Download It`s Too Late to Run - Insight Community of Southern Maine

1
It’sTooLatetoRun:TimetoFaceUptotheGlobalClimateCrisis
Thepaceofglobalclimatechangeisacceleratingsoswiftlythat“globalclimatecrisis”maybestdescribe
theperilwefaceandourneedtoconfrontitimmediately.Whatfollowsareafewthoughtsthatcould
helpussortoutoursituation,possiblyfreeingourselvestomovetowardsolutions.Iappealespeciallyto
thetwofifthsofAmericanswhoalreadyacceptthathumancausedcarbonemissionscreatethechanges
thatthreatenthewelfareoftheworld’speoples,eventhoughmosthavenotyetsignificantlyreduced
theirowncarbonfootprint.(1)
InJune2015theInternationalEnergyAgencyoftheUnitedNationspredictedthatiftheworlddoesnot
succeedinradicallyreducinggreenhousegasemissionsby2040(onegenerationfromnow)itwillbe
“extremelydifficulttoavoiddangerousconsequences”ofglobalwarming.Ifwefailto,ourchildren,
grandchildrenandmanyofusaswellwillfaceincreasinglyharshlives.(2)Weoughttotreatsuchdata
asthelikeliestoutcomebyfarifwefailtoimmediatelyanddramaticallyreduceourcarbonemissions.
TheseconclusionsarereinforcedbyNASA’sreportofarecordincreaseinEarth’stemperaturefor2015,
onethatfarsurpassedtherecordsetthepreviousyear,andreinforcedbyareportjustoutthatevery
monthofthepast12setarecordforthatmonth.
Americansemit2timesperpersonwhatEuropeans,whoshareourhighstandardoflivingdo,3times
perpersonwhattheChinesedo,4.6timestheworldaverageand35timeswhatthepeopleofIndiado.
(3)Atthesametime,weremainuniqueinourfinancialandtechnologicalabilitiestostopemitting
greenhousegases.Givensuchgrimpredictions,whyisitsodifficultforsomanyofusintheUSto
respondtothesewarningsandtakeactiononthescaleneededtoslashourowncarbonfootprint?
Itshumannaturetosearchforsolutionsthatrescueusfromfearsome,negativethoughtsthattellus
thatslashingfossilfuelusewouldimpingeuponorevendestroyourwayoflife.Useofgeoengineering
ispromotedassucharescue.Afederalpanelofscientistsrecommendsasalastresortinjectingmillions
oftonsofsulfateparticlesintotheatmospheretodeflectsunlight.(4)However,recentclimate
modelingdemonstratesthistechnologyrisksdisruptingtheIndianmonsoonseasonandfurtherdrying
outtheAfricanSahel(5).
Ifearwecouldturntogeoengineeringasafirstratherthanlastresorttosaveusfromhavingtodeeply
cutourownemissions.Ifwedidso,wouldanymotivationremaintocutratherthancontinueto
increaseourgreenhousegasemissions,therebypromptingeverstrongergeochemicalfixes?What
decisionmakerswouldbeincharge?Whowouldchoosethem?Whataretherisksforclimate
catastrophe?
Carbonstoragetechnologiesaimtoresolvetheclimatecrisisbyforcingbackintotheearththecarbon
weemit.TherecentParisConferenceonClimateChangecountsonmassiveuseofthistechnologyto
meetthetargetsitsetsforreducingatmosphericCO2.Thisisprobablyanactofwishfulthinking(6).
Mostattemptedprojectshavealreadybeenabandonedastoocomplexandexpensive.Developing
feasiblewaystocapturecarbonoughttocontinue.ButtheIEApredictsthatby2045,carboncapture
andstoragewouldremoveonly2%oftotalatmosphericcarbon(7).Thistechnologyisunlikelytosave
usfromeliminatingmostofourownfossilfueluse.
Ifeartheworldwillreplacefalteringeffortstoeliminateemissionswiththousandsofhastilybuilt
nuclearpowerplants,despitealmostinevitablemeltdowns.Asahotterclimatedepletesfoodandwater
2
resources,weriskresourcewarsandterroristattacksinvolvingnuclearweapons.Failingtophaseout
ourcarbonemissionswillleaveuswithonlythemostdangerousandinvasivetechnologiestosaveus.
