensity. Warming oceans will lead to the destruction of coral reefs. These climate change trends present a number of threats to the region. Food and water security will very likely cave in and human health and well-being will be affected in adverse ways. Today, extreme weather events already often exceed the capacities of island states and result in humanitarian crises; in the future the situation will worsen. Tourism and fishing as key economic sectors may be severely reduced or collapse altogether, increasing dependency on foreign aid, remittances and related transfers. The dependency of island states on global markets also makes them vulnerable to adverse global developments, such as climate-induced global reduction of food production. Combined with potentially shrinking sources of income, islands states’ financial capacities may contract further. This will negatively impact options for adaptation. The long-term threat of total submergence exists, but is unlikely to materialise for whole countries until 2050. Long before, climate change impacts will make these islands less habitable, making relocation to less impacted parts of the islands necessary. Thus, degrading livelihood opportunities will be among the greatest challenges for the upcoming decades for all island countries in the region. characteristics, which puts islands’ territorial integrity at risk. Each remoteness and poor infrastructure makes small centimetre of SLR equates to the loss of maritime island states inherently vulnerable to the impacts of territory, with several centimetres easily leading to climate change. The concrete amount is still largely thousands of square kilometres lost. Beyond this, unknown making adaptation planning and risk SLR combined with increasing air temperatures has a management a challenge. Yet, most Pacific island number of critical implications, in particular for water countries have already experienced impacts in the security (Mimura 2007). For islands, securing form of climatic extremes: droughts related to the El adequate freshwater supplies for drinking, sanitation, Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cyclone-related and agriculture is a constant challenge made even floods, and eroding coastlines (Kinnas 2009). In more difficult by the adverse impacts of climate general, climate change trends are likely to be change: The combination of physical characterised as follows: • First, SLR will lead to inundation and soil The most fundamental effects of climate change stem erosion of coastal areas. Important coastal from sea-level and sea-surface temperature rise, resources, especially mangrove forests, will Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States • substantially decrease (Nauru Representative ruined. The sole hospital and many of the scenic 2009). coastal caves and extensive areas of reef, the Second, rising sea-levels are leaving salt deposits in the soil and contaminants in the groundwater supply. The groundwater of atoll islands is even more affected because they are permeable and prone to flooding from within. • 6 island’s main tourism attractions, were destroyed. Cyclone Heta is estimated to have caused economic damage equalling several hundred years of exports. With all economic sectors affected, the island has become especially dependent on external support. (UNFCCC 2005; FAO 2008). In general, natural Third, higher air temperatures lead to reduced disasters are followed by a decline in tourism, which water availability due to higher rates of water adds further economic pressure on top of the steep evaporation, reduced soil moisture and decreased costs to repair damage caused by storms and rate of groundwater recharge. increasing insurance prices. Map 2: The potential risk to coral reefs from human-threat factors. Low risk (blue), medium risk (yellow) and high risk (red). Source: Mimura et al. 2007. Consequences of rising sea-levels and temperatures also include changing weather patterns. The region is likely to experience increased frequency and severity of extreme events such as heat waves, exceptional rainfall events, summer droughts, tropical cyclones, and storm surges. Also, an increase of weeds, pests and diseases is possible. Shifts in rainfall patterns as well as more frequent and more intense periods of drought can cause soil degradation and lead to the rapid depletion of an island's surface and groundwater resources (Mimura 2007). The islands have limited capacities to counteract extreme weather events, let alone humanitarian disasters, if they escalate in scale. Warmer sea-surface temperatures lead to coral bleaching, while the absorption of CO2 makes oceans more acidic. Bleaching, altered temperature, ocean acidification and changing rainfall pose serious food security risks to islands that rely on agriculture and fisheries as their main food sources. The destruction of reefs causes sea water to infiltrate farmland, harming crops. Near-shore fishing as the other major contributor to food security and one of the principal resources for economic development could be seriously hampered, as well.3 Experts have predicted that by mid-century, near-shore fishing may collapse because coral reefs cannot recover from annual bleaching. If fish stocks were to disintegrate, The case of Niue illustrates that repeated extreme the island states would have to look for alternatives weather events have the potential to eradicate a such as imports in order to maintain food security, small island’s prospect of development. Niue was thereby intensifying their dependency. severely hit by tropical cyclones in 1959, 1960, 1970, 1989, 1990 and 2004. In 1990, cyclone Ofa turned Niue from a food exporting to a food importing country for the next two years. Most households and