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Carsey New eNglaNd CarseyInstItute Issue BrIef No. 22 summer 2010 I n s t I t u t e DoscientistsagreeaboutClimateChange? PublicPerceptionsfromanewHampshiresurvey L aw r e n c e c . H a m i Lt o n anewsurveyInitiative Human-causedclimatechangehasadualidentityasamajor topicforscientificresearchandadivisivepoliticalwedge issueamongthepublic.Whileresearchacrossmanydisciplineshasbuiltastrongconsensusamongscientists,surveys havemappedoutdeepeningdivisionsinpublicopinion.1 However,thewordingofsurveyquestionsoftenconformsto popularratherthanscientificconcepts,makingcomparisons betweenpublicandscientificviewslessclear-cut.survey questionsmightbevaguelyworded,forexample,oraskordinarypeoplequestionsthateventopscientistscannotanswer, suchaspersonalconsequencesoffutureclimatechange. CarseyInstituteresearchers,workingwiththeuniversity ofnewHampshire(unH)surveyCenterandtheuniversity Officeofsustainability,recentlybegananewinitiativetrackingpublicperceptionsaboutclimatechangeastheychange overtime.aseriesofregionalsurveysdesignedforother purposesnowincludesasetofthreequestionsaboutclimate change.unlikequestionsonsomeearliersurveys,thequestionsinunH’snewsurveyinitiativefocusonthecentral pointstatedbyscientistsinawiderangeofscientificreports: whatishappeningnow—notsometimeinthefuture—due toclimatechange.Theneutralandfactualwordingofthe questionsfocusesonwhatpeopleknow,orbelievethey know,aboutclimatechangenow. Thefirstsurveytookplaceinapril2010aspartofnew Hampshire’sGranitestatePoll.alongwithotherquestions onpoliticalcandidatesandbackgroundfactors,astatewide sampleof512residentswasaskedhowwelltheyunderstand theissueofglobalwarmingorclimatechange,whether theythinkmostscientistsagreethatitishappeningnow andcausedbyhumans,andwhattheypersonallybelieve. OurnewHampshirepollwillberepeatedquarterly,with thenextwaveinsummer2010.Continuingresultshereand KeyFindings In April 2010, the Granite state Poll included three new questions about climate change on its survey of 512 New Hampshire residents. Key findings are as follows: • • • • • • slightly more than half the respondents believe they understand “a moderate amount” about climate change or global warming. Twenty-nine percent believe they understand “a great deal.” understanding tends to increase with education. About half think that most scientists agree climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. On the other hand, 41 percent think there is little agreement among scientists. similarly, about half personally believe that climate change is happening and is human caused. Thirty-nine percent believe it is happening but with natural causes. Only 4 percent believe that climate change is not happening. most of those with college or postgraduate education believe that climate change is happening now, caused by humans, and that scientists agree on this point. sharp polarization exists. While a large majority of Democrats believe that climate change is happening and is human caused, most republicans believe it is a natural phenomenon. Three-fourths of Democrats but only one-fourth of republicans think that most scientists agree. There is a strong correlation between personal beliefs and perceptions about the scientific consensus. 