Phasingoutfossilfuelswillcausesomejoblossesanddisruptiontooureconomyasitisnowstructured.
Yetthelongerwedelay,thegreaterthedisruptionwewillcausewhenwefinallydocommittodeep
cuts,compoundedbyfurtherlossesinthemeantimeofresourcesweneedforsurvival.Wecanweigh
theharmtooureconomyagainstthebenefitstoitofmassconstructionandinstallationofalternative
energysystemsandintensiveweatherization.Asweknow,emergingwind,solarandenergystorage
technologiesarebecomingcompetitive.Ifconsumersandfossilfuelcompanieshadtoabsorbthetrue
costtohumansandEarthofconsumingfossilfuels,renewableswouldwinhandsdown.
Relyingonthemyththattechnologycansaveusisdifferentthandevelopingtechnologiesthatwork
handinhandwithus.Technologyaspartneraswecontinuetodevelopitwillplayagreaterroletoward
achievingthegoalofceasingouremissions,butonlyaslongaswedoourfullpart.Itdoesappearthat
someespeciallypromisingemergingtechnologieswilltakeyearsmoretodevelopandprovethemselves
(8).Evenso,wealreadypossessthetechnologicalandeconomicmeanstoceaserelyingonfossilfuels.
Attherootoftheclimatecrisistodayispoliticallyandideologicallyinfluencedprofitseeking,anda
consumingpublicnotasyetreadytotakethebigstepsthatreallycounttophaseoutemissions.
Cuttingoutgreenhousegasemissionsdoesnotspelldeprivation.It’samythtobelievethatitwill.Green
energycansubstituteforfossilfuelsinoneormoremajorareasofenergyconsumptioninthelivesof
mostofuseventoday,ascanintensiveweatherization.
----------------------------------------------------------
Manyofusacceptinourheadsthatfailingtocurbgreenhousegasseswillcauseacceleratingharmover
thenextfewdecades.Butitcanremainhardtoacceptthatitisnotonlystatisticalchildrenwewill
harm,butourownchildrenandgrandchildrenaswell.
Whatkindoffuturedowewantforourchildren?Ofcoursewehopetheywillthrive.Butcanwe
transformthosehopesintoaresolvetocontributeallwecantopassdowntothemaworldwherethey
canthriveratherthansuffer?
Whenclimatologistswarnofdisastrousover-heatingoftheEarth,allowourselvestoletthatsinkinasa
fact.Ifwedon’t,wewillcontributetocondemningourownchildrenandgrandchildrenalongwithevery
otherchildtotheeffectsofworldwidecropfailuresasriversandaquifersdryup,farmlandsturninto
desert,heatedoceansturntooacidictoyieldfood,risingoceanslevelsfloodcities,andcoastal
farmlandsbecometoosalinizedtogrowfood.
Howwouldourchildrenandgrandchildrenlookuponparentsandgrandparentswhofailedtoheed
decadesofwarnings,butcouldhavedonebyacceptingmodestsacrificeandsufferingcomparedtothe
hardshipsgenerationaftergenerationofourdescendantswouldendure?Whenitcomesdowntowhat
welovemostasmeasuredbywhatactionswetake,willwerobthemoftheirheritageinorderto
maintainawayoflifethatstudyafterstudyconcludesmakesusnohappierthanourforebears?It’sin
thenatureofeverygenerationtojudgetheactionsofthegenerationsthatcamebefore,andifbythat
standardwedotoolittle,ourdescendantswilljudgeusharshly.
3
WecanrelinquishaspectsofourlifestylethatpollutetheEarthandjeopardizeourfuturebycommitting
ourselvestonolongerseekfromEarthmorethanitcaneitherprovideorabsorb.Inthebigpictureof
Earthandhumanityhowmuchofalossisthatreally?Isn’titagifttoourchildren,toallchildren
everywhere,tothecreaturesandplantsandtheEarthitself,embodyingallthatmakesourlivesonEarth
possible?