small businesses were left with no insurance cover: Insurance companies simply refused the risk. Hardly having recovered, cyclone Heta caused even worse damage in 2004: 15 percent of the population lost their homes and had to migrate to New Zealand. Vital infrastructure and nearly all cultural artefacts were Furthermore, the deterioration of coral reefs directly threatens the physical boundaries of islands because reefs form a natural barrier that protects the coastline from severe weather events. Thus, their destruction leaves islands more vulnerable to disasters. The coastal based tourism industry is additionally affected, 3 which has major implications Interview with expert from the University of South Pacific, Fiji, 11 September 2009. for 7 employment: the tourism sector accommodates manner (UNFCCC 2005). While each island state several million visitors each year and is a major possesses different adaptive capacities, with some source states better equipped to cope with climate change of occupation and income-generation, providing an estimated 15-20 percent of formal than employment (Chasek 2009). There is growing community-based adaptation strategies. Yet, the lack concern that the effects of climate change will impact of consistent data on projected impacts of climate human health and wellbeing in adverse ways. change makes every adaptation planning effort a Already, malnutrition and poor sanitation pose challenging task because no one knows exactly what stresses on public health. However, in the future, to adapt to. Furthermore, adaptation strategies have islanders are likely to experience severe health so far been much more reactive than anticipatory; the burdens from climate-sensitive diseases (water- range of measures considered and their assigned borne, vector-borne and airborne diseases), including priority have also been linked to the country’s key morbidity and mortality from extreme weather events socio-economic sectors. The most vulnerable low- (Mimura 2007). lying atoll countries possess especially limited The very nature of many small islands, including small physical size, limited natural and financial resources, and relative isolation, puts several constraints on their adaptation options. Until recently, adaptation has not been a high priority due to more pressing problems faced by islanders and nationwide climate change impact and vulnerability assessments were not conducted in an integrated others, many are already developing capacities to conduct adaptation efforts. However, studies have estimated that it would be more costly for small islands to allow coasts to become inundated than to defend them (Stern 2006). Small island states will thus need substantial international financial as well as human support in order to strengthen institutional capacities and so enhance the adaptation process (Mimura 2007). 4. Risk Analysis and Scenarios Two major challenges arise from climate change for the security of island states: First, from a human-centred perspective, the socio-economic fabric of the island states will be altered. Climate change will curtail access to food and water, increase incidences of storm surges and lead to the submergences of out-lying islands. As identity is connected to land and all land is customarily owned, the disappearance of land and livelihoods could involve social fragmentation and increased emigration. Where governance is unable to mediate potential secondary consequences, such as poverty, crime or land conflicts, these processes could be accelerated. The impacts could erode countries from within, thus disintegrating island societies. Second, taking a state-centred perspective, SLR and erosion of islands will reshape their maritime boundaries. Concurrently, the region becomes more interesting for deep-sea fishing and deep-sea mining as global demands for resources continue to increase. With the international system ill-equipped to address these issues, the potential for international conflicts over borders, access to resources, and ultimately statehood and sovereignty emerges. Climate change will likely exacerbate the key economic growth and sustainable development while challenges of island states: Resource bases may be some low-lying atoll countries will be directly affected diminished due to sea-level rise and soil degradation in their human security as SLR threatens their very leading to increased food and water insecurity. existence. Extreme weather events may amplify in size and frequency and reverse development; key industries such as fishing and tourism may decline. Hence, the Below two possible developments are outlined – illustrative scenarios4 on the interaction of already limited capacities of island states to cope with climate change will contract, while the challenges will increase. However, countries are affected differently. High-lying islands will experience cuts in their 4 Many studies on climate change and security use a scenario-approach due to the novelty of the issue and its complexity (see Maas/Tänzler 2009). For a further elaboration of this approach, please see WBGU 2007. Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States climate change with the current social, economic • 8 Well-educated and qualified individuals are and political trajectories of the region – describing compelled how climate change may affect the stability and opportunities for unskilled labour decrease on the security of island states in the Indian-Pacific Oceans islands. in a negative way. They are based on the findings above and each begins with a set of “key assumptions” about factors that are either already present today or which will likely be further aggravated in the future by climate change. While the scenarios have been analytically distinguished, they may well occur simultaneously or become interlinked. Also, the focus of the scenarios outlined below is on potential security implications, meaning how the adverse impacts of climate change will act on different dimensions of security if left unaddressed. to migrate internationally, while Land is central to the cultural identity and sense of security across the Pacific islands. Its scarcity has already generated inequalities reflecting unequal distribution of benefits that have long persisted in small island states. Traditionally, land has been customarily owned, but lately the desire to earn profit through the development of customary land has led to disputes over ownership and titles within customary landowner groups. This trend has brought tensions between communities and overburdened land administration agencies. Limited information and It should be noted that violent conflict as an unclear legal frameworks have often exacerbated the immediate result of the effects of climate change situation. Many people in small island states have seems very unlikely. However, there exist in some even been faced with land-related disputes within countries long standing underlying inequalities and their families (UNDP 2008). threats to stability, where climate change and disasters could act as triggers for violent expressions of discontent. Sea-level rise will most likely lead to further and substantial land loss, either on the basis of imminent erosion or because the land will become inhospitable, The focus of the scenarios is on possible worst case for example as a result of extreme weather events or developments, which need to be avoided. Additional constraints in agricultural productivity. In the medium- scenarios will be necessary to develop to identify term, the major problem associated with land scarcity policy pathways in preventing climate-induced crisis. will probably be with food security, which depends by The scenarios below could serve as an input to this, and large on access to land (FAO 2008). Food and but would require expansion. also water security could substantially cave in, especially in outer islands where the subsistence 4.1 Disintegration: Land Loss and SocioCultural Decline Key Assumptions • • • fishing. Repeated incidences of extreme weather events have the potential to completely erase parts of coastal areas, including tourism and commercial Climate change leads to increased land loss, facilities. Numerous occupation options would thus either due to SLR or because the land becomes be lost and with them decades of development. All of uninhabitable. this can entrench poverty and inequalities in coastal Internal migration becomes necessary and more regions. frequent, leading to increasing pressures in Land loss, related migration and the dissolution of destination areas. traditional family and neighbourhood structures are Loss of land is traumatising as collective identity of many islanders is tied to land, and is further aggravated where important symbolic, historical or spiritual sides are impacted. • lifestyle could be limited, both in farming and in Revenues from the most important economic socially and culturally disruptive. They will put vital island assets at risk, including subsistence, traditions, community structures as well as traditional coastal settlements. The result will be the destruction of important cultural and spiritual heritage sites (UNFCCC 2005). Thus, land loss constitutes the sectors – tourism and near-shore fishery – cave in deprivation and are accompanied by generally decreasing livelihood for the islanders, leading to adverse effects of commercial as well as human economic opportunities. on their socio-cultural and economic wellbeing. The problem of the islands’ limited resource base 9 becomes apparent for those who stay and those who Both decide to leave alike. statelessness Customary land rights are difficult to settle and those internally migrating may not be welcomed by the recipient community or might not attain the desired standard of living. Furthermore, the resources of the migrants’ destination may degrade. Resulting discontent on both sides and a feeling of uprooting on the side of the migrants could lead to rising crime pose significant for threats entire with populations. regard This to fact becomes especially clear in the United Nations Secretary General’s report on the possible security implications of climate change (UNSG 2009), in which the effects of SLR are dubbed “the ultimate security threat” to small island states. According to the report, the loss of statehood has far-reaching consequences for rights, security and sovereignty. rates, drug abuse, domestic violence and tensions In 2005, PNG’s Carteret Islands, which may be between them and the recipient community. In a completely submerged by 2015, were the first low- context where governmental revenues contract due lying islands evacuated due to climate change. 