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1 It’sTooLatetoRun:TimetoFaceUptotheGlobalClimateCrisis Thepaceofglobalclimatechangeisacceleratingsoswiftlythat“globalclimatecrisis”maybestdescribe theperilwefaceandourneedtoconfrontitimmediately.Whatfollowsareafewthoughtsthatcould helpussortoutoursituation,possiblyfreeingourselvestomovetowardsolutions.Iappealespeciallyto thetwofifthsofAmericanswhoalreadyacceptthathumancausedcarbonemissionscreatethechanges thatthreatenthewelfareoftheworld’speoples,eventhoughmosthavenotyetsignificantlyreduced theirowncarbonfootprint.(1) InJune2015theInternationalEnergyAgencyoftheUnitedNationspredictedthatiftheworlddoesnot succeedinradicallyreducinggreenhousegasemissionsby2040(onegenerationfromnow)itwillbe “extremelydifficulttoavoiddangerousconsequences”ofglobalwarming.Ifwefailto,ourchildren, grandchildrenandmanyofusaswellwillfaceincreasinglyharshlives.(2)Weoughttotreatsuchdata asthelikeliestoutcomebyfarifwefailtoimmediatelyanddramaticallyreduceourcarbonemissions. TheseconclusionsarereinforcedbyNASA’sreportofarecordincreaseinEarth’stemperaturefor2015, onethatfarsurpassedtherecordsetthepreviousyear,andreinforcedbyareportjustoutthatevery monthofthepast12setarecordforthatmonth. Americansemit2timesperpersonwhatEuropeans,whoshareourhighstandardoflivingdo,3times perpersonwhattheChinesedo,4.6timestheworldaverageand35timeswhatthepeopleofIndiado. (3)Atthesametime,weremainuniqueinourfinancialandtechnologicalabilitiestostopemitting greenhousegases.Givensuchgrimpredictions,whyisitsodifficultforsomanyofusintheUSto respondtothesewarningsandtakeactiononthescaleneededtoslashourowncarbonfootprint? Itshumannaturetosearchforsolutionsthatrescueusfromfearsome,negativethoughtsthattellus thatslashingfossilfuelusewouldimpingeuponorevendestroyourwayoflife.Useofgeoengineering ispromotedassucharescue.Afederalpanelofscientistsrecommendsasalastresortinjectingmillions oftonsofsulfateparticlesintotheatmospheretodeflectsunlight.(4)However,recentclimate modelingdemonstratesthistechnologyrisksdisruptingtheIndianmonsoonseasonandfurtherdrying outtheAfricanSahel(5). Ifearwecouldturntogeoengineeringasafirstratherthanlastresorttosaveusfromhavingtodeeply cutourownemissions.Ifwedidso,wouldanymotivationremaintocutratherthancontinueto increaseourgreenhousegasemissions,therebypromptingeverstrongergeochemicalfixes?What decisionmakerswouldbeincharge?Whowouldchoosethem?Whataretherisksforclimate catastrophe? Carbonstoragetechnologiesaimtoresolvetheclimatecrisisbyforcingbackintotheearththecarbon weemit.TherecentParisConferenceonClimateChangecountsonmassiveuseofthistechnologyto meetthetargetsitsetsforreducingatmosphericCO2.Thisisprobablyanactofwishfulthinking(6). Mostattemptedprojectshavealreadybeenabandonedastoocomplexandexpensive.Developing feasiblewaystocapturecarbonoughttocontinue.ButtheIEApredictsthatby2045,carboncapture andstoragewouldremoveonly2%oftotalatmosphericcarbon(7).Thistechnologyisunlikelytosave usfromeliminatingmostofourownfossilfueluse. Ifeartheworldwillreplacefalteringeffortstoeliminateemissionswiththousandsofhastilybuilt nuclearpowerplants,despitealmostinevitablemeltdowns.Asahotterclimatedepletesfoodandwater 2 resources,weriskresourcewarsandterroristattacksinvolvingnuclearweapons.Failingtophaseout