Download Which early works are cited most frequently in climate change

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Which early works are cited most frequently in climate change
research literature? A bibliometric approach based on Reference
Publication Year Spectroscopy
Werner Marx*+, Robin Haunschild*, Andreas Thor**, Lutz Bornmann***
* Max Planck Institute for Solid State Research
Heisenbergstraße 1, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
** Hochschule für Telekommunikation Leipzig
Gustav-Freytag-Str. 43-45, 04277 Leipzig, Germany
E-Mail: [email protected]
*** Division for Science and Innovation Studies
Administrative Headquarters of the Max Planck Society
Hofgartenstr. 8,
80539 Munich, Germany.
E-mail: [email protected]
+ Corresponding author
Keywords: Climate change research, Citation analysis, Reference Publication Year
Spectroscopy (RPYS), Co-citation based RPYS (RPYS-CO)
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Abstract
Bibliometrics is not only useful for research assessment purposes, but also for analyzing the
history of science. This bibliometric analysis focuses on the general history of climate change
research and, more specifically, on the discovery of the greenhouse effect. First, the Reference
Publication Year Spectroscopy (RPYS) is applied to a large publication set on climate change of
222,060 papers published between 1980 and 2014. The references cited therein were extracted
and analyzed with regard to publications, which appeared prior to 1971 and are cited most
frequently. Second, a new method for establishing a more subject-specific publication set for
applying RPYS (based on the co-citations of a marker reference) is proposed (RPYS-CO). The
RPYS of the climate change literature focuses on the history of climate change research in total:
Which are the early works that are still alive in recent climate change related publications (in the
form of most frequently cited references) and thus are most important for the evolution of this
broad research field? We identified 25 highly-cited publications over all disciplines, which include
fundamental early scientific works of the 19th century (with a weak connection to climate change)
and some cornerstones of science (with a stronger connection to climate change). The most
frequently cited publications in climate change papers, which appeared at the beginning of the
second half of the 20th century, are mostly related to the various fields of geosciences including
meteorology (in particular atmospheric teleconnections and oceanic currents). The RPYS-CO
focuses on the discovery of the greenhouse effect and the specific role of carbon dioxide. By
RPYS-CO considering the Arrhenius (1896) paper, we selected only publications specifically
discussing the history of climate change research in the context of the discovery of the
greenhouse effect and the specific role of carbon dioxide.
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1. Introduction
Climate change has gained strongly increasing attention in the natural sciences and more
recently also in the social and political sciences. Scientists actively work to understand past
climate and to predict future climate by using observations and theoretical models. Various
subfields from physics, chemistry, meteorology, and geosciences (atmospheric chemistry and
physics, geochemistry and geophysics, oceanography, paleoclimatology etc.) are interlinked.
The scientific community has contributed extensively with various data, discussions, and
projections on the future climate as well as on the effects and risks of the expected climatic
change (IPCC Synthesis Report, 2014).
Bibliometrics as a rapidly developing quantitative method is not only useful for research
assessment purposes, but also e.g. for analyzing the history of science. This bibliometric
analysis focuses on the history of climate change research: Which are the early works that are
still alive in recent climate change related publications (in the form of most frequently cited
references) and thus are most important for the evolution of this research field? Such questions
can be answered by using a bibliometric method called Reference Publication Year
Spectroscopy (RPYS, see Marx et al., 2014).
The method is based on the assumption that peers produce a useful database by their
publications (in particular by the references cited therein). This databasis can be analysed
statistically with regard to (early) works most relevant for their specific field of research. Whereas
individual scientists judge the origins of their research field more or less subjectively, the overall
community might deliver a more objective picture. The peers effectively “vote” by their cited
references, which works turned out to be most important for the evolution of their research field.
RPYS utilizes the following observation: The analysis of the publication years of the references
cited by the papers in a specific research field shows that earlier publication years are not
equally represented, but that some years occur particularly frequently among the references.
These years appear in the distribution of the reference publication years as pronounced peaks.
The peaks are usually based on single early publications, which were most frequently cited.
These frequently cited papers are – as a rule – of specific significance to the research field in
question and often represent its origins and intellectual roots (Marx et al., 2014). In recent years,
several publications have appeared, in which the RPYS was described and applied to examine
the origins of research fields (Marx and Bornmann, 2014; Barth et al., 2014; Leydesdorff et al.,
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2014; Comins and Hussey, 2015a, 2015b). Compared to these studies, our analysis is based on
a very large publication and reference set.
Since only a small portion of the publications in a specific field of research normally discusses its
historical background, a kind of dilution or weakening happens with regard to the appearance of
historical references: Among the multitude of cited references, only the very prominent and most
cited early works appear as distinct peaks in the RPYS. Therefore, we present in this study an
extension of RPYS for the compilation of the publication set to be analyzed including the
references cited therein (RPYS-CO). We apply a bibliometric method, which has been used
extensively for many other purposes: the method of co-citation analysis (Small,1977).
This method takes advantage of the fact that concurrently cited (co-cited) papers are more or
less closely related to each other. One can select the citation environment of a specific reference
(or of two or even more references) in the form of all co-cited references and analyze these
references applying RPYS-CO. The specific reference should be a prominent and seminal work
which is used as a kind of marker or tracer reference for a specific topic in a field. We assume
that papers which cite the selected reference(s) are potential candidates for citing also many
other references relevant in a specific historical context. Thus, we select from the complete
publication set a (much smaller) part focusing on a specific topic (here: of the discovery of the
greenhouse effect and the specific role of carbon dioxide).