2,600 to economic deterioration, its capacities to manage people moved to the island of Bougainville. The these If preceding chapter outlined the consequences of such governance structures are not capable of managing challenges may decrease as well. an event. However, the loss of an island also means competition over literally decreasing land in a fair the loss of territory: The EEZ (200 nautical miles) of a manner, the likelihood of violent expressions of one square metre island in the middle of the ocean conflict will increase (UNDP 2008). could exceed 431,000 square kilometres if it is not Well-educated and qualified people may migrate to other countries, fuelling brain drain in the region. With the elite disintegrating, scarce resources and unclear land situations, tensions or even limited by the EEZ of another country. As 95 percent of Pacific islands’ entire sovereign jurisdiction is maritime, no islet can be considered insignificant, regardless how small. conflicts are likely to emerge. Together these Increasingly, deep-sea mining and deep-sea fishing elements have a significant potential for damaging or could raise the interest of extra-regional entities, such even extinguishing islanders’ collective identity, as companies and states. Fishery will become causing social friction and unrest and adding to increasingly important in a world of declining food existing socio-economic conflict potential.5 production. Offshore tuna in particular is one of the world’s 4.2 Sea-Grab: Challenging Sovereignty and Borders • most valuable fisheries. Furthermore, the global economy is projected to grow for the foreseeable future, thus, resource demands corporations or countries could become an Globally growing demands – for resources and interesting source of income for many island states food – make the Indian-Pacific region increasingly as traditional economic opportunities such as tourism attractive for extra-regional actors. Deep-sea decline. It could also provide vitally needed funds for fisheries and mining become more relevant. adaptation, financing recovery measures after a Climate change continuously changes the maritime borders of island states, making dispute in absence of sufficiently advanced international law and dispute settlement bodies more likely. • and will also continue to grow. Selling concessions to Key Assumptions • largest Islands become less habitable and long before they will be submerged, they may be abandoned. disaster, and buffering against shocks in the global economy, such as energy and food price hikes. Concessions could also be sold to countries offering shelter if island countries are submerged, special working permits for islanders, or other special forms of remuneration. Changing sea-borders and associated questions of Sea-level rise will lead to a loss of territory or even exploration rights may lead to international disputes total submergence while extreme weather events can over maritime borders: There are literally thousands potentially render an island quickly uninhabitable. of small islands and islets, and the EEZ of many countries may continue to change over the coming 5 decades. Countries may think about reclaiming Workshop Report: Suva Technical Workshop; September 10, 2009. territory to extend their EEZ. As there are severe Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States international restrictions regarding deep-sea mining in international waters, but none within maritime borders, incentives for reclaiming territory increase. On the other hand, incentives will increase for states to no longer recognise the island states or their territory, if outlying islets are abandoned. Consequences for voting powers in the international system will be profound because small island states form a considerable bloc. At the same time desperate island states could use their voting power to stall decision-making processes and degrade the international system. 4.3 10 Conclusions The scenarios outlined above are only plausible speculation based on existing trends and knowledge. Their intention is to describe how climate change could impact the region and interface with existing threats of instability. Reviewing these threats, security implications are mostly indirectly decreasing stability. While violent conflict is known in the IndiaPacific region, major challenges emerge rather from food or water insecurity, loss of collective identity, and uprooting. Livelihoods and societies will erode, which may translate into violent conflict if governance These developments – claims over increasingly structures are unable or unwilling to mediate. Aside important of from these domestic dynamics, the region is statehood – may spur uncooperative diplomacy and territory, questions of recognition becoming increasingly attractive for its resources, at tensions between countries. There have been several a time when international borders are continuously incidents over the past decades, where disputes over reshaped by climate change and the international fisheries became militarised and warships started to system is not prepared to deal with its implications. escort trawlers or patrol their maritime territory. Examples can even be found between political stable countries having otherwise friendly relations, such as Spain and Canada (Carius et al. 2007). In the face of these challenges, long-established rules of international law may prove insufficient.6 In a world where the international system is increasingly under pressure and global governance may fail due to the multiplicity of crises created by climate change (see WBGU 2007), it is unlikely that these issues will be resolved. Conflicts between countries over maritime borders could then have spill-over effects to other areas. These challenges imply that if the international community takes only limited action to support island states, the future for them will be one of climateinduced crises. As the islands’ capacities are limited to adapt to SLR or recover from disasters, their economic development and political stability becomes increasingly perilous. In addition, with land loss as well as internal and external migration, societies may disintegrate and fragment over time, hollowing out island states from within. Selling concessions for deep-sea mining and fisheries becomes an opportunity to cope with the lack of capacities in the short-term. But in the medium- to Finally, aside from the international dimension, long-term, the continuous change of maritime borders domestic conflict could also ensue. A new form of the may result in international disputes and challenges to often discussed “resource curse” (countries endowed statehood. with unresolved, state fragility and domestic instability rich natural resources often experience corruption, development stagnation, and sometimes even violent conflict) can apply to small island states. The sudden access to a significant amount of financial resources on the basis of commercialisation of maritime resources may have a deteriorating effect if wealth- and benefit-sharing is perceived as inequitable. The case of PNG’s civil war illustrates that resource extraction, unfair distribution of costs and benefits and environmental destruction can potentially fuel conflict. 