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SNV V4CP Inception report – November 2016 Kenya Resilience– Theory of Change Theory of Change 1. Introduction The Resilience Thematic Group’s Theory of Change outlines the strategies, outputs, outcomes and targeted impact of the project. This is elaborated in visual format followed by a detailed narrative which explains the inter-relations between the visually presented strategies, outputs, outcomes and impact. 1 SNV V4CP Inception report – November 2016 Kenya Resilience– Theory of Change Institutional Capacity Development CSOs Institutional capacity improved (A) Improved accountability mechanism(nati Increased CSO (CEMIRIDE/RAP/ KLMC)participation in issues surrounding pastoralism and climate change at meetings, multistakeholder platforms and alliances (CSO Climate onal and county budget process, legislative process) (G) Growth of business and private financial investment in products and services (insurance, credit facilities) for pastoralists with deliberate focus on gender (I) Change Coalition, KCCWG, PLF, DLCI, ASAL Forum, KLMC and ADA)with governments (NDMA, Evidence Generation Evidence appropriately packaged and disseminated for policy advocacy (B) NEMA and Ministries (livestock, Environment and water))and the private sector(KEPSA, KNCC and Kenya Leather Development Council) (D) Increased collaboration between CSOs, Private Sector and Government (CSO Climate Change Coalition, KCCWG, PLF, DLCI, ASAL Forum, KLMC, ADA Consortium, NDMA, Ministries, KEPSA, KNCC,Kenya Leather DevelopmentCouncil)(F) Strategic Policy Advocacy STRATEGIES OUTPUTS Advocacy plans and strategies available (C) Increased Influence of CSOs in Climate Change Policy processes (Co- Appropriate allocation of national and county resources addressing climate change, with the burden on pastoralist communities and women given specific recognition (J) Improved political will at national and county levels in addressing climate change and change in public attitude towards pastoralism (H) Inclusive policies, regulations and frameworks developed, adopted and implemented or detrimental policies prevented Improved service delivery to pastoralists by government and private sector in addressing challenges of climate change (L) (Including Customary Bills, , County Emergency Bills, County Climate Change Adaptation Fund Bill, Co-management policy, salesyards bills, NLMP, CC Strategy, Action Plan, NCAct 2016) Pastoralist communities resilient to climate change 2. Visual representation of the Theory of Change (K) management, CIs and related national polcies) (E) SHORT-TERM OUTCOMES MID-TERM OUTCOMES LONG-TERM OUTCOMES IMPACT 2 SNV V4CP Inception report – November 2016 Kenya Resilience– Theory of Change a. Causal linkages Our program seeks to positively influence development, revision, adoption and implementation of policy and regulations addressing climate change with specific interest in improving resilience of pastoralist communities. The policy frameworks we will target include: the National Climate Change Response Strategy, National Climate Change Action Plan, National Environmental Policy, Climate Change Act, National Livestock Policy, National Budget Policy Statements, National Policy for Disaster Management and National Policy for the Sustainable Development of the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya at the national level. At the County levels, policies of interest will include County Integrated Development Plans, County Climate Change Fund Bills, County Emergency Funds Bills, County Customary Bills, Livestock Sales Yard Bills, County Government Finance Bills and County Climate Change Policies. Enactment and implementation of policies and inclusive legal frameworks should lead to the integration of pastoralists’ representatives in climate change decision-making structures and processes. The targeted processes for pastoralists’ participation and engagement under the project include: the County Climate Planning Committees, County Steering Groups; the National Climate Change Council as stipulated in the Climate Change Act 2016; the National Drought Management Authority Drought Contingency Fund; as well as the Kenya Climate Change Working Group represented by state and non-state actors. The project goal is to increase pastoralist resilience to climate change by enhancing their voice in climate change policy formulation and implementation in Kenya. The initiative is premised on three key strategies: 1. Institutional Capacity Building 2. Evidence Generation and Dissemination 3. Strategic Advocacy Initiatives 1. Capacity development SNV will work with partner CSOs under the resilience thematic group to build their capacities in leadership, advocacy, utilisation of data and evidence, knowledge in climate change resilience and business development in the sector. With capacities strengthened, CSOs will be more knowledgeable on the sector, able to accurately articulate climate change issues and engage more widely in the sector (D), and develop strategic collaborations (F) as a result of improved business development With increased collaborations and alliances with sector players, CSOs influence on climate change issues will increase (E) drawing government attention and political will (H) to engage constructively in addressing climate change policy.Structured collaboration with government will enhance accountability (G) and enhance political will (H) to develop and adopt inclusive policies (K) – pastoralists (elders and women) and private sector views incorporated. This will promote appropriate budget allocation to climate change resilience programs (J) for pastoralists and encourage business investment (I) resulting in improved services for pastoralist communities (L) – improved operation of livestock markets and resource (water and pasture) management. 