In this study we present the results of the RPYS and RPYS-CO on climate change research (1)
based on the total number of references (n=10,932,050) cited within a carefully searched
publication set of papers most relevant for this research field (n= 222,060) as well as (2) based
only on the co-cited references of a single paper (n=1638). For RPYS-CO, we selected the
paper by Svante Arrhenius (1896) entitled “On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the
temperature of the ground” which has been cited around 600 times until present. Both analyses
have been performed with the CRExplorer (www.crexplorer.net, Thor et al. 2016) – a program
which has been designed for RPYS. This paper introduces the new option of the CRExplorer to
undertake a RPYS-CO on a restricted set of cited references which are co-cited with at least one
selected cited reference (the marker cited reference).
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2. Datasets and Methodology
2.1 Climate change research literature in total
The analyses are based on the WoS custom data of our in-house database derived from the
Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-E), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), and Arts and
Humanities Citation Index (AHCI) produced by Thomson Reuters (Philadelphia, USA). First, we
applied a sophisticated search method called “interactive query formulation” to compile the
publication set of papers dealing with climate change (see Haunschild et al., in press). The
search strategy comprises a preliminary search for key papers and a renewed search based on
the synonyms revealed by the keyword analysis of the key papers (Wacholder, 2011). The
search was restricted to the time period 1980-2014 and resulted in a publication set of 222,060
papers (articles and reviews only).
This is not the complete publication set covering any research paper relevant for the climate
change research field. However, we assume that we have included by far most of the relevant
papers, in particular the key papers dealing with research on climate change. Furthermore, we
expect that a moderate amount of incompleteness does not bias the RPYS. An expansion of the
search query would increase the possibility of including non-relevant publications in the set.
For the RPYS, all cited references (n=10,932,050) have been selected from the papers in our
publication set on climate change (n=222,060), i.e. around 50 references per paper. To cope
with the large number of almost 11 million cited references when using the CRExplorer, we
applied the following processing strategy:
1. We imported only references with publication years earlier than 1971 into the CRExplorer.
This reduced the overall number of references substantially from originally 10,932,050 to
239,887 references. The limitation of the references to those with publication years prior to 1971
follows from the objective of this analysis to detect influential early works.
2. Reference variants of the same paper were algorithmically clustered and merged with the
CRExplorer. Additionally, we applied manual clustering to the references published prior to
1900. For example, two variants of the paper by Arrhenius (1896) were merged, which has been
cited 279 times with “Philosophical Magazine” and 32 times with “London Edinburgh Dublin” as
journal title.
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3. In order to detect the very early referenced publications, we selected the reference publication
year time period 1000-1900 and removed all references with reference counts less than 10 for
further analysis. The number of references decreased to n=152. A minimum reference count of
10 has proved to be reasonable for referenced papers published prior to 1900 (see Marx et al.,
2014; Marx and Bornmann, 2014).
4. For detecting important historical publications newer than 1900, we selected the reference
publication year time period 1901-1970 and removed all references with reference counts less
than 100 for further analysis. The number of references decreased to n=228. A minimum
reference count of 100 for the references, which appeared between 1900 and 1970, again
results from the need to reduce the flood of references.
2.2 Climate change research literature citing the marker paper
In the RPYS-CO, we focused on the discovery of the greenhouse effect and the specific role of
carbon dioxide. The new version of the CRExplorer allows the restriction of the cited references
to only those which are co-cited with at least one selected cited reference using the menu items
“Data” – "Retain Publications citing Selected Cited References". In a first step, we selected the
marker reference in the table visualized by the CRExplorer. Note that also misspelled reference
variants have to be considered, because in the case of earlier references their portion can not be
neglected (Marx, 2011). Misspelled variants can be considered in two ways: (1) All misspelled
variants are selected and the abovementioned menu item is chosen. (2) All misspelled variants
are clustered and merged. Afterwards, the resulting unified cited reference is selected and the
aforementioned menu item is chosen. Both possibilities yield the same RPYS-CO result. Since
we used a dataset in this study with merged variants of cited references, we had to select only
one reference.
Using the menue item of the CRExplorer in a second step, we reduced the references
(n=10,932,050) of our publication set (n=222,060) to all references co-cited with the 1896 paper
by Svante Arrhenius (n=1638). Svante Arrhenius was the first scientist who calculated how
changes in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could alter the surface temperature
through the greenhouse effect. He predicted that emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning
of fossil fuels were large enough to cause global warming.
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Interestingly, his prediction of a global temperature rise through doubling of the carbon dioxide
concentration (about 5 degrees Celsius) is close to the predictions of recent climate models.
Obviously, the many simplifications and mistakes of his calculation averaged out. Based on the
growth rate observed at his time, Arrhenius did not expect a doubling of the atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration within the next 3000 years - the concentration increase currently observed
(see: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/) means a doubling within only two centuries.
His paper can be seen as a cornerstone in the evolution of climate change research. In the first
half of the 20th century, however, his theory was widely refused and accordingly, the paper was
barely cited (until 1990, the number of citations per year was below ten).