6 Workshop Report: Suva Technical Workshop; September 10, 2009. If benefit-sharing questions remain could become entrenched. Therefore, leaving the island states unsupported would indicate a fragmentation of the global community and reinforce global injustice, as their contribution to climate change is minimal yet the threats they face are existential. 11 5. Recommendations Climate change will most likely have severe negative impacts on the livelihoods and societies of island states if a pathway to prevent climate-induced instability is not taken. Improving capacities for analysis, strategic planning and information dissemination will be necessary to prepare for the security impacts of climate. Mainstreaming climate change impacts into daily policies, such as integrating a climate-lens and disaster risk reduction policies in all decision-making processes will be vital for a comprehensive approach. Ultimately, however, the international dimension of climate impacts needs to be reflected in the global debate, as well. Against the background of the challenges pictured in between Climate Change, Disasters and Potential for the last chapter, a scenario for a pathway to Conflict in the Pacific”. UNDP in partnership with prevent potentially climate-induced instability regional organisations has been setting up a new would require early action to identify key security program that seeks to advance the ability of national impacts of climate change on all levels and to and regional groups to prevent and manage violent develop adaptation strategies This conflicts triggered by global warming. Its overall requires improving the and objective is to reduce the potential for violent conflict analytical tools available to the countries. Risk resulting from climate change and the effects of planning and management need to be advanced and disaster in the Pacific region (UNDP 2008). accordingly. knowledge base contingency plans need to be developed, using concrete and convincing data. Such plans may include engineering as well as legislative solutions. Improving food and water security, for instance through desalinisation or aquaculture, are among the priorities. The high seas are an important economic resource for the island states; thus international laws and regimes need to be established in order to address continuously changing maritime borders. This is also needed to support a conflict-sensitive use of these resources, and avoid disputes from emerging. Ultimately, however, plans have to be developed and discussion opened on ways to develop regulatory as well as practical solutions in case countries are submerged, including the implications for statehood and citizenship. In their national communications to the UN Framework Convention (with the limitation that some of them are a decade old), the island states either do not touch on the climate change and security nexus or link climate change to food security at most. Recently, the island states have been at the forefront to push the security implications of climate change on the United Nations’ agenda. However, they are regionally much more reluctant to frame global warming as a threat to international security, with its associated implications. On all accounts, concerns related to human insecurity loom far larger than conflict-related security threats. What is more, island states are very considerate of the fact that resources devoted to security could be withdrawn from more pressing adaptation, mitigation as well as capacity So far, these security challenges have not been building efforts. Also, while there is a general and addressed in an integrated manner. However, occasionally acute awareness of climate change island states and local NGOs are deeply engaged in impacts, there is only limited knowledge about how broader climate change related activities and of late, this will concretely affect individual livelihoods. bilateral donors and multilateral organizations have Governance capacity for long-term thinking, risk become assisting with management and strategic planning remains limitedly forthcoming). Yet, developed. However, the University of the South together the number of projects being implemented in Pacific has started to integrate climate change in its the islands’ region has remained comparatively curriculum to address these challenges and to raise limited in number and attempts to address questions awareness among its students. adaptation increasingly active (Barnett/Campbell in of conflict-sensitive adaptation (see Carius et al. 2008) have been scarce. The challenges lying before the region will exceed domestic capacities to act. With its significant The only project in the region that is concerned resources with conflict-related organisation, the EU could act as supporter and impacts of climate change is UNDP’s “Interface facilitator of necessary preparations to climate immediate security- or and as impartial extra-regional Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States 12 development states, but could involve abrupt changes such as cooperation will be the main instrument