ourcarbonemissionswillleaveuswithonlythemostdangerousandinvasivetechnologiestosaveus. Phasingoutfossilfuelswillcausesomejoblossesanddisruptiontooureconomyasitisnowstructured. Yetthelongerwedelay,thegreaterthedisruptionwewillcausewhenwefinallydocommittodeep cuts,compoundedbyfurtherlossesinthemeantimeofresourcesweneedforsurvival.Wecanweigh theharmtooureconomyagainstthebenefitstoitofmassconstructionandinstallationofalternative energysystemsandintensiveweatherization.Asweknow,emergingwind,solarandenergystorage technologiesarebecomingcompetitive.Ifconsumersandfossilfuelcompanieshadtoabsorbthetrue costtohumansandEarthofconsumingfossilfuels,renewableswouldwinhandsdown. Relyingonthemyththattechnologycansaveusisdifferentthandevelopingtechnologiesthatwork handinhandwithus.Technologyaspartneraswecontinuetodevelopitwillplayagreaterroletoward achievingthegoalofceasingouremissions,butonlyaslongaswedoourfullpart.Itdoesappearthat someespeciallypromisingemergingtechnologieswilltakeyearsmoretodevelopandprovethemselves (8).Evenso,wealreadypossessthetechnologicalandeconomicmeanstoceaserelyingonfossilfuels. Attherootoftheclimatecrisistodayispoliticallyandideologicallyinfluencedprofitseeking,anda consumingpublicnotasyetreadytotakethebigstepsthatreallycounttophaseoutemissions. Cuttingoutgreenhousegasemissionsdoesnotspelldeprivation.It’samythtobelievethatitwill.Green energycansubstituteforfossilfuelsinoneormoremajorareasofenergyconsumptioninthelivesof mostofuseventoday,ascanintensiveweatherization. ---------------------------------------------------------- Manyofusacceptinourheadsthatfailingtocurbgreenhousegasseswillcauseacceleratingharmover thenextfewdecades.Butitcanremainhardtoacceptthatitisnotonlystatisticalchildrenwewill harm,butourownchildrenandgrandchildrenaswell. Whatkindoffuturedowewantforourchildren?Ofcoursewehopetheywillthrive.Butcanwe transformthosehopesintoaresolvetocontributeallwecantopassdowntothemaworldwherethey canthriveratherthansuffer? Whenclimatologistswarnofdisastrousover-heatingoftheEarth,allowourselvestoletthatsinkinasa fact.Ifwedon’t,wewillcontributetocondemningourownchildrenandgrandchildrenalongwithevery otherchildtotheeffectsofworldwidecropfailuresasriversandaquifersdryup,farmlandsturninto desert,heatedoceansturntooacidictoyieldfood,risingoceanslevelsfloodcities,andcoastal farmlandsbecometoosalinizedtogrowfood. Howwouldourchildrenandgrandchildrenlookuponparentsandgrandparentswhofailedtoheed decadesofwarnings,butcouldhavedonebyacceptingmodestsacrificeandsufferingcomparedtothe hardshipsgenerationaftergenerationofourdescendantswouldendure?Whenitcomesdowntowhat welovemostasmeasuredbywhatactionswetake,willwerobthemoftheirheritageinorderto maintainawayoflifethatstudyafterstudyconcludesmakesusnohappierthanourforebears?It’sin thenatureofeverygenerationtojudgetheactionsofthegenerationsthatcamebefore,andifbythat standardwedotoolittle,ourdescendantswilljudgeusharshly. 