Wecouldchoosetoregardslashingourhouseholdcarbonemissionsasaburdeneithertoberefusedor
bornereluctantly,oralternativelyasachancetogivebacktoEarthingratitudesomeofwhatithas
freelygivenus.Manyofusdon’tthinktwiceaboutgivingtoworthycauses;wewanttobegenerous.
We’renotusedtogivingtoarecipientwhodoesn’ttalkinwordsbutwhonurturesuswithair,foodand
watereverymomentofourlives.
Mostofusaffirmhumanlifeandmeantocausenoharm.Yet,mostofuswhoarefortunateinourlives
burnhighlevelsoffossilfuelstoachieveourgoalsorattainpreferredlifestyles.Fromourattachments
comesavolumeofemittedcarbonthatcausesgreatharm.Oncewedocometoacceptthatthecarbon
weburntodaycontributestoclosingoffafutureforeveryoneonEarth,wecangeneratethecourageto
slashourpersonalfossilfueluse.
Iknowfamilieswhohavedeeplycuttheircarbonfootprint.Inotenolossofhappinessamongthose
makingthatchoice.Isenseinsteadthattheyhaveliftedaburdenuponthemselvesbyliftingaburden
theyonceplacedontheplanet.
-----------------------------------------------------
Weconsumersgenerate70%ofgreenhousegassesemittedintheUS.Morethangovernment,more
thanindustryorthemilitary,we,byourownpersonaldecisionscollectivelymakethemost
consequentialchoicesabouthowmuchfossilfueltheUSconsumes.
TheIEAreportsthatiftheworldfailstoendnearlyallfossilfuelusewithinthenext30yearsorso,
attemptstolaunchlastminuteeffortsaswecloseinonthattimewouldcometoolate.Atmosphereand
oceansoverloadedwithcarbonwouldhavealreadyreachedanirreversiblesaturationpoint(9).We
needtofront-loadourownreductions.Reducingnowwilllessentheriskofclimatecatastrophefar
morethanwaitingyearsfromnowtotakethesameaction.
TheUSresponsetotheclimatecrisissofardoeslittletoinspireconfidencethatthecountrywilldoits
parttoavertclimatecatastrophe.Over30yearsagowhenmostclimatologistswerealreadywarning
thatgreenhousegasemissionswerethreateninghumanity’sfutureandmustbeslashed,wedidnotact.
WescarcelyactedfollowingthedirewarningsportrayedinAlGore’s2006film.Goingforward,wehave
about3decadeslefttofinishajobwe’vebarelybegundespiteallthetimewe’vehadtodoit.
RonaldReagandefeatedPresidentJimmyCarterin1980inpartbecausevoterswantedtopunishCarter.
Byurgingustocutbackonourpersonaluseoffossilfuels,Cartercommittedpoliticalsuicidebydaring
tosaythatlimitstoconsumptionexistandthatwewereconsumingtoomuch.Reagan’sremovalof
Carter’ssolarpanelsfromtheWhiteHouseroofsymbolizedatriumphantnewerainwhichtheprivate
goodoftheindividualreignedsupreme.Consumersandbigbusinessweredeclaredfreetoproduceand
consumewithoutlimit.Relentlessunderminingofthetruthaboutdamagingclimatechangethattofix
requiredlimitsonconsumerism,remainsessentialtosurvivaloftheideologyoffreemarketcapitalism.
Theoutcomeisdecadesofwastedopportunitytolessentheimpactofglobalwarming.
4
Eventoday,mainstreammediatypicallyavoidsthetopicofhouseholdcutsbecauseit’sviewedasa
“downer”thatsmacksofconsumerslosingautonomyandfacinglifestyledeprivation.I’veobserved
privateconversationsfavoringfossilfuelcutbacksdryupwhenthetopiccomesaroundtowhoorwhat
isgoingtodothecuttingback.Private,perhapsembarrassed,resistancetoacceptingthat“cuttingback
meansmycuttingbacktoo”stillrunsdeep.