By analyzing the co-citations of Arrhenius’ paper as a marker reference, we investigate the
discovery of the greenhouse effect and the specific role of carbon dioxide. This research topic
marks the historical roots and origins of the current climate change research. By zooming from
climate change research in total to the discovery of the greenhouse effect, we focus on literature
specifically discussing the history of climate change research. We reveal the dicisive works in
this context, including the forerunners and the papers taking up the impetus given by Arrhenius.
3. Results
3.1 Historical roots of climate change research
FIGs 1-2 show the results from the RPYS based on the climate change research literature in
total. The spectrograms show the distribution of the number of cited references across their
publication years within the two time periods 1686-1900 and 1901-1970. The earliest cited
reference year visible in FIG 1 is 1686.The earliest reference publication year of the original
reference set is the year 1002, but between 1002 and 1895 there are no references with
reference counts above the minimum of 10 citations.
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FIG 1: Annual distribution of cited references throughout the time period 1686-1900, which have
been cited in climate change papers (published between 1980 and 2014).
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FIG 2: Annual distribution of cited references throughout the time period 1901-1970, which have
been cited in climate change papers (published between 1980 and 2014).
The red lines in FIGs 1-2 visualize the number of cited references per reference publication year.
In order to identify those publication years with significantly more cited references than adjacent
years, the deviation of the number of cited references in each year from the five-year median
(median of the number of cited references in the two previous, the current, and the two following
years: t – 2; t – 1; t ; t + 1; t + 2) is also visualized (blue lines). The deviation from the five-year
median (blue lines) provides a curve smoother than the curve showing absolute numbers (red
lines). The blue line makes the distinct peaks more clearly visible. The more recent the
references, the less distinct are the peaks, because increasingly more different references per
year smooth both the number of cited references and the deviation from the median.
According to FIGs 1-2, there are pronounced peaks in the following 25 reference publication
years: 1686, 1735, 1758, 1798, 1847, 1859, 1884, 1896, 1899, 1916, 1932, 1941, 1945, 1948,
1950, 1953, 1957, 1961, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, and 1970.
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TAB 1: The most frequently cited references from specific reference publication years in FIGs 1-2, which have been cited by papers
dealing with climate change. For each reference, the corresponding reference publication year (RPY) and the number of cited
references (NCR) within the climate change related publication set are listed. Furthermore, a short comment is added each, which
explains the content of the cited work and its relation to climate change research.
RPY
Reference / Comment
1686
E. Halley: An historical account of the trade winds, and monsoons, observable in the seas between and near the
NCR
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tropicks, with an attempt to assign the physical cause of the said winds. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society of London 16(179-191), 153-168 (1686).
Edmond Halley (1656–1742) was an English astronomer, geophysicist, and meteorologist, well known for
computing the orbit of the eponymous Halley's Comet. In the paper on trade winds and monsoons he published
results from his Helenian expedition. He identified solar heating as the cause of atmospheric motions.
1735
G. Hadley: Concerning the cause of the general trade-winds. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of
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London 39(436-444), 58-62 (1735).
The publication by George Hadley (1685–1768) describes an atmospheric circulation system that bears the authors
name (Hadley Cell). This circulation system is intimately related to the trade winds, the tropical rainbelts, the
subtropical deserts, and the jet streams.
1758
C. Linnaeus: Systema naturæ per regna tria naturæ, secundum classes, ordines, genera, species, cum
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characteribus, differentiis, synonymis, locis 1 (10th ed.). Stockholm: Laurentius Salvius. pp. [1–4], 1–824 (1758).
The publication is one of the major publications of the Swedish botanist, zoologist and physician Carolus Linnaeus
(1707–1778) and introduced the Linnaean taxonomy. The first edition of the book was printed 1735. The tenth
edition (1758) is considered the starting point of zoological nomenclature.
1798
T.R. Malthus: An essay on the principle of population. In Oxford World's Classics reprint. Printed for J. Johnson, in
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St. Paul’s Church-Yard, London (1798).
The book was first published in 1798 under the alias Joseph Johnson. The author Thomas Robert Malthus (1766–
1834) stated that sooner or later population will be checked by famine and disease, leading to what is known as a
Malthusian catastrophe.
1847
C. Bergmann: Über die Verhältnisse der Wärmeökonomie der Thiere zu ihrer Grösse. In: Göttinger Studien, 1. Abt.,
206
595–708 (1847).
The paper by the German biologist Carl Bergmann (1814–1865) describes what has been named Bergmann's rule:
A principle that states that populations and species of larger size are found in colder environments, and species of
smaller size are found in warmer regions.
1859
C. Darwin: On the origin of species by means of natural selection, or the preservation of favoured races in the
292
struggle for life. Murray, London (1859).
This seminal publication by Charles Darwin (1809–1882) is considered to be the foundation of evolutionary biology.
The book attracted widespread interest upon its publication and generated scientific, philosophical, and religious
discussion until present.
1884
H.F. Blanford: On the connexion of the Himalaya snowfall with dry winds and seasons of drought in India.
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Proceedings of the Royal Society of London 37(232-234), 3-22 (1884).
Henry Francis Blanford (1834–1893) was a British meteorologist who made long-term weather forecasts using the
link between snow in the Himalayas and rainfall in the rest of India. Using this method, he was able to predict a
deficient monsoon in 1885.
1896
S. Arrhenius: On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. Philosophical
Magazine and Journal of Science Series 5(41), 237-276 (1896).