3 WecanrelinquishaspectsofourlifestylethatpollutetheEarthandjeopardizeourfuturebycommitting ourselvestonolongerseekfromEarthmorethanitcaneitherprovideorabsorb.Inthebigpictureof Earthandhumanityhowmuchofalossisthatreally?Isn’titagifttoourchildren,toallchildren everywhere,tothecreaturesandplantsandtheEarthitself,embodyingallthatmakesourlivesonEarth possible? Wecouldchoosetoregardslashingourhouseholdcarbonemissionsasaburdeneithertoberefusedor bornereluctantly,oralternativelyasachancetogivebacktoEarthingratitudesomeofwhatithas freelygivenus.Manyofusdon’tthinktwiceaboutgivingtoworthycauses;wewanttobegenerous. We’renotusedtogivingtoarecipientwhodoesn’ttalkinwordsbutwhonurturesuswithair,foodand watereverymomentofourlives. Mostofusaffirmhumanlifeandmeantocausenoharm.Yet,mostofuswhoarefortunateinourlives burnhighlevelsoffossilfuelstoachieveourgoalsorattainpreferredlifestyles.Fromourattachments comesavolumeofemittedcarbonthatcausesgreatharm.Oncewedocometoacceptthatthecarbon weburntodaycontributestoclosingoffafutureforeveryoneonEarth,wecangeneratethecourageto slashourpersonalfossilfueluse. Iknowfamilieswhohavedeeplycuttheircarbonfootprint.Inotenolossofhappinessamongthose makingthatchoice.Isenseinsteadthattheyhaveliftedaburdenuponthemselvesbyliftingaburden theyonceplacedontheplanet. ----------------------------------------------------- Weconsumersgenerate70%ofgreenhousegassesemittedintheUS.Morethangovernment,more thanindustryorthemilitary,we,byourownpersonaldecisionscollectivelymakethemost consequentialchoicesabouthowmuchfossilfueltheUSconsumes. TheIEAreportsthatiftheworldfailstoendnearlyallfossilfuelusewithinthenext30yearsorso, attemptstolaunchlastminuteeffortsaswecloseinonthattimewouldcometoolate.Atmosphereand oceansoverloadedwithcarbonwouldhavealreadyreachedanirreversiblesaturationpoint(9).We needtofront-loadourownreductions.Reducingnowwilllessentheriskofclimatecatastrophefar morethanwaitingyearsfromnowtotakethesameaction. TheUSresponsetotheclimatecrisissofardoeslittletoinspireconfidencethatthecountrywilldoits parttoavertclimatecatastrophe.Over30yearsagowhenmostclimatologistswerealreadywarning thatgreenhousegasemissionswerethreateninghumanity’sfutureandmustbeslashed,wedidnotact. WescarcelyactedfollowingthedirewarningsportrayedinAlGore’s2006film.Goingforward,wehave about3decadeslefttofinishajobwe’vebarelybegundespiteallthetimewe’vehadtodoit. RonaldReagandefeatedPresidentJimmyCarterin1980inpartbecausevoterswantedtopunishCarter. Byurgingustocutbackonourpersonaluseoffossilfuels,Cartercommittedpoliticalsuicidebydaring tosaythatlimitstoconsumptionexistandthatwewereconsumingtoomuch.Reagan’sremovalof Carter’ssolarpanelsfromtheWhiteHouseroofsymbolizedatriumphantnewerainwhichtheprivate goodoftheindividualreignedsupreme.Consumersandbigbusinessweredeclaredfreetoproduceand consumewithoutlimit.Relentlessunderminingofthetruthaboutdamagingclimatechangethattofix requiredlimitsonconsumerism,remainsessentialtosurvivaloftheideologyoffreemarketcapitalism. Theoutcomeisdecadesofwastedopportunitytolessentheimpactofglobalwarming. 4 Eventoday,mainstreammediatypicallyavoidsthetopicofhouseholdcutsbecauseit’sviewedasa “downer”thatsmacksofconsumerslosingautonomyandfacinglifestyledeprivation.I’veobserved privateconversationsfavoringfossilfuelcutbacksdryupwhenthetopiccomesaroundtowhoorwhat isgoingtodothecuttingback.Private,perhapsembarrassed,resistancetoacceptingthat“cuttingback meansmycuttingbacktoo”stillrunsdeep. Whileconsumerdecisionsabouthowmuchfossilfueltheyintendtoconsumearemadeinprivate,the consequencesofthosedecisionsareverypublic.Iamaskingthatwefullyabsorbthelinkagebetween dangerousglobaloverheatingandthefactthatinourprivateliveswecollectivelyemitthelargestshare ofourcountry’senormousemissions.Reductionsonthescaleneededcan’ttakeplaceunlesswe