1 2 CarseyInstItute elsewhereshouldprovidea“thermometer”trackingpublic viewsofclimatechangescience,almostinrealtime.This collaborativesurveyresearchispartofunH’scommitment tointegratingsustainabilitythroughoutitscurricula,operations,research,andengagementefforts.2 HowMuchDoyouunderstand? Thefirstofthreeclimatechangequestionsinourtelephone interviewsaskedrespondentstoratetheirownunderstanding: next,Iwouldliketoaskyousomequestionsaboutthe issueofglobalwarmingorclimatechange.Howmuch doyoufeelyouunderstandaboutthisissue—would yousayagreatdeal,amoderateamount,onlyalittle,or nothingatall? 4 agreatdeal 3 amoderateamount 2 Onlyalittle 1 Don’tknow/nothingatall Mostrespondentsexpressedconfidenceintheirunderstandingofthesecomplexissues(seeFigure1).Fifty-three percentfelttheyunderstood“amoderateamount”about globalwarmingorclimatechange,andtwenty-ninepercent saidtheyunderstood“agreatdeal.”relativelyfewadmitted tounderstanding“onlyalittle”(16percent)or“nothingat all”(2percent).Marginsoferrorfortheoverallpercentages inFigures1,3,and5shouldbewithin+or–5percent. Figure1.Howmuchdoyouunderstandabout climatechange? Nothing 16 Moderate 53 Great deal 0 29 10 20 30 Weighted percent 40 Figure2.Howmuchunderstandingaboutclimate change,byeducation High school or less Nothing Technical/some college Nothing 5 Little Little 26 Moderate 19 Moderate 42 Great deal 2 50 Great deal 27 29 College graduate Nothing Postgraduate Nothing 0 1 Little Little 13 Moderate 59 Great deal 0 Moderate 54 Great deal 26 20 8 40 60 0 37 20 40 60 Weighted percent Doscientistsagree? 2 Little topicssuchasthegreenhouseeffect,atmosphericchemistry,andpastclimatechangeinvolvetechnicalknowledge outsidemostpeople’sexperience.Wefoundthatrespondents withhighereducationtendedtohaveevengreaterconfidenceintheirunderstanding.eighty-fourpercentofcollege graduatesandninety-onepercentofthosewithpostgraduatedegreessaidtheyunderstood“amoderateamount”or“a greatdeal”aboutclimatechange(seeFigure2). 50 Claimsthatscientistsdonotagreeaboutclimatechange havebeenwidelyrepeatedbynon-scientists.Injournalsand meetingswherescientistsaddresstheirpeers,onedoesindeedseelivelydiscussionandcompetinghypothesesregardingtopicssuchastheimpactsofclimatechangeonbehavior oficesheets,oceancurrents,andstorms.Behindtheunsettledfrontiers,however,standsabroadconsensusonmore fundamentalfacts.Thereislittledisagreementamongactive scientiststhatconcentrationsofcarbondioxide(CO2)and othergreenhousegasesaffecttheearth’sclimate,thatthese concentrationsarerapidlyincreasingduetohumanactivities andarealreadyreachinglevelsnotseeninhundredsofthousandsofyears,thatmanyindicatorsshowclimateunevenly butclearlywarmingnowasaresult,andthatfuturechanges inthisdirectionpresentrisksforcoastalcities,agriculture, andotheraspectsofcivilization.Theconsensusbuildson studiesrangingfrombasicphysicstoindicatorsofancient climates,satellitemeasurements,andocean-atmosphere models.suchresearchhasbeenconductedbyscientists acrossmanydifferentdisciplines,workingwithmanykinds ofdatainmanydifferentcountries. CarseyInstItute Consensusviewsbasedonthisbodyofresearchhavebeen articulatedthroughindividualandjointstatementsbyallof themajoru.s.scientificorganizationswithrelevantexpertise,3instatementsorreportsbythenationalacademiesof thirteenleadingscientificnations,4andinbroadinternationalreviewsofresearchresults.7asurveyofmorethan 3,000earthscientistsfoundthat90percentagreedthatmean globaltemperatureshavegenerallyrisencomparedwith pre-1880slevels.eighty-twopercentagreedhumanactivities areasignificantcontributingfactortotemperaturechange. amongactiveclimateresearchersansweringthesurvey, morethan96percentagreedonbothitems.6anopenletter totheu.s.CongressinOctober2009noted,“Observations throughouttheworldmakeitclearthatclimatechangeis