Svante Arrhenius (1859–1927) was the first scientist who calculated how changes in the levels of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere could alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect. He predicted that emissions of
carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels were large enough to cause global warming. His prediction of a
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global temperature rise through doubling the carbon dioxide concentration is close to recent predictions. Until
around 1950, experts refused the hypothesis because they found that he had grossly oversimplified the climate
system.
1899
T.C. Chamberlin: An attempt to frame a working hypothesis on the cause of glacial periods on an atmospheric
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basis. Journal of Geology 7, 545-584, 667-685, 751-787 (1899).
Thomas Chrowder Chamberlin (1843–1928) was an influential American geologist. In his 1899 paper he proposed
the possibility that changes in climate could result from changes in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide
– thereby supporting the theory of Arrhenius (1896).
1908
S. Arrhenius: Worlds in the making: the evolution of the universe. Harper & Brothers Publishers, New York &
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London (264 pages).
This book was directed at a general audience and already appeared in 1906 in Swedish (Världarnas utveckling)
and 1907 in German (Das Werden der Welten). Arrhenius concluded that the human emission of CO2 would be
strong enough to prevent the world from entering a new ice age, and also that a warmer earth would be needed to
feed the rapidly increasing population.
1916
F.E. Clements: Plant succession: An analysis of the development of vegetation. Publication 242, Carnegie
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Institution of Washington, Washington (1916).
Frederic Edward Clements (1874–1945) was an American plant ecologist and pioneer in the study of vegetation
succession.
1932
G.T. Walker and E.W. Bliss: World weather V, Memoirs of the Royal Meteorological Society 4(36), 53-84 (1932).
343
Sir Gilbert Thomas Walker (1868–1958) was a British physicist and statistician. He is best known for his
groundbreaking description of the Southern Oscillation, a major phenomenon of global climate, for discovering
Walker Circulation, and for greatly advancing the study of climate in general.
1941
H. Jenny: Factors of soil formation: A system of quantitative pedology. Dover Publications Inc., New York (1965).
Originally published: McGraw-Hill, New York (1941).
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The monograph by Hans Jenny is an advanced treatise on theoretical soil science and includes a study of soilforming factors and processes of soil genesis. It is an extension of the first part of the course "Development and
morphology of soils" at the College of Agriculture of the University of California.
1941
M. Milankowic/Milankovitch: Kanon der Erdbestrahlung und seine Anwendung auf das Eiszeitenproblem. Académie
352
Royale Serbe. Éditions Speciales; 132 [vielm. 133]: XX, 633, Belgrad (1941).
Milutin Milankowic/Milankovitch (1879–1958) explained how the Earth's long-term climate changes (in particular the
ice ages occurring in the geological past of the Earth) are caused by changes in the position of the Earth in
comparison to the Sun, now known as Milankovitch Cycles.
1945
H.B. Mann: Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3), 245-259 (1945).
908
The paper by Henry B. Mann discusses tests of randomness against trends.
1948
C. W. Thornthwaite: An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical Review 38(1), 55-94
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(1948).
The American climatologist and geographer Charles Warren Thornthwaite (1899–1963) devised a moisture based
climate classification system (that is still in use worldwide) by monitoring the soil water budget.
1948
H. L. Penman: Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass. Proceedings of the Royal Society of
665
London A - Mathematical and Physical Sciences 193(1032), 120-145 (1948).
In the paper two theoretical approaches to the evaporation from saturated surfaces are outlined.
1950
J.M. McCrea: On the isotopic chemistry of carbonates and a paleotemperature scale. Journal of Chemical Physics
318
18(6), 849-857 (1950).
The temperature variation of the fractionation of oxygen in exchange reactions between dissolved carbonate and
water and between calcite and water are calculated on theoretical grounds and checked experimentally.
1953
S. Epstein et al.: Revised carbonate-water isotopic temperature scale. Geological Society of America Bulletin
64(11), 1315-1325 (1953).
Samuel Epstein (1919–2001) explored the field of stable isotope geochemistry and studied natural variations in the
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isotopic abundances of hydrogen, carbon, oxygen, and silicon, with applications to archeology and climatology.
1957
G.H. Hutchinson: Population studies: Animal ecology and demography. Cold Spring Harbor Symposia on
656
Quantitative Biology 22, 415-427 (1957).
George Evelyn Hutchinson (1903–1991) is an American ecologist sometimes described as the "father of modern
ecology”. He contributed a mathematical theory of population growth to climate research.
1961
H. Craig: Isotopic variations in meteoric waters. Science 133(346), 1702-1703 (1961).
489
The paper reports how the relationship between deuterium and oxygen-18 concentrations in natural meteoric
waters from many parts of the world has been determined with a mass spectrometer.
1961
H. Stommel: Thermohaline convection with 2 stable regimes of flow. Tellus 13(2), 224-230 (1961).
406
The paper deals with the thermohaline ocean circulation. In contrast to wind-driven currents, the thermohaline
circulation is part of the ocean circulation, which is driven by density differences.
1963
E.N. Lorenz: Deterministic non-periodic flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20(2), 130-141 (1963).
493
Edward Norton Lorenz (1917– 2008) was an American mathematician, meteorologist, and a pioneer of chaos
theory. He introduced the strange attractor notion and coined the term “butterfly effect”, which is most important for
the basic limits of weather forecasting.