2. Evidence generation Under the Evidence Generation Strategy, the project, aside from providing evidence on available legal frameworks to engage on climate change, will address gaps identified in the context analysis. Separate research will be conducted to understand the role and significance of traditional/customary institutions and effectiveness of models such as co-management of livestock markets in addressing climate change resilience for pastoralists in Kenya. Research will also cover the other knowledge gaps highlighted in the context analysis including climate change and gender with specific focus on pastoralist in Kenya. Specifically the research target will focus on how gender and intergenerational aspects can be mainstreamed in climate change resilience in pastoral communities Further, budgetary allocation in Livestock sector in ASAL Counties; gaps in the legal 3 SNV V4CP Inception report – October 2016 Kenya Resilience– Theory of Change frameworks for promotion of pastoralists voice in climate change dialogues; related to this project will be analysed. Information generated from the research will be packaged for CSOs, Government Agencies, International Organisations, Private Sector, Media, Community Based Organisations, Research Institutions and policymakers at County and National levels. Information shared will increase awareness and knowledge on pastoralist issues regarding climate change allowing them to collaborate and participate articulately in meetings, multi-stakeholder platforms and alliances with governments and the private sector, increasing political goodwill eventually leading to enactment and implementation of policies. 3. Strategic policy advocacy initiatives The researches undertaken will generate evidence that will inform our advocacy strategies (lobbying, media campaigns) and at the same time make available material that will be used in the advocacy processes including: Policy briefs Budget analysis reports Scoping/Market survey reports Lobby briefs Effective use of the evidence material for target groups (policy makers, bureaucrats, private sector, pastoralists and pastoral leaders) will contribute to increased participation (D) and influence (E) of CSOs in improving pastoralists’ voice in climate change policy processes. Structured collaborations between CSOs, Government and Private sector (F) using provisions for inclusion will enhance accountability (G) and increase political will (H) to engage pastoralists in development, adoption and implementation of inclusive policies, regulations and frameworks (K). Appropriate budget allocations at national and county level (J) and growth of businesses and private financial investment for pastoralists (I) resulting will lead to improved service delivery (L) to pastoralists and enhance their resilience to climate shocks. Many county policies are due for review like the County Integrated Development Plan (CIDP) and many sector strategic plans like the one for water, environment and natural resources, and participation of pastoralists in these initiatives will be the major activities the resilience team will seek to lobby. Additionally, the climate change fund legislation and the customary natural resource management legislation require inputs from the lowest level when formulating, lobbying by CSOs for community inclusion in the process will ensure that policy makers remain accountable. b. Assumptions The resilience thematic group considers the following assumptions in undertaking the voice for change partnership project: That regular meetings with stakeholders will lead to collaborative policy advocacy initiatives That policies enacted and /or reviewed will be implemented fully to promote pastoralist voice in climate change dialogue That gender and intergenerational issues will be considered in pastoralists’ participation in climate change resilience initiatives. Implementing partners will receive adequate support in a timely manner from SNV to implement planned activities That policy makers and bureaucrats will be responsive to our policy campaigns of amplifying pastoralists voice 4 SNV V4CP Inception report – October 2016 Kenya Resilience– Theory of Change c. Risks There is risk that the upcoming 2017 general election may record incidences of unrest, alter policy development focus and thereby affect implementation of some activities during the campaign and election period. As a mitigation strategy, project action plans will factor in the activities in the elections and campaign calendar to take advantage of complimentary events and minimise conflicts accordingly. Powerful and influential actors from non-pastoralist communities may oppose or even fight initiatives to amplify pastoralists’ voice in climate change agenda. To mitigate this, the project partners will work with the pastoralist leaders’ forum (PLF) which provides a strong united front for advocacy of pastoralists’ issues. Also, we will advocate for policy that does not disenfranchise any community. Newly elected and appointed leaders/civil servants following 2017 elections may discontinue collaborating with the program as a predecessor did. However, partners will work closely with senior officials at ministries as well, employed by public service board and not appointed by president to ensure continuity. 5