occurring,andrigorousscientificresearchdemonstrates thatthegreenhousegasesemittedbyhumanactivitiesare theprimarydriver.”Thisletterwassignedbythepresidents ordirectorsofeighteenscientificorganizations,including theamericanassociationfortheadvancementofscience, theamericanGeophysicalunion,theamericanMeteorologicalsociety,andtheamericanstatisticalassociation. similarpointsweremadeinaMay2010lettersignedby255 membersofthenationalacademyofsciencespublished intheleadingjournalscience:“Theplanetiswarmingdue toincreasedconcentrationsofheat-trappinggasesinour atmosphere...Mostoftheincreaseintheconcentrationof thesegasesoverthelastcenturyisduetohumanactivities, especiallytheburningoffossilfuelsanddeforestation.”7 Wedesignedthesecondquestiononourpublicopinion surveytomatchthecentralpointmadeinallofthesestatementsbyscientists: Whichofthefollowingtwostatementsdoyouthinkis moreaccurate? 3 Mostscientistsagreethatclimatechangeis happeningnow,causedmainlybyhuman activities. 2 Thereislittleagreementamongscientists whetherclimatechangeishappeningnow, causedmainlybyhumanactivities. 1 Don’tknow/noanswer Inhalftheinterviews,“mostscientistsagree”wasthe firstchoicereadbytheinterviewer;intheotherhalf,“there islittleagreement”wasreadfirst.resultsfromthetwo formsarecombinedinouranalysisheretooffsetpossible response-orderbias.abouthalftherespondents(49percent) understandthatmostscientistsagreechangeishappening now,causedmainlybyhumanactivities.alargeminority (41percent),however,believetheretobelittleagreement amongscientists(seeFigure3). Figure3.Doscientistsagreeitishappeningnow, causedbyhumans? Don’t know/ no answer 9 Little agreement 41 Most agree 49 0 10 20 30 40 Weighted percent 50 awarenessofthescientificconsensusvariessharplywith respondenteducation,asgraphedinFigure4.Fifty-four percentofcollegegraduatesandfifty-ninepercentwith postgraduatedegreesthinkthatmostscientistsagree.respondentswithahighschooleducationorless,ortechnical school/somecollege,moreoftenbelievethatthereislittle agreementamongscientists. Figure4.Doscientistsagreeitishappeningnow, byeducation High school or less Don’t know/ no answer Technical/some college Don’t know/ no answer 12 Little agreement Little agreement 46 Most agree 13 49 Most agree 42 38 College graduate Don’t know/ no answer Postgraduate Don’t know/ no answer 6 Little agreement Little agreement 41 Most agree 54 0 20 40 8 60 32 Most agree 0 Weighted percent 59 20 40 60 3 4 CarseyInstItute WhatDoyouPersonally Believe? Figure6.Whatdoyoubelieve,byeducation High school or less Don’t know/ no answer Wealsoaskedrespondentswhattheypersonallybelieve aboutclimatechange: Not now Whichofthefollowingthreestatementsdoyoupersonallybelieve? 4 Climatechangeishappeningnow,caused mainlybyhumanactivities. 3 Climatechangeishappeningnowbut causedmainlybynaturalforces. 2 Climatechangeisnothappeningnow. 1 Don’tknow/noanswer similartothesciencequestion,wealternatedtheinterviewscriptssothat“happeningnow,causedmainlybyhumanactivities”wasreadfirsthalfthetime,and“nothappeningnow”wasreadfirstintheothers.Wealsoalternatedthe sequenceofthescienceandpersonalopinionquestions,so eachcamefirsthalfthetime.Overall,51percentchosethe “now/human”response(seeFigure5). Figure5.Whatdoyoupersonallybelieve? Don’t know/ no answer Not now 6 4 Now/natural 39 Now/human 0 51 10 20 30 Weighted percent 40 50 ThepatternsofpersonalbeliefsseeninFigure5resemble scientificagreementresultsinFigure3.Likeotherquestionsonoursurvey,personalbeliefsvarywitheducation (seeFigure6).Majoritiesofthosewithcollegeorpostgraduatedegreesthinkchangeishumancausedandhappeningnow.Thosewithoutcollegedegreesmoreoftencredit naturalcauses. Technical/some college Don’t know/ no answer 8 6 Not now 6 Now/natural Now/human 4 Now/natural 49 49 Now/human 37 42 College graduate Postgraduate Don’t know/ no answer 4 Don’t know/ no answer Not now 4 Not now Now/natural Now/natural 36 Now/human 20 40 24 Now/human 55 0 9 4 60 63 0 20 40 60 Weighted percent PolarizedViewsofscience BreakdownsinFigures2,4,and6drawattentiontothe influenceofeducationonwhatpeoplebelieveaboutclimate change.Giventhepolarizednatureofpoliticaldiscourseon thistopic,itcameasnosurprisetoseethatpoliticalorientationmattersevenmorethaneducation.Figure7depictsthe relationshipbetweenpoliticalpartyidentification(Democrat,Independent,orrepublican)andpersonalbeliefsabout climatechange.aboutthree-quartersoftheDemocrats, comparedwithonlyone-quarterofrepublicans,believethat climatechangeishappeningnow,causedmainlybyhumans. Mostrepublicansbelievethatclimatechangeishappening nowbutcausedbynaturalforces.Independentsfitbetween theseextremes,withapluralityaccepting“now/human.” Figure7.Whatdoyoubelieve,bypoliticalparty identification Democrat Don’t know/ no answer Independent 4 Not now 0 Now/natural Don’t know/ no answer 8 Not now 7 Now/natural 20 Now/human 75 37 Now/human 48 0 Republican Don’t know/ no answer 8 Not now 8 Now/natural 59 Now/human 0 26 20 40 60 80 Weighted percent 20 40 60 80 CarseyInstItute apoliticalbreakdownregardingagreementamongscientistsyieldssimilarresults(seeFigure8).Three-quartersof Democratsbutonlyonequarterofrepublicansthinkthat mostscientistsagreethatclimatechangeishappeningnow, causedbyhumans.Mostrepublicansbelieveinsteadthat thereislittleagreementamongscientists.Independentssplit almostevenlybetweenthetwochoices. Figure8.Doscientistsagreeitishappeningnow, bypoliticalpartyidentification Democrat Don’t know no answer Independent Don’t know no answer 5 Little agreement 20 Most agree 10 Little agreement 46 Most agree 44 75 0 20 40 60 80 Republican Don’t know no answer 13 Little agreement 63 Most agree 25 0 20 40 60 80 Weighted percent Ofcourse,respondents’personalbeliefsandtheirperceptionsofwhatscientistsbelieveturnouttobecloselyrelated (seeFigure9).Thosewhobelievethattheclimateischangingnow,duetohumancauses,overwhelmingly(82percent) thinkthatmostscientistsagreewiththem.Byalmostas greatamargin,74percentofthosewhobelievethatcurrentclimatechangehasnaturalcauses,orthatclimateisnot changing,thinkthatthereislittleagreementamongscientistsonthispoint. Figure9.Doscientistsagree,bywhatyoubelieve Don’t know/ no answer Don’t know/no answer 44 Little agreement 35 Most agree 20 Don’t know/no answer Not now 22 Little agreement 74 Most agree 5 Don’t know/no answer Now/natural 9 Little agreement 74 Most agree 17 Don’t know/no answer Now/human 4 Little agreement 14 Most agree 82 0 20 40 Weighted percent 60 80 Discussion Onissuessuchastherealityofclimatechange,scientists mightwishthepublicwouldlooktothemforexplanations ofresearchresultsandthenformtheirownopinions.In practice,however,mostofthepublichasnocontactwith theresearchjournalsandprofessionalmeetingsofscientists.scientists’effortstocommunicatemoredirectlywith thepublicfacecompetitionfromothervoices,oftenmore familiartolayaudiences,makingconflictingclaimsabout science.Highereducationclearlyplaysarole,visibleinthis surveyandothers.8Beyondtheirschoolyears,however, mostpeopleacquireinformationaboutscienceindirectly