1964
W. Dansgaard: Stable isotopes in precipitation. Tellus 16(4), 436-468 (1964).
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The paper is most-important for the reconstruction of the past climate based on ice core samples. Willi Dansgaard
(1922–2011) was the first scientist to demonstrate that measurements of the trace isotopes deuterium and oxygen18 in accumulated glacier ice could be used as an indicator of past climate.
1965
W.C. Palmer: Meteorological drought. Research paper no.45, U.S. Department of Commerce & Office of
Climatology, Weather Bureau, February 1965 (58 pages).
The American meteorologist Wayne Palmer published the so-called Palmer drought index as a measurement of
dryness based on recent precipitation and temperature. A highly topical work in view of the increasing dryness, e.g.
in the western part of the USA.
767
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1965
J.L. Monteith: Evaporation and environment. Symposium of the Society for Experimental Biology 19, 205-234
637
(1965).
The paper deals with evaporation of plants / leaves.
1965
H Craig and L.I. Gordon: Deuterium and oxygen 18 variations in the ocean and the marine atmosphere. In: Stable
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isotopes in oceanographic studies and paleotemperatures. Editor: E. Tongiorgi, Spoleto (1965).
This publication is important for measurements of the isotopes deuterium and oxygen-18 as an indicator of
paleotemperatures and thereby for the reconstruction of the past climate.
1967
S. Manabe and R.T. Wetheralt: Thermal equilibrium of atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity.
454
Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 24(3), 241-259 (1967).
“Manabe-Wetherald one-dimensional radiative-convective model” is seen as the first realistic atmospheric model,
which considers the convection and radiation budget of the atmosphere.
1967
R.H. MacArthur and E.O. Wilson: The theory of island biogeography. Princeton University Press, 1967 (203 pages).
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The authors developed a general theory to explain the facts of island biogeography. Their work provided a new
framework to explain patterns in species diversity.
1968
M.A. Stokes and T.L. Smiley: An introduction to tree-ring dating. University of Chicago Press, 1968 (73 pages).
705
The monograph introduces the method of dendrochronology (tree-ring dating) based on the analysis of patterns of
tree rings. One main area of application of the method is paleoecology (reconstruction of the past climate).
1968
P.K. Sen: Estimates of regression coefficient based on Kendalls Tau. Journal of the American Statistical
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Association 63(324), 1379 (1968).
A simple and robust estimator of β based on Kendall's rank correlation tau is studied and presented.
1968
G. Hardin: The tragedy of the commons. Science 162(3859), 1243-1248 (1968).
The paper by Garrett Hardin is based upon an essay by a Victorian economist on the effects of unregulated grazing
on common land and denotes a situation where individuals acting independently and rationally according to each's
self-interested behaviour contrary to the common interests of the whole group.
410
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1969
J. Bjerknes: Atmospheric teleconnections from equatorial pacific. Monthly Weather Review 97(3), 163-172 (1969).
634
Jacob Bjerknes helped toward an understanding of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). He suggested that a
weakening of the east-west temperature difference can disrupt trade winds, resulting in increasingly warm water
toward the east (see also Walker & Bliss, 1932).
1969
S. Manabe: Climate and ocean circulation I: Atmospheric circulation and hydrology of earth’s surface. Monthly
498
Weather Review 97(11), 739-774 (1969).
The paper outlines how the effect of the hydrology of the earth’s surface can be incorporated into a numerical
model of the general circulation of the atmosphere.
1969
M.I. Budyko: Effect of solar radiation variations on climate of earth. Tellus 21(5), 611-619 (1969).
458
From the analysis of observation data, the paper shows that variations of the mean temperature of the earth can be
explained by the variation of solar radiation, arriving at the earth’s surface.
1970
J.E. Nash and J.V. Sutcliffe: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles.
Journal of Hydrology 10(3), 282-290 (1970).
The principles governing the application of the conceptual model technique to river flow forecasting are discussed.
The necessity for a systematic approach to the development and testing of the model is explained and some
preliminary ideas are suggested.
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TAB 1 lists the cited references, which comprise the vast majority (or even the complete
number) of the cited references of the corresponding reference publication years in FIGs 1-2.
Again, short comments are added, which summarize the content of the cited works and (as far
as possible) their relation to climate change research.
Note that the reference counts of all references within a specific reference publication year (i.e.
references of the same age) are directly comparable among each other since all citing papers
belong to the same research field: climate change research. Thus, the cited references originate
in the same citation culture and it is not necessary to field-normalize the cited reference counts
as it is conventional in bibliometrics (Waltman, 2016). The field-normalization is ensured by the
first step of the RPYS: the selection of the publication set on which citation impact is measured
target-oriented. However, the corresponding papers of the references presented in TAB 1 have
been published throughout a large time period (1686-1970) within quite different publication and
citation cultures. Thus, the reference counts in the table from different time periods are not
comparable with each other. The average (and maximum) number of cited references per paper
increases from past to present (Bornmann and Haunschild, in press).
According to TAB 1, some of the most frequently cited early publications are most prominent
publications of science in general. They are only loosely connected to climate change, in
particular the publications by Carolus Linnaeus (1758), Robert Malthus (1798), and Charles
Darwin (1859). Their basic nature causes comparatively high citation rates also in the climate
change research field. Linnaeus is seen as the father of modern taxonomy and is also
considered as one of the founders of modern ecology, where climate plays a major role as
driving force. Darwin as the creator of the evolutionary theory was concerned with climate as an
important factor of natural selection. Malthus uncovered famine and disease (both often a result
of climatic changes) as limiting factors for the growth of populations.