Whileconsumerdecisionsabouthowmuchfossilfueltheyintendtoconsumearemadeinprivate,the
consequencesofthosedecisionsareverypublic.Iamaskingthatwefullyabsorbthelinkagebetween
dangerousglobaloverheatingandthefactthatinourprivateliveswecollectivelyemitthelargestshare
ofourcountry’senormousemissions.Reductionsonthescaleneededcan’ttakeplaceunlesswe
consumersplayabigpartinthateffort.
It’sriskyinoursocietytoraiseissuesthatinvolveacceptingpersonalresponsibility.Itcanarouse
negativeresponsesfrompeoplewhoperceivetheyarebeingnegativelyjudgedontheirwayoflifeand
whofearimminentcoercion.IrealizedIcouldnotsoft-pedaltheimmediateseriousnessofwhatwe
face,whileremainingawarethatmuchasItrynotto,Imaystilloffend.Yetwherewillweallwindupif
wecocoonourselvesandothersfromhardfactsforfearofoffendingpeopleandpowerfulinterests?
Decadesofdeliberateefforttoshrinkandshriveltheopportunityforrealdiscussionoftheclimate
threatgoestotheheartofthedamagedonebytheRight,whichcreateda“Catch22”atmospherethat
atonetimethreatenedtoshutdowndiscussiononclimatechangealtogether.
Thelongeradedicatedtoprovidingfortheindividual,privategoodmightbegivingwaytoagreater
emphasisonprovidingforthecommongood.Butachievingthatrequiresourfosteringacommonwillto
respondtoneedsweshareincommon,nowheremoresothanbyturningtofacetheclimatecrisiswith
fullintenttoresolveittotheextentpossible.Thisisagoodtimetoletgoofanyresidual,negative
conditioningthatcouldweakenourinvolvementascitizensfightingharmfulclimatechange,
conditioningthatcouldstillgetinthewayoffresh,groundedthinkingandactionaboutit.
Ifweavoidinitiatingmassscaleeffortsofourowntoreduceouremissions,andinsteadwaituntilwe
canpushitontogovernmentwhenandifitisfinallyready,publicturmoilsetoffbyoppositiontocarbon
taxeswillriskfurtherdelaysastheclocktickson.However,studiesshowthatwhenacertainnumberof
residentsinagivenneighborhooderectsolarpanelsorintensivelyweatherize,it’sanendorsementfor
goinggreenthatconvincesmanyotherstofollowsuit.Themorewedoonourownnow,thebetterable
wewillbetoaccustomlargeswathsofAmericanstograduallyacceptgreenenergy’spresenceandits
benefits,therebyreducinginadvancesomeoppositiontofuturegovernmentinvolvement.
-------------------------------------------------
AttheParisConferenceonclimatechangetheObamaadministrationcommittedtoreducingcarbon
emissions.ButCongressandbigbusinessdemandedandgottheConferencetobackoffonany
mandatedtimesoramountsbywhichemissionswouldbereduced,aswellasinspectionstoensure
compliance.
Wemayhavelittlepowertoinfluencegovernmenttodoitsjobforthetimebeing,butwearenot
powerlesstotakeactionourselves.IflargenumbersofAmericanswhounderstandthehazardsweface
wouldforgeaheadnowandslashourownemissions,Ibelievewecouldquicklyreduceourcountry’s
5
useonanamplescaleforasubstantialperiodoftime.Thatwouldbuymoretimetobuildapolitical
systemcapableoffollowingthrough.
Easilysaid,buthowdowedoit?Aconjunctionofrecenteventscouldtransformourresponse.Isense
thatmanypreviouslyuninvolvedAmericansarenewlyshakenbythecascadeofnewevidencethatthe
climatecrisisisnolongerfaroffinthefuturebutiseruptinginourmidst.Many,confused,even
frightenedbyacrisisnewtotheirlifeexperiencewantleadershipandasenseofdirectionourpolitical
systemfailstoprovide.
Theenvironmental/climateactionmovementcanhelpfillthatvoid.Theworldneeds
thestrongestresponsethatmovementiscapableof;achievable,Ibelievethroughgreatercollective
action.Acoalitionwithanationalreachofferingsustainedandunitedmessagingencouragingthe
broadestpossiblerangeofactionwilldrawinmanymorepeopleandprovidearesponsemore
commensuratetothethreat.