fromnon-scientists,suchasjournalists,politicalcommentators,activists,orbloggers.Theseintermediatesourceshave limitationsintheirowncomprehensionandmayholdstrong biasesaboutwhattotransmit.Moreover,inthisnew-media agepeopleincreasinglychoosetoacquireandretaininformationfromsourcesthatsupporttheirownprejudices,9so contraryinformationbecomessystematicallyfilteredout.as aresult,peoplewhohaveneverreadorlistenedtoclimate scientistscanneverthelessbelievetheyunderstandthescientists’researchfairlywellandholdstrongopinionsaboutthe validityofthisresearch. Improvedscienceliteracyamongjournalistswouldbevaluable,althoughnewsmediaexperiencingfinancialpressures sometimesfeelthatreportersdedicatedtosciencearealuxury theycannolongerafford.Onepromisingdevelopmenthas beenthegrowingengagementofleadingresearchersinscienceblogs,whichaimtomakestate-of-the-artscientificideas anddiscussionsaccessibletoamuchbroaderaudience.10Their effortsmighthelptocounterbalance,atleastpartly,someof theconfusionspreadbyless-informedsources. scientificknowledgeaboutclimatechangehasadvanced substantiallyinthefewyearssincetheIntergovernmental PanelonClimateChangepublisheditsFourthassessment report(2007).11However,whilescientificunderstandingadvanced,understandingbytheu.s.publicseemedto marchintheoppositedirection.severalrecentpollsfound significantdeclinesintheproportionofamericanswho believeclimatechangeishappeningoriscausedmostlyby humans.12Thesedeclinesfollowed“Climategate,”thetheft inthefallof2009ofemailsfromtheClimateresearchunit attheuniversityofeastangliaandasnowy2010winter inpartsoftheunitedstates.13Whiletheirdatashowthat globalwarmingcontinues,manyscientistsareencountering aseverelypolarizedpublicresponse. OurnewHampshirepollwillberepeatedquarterly,with thenextwaveinthesummerof2010.Continuingresultswill provideapublicopinion“thermometer,”trackingperceptionsaboutclimatechangescience,almostinrealtime. 5 6 CarseyInstItute endnotes 1.r.e.Dunlapanda.M.McCright,“aWideningGap: republicanandDemocraticViewsonClimateChange,” Environmentseptember/October2008,http://www. environmentmagazine.org/archives/Back%20Issues/ september-October%202008/dunlap-full.html;M.C.nisbet andt.Myers,“twentyyearsofPublicOpinionaboutGlobal Warming,”Public Opinion Quarterly71(3)(2007):444–470. 2.unHhasearnedseveralawardsforitssustainability initiatives,whichrangefromtheoldestendowed sustainabilityprograminu.s.highereducationtoleading policyresearchonvulnerablechildren,youth,andfamilies andsustainablecommunitydevelopment.Discover thesustainablelearningcommunityatunHatwww. sustainableunh.unh.edu,www.carseyinstitute.unh.edu,and www.discoversustainability.org. 3.n.Oreskes,“ThescientificConsensusonClimate Change,”Science306(5702)(2004):1686. 4.G8+5,“G8+5nationalacademies’Jointstatement: ClimateChangeandthetransformationofenergy technologiestoaLowCarbonFuture,”nationalacademies ofBrazil,Canada,China,France,Germany,India,Italy, Japan,Mexico,russia,southafrica,theunitedKingdom, andtheunitedstates,http://www.nationalacademies.org/ includes/G8+5energy-climate09.pdf;nationalresearch Council,advancingthescienceofClimateChange (Washington,DC:nationalresearchCouncilofthe nationalacademies,2010). 5.IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,Climate Change2007—ThePhysicalscienceBasis,Contribution ofWorkingGroupItotheFourthassessmentreport oftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange (Cambridge:CambridgeuniversityPress,2007);K. richardsonetal.,Synthesis Report from Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions(Denmark:university ofCopenhagen,2009),http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/ press-releases/files/synthesis-report-web.pdf. 6.P.t.DoranandM.K.Zimmerman,“Directexamination ofthescientificConsensusonClimateChange,”EOS90(3) (2009):22–23. 