Other early works are basic publications in specific disciplines like meteorology (Halley, 1686;
Hadley, 1735) or biology (Bergmann, 1847) with a connection to climatology. Edmond Halley
identified solar heating as the cause of atmospheric motions and George Hadley discovered that
the atmospheric circulation system is intimately related to monsoons and trade winds, the
tropical rainbelts, the subtropical deserts, and the jet streams. Carl Bergmann introduced what
has been named Bergmann's rule: A principle that states that populations and species of larger
size are found in colder environments, and species of smaller size are found in warmer regions.
18
These early publications do not mark the beginning of the actual climate change research. The
scientific discovery of climate change did not begin before the early 19th century when the ice
ages and the greenhouse effect were discovered. The first publication, which can be seen as the
origin of modern research on climate change, was published by Arrhenius (1896). Thus, this
paper has been used as marker reference for the co-citation analysis in section 3.2 below.
The most frequently cited papers published within the first half of the 20th century are seminal
papers in meteorology (Walker, 1932), agronomy (Jenny, 1941; Penman, 1948), and climatology
(Thornthwaite, 1948). Gilbert Thomas Walker is best known for his groundbreaking description
of the Southern Oscillation and for discovering the Walker Circulation. The most frequently cited
papers, which appeared in the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, are related to
various fields of geoscience: The publications by Stommel (1961), Bjerknes (1969), and Manabe
(1969) deal with oceanic currents, which are major phenomena of global climate. The paper by
Manabe and Wetherald (1967) introduced the first realistic atmospheric model, which considers
the convection and radiation budget of the atmosphere. The papers by McCrea (1950), Epstein
(1953), and Craig and Gordon (1965) are most important for isotope based dating of ice cores
and of all kinds of sediments, whereas the paper by Stokes (1968) gives an introduction to tree
ring dating (dendrochronology). These papers document the importance of research on
paleoclimate, both for understanding the earth’s climatic system and for future climate
predictions.
The publication by Budyko (1969) refers to the variations of solar activity as a natural climate
factor, which is discussed until present. Blanford (1884), Penman (1948), Monteith (1965), and
Palmer (1965) deal with evaporation and drought, which are decisive factors for agriculture.
These are highly topical works in view of the increasing dryness, e.g. in the western part of the
USA. The publications of Hutchinson (1957) and MacArthur and Wilson (1967) are biosphere
related and deal with animal ecology and plant formation or succession. The fundamental work
by Milankowitch (1941) on the causes of glacial periods and by Lorenz (1963) on chaos theory
(see the butterfly effect) are cornerstones of science and have a strong connection to climate
change and meteorology, respectively.
Two highly cited pre-1971 publications are Dansgaard (1964) and Nash (1970). Dansgaard
(1964) is most important for the reconstruction of the past climate based on ice core samples.
Willi Dansgaard was the first scientist who demonstrated that measurements of the trace
isotopes deuterium and oxygen-18 in accumulated glacier ice could be used as an indicator of
19
past climate. Nash (1970) is one of the first publications about climate change vulnerability. The
paper by Hardin (1968) is an exception in TAB 1: “The tragedy of the commons” concept is often
cited in connection with sustainable development, meshing economic growth and environmental
protection, as well as in the debate of global warming.
3.2 Climate research literature citing the marker paper
In the RPYS-CO we substantially reduced the climate change research publication set by using
co-citation analysis. FIG 3 shows the spectrogram from the RPYS-CO using the references cocited with Arrhenius (1896). By definition, the peak associated with this reference is dominating
the results. There are two distinct peaks corresponding to references prior to 1896 resulting from
the works of forerunners, and six peaks with reference publication years later than 1896. The
CRExplorer reveals that the broader peak after 1896 includes three frequently cited papers
published between 1897 and 1899. This peak is followed by pronounced peaks corresponding to
the reference publication years 1908, 1924, 1938, and 1956/1957 (when modern climate change
research began).
20
FIG 3: Annual distribution of cited references which are co-cited with Arrhenius (1896)
throughout the time period 1686-1970.
21
TAB 2: The most frequently cited references from specific reference publication years in FIG 3, which have been co-cited with
Arrhenius (1896). For each reference, the corresponding reference publication year (RPY) and the number of cited references (NCR)
within the climate change related publication set are listed. Furthermore, a short comment is added each, which explains the content of
the cited work and its relation to climate change research. The marker reference (Arrhenius, 1896) is shaded in gray.
RPY
Reference / Comment
1824*
J.B.J. Fourier: Remarques Générales sur les Températures du Globe Terrestre et des Espaces Planétaires.
NCR
25
Annales de Chimie et de Physique 27, 136–167.
1827
J.B.J. Fourier: Mémoire sur les températures du globe terrestre et des espaces planétaires. Mémoires de
20
l'Académie Royale des Sciences 7, 569–604.
The French Mathematician and physicist Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier (1768-1830) determined that the Earth is
warmer than expected according to his estimation. He attributed this to the phenomenon, that the Earth’s
atmosphere is transparent for solar radiation, but not for the infrared radiation produced by the warming of the
atmosphere and the ground. Thereby, Fourier discovered the (natural) greenhouse effect. His 1827 paper is a
reproduction of is 1824 work, which in turn is a slightly revised version of his (barely cited) 1822 book.