consumersplayabigpartinthateffort. It’sriskyinoursocietytoraiseissuesthatinvolveacceptingpersonalresponsibility.Itcanarouse negativeresponsesfrompeoplewhoperceivetheyarebeingnegativelyjudgedontheirwayoflifeand whofearimminentcoercion.IrealizedIcouldnotsoft-pedaltheimmediateseriousnessofwhatwe face,whileremainingawarethatmuchasItrynotto,Imaystilloffend.Yetwherewillweallwindupif wecocoonourselvesandothersfromhardfactsforfearofoffendingpeopleandpowerfulinterests? Decadesofdeliberateefforttoshrinkandshriveltheopportunityforrealdiscussionoftheclimate threatgoestotheheartofthedamagedonebytheRight,whichcreateda“Catch22”atmospherethat atonetimethreatenedtoshutdowndiscussiononclimatechangealtogether. Thelongeradedicatedtoprovidingfortheindividual,privategoodmightbegivingwaytoagreater emphasisonprovidingforthecommongood.Butachievingthatrequiresourfosteringacommonwillto respondtoneedsweshareincommon,nowheremoresothanbyturningtofacetheclimatecrisiswith fullintenttoresolveittotheextentpossible.Thisisagoodtimetoletgoofanyresidual,negative conditioningthatcouldweakenourinvolvementascitizensfightingharmfulclimatechange, conditioningthatcouldstillgetinthewayoffresh,groundedthinkingandactionaboutit. Ifweavoidinitiatingmassscaleeffortsofourowntoreduceouremissions,andinsteadwaituntilwe canpushitontogovernmentwhenandifitisfinallyready,publicturmoilsetoffbyoppositiontocarbon taxeswillriskfurtherdelaysastheclocktickson.However,studiesshowthatwhenacertainnumberof residentsinagivenneighborhooderectsolarpanelsorintensivelyweatherize,it’sanendorsementfor goinggreenthatconvincesmanyotherstofollowsuit.Themorewedoonourownnow,thebetterable wewillbetoaccustomlargeswathsofAmericanstograduallyacceptgreenenergy’spresenceandits benefits,therebyreducinginadvancesomeoppositiontofuturegovernmentinvolvement. ------------------------------------------------- AttheParisConferenceonclimatechangetheObamaadministrationcommittedtoreducingcarbon emissions.ButCongressandbigbusinessdemandedandgottheConferencetobackoffonany mandatedtimesoramountsbywhichemissionswouldbereduced,aswellasinspectionstoensure compliance. Wemayhavelittlepowertoinfluencegovernmenttodoitsjobforthetimebeing,butwearenot powerlesstotakeactionourselves.IflargenumbersofAmericanswhounderstandthehazardsweface wouldforgeaheadnowandslashourownemissions,Ibelievewecouldquicklyreduceourcountry’s 5 useonanamplescaleforasubstantialperiodoftime.Thatwouldbuymoretimetobuildapolitical systemcapableoffollowingthrough. Easilysaid,buthowdowedoit?Aconjunctionofrecenteventscouldtransformourresponse.Isense thatmanypreviouslyuninvolvedAmericansarenewlyshakenbythecascadeofnewevidencethatthe climatecrisisisnolongerfaroffinthefuturebutiseruptinginourmidst.Many,confused,even frightenedbyacrisisnewtotheirlifeexperiencewantleadershipandasenseofdirectionourpolitical systemfailstoprovide. Theenvironmental/climateactionmovementcanhelpfillthatvoid.Theworldneeds thestrongestresponsethatmovementiscapableof;achievable,Ibelievethroughgreatercollective action.Acoalitionwithanationalreachofferingsustainedandunitedmessagingencouragingthe broadestpossiblerangeofactionwilldrawinmanymorepeopleandprovidearesponsemore commensuratetothethreat. TheBernieSanderscampaignisanindependentmassmovement.Byraisinghugesumsofmoneyfrom