in a series of extreme events. Integrating risk mitigating the challenges of climate change. A management and assessing likely environmental complementary use of thematic and national/regional changes have to feature in policy planning at all programmes will be necessary to maximise the levels, including crisis response at EU level. change impacts. In particular, impact. The following actions need to be considered: • Risk management and disaster risk reduction has to be prioritised including developing early Analysis and Methodologies: warning systems for potential natural disasters • resulting from extreme weather events. Develop an vulnerability • integrated assessment approach to evaluate the to be upscaled. This includes regional, national and local level capacities for analysis. Community economic and political factors also need to be planning tools capable of integrating climate integrated. change purposefully are vital for a comprehensive Data collection for adaptation planning needs approach to climate adaptation. • Mainstreaming climate change in education national and sub-national level, as the different systems needs to be improved. Due to the physical (e.g. low-lying vs. high-rising) and socio- nature of island states, climate change will impact economic (e.g. subsistence fishing vs. tourism) the daily livelihoods of all islanders, from local geography of islands will face different challenges fishers on remote islands to businesspeople in the and require tailored solutions. capitals. Participatory policy methods need to be further • Supporting no-regret measures on all areas to explored, as many island cultures are highly improve democratic societies and possess a strong sense environmental degradation, and improve energy, of community. Capitalising on these strengths will water and food security. be critical for developing ownership and raising awareness. • Capacities for research and analysis have to Non-climate related hazards as well as key socio- to be improved to identify key challenges on • • islands’ vulnerability to climate change impacts. • resource efficiency, reduce Improving exchanges between local, national and regional levels. Often there is better Developing conflict-sensitive approaches to interchange of information between the countries, adaptation will be critical for the region to avoid via regional organisations, than between the exacerbating potential national particular, developing approaches for tensions relocating further. In government and their own village conflict-sensitive communities. people information across all levels is necessary. where Improving the free flow of necessary is of utmost importance. This has to take into account the specific socio-cultural context of the region, relations to land and • traditional decision-making. • Regional and International Cooperation: impacts on maritime borders. In particular, a The impacts of climate change on maritime framework needs to be developed to cope with borders need to be studied and the capacity of these impacts against the background of the existing dispute settlement bodies assessed with current UN convention on the law of the sea. a view to improve them. • Institutional Development and Response Formulation: • Initiating a debate on addressing climate Initiating a debate on addressing climateinduced statelessness. While it may take decades before islands are submerged, an advanced debate is necessary to identify a Environmental dynamics have to be a key suitable, conflict-sensitive and dignified way in priority in strategic planning. Climate change which potential statelessness or climate-induced will continuously alter the situation of island migration could be addressed. 13 References Allison, Ian et al. 2009: The Copenhagen Diagnosis. Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science. Available at http://copenhagendiagnosis.org/ (24 November 2009). Asian Development Bank 2009: Asian Development Outlook. Available at http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/ADO/2009/ado2009.pdf (4 November 2009). Barnett, Jon and John Campbell forthcoming: Climate Change and Small Island States – Power, Knowledge and the South Pacific. Earthscan. Booth, Heather et al. 2006: Population Pressures in Papua New Guinea, the Pacific Island Economies, and Timor Leste. Background Paper. Washington D.C., World Bank. Bräuninger, Thomas and Thomas König 2000: Making Rules for Governing Global Commons – The Case of Deep-Sea Mining. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 44, No. 5 (Oct. 2000), pp. 604-629. Carius, Alexander, Dennis Tänzler and Achim Maas 2008: Climate Change and Security – Challenges for German Development Cooperation. Eschborn: GTZ. Carius, Alexander, Dennis Tänzler and Judith Winterstein 2007: Weltkarte von Umweltkonflikten – Ansätze zur Typologisierung. Externe Expertise für das WBGU Hauptgutachten „Welt im Wandel: Sicherheitsrisiko Klimawandel“. Available at http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg2007_ex02.pdf (03 November 2009). Chasek, Pamela 2009: Mind the Gap – Confronting the MEA Implementation Gap in the Pacific Island Countries. Paper submitted to the International Studies Association 50th Convention New York, NY, 15-18 February 2009. Available at http://www.sprep.org/att/irc/ecopies/pacific_region/448.pdf (9 November 2009). CIA World Factbook 2009: Population below Poverty Line. Available at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/fields/2046.html?countryName=Holy%20See%20(Vatican%20City)&countryCode=vt®ionCode=eu&#vt EU 2008: Climate Change and International Security. Paper from the High Representative and the European Commission to the European Council. S113/08, 14 March 2008. Available at