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How do futures bear fruit in the present? Dr Angela Wilkinson Futures Director, SSEE Panellists: Ms Kristel van der Elst Professor John Robinson Mr Ged Davis Planet Under Pressure 28th March 2012 The Smith School _______________________________________ Enterprise and environment agenda Convening at the nexus of business, governments and academe Connected challenges Solutions orientated Enabling a transformational impact on environmental changes 2 www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk ‘Collaborative Futures’ at our core _______________________________________ Beyond the single future: predicable or more open plausible and preferable? Beyond the single actor Inertia: change is hard, transition is turbulent Partnerships/ Collaboration Futures Many methods – visioning, scenarios, modelling..... New space for shared learning and strategy: the physical present and virtual and conceptual futures Learning to live with uncertainty Sustainability Beyond the single issue Connected challenges of the anthropocene Future orientation Combining intuition, imagination and rigorous analysis Collaborative futures _______________________________________ Scenario B Big Risks Big Risks Options Options Plan Projects EU value creation model Scenario A Scenarios and models and visioning to inform realistic pathways and identify key milestones Low Carbon Mobility Futures Programme _______________________________________ LEARNING BY DOING FORESIGHT REVIEW SCIENCE UPDATE roadmap study update 10 new themes 3 initial pathways CHANGE 25 case studies review of change theory transition mgmt principles 1 THREE PARALLEL MODULES 25 major studies no systemic understanding identification of big gaps yping Protot PATHFINDER TOOLKIT & PLATFORM 2 3 Furthe r anal ysis 4 5 Orientations Tracks Web-enabled QUANTIFICATION review of existing models quantification of pathways bespoke model development 5 INTEGRATED SOLUTIONS converging & supporting change agents pathfinding towards LCM Learning ‘’with’ futures (not about them)! _______________________________________ Resource Futures work at the World Economic Forum Kristel Van der Elst, Director, Strategic Foresight Team www.weforum.org/issues/strategic-foresight Strategic Foresight at the World Economic Forum Engaging communities in strategic conversations aimed at UNDERSTANDING AND ADDRESSING COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN LONGTERM CHALLENGES. Selected Tools / Methods Scenarios Systems thinking COMMUNITIES SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING Mapping and challenging paradigms and mental models TRUST MAKING SENSE PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATIVE Visioning FUTURES DIVERSITY OF THOUGHT CHALLENGING MENTAL MODELS PARADIGMS ROBUST DECISIONMAKING TRADE-OFFS COMMON UNDERSTANDING 8 Mining & Metals – Scenarios to 2030 Project Objectives Stimulate strategic dialogue between the public and private sectors and civil society on the future sustainability of the global mining and metals sector in economic, social and environmental terms. 9 Mining & Metals – Scenarios to 2030 Project Achievements Catalyzed new and systemic insights on the industry’s most critical sustainability challenges Created a strengthened community of interest, emerging from a safe and insightful dialogue space, through which the major challenges and opportunities, as illustrated in the scenarios, are further addressed Individual stakeholders used the learnings to support their strategic planning in order to promote the sustainability of the industry Green Trade Alliance Rebased Globalism Resource Security 10 Political and economic implications of resource scarcity – Estimates of resource demands in the year 2030 span a large range Projections range from small decreases in total demand to a near-doubling Range of percentage change in demand in 2030 from today There is substantial variation in estimates of resource demand from different assessments Steen (1998) 80 EIA (high growth) 60 WRG (stable irrigation) Agrimonde (GO) 40 20 Foresight (pessimistic) 0 World Water Council WITCH (high abatement) -20 Smit (2009) Energy Food Phosphorus Water Resource Source: Vivid Economics for World Economic Forum 11 Political and economic implications of resource scarcity – Paradigms on Resource Scarcity Different framings of potential futures are influencing the spaces in which one seeks solutions. Paradigm 1: “Depletion, absolute scarcity and radical shifts” “Your paradigm is so intrinsic to your mental process that you are hardly aware of its existence, until you try to communicate with someone with a different paradigm.” Paradigm 2: “Increasing costs, lock-in and economic limits” Paradigm 3: “Resource abundance, substitutability and the power of markets” Paradigm 4: - Donella Meadows “Social injustice, distribution and moral limits” 12 Greenest City Conversations Project Presentation at Planet Under Pressure conference Mar 28, 2012 John Robinson, UBC Cross-channel Evaluation Greenest City Conversations project Exploring Normative Worlds GEA as an example Ged Davis Co-President Global Energy Assessment IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework GHG Emissions Industry, Energy, and Land-based Mitigation Deforestation & Afforestation (modeled on 0.5 x 0.5) NAM OECD PAO WEU EEU REFS FSU MEA AFR ALM LAM SAS PAS ASIA CPA Riahi, etRiahi al. 2007 9 SAS South Asia 1 NAM North America 5 FSU Former Soviet Union 10 PAS Other Pacific Asia 2 LAM Latin America & The Caribbean 6 MEA Middle East & North Africa 11 PAO Pacific OECD 3 WEU Western Europe 7 AFR Sub-Saharan Africa 4 EEU Central & Eastern Europe 8 CPA Centrally Planned Asia & China #16 2007 Climate Discounted Energy System Costs (percent of total GDP) Security Pollution KM17: Riahi et al, 2010 Global Pollution Control Costs (illustrative scenarios by 2030) All scenarios fulfill the pollution/health objective at the stringent level Climate Co-benefit Weak Climate KM17: Riahi et al, 2010 Intermediate Climate Stringent Climate Investments to Achieve High Energy Security Levels (illustrative scenarios by 2030) All scenarios fulfill the energy security objective at the stringent level Climate Co-benefit Weak Climate KM17: Riahi et al, 2010 Intermediate Climate Stringent Climate A (still) emerging field… _______________________________________ ACTOR centric ‘Exploratory’ scenarios, Delphi method, etc. Visioning and backcasting, Scenarios-to-strategy, etc. For CHANGE (actionable options) For INQUIRY (new insights) Scenarios, plus visioning and modelling with actionable options 20 Foresight studies e.g. IPCC scenarios ISSUE focus POSTER SESSION Vulnerability Scenarios and Development Pathways: Advancing Key Components for Comprehensive Climate Change Risk and Adaptation Science Matthias Garschagen & Joern Birkmann • To date strong focus on bio-geo-physical scenarios for climate change hazards • However scenarios for societal development, particularly in terms of the implications for vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking • This is remarkable given that socio-economic development trends at local, sub-national and global scale are decisive for effective adaptation and risk reduction strategies • Scenario development for vulnerability and adaptive capacity is helpful and needed • Integration of different dimensions and scales required • Mix of methods required • First experiences and lessons (e.g. from Vietnam) Source: Garschagen 2011, Schwab 2011 Current Hazards Exposures Vulnerabilities Hazards Exposures etc. migration political (re-) organisation health care insurance systems globalisation / global markets Future Source: M. Garschagen disaster risk management Adaptation needs and options Expected changes in natural and socioeconomic systems industrialisation Adaptive Strategies economic growth demography Current urbanisation Source: M. Garschagen risk awareness accepted level or risk social / political priorities lifestyles disparities internal monetary flows Vulnerabilities ODA Source: MONRE 2009 influence of civil society Future etc. etc. Adaptive Capacities Source: Garschagen & Kraas 2010 Source: Garschagen & Kraas 2010, adopted from Smit & Wandel 2006 [email protected] | [email protected] | +49 228 815 0289 | www.ehs.unu.edu Multi-scale participatory scenario methods as a tool of local population empowerment: case studies in Brazilian Amazonia Aguiar APD, Folhes R, Aguiar D, Araújo, R Amazon River PAE Lago Grande SANTARÉM PA Moju Brazilian Amazonia today is a mosaic of distinct territorial units (Indigenous lands, Conservation units of integral protection and sustainable use, Settlement Projects). Are they sustainable in the long run? Multi-scale participatory scenario methods as a tool of local population empowerment: case studies in Brazilian Amazonia Aguiar APD, Folhes R, Aguiar D, Araújo, R Community scale Territorial Unit scale (settlement) Same axis of discussion at both scales Social organization Infrastructure Land use activites Land conflicts Participation: local population, settlement leaderships, civil society and local government representatives Normative scenarios: desired and undesired visions of the future in 2020 Backcasting exercise to construct trajectories Convergence/divergence analysis between scales Scenarios and visioning as complementary tools Regional multi-stakeholder scenarios process led by CGIAR Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security program (CCAFS) Mixing qualitative and quantitative methods, we combine the development and use of scenarios in many different key contexts: • Scenarios have to continually shift their presentation, become enriched by responding to use contexts • The impacts of scenarios use processes are more defined and more easily tracked. • Scenarios become spaces for continuous shared value creation: new strategies, policies, insights, relationships and networks. J.M. Vervoort, P.J. Ericksen, J.S. Ingram, W. Foerch, M.Chaudhury, P.Thornton, P. Kristjanson Many different use contexts Scenarios: what might happen (context) Visioning: what should happen (actors) Translation to different use contexts Uncertain future Different perspectives: different types of knowledge, experience Scenarios capture alternative futures Improve scenarios’ usefulness through quantification and media Create shared visions for regional future (3) Different perspectives: different needs, aspirations Scenarios enriched based on use contexts Back-casting Feasible through visions, scenarios to robust explore policies and pathways to strategies vision under uncertainty