millionsofsmallcontributorsdrawntothemovement,ithassucceededinescapingapoliticalsystem chronicallyindebttocontributionsbyinterestsopposedtocounteringtheclimatecrisis.Itsmomentum andinfluencegiveshopethatourpoliticalsystemwilleventuallyrespond. Yet,tostressagain,gainingthoseearly,crucialbreakthroughreductionsinouremissionsisessential.It dependsonourquicklyreducingourpersonalfossilfueluse.AfterdippingduringtheGreatRecession, USemissionshaveagainrisenthepast3years.Doingthemathtofindoutwhichwayandhowfastthe numbersarechangingiswhatcountsintheend,andwehaveyettotakeenoughactiontoregistera downturn. ----------------------------------------------------- Despiteitslimitations,theParisAgreementsdoprovideafoundationforpracticingcooperativeefforts amongnationstobuildtrust.Butdevelopingatraditionofcooperationwillrequireeachnationto developatrackrecordofitsownemissionsreductionstoproveseriousintent. Today,wholepopulationsbarelyabletoaffordbicyclesarelosingtheirlandandlivelihoodstofloodedoutcoastlinesandadvancingdeserts,aleadingcausebeingourowncentury-longhabitofdrivingbig cars,livinginbighousesandbuyingaphantasmagoriaofgoodsandexperiences.Unlessemissionsare dramaticallycutby2030(14yearsfromnow),itispredictedthatthecycleofmassdisplacementand migrationwillbecomepermanent(10). It’sunlikelytheworldcouldworktogetherifweintheUScontinueouroldways.Collaborativeefforts cansucceedonlyiftheprocessisexperiencedasfairandjust.Itspower,itshistoricalcentrality,its outsizedgreenhousegascontributionsandreputationforprofligacyensurethatwhatwedecidetodoin theUSwillheavilyinfluencedecisionsotherbiggreenhousegasemittersmake.Whilenonationcan controlanother’sdecisions,andit’spossibleamajoremittercouldemergeasa“spoiler,”wecanreduce thatriskbyinitiatingvigorousactionsthatinviteajointeffortaroundtheworldtofreeitfromfossil fuels. 6 ForthefirsttimeinhumanhistoryEarthcannolongerhandlethesheervolumeofgaseousandother wastesevenbillionofusbombarditwithandstillprovidethosecertainfavorableconditionsthat enabledhumanstopopulatetheEarthinthemassivenumberswehavetoday. Wehumanshaveadaptedmanytimestodauntingchallengesarisingoverthecourseofourspecies’ history.Wecanadapttotheclimatecrisisaswell.Butwewillhavetoadaptinafundamentallydifferent way.Eversinceweemergedfromourlongagolivesashuntergatherers,mosthumanshaveturned awayfromtheiroriginalknowledgethatEarthisoursourceoflife,insteadturningitintoanobjecttobe exploited.Today,reawakeninganunderstandingofourtruerelationshipwithEarthwillbekeytoour surviving.Ibelievewecanemergethehappierforit. Fromonewhohastravelledjusthalfwayhimselftoazeroemissionfuture,Ithankyouforreadingthis. DougBowen,PorterMaine,6/28/[email protected] 1.ReportedbytheNewYorkTimesinearly2015. 2.ReportsinNov2015andJune2016byInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)oftheUN.Reportsbythe IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,theEPA,NASA,andNOAAdrawsimilarconclusions. 3.IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangereportaspublishedintheJuly/AugustissueoftheSierra ClubMagazine. 4.ReportedintheJune30thissueofTampaBayTimes. 5.4/16articlebyDavidWolfe,TheHill,WashingtonDC 6.ArticleintheJan.2016issueofScientificAmerican:“TheCarbonCaptureFallacy.” 7.Nov.2015IEAreport. 8.AthemeinanumberofarticlesIreaddealingwithfuturetechnologyandglobalwarming. 9.FromJune2015IEAreport 10.FromJune2015IEAreport