TheBernieSanderscampaignisanindependentmassmovement.Byraisinghugesumsofmoneyfrom
millionsofsmallcontributorsdrawntothemovement,ithassucceededinescapingapoliticalsystem
chronicallyindebttocontributionsbyinterestsopposedtocounteringtheclimatecrisis.Itsmomentum
andinfluencegiveshopethatourpoliticalsystemwilleventuallyrespond.
Yet,tostressagain,gainingthoseearly,crucialbreakthroughreductionsinouremissionsisessential.It
dependsonourquicklyreducingourpersonalfossilfueluse.AfterdippingduringtheGreatRecession,
USemissionshaveagainrisenthepast3years.Doingthemathtofindoutwhichwayandhowfastthe
numbersarechangingiswhatcountsintheend,andwehaveyettotakeenoughactiontoregistera
downturn.
-----------------------------------------------------
Despiteitslimitations,theParisAgreementsdoprovideafoundationforpracticingcooperativeefforts
amongnationstobuildtrust.Butdevelopingatraditionofcooperationwillrequireeachnationto
developatrackrecordofitsownemissionsreductionstoproveseriousintent.
Today,wholepopulationsbarelyabletoaffordbicyclesarelosingtheirlandandlivelihoodstofloodedoutcoastlinesandadvancingdeserts,aleadingcausebeingourowncentury-longhabitofdrivingbig
cars,livinginbighousesandbuyingaphantasmagoriaofgoodsandexperiences.Unlessemissionsare
dramaticallycutby2030(14yearsfromnow),itispredictedthatthecycleofmassdisplacementand
migrationwillbecomepermanent(10).
It’sunlikelytheworldcouldworktogetherifweintheUScontinueouroldways.Collaborativeefforts
cansucceedonlyiftheprocessisexperiencedasfairandjust.Itspower,itshistoricalcentrality,its
outsizedgreenhousegascontributionsandreputationforprofligacyensurethatwhatwedecidetodoin
theUSwillheavilyinfluencedecisionsotherbiggreenhousegasemittersmake.Whilenonationcan
controlanother’sdecisions,andit’spossibleamajoremittercouldemergeasa“spoiler,”wecanreduce
thatriskbyinitiatingvigorousactionsthatinviteajointeffortaroundtheworldtofreeitfromfossil
fuels.
6
ForthefirsttimeinhumanhistoryEarthcannolongerhandlethesheervolumeofgaseousandother
wastesevenbillionofusbombarditwithandstillprovidethosecertainfavorableconditionsthat
enabledhumanstopopulatetheEarthinthemassivenumberswehavetoday.
Wehumanshaveadaptedmanytimestodauntingchallengesarisingoverthecourseofourspecies’
history.Wecanadapttotheclimatecrisisaswell.Butwewillhavetoadaptinafundamentallydifferent
way.Eversinceweemergedfromourlongagolivesashuntergatherers,mosthumanshaveturned
awayfromtheiroriginalknowledgethatEarthisoursourceoflife,insteadturningitintoanobjecttobe
exploited.Today,reawakeninganunderstandingofourtruerelationshipwithEarthwillbekeytoour
surviving.Ibelievewecanemergethehappierforit.
Fromonewhohastravelledjusthalfwayhimselftoazeroemissionfuture,Ithankyouforreadingthis.
DougBowen,PorterMaine,6/28/[email protected]
1.ReportedbytheNewYorkTimesinearly2015.
2.ReportsinNov2015andJune2016byInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)oftheUN.Reportsbythe
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,theEPA,NASA,andNOAAdrawsimilarconclusions.
3.IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangereportaspublishedintheJuly/AugustissueoftheSierra
ClubMagazine.
4.ReportedintheJune30thissueofTampaBayTimes.
5.4/16articlebyDavidWolfe,TheHill,WashingtonDC
6.ArticleintheJan.2016issueofScientificAmerican:“TheCarbonCaptureFallacy.”
7.Nov.2015IEAreport.
8.AthemeinanumberofarticlesIreaddealingwithfuturetechnologyandglobalwarming.
9.FromJune2015IEAreport
10.FromJune2015IEAreport