http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressData/en/reports/99387.pdf (03 July 2009). EU 2008a: Report on the Implementation on the European Security Strategy. Providing Security in a Changing World. Available at http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/EN/reports/104630.pdf (03 July 2009). EU 2006: EU Relations with the Pacific Islands – a strategy for a strengthened partnership. Commission to the European Council. SEC 642/06, 29 May 2006. Available at http://ec.europa.eu/development/icenter/repository/strategy_pacific_2006_en.pdf (30 October 2009). FAO 2008: Climate Change and Food Security in Pacific Island Countries. Available at ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0530e/i0530e.pdf (13 November 2009). Fetzek, Shiloh 2009: Climate-Related Impacts on National Security in Mexico and Central America. Interim Report. London: Royal United Services Institute. Halfar, Jochen and Rodney M. Fujita 2007: Danger of Deep-Sea Mining. Science Vol 316, 18 May 2007. Hassall, Graham 2005: Peace Building literature and Peace Building in the Fiji context. Fiji National Consultation on the GPPAC Programme. 14-16 March 2005. Human Rights Watch 2009: Free All Unlawfully Detained. 24 November 2009. Available at: http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2009/11/24/sri-lanka-free-all-unlawfully-detained (25 November 2009). ICG 2008: Sri Lanka’s Eastern Provinces: Land, Development and Conflict. Asia Report N°159. Brussels: International Crisis Group. Kinnas, Yannis 2009: Human Security, Climate Change and Small Islands, in Brauch, Hans Günter et al.: Facing Global Environmental Change. Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer. Climate Change and Security in the Indian Pacific Ocean Island States 14 Lee, James R. 2009: Climate Change and Armed Conflict. Hot and Cold Wars. London and New York: Routledge. Maas, Achim and Dennis Tänzler 2009: Regional Security Implications of Climate Change. A Synopsis. Adelphi Report 01/09. Berlin: Adelphi Consult. Michel, James A. 2008: Speech of the President of the Republic of Seychelles at the FAO High-Level Conference on World Food Security. The Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy. Rome, 3 June 2008. Mimura, Nobuo et al. 2007: Small islands, in IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 687-716. Available at http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/AR4/website/16.pdf (11 November 2009). Nauru Permanent Representation to the UN 2009: Views on the Possible Security Implications of Climate Change to be included in the report of the Secretary-General to the 64th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/resources/res_pdfs/ga-64/cc-inputs/PSIDS_CCIS.pdf (26 October 2009). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat 2009: Member Countries. Available at: http://www.forumsec.org.fj/pages.cfm/aboutus/member-countries/ (28 October 2009): Report of the United Nations Secretary General (UNSG) 2009: Climate change and its possible security implications. United th Nations General Assembly, 64 session. Richardson, Katherine et al. 2009: Synthesis Report. Climate Change. Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions. Copenhagen 2009, 10-12 March. Available at http://climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport/ (3 July 2009). Robertson, Robbie 2005: Ethnicity, National Identity and Military Intervention in Fiji. Paper for the Fiji National Consultation on the GPPAC Programme, ‘Towards Strengthening the Roles of Civil Society in Peace Building and the Prevention of Armed Conflict in the Pacific’, 14-15 March 2005. Schofield, Clive and I Made Andi Arsana 2008: Beyond the Limits? Outer Continental Shelf Opportunities and Challenges in East and Southeast Asia. Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 31, No. 1 (2008), pp. 28-63. Shaffner, Justin 2008: Concerns over deep-sea mining escalate. The Melanesian, 3 July 2008. Available at: http://themelanesian.org/2008/07/03/concerns-over-deep-sea-mining-escalate/ (13 November 2009). Stern, Nicolas 2006: The Economics of Climate Change. The Stern Review. Available at http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm (30 July 2007). UNDESA 2007: Small Island Developing States. Available at http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/sids/sidslist.htm (9 November 2009). UNDP 2009: Human Development Report – Overcoming barriers, human mobility and development. Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2009_EN_Complete.pdf (2 November 2009). UNDP 2008: The Interface between Climate Change, Disasters and Potential for Conflict in the Pacific – Concept Note, December 2008. UNDP 2007: Solomon Islands – Peace and Conflict Development Analysis. Emerging Priorities in Preventing Future Violent Conflict. Pacific Islands Governance Portal. 2007, No. 71. UNFCCC 2005: Climate Change, Small Island Developing States. Climate Change Secretariat, Bonn. Available at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/cc_sids.pdf (4 November 2009). UN Population Division 2009: World Population Prospects. Available at: http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp (25 November 2009). UN University et al. 2009: In Search of Shelter – Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement. Available at http://ciesin.columbia.edu/documents/clim-migr-report-june09_final.pdf (30 October 2009). WBGU 2007: World in Transition – Climate Change as a Security Risk. Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer. Wilson, Chris 2008: Land and Conflict in the Pacific Region. The Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat Land Management and Conflict Minimization project. Available at http://www.forumsec.org.fj/userfiles/file/LMCM%201_1%20COMPLETE.pdf (18 November 2009).