1861
J. Tyndall: On the absorption and radiation of heat by gasses and vapours, and on the physical connection of
62
radiation, absorption, and conduction. Philosophical Magazine, Series 4, 22: 169-194, 273-285.
1863
J. Tyndall: On the radiation through the earth’s atmosphere. Philosophical Magazine, Series 4, 25: 200-206.
The Irish physicist John Tyndall (1820-1893) was the first to measure the radiant heat (infrared) absorptive powers
of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and water vapor. He suggested that changes in the concentration
of these gases could result in climatic change. His contributions have been published in a variety of papers
(around 1855-1875) with the 1861 paper as the most frequently cited work.
12
22
1896
S. Arrhenius: On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. Philosophical
311
Magazine and Journal of Science Series 5(41), 237-276 (1896).
The marker reference (see TAB 1).
1897
T.C. Chamberlin: A group of hypotheses bearing on climatic changes. Journal of Geology 5, 653-683.
17
1898
T.C. Chamberlin: The influence of great epochs of limestone formation upon the constitution of the atmosphere.
13
Journal of Geology 6, 609-621.
1899
T.C. Chamberlin: An attempt to frame a working hypothesis on the cause of glacial periods on an atmospheric
55
basis. Journal of Geology 7, 545-584, 667-685, 751-787 (1899).
Thomas Chrowder Chamberlin (1843–1928) was an influential American geologist. In his 1899 paper he proposed
the possibility that changes in climate could result from changes in the concentration of atmospheric carbon
dioxide – thereby supporting the theory of Arrhenius (1896).
1908
S. Arrhenius: Worlds in the making: the evolution of the universe. Harper and Brothers Publishers, New York and
20
London (264 pages).
The book by Svante Arrhenius was directed at a general audience and appeared already 1906 in Swedish
(Världarnas utveckling) and 1907 in German (Das Werden der Welten). Arrhenius concluded that the human
emission of CO2 would be strong enough to prevent the world from entering a new ice age, and also that a warmer
earth would be needed to feed the rapidly increasing population.
1938
G.S. Callendar: The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature. Quarterly Journal of
the Royal Meteorological Society 64, 223-237.
1949
G.S. Callendar: Can carbon dioxide influence climate? Weather 4, 310-314.
The British engineer Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964) developed the first complete theory of climatic change
and stated in 1938 that carbon dioxide caused the warming trend of the preceding decades. He presented
evidence that both temperature and the CO2 level in the atmosphere had been rising over the past half-century.
Callendar attempted to revive Arrhenius's greenhouse-effect theory and wrote about the potential effects of
54
23
anthropogenic CO2 emissions for a period of nearly three decades (1938-1961).
1956
G.N. Plass: The carbon dioxide theory of climatic change. Tellus 8, 140-154.
20
1956
G.N. Plass: Effect of carbon dioxide variations on climate. American Journal of Physics 24, 376-387.
10
1956
G.N. Plass: The influence of the 15-micron carbon dioxide band on the atmospheric infrared cooling rate.
10
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 82, 310-324.
The Canadian physicist Gilbert Norman Plass (1920-2004) calculated the transmission of radiation through the
earth’s atmosphere and predicted that doubling the level would bring a 3-4°C rise. He was the first to use a
computer for climate modelling. Plass expected that human activity would raise the average global temperature at
the rate of 1.1 degrees C per century if emissions would continue at the 1950s rate.
1957
R. Revelle and H.E. Suess: Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean and the question of an
26
increase of atmospheric CO2 during the past decades. Tellus 9, 18-27.
Roger Revelle and Hans E. Suess remarked that mankind had embarked upon a "large-scale geophysical
experiment" as a result of the tremendous utilization of fossil fuels by the industrialized society. However, the
theory of an anthropogenic greenhouse effect was widely disputed or ignored until Charles David Keeling started
in 1958 to measure the (steadily increasing) concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere at Mauna
Loa (Hawaii) and until scientists increasingly predicted global warming in the 1970s.
* The (correct) reference publication year 1824 was mostly confused with 1924 (17 out of 25 references). Obviously, many climate
change researchers could not imagine that the greenhouse effect has been discovered already at the beginning of the 19th century.
24
The cited references underlying the peak reference publication years in FIG 3 are listed in TAB
2. Due to the focus on the discovery of the greenhouse effect and the specific role of carbon
dioxide, there are only three references, which appear in TAB 1 as well as in TAB 2: the 1896
paper and the 1908 book by Arrhenius and the 1899 paper by Chamberlin.
The thematic focus by using the marker reference (Arrhenius, 1896) in the RPYS-CO initially
reveals the works of two forerunners: (1) The French physicist Joseph B.J. Fourier (1824, 1827)
was the first who detected the greenhouse effect. (2) The Irish physicist John Tyndall (1861) was
the first to measure the radiant heat (infrared) absorptive powers of greenhouse gases, including
carbon dioxide. Further peaks in the spectrogram can be explained as follows: The American
geologist Thomas C. Chamberlin (1897, 1898, 1899) proposed the possibility that changes in
climate could result from changes in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The
British engineer Guy Callendar (1838) stated that carbon dioxide caused the warming trend of
the preceding decades. The Canadian physicist Gilbert N. Plass calculated the transmission of
radiation through the earth’s atmosphere and predicted that doubling the level would bring a 34°C rise. Roger Revelle and Hans E. Suess (1957) remarked for the first time that mankind had
started to embark upon a "large-scale geophysical experiment" as a result of the tremendous
utilization of fossil fuels by the industrialized society.