7.P.H.Gleicketal.,“ClimateChangeandtheIntegrityof science,”Science 328(5979)(2010):689–690. 8.L.C.HamiltonandB.D.Keim,“regionalVariationin PerceptionsaboutClimateChange,”International Journal of Climatology29(15)(2009):2348–2352;L.C.Hamilton, “WhoCaresaboutPolarregions?resultsFromasurveyof u.s.PublicOpinion,”Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 40(4)(2008):671–678. 9.M.a.Baumandt.Groeling,“newMediaandthe PolarizationofamericanPoliticalDiscourse,”Political Communication25(2008):345–365;D.M.Kahanetal., “ThesecondnationalriskandCulturestudy:Makingsense of—andMakingProgressin—theamericanCultureWar ofFact,”(Washington,DC:GeorgeWashingtonuniversity researchPaperno.370,2007). 10.Forexample,seehttp://www.realclimate.org. 11.Foranupdatecoveringnewerresearchsincethe2007 IPCCreport,seeK.richardson,Synthesis Report. 12.GallupPoll,“america’sGlobalWarmingConcerns ContinuetoDrop,”http://www.gallup.com/poll/126560/ americans-Global-Warming-Concerns-ContinueDrop.aspx;a.Leiserowitz,e.Mailbach,andC.roserrenouf,“ClimateChangeintheamericanMind: americans’GlobalWarmingBeliefsandattitudesin January2010,”(newHaven,Ct:yaleProjectonClimate Change,2010),http://environment.yale.edu/uploads/ americansGlobalWarmingBeliefs2010.pdf;Incontrast, anotherrecentsurveyemphasizedpublicsupportforaction onclimatechange,despitedivisionsonwhetherwarming hasmostlyhumancauses:stanforduniversity,“Global warmingpoll,”(ProducedbyGFK,2010)http://woods. stanford.edu/docs/surveys/Global-Warming-surveyselected-results-June2010.pdf. 13.althoughtheClimateresearchunitscientistswere widelycriticizedinnewsmediaandblogsbasedon excerptsfromtheseemails,twocarefulinquiriesfound noevidenceofwrongdoing:thescienceandtechnology Committeeoftheu.K.HouseofCommons(seehttp:// www.realclimate.org/docs/387.pdf)andanindependent appraisalbytheOxburghreportcommissionedbythe universityofeastanglia(seehttp://news.sciencemag.org/ scienceinsider/2010/04/oxburgh-report-clears-controvers. html);Forrecentupdatesontemperaturetrends,seehttp:// data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/. CarseyInstItute acknowledgments DavidMooreattheCarseyInstituteadvisedonquestion designandsuggestedtheresponse-orderexperiments. supportfromtheunHOfficeofsustainabilityandthe CarseyInstituteenabledthisseriesofsurveys.sampling andinterviewsweredonebytheunHsurveyCenterin connectionwithitsGranitestatePoll. abouttheauthor LawrenceC.HamiltonisaprofessorofsociologyattheuniversityofnewHampshireandaseniorfellowattheCarsey Institute([email protected]). 7 8 CarseyInstItute since1997,theuniversityOfficeofsustainability—theoldest endowedsustainabilityprograminhighereducationinthe unitedstates—hasbeentransformingunHintoasustainable learningcommunityacrosscurriculum,operations,research andengagement,andinitiativesinbiodiversity,climate,food, andculture. www.sustainableunh.unh.edu Buildingknowledgeforfamiliesandcommunities TheCarseyInstituteconductspolicyresearchonvulnerable children,youth,andfamiliesandonsustainablecommunity development.Wegivepolicymakersandpractitionerstimely, independentresourcestoeffectchangeintheircommunities. ThisworkwassupportedbytheCarseyInstituteendowment andtheuniversityOfficeofsustainability. HuddlestonHall 73Mainstreet Durham,nH03824 (603)862-2821 www.carseyinstitute.unh.edu