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9/25/2016 The Science of Global Warming http://www.ethlife.ethz.ch/e/articles/sciencelife/klima interview.html Scientific Knowledge- Ranney Some solar radiation is reflected by atmosphere, clouds & Earth surface: 103 W/ m2 Sun: 343 W/m2 - Most Americans do not know the basic science of global warming - Ranney’s experiments show that when people learn it, the knowledge changes their attitudes Some thermal radiation is emitted by atmosphere, clouds & Earth surface: 239.15 W/ m2 Atmosphere Earth’s Surface - Ranney’s research: https://gse.berkeley.edu/people/michael-ranney Solar Radiation 1. Michael A. Ranney and Dav Clark, “Climate Change and Conceptual Change: Scientific Information Can Transform Attitudes.” Topics in Cognitive Science 8(2016): 49-75. Thermal Radiation Sources: James Hanson et al., "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications." Science 308 (3 June 2005): 1431-35; Houghton, Global Warming, ch 2 Electromagnetic Spectrum Solar radiation Thermal radiation 78% nitrogen 20.6% oxygen < 1% argon 0.4% water vapor 0.036% carbon dioxide traces gases: Ne, He, Kr, H, O3 Methane, Nitrous Oxide http://academic.engr.arizona.edu/HWR/B rooks/NATS101sec48/lectures/2-62003.ppt 1 9/25/2016 Selected Greenhouse Gases Absorption Spectra of Atmospheric Gases UV Visible Infrared CH4 • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) – Source: Fossil fuel burning, deforestation Anthropogenic increase: 30% Average atmospheric residence time: 500 years N2O O2 & O 3 – Source: Rice cultivation, cattle & sheep ranching, decay from landfills, mining Anthropogenic increase: 145% Average atmospheric residence time: 7-10 years CO2 H2O atmosphere Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) – Source: Industry and agriculture (fertilizers) Anthropogenic increase: 15% Average atmospheric residence time: 140-190 years WAVELENGTH (micrometers) Anthes, p. 55 http://academic.engr.arizona.edu/HWR/Brooks/NATS101sec48/lectures/2-6-2003.ppt http://academic.engr.arizona.edu/HWR/Brooks/NATS101sec48/lectures/2-6-2003.ppt Global Carbon Cycle Carbon Pools Pool Atmosphere Terrestrial Plants Soil Organic matter Ocean Fossil Fuel Depos its Marine Sediments and Sedimentary Rocks Amount in Billions of Metric Tons 578 (as of 1700) - 766 (as of 1999) 540 to 610 1500 to 1600 38,000 to 40,000 4000 66,000,000 to 100,000,000 Carbon is stored on our planet in the following major pools: Carbon is exchanged among the active pools due to various processes – photosynthesis and respiration between the land and the atmosphere, and http://cliveg.bu.edu/courses/estoni diffusion between the ocean and the atmosphere. 3/12 a/myneni-carbon-01.ppt Climate Change • as organic molecules in living and dead organisms found in the biosphere; • as the gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; • as organic matter in soils; • in the lithosphere as fossil fuels and sedimentary rock deposits such as limestone, dolomite and chalk; • in the oceans as dissolved atmospheric carbon dioxide and as calcium carbonate shells in marine organisms. http://cliveg.bu.edu/courses/estonia/mynen i-carbon-01.ppt 2/12 From Horse & Buggy to the Moon 2 9/25/2016 Scientific Consensus Oreskes “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change” - Naomi Oreskes - Analysis of 928 papers published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003 - None of the papers disagreed with the consensus on climate change 1. IPCC, Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf] Scientific Consensus on 4 Key Facts 1. Global warming is real. -The global temperature rose a total of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius over about 5,000 years.1 -In the past century alone, the temperature has climbed 0.7 degrees Celsius (1.4° F), roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming. 1 -Since 1975, the warning rate is roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade. 2 1. 2. Global Warming Trend 1. Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/decadaltem p.php 2016: Warmest Year So Far 1. 2. Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/20160816/ http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/science/nasa-global-temperatures2016.html?_r=1 Scientific Consensus on 4 Key Facts 2. Global warming is caused by human activity. - “Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever.” 1 - “Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, … are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” 1. IPCC, Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf] 3 9/25/2016 Scientific Consensus on 4 Key Facts 3. Even if greenhouse gas emissions completely stop, global warming will continue because of the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. - If greenhouse gas emissions continue, global warming will grow at an escalating pace. - If current trends continue (business as usual), the IPCC predicts that Earth's surface temperatures will increase between 2.5° and 10.4° F by the year 2100, and will continue to increase after that 1. IPCC, Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf] Impacts - Sea Level Rise Scientific Consensus on 4 Key Facts 4. Global warming will have substantial, harmful impacts on human society and the environment - Sea level rise Droughts Excessive rain More powerful storms Ecosystem damage Diseases spread 1. IPCC, Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf] Florida • Rising sea levels (~20 inches by 2100) – Lots of uncertainty (20-90 cm by 2100) – Combination of melting glaciers & thermal expansion of ocean • Subsidence of land – River delta losing sand & sinking – Reduced ground water causing compaction • Impacts – Bangladesh may lose 10-20 % of its habitable land by 2050, displacing 6 to 15 million people – Egypt's Nile delta, Maldive Islands, Marshall Islands, China's east coast, Mississippi River delta Climate Change Impacts - Water • Rainfall patterns will change – Some areas more; most less – California: 15-30% less rain; earlier rain – Proposals to build dams & restore Delta system • Droughts more frequent – In U.S.: southwest & MINK (MO, IA, NE, KS) • Desertification: deserts spread Climate Change Impacts - Ecosystems • Plant & animal ranges shift toward poles or to higher elevations in response to warming – e.g., Pikas moving up mountains – Bark beetles moving north into Rockies – Boreal forests threatened • Animals tend to move faster – Animal-food syncronization • Earlier springs • Disease threats to humans • Food supply: with adaptation, not much change – Change in crops raised (CO2 feeds plants) 4 9/25/2016 Climate Change Impacts - Weather • Hurricanes are predicted to be more powerful − Their energy source is sea temperature 5