4. Discussion
The first analysis of this study is based on a large and carefully searched publication set of
222,060 papers published between 1980 and 2014, which are dealing with research on climate
change. The references cited therein were extracted and analyzed with regard to publications,
which appeared prior to 1971 and are still cited most frequently. We identified the most
pronounced peaks in the RPYS spectrogram and presented 25 publications together with
comments on their content and relation to climate change. Thus, we focused on a very limited
number of top-cited references showing the driving forces in the very heterogeneous field of
climate change research. Even these 25 top references are too numerous to be discussed here
very detailed.
The 25 publications include fundamental early works of the 19th century science and
cornerstones of science that are closely related to climate change. The most frequently cited
publications, which appeared in the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, are mostly
published in various fields of geosciences including meteorology (atmospheric teleconnections
25
and oceanic currents). Furthermore, works on agriculture, paleoclimatology (in particular isotope
based dating of ice cores and sediments) and on climate change vulnerability play a major role
in climate change research. Two highly cited pre-1971 publications are Dansgaard (1964) and
Nash (1970). Dansgaard (1964) is most-important for the reconstruction of the past climate
based on ice core samples. Nash (1970) is one of the first papers around climate change
vulnerability.
The second analysis of this study focusses on the discovery of the greenhouse effect and the
specific role of carbon dioxide. By narrowing down the perspective from climate change research
in total to the discovery of the greenhouse effect, we investigate literature specifically discussing
the history of climate change research related to carbon dioxide and zoom into the (much
smaller) reference set cited therein. The data for the analysis is based on co-citations of the
seminal work of Arrhenius (1896). We assumed that the relevant early works (if at all) are cited
alongside with this prominent paper. It is hardly imaginable that the Arrhenius paper is not cited
in the context of the history of climate change research in connection with carbon dioxide. We
applied RPYS-CO on this more specific reference set and revealed a multitude of early works
relevant for the history of climate change research. With the exception of Arrhenius (1896),
Arrhenius (1908) and Chamberlin (1899), these papers do not appear as distinct peaks in the
RPYS (the first analysis in this study).
We cannot expect that the two approaches deliver similar results: The first approach reveals the
early works most relevant for a multitude of disciplines active in climate change research and
presents 25 prominent out of almost 11 Million cited references. The second approach focuses
on the discovery of the greenhouse effect and the specific role of carbon dioxide. Also, only on
the historically oriented climate change related publications are considered here. We suggest to
further examine the latter approach in the form of RPYS-CO.
The most frequently cited publications from both RPYS and RPYS-CO analyses (listed in TAB 1
and TAB 2) mirror the literature selection and accentuation of the overall climate change
research community (i.e. the authors of the citing papers in our publication set). RPYS (including
RPYS-CO) is a quantitative method; the results of the analysis can be compared with a
qualitative approach by which experts in the field select and describe the important publications
in a literature overview. As an example, we analyzed the “Historical overview of climate change”
by Le Treut et al. (2007), a contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This overview cites 13 of the 46 references
26
listed in TAB 1 and 4 of the 15 references listed in TAB 2. For several authors of the referenced
publications in TAB 1 (e.g. Manabe) we find that Le Treut et al. (2007) prefer to cite the more
recent papers of these authors rather than their earlier papers published prior to 1971 and
revealed by RPYS and RPYS-CO, respectively. The different focus explains most of the
differences between the qualitative (historical literature overview) and the quantitative
(bibliometric) approach.
Another reason for the differences between both approaches might be that importance does not
always manifest in citations. A good example for important publications with low citation impact
is the contribution by Charles David Keeling (e.g. Keeling, 1958, 1960), who started in 1958 to
measure the concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere at Mauna Loa (Hawaii).
His data collection is the longest continuous record of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the world,
showing that carbon dioxide levels were rising steadily (Keeling Curve). The contributions of this
forerunner have been published in a variety of papers since 1958 and appear as cited
references in our dataset, but they do not belong to the top references within a specific reference
publication year.
Despite Keeling’s important contributions to the climate change research, his publications are
not referenced extraordinarily high as explicit (formal, reference based) citations in papers on
climate change. They seem to be cases of “obliteration by incorporation” (McCain, 2012), which
affects seminal works that are rapidly absorbed into the body of scientifc knowledge. In the case
of Keeling, the data collection for the curve bearing his name extended throughout decades; the
idea behind and the result of the measurements is not presented in a single paper.
Since importance is not always detectable via high citation counts, the reconstruction of the
history of a specific research field is not possible without expert knowledge. Against the
backdrop of the advantages and disadvantages of the quantitative (bibliometric) and qualitative
(expert based) approach for the detection of important (historical) publications, it seems to be
the best strategy to combine both approaches.
27
Acknowledgements
The bibliometric data used in this paper are from an in-house database developed and
maintained by the Max Planck Digital Library (MPDL, Munich) and derived from the Science
Citation Index Expanded (SCI-E), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Arts and Humanities
Citation Index (AHCI) provided by Thomson Reuters (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA).
28
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