Download Theory Of Change - Kenya livestock Marketing Council

SNV V4CP Inception report – November 2016
Kenya Resilience– Theory of Change
Theory of Change
1. Introduction
The Resilience Thematic Group’s Theory of Change outlines the strategies, outputs, outcomes and
targeted impact of the project. This is elaborated in visual format followed by a detailed narrative
which explains the inter-relations between the visually presented strategies, outputs, outcomes and
impact.
1
SNV V4CP Inception report – November 2016
Kenya Resilience– Theory of Change
Institutional
Capacity
Development
CSOs
Institutional
capacity
improved
(A)
Improved
accountability
mechanism(nati
Increased CSO
(CEMIRIDE/RAP/
KLMC)participation
in
issues surrounding
pastoralism and
climate change at
meetings, multistakeholder
platforms and
alliances (CSO Climate
onal and county
budget process,
legislative process)
(G)
Growth of business and private financial
investment in products and services
(insurance, credit facilities) for pastoralists
with deliberate focus on gender (I)
Change Coalition, KCCWG, PLF,
DLCI, ASAL Forum, KLMC and
ADA)with
governments (NDMA,
Evidence
Generation
Evidence
appropriately
packaged and
disseminated
for policy
advocacy
(B)
NEMA and Ministries
(livestock, Environment and
water))and
the private
sector(KEPSA, KNCC and
Kenya Leather Development
Council)
(D)
Increased
collaboration
between CSOs,
Private Sector and
Government
(CSO Climate Change
Coalition, KCCWG, PLF, DLCI,
ASAL Forum, KLMC, ADA
Consortium, NDMA,
Ministries, KEPSA,
KNCC,Kenya Leather
DevelopmentCouncil)(F)
Strategic
Policy
Advocacy
STRATEGIES OUTPUTS
Advocacy
plans and
strategies
available
(C)
Increased Influence of
CSOs in Climate Change
Policy processes (Co-
Appropriate allocation of
national and county
resources addressing
climate change, with the
burden on pastoralist
communities and women
given specific recognition
(J)
Improved
political will at
national and
county levels
in addressing
climate
change and
change in
public attitude
towards
pastoralism
(H)
Inclusive policies,
regulations and
frameworks developed,
adopted and implemented
or detrimental policies
prevented
Improved
service
delivery to
pastoralists by
government
and private
sector in
addressing
challenges of
climate change
(L)
(Including Customary Bills, , County
Emergency Bills, County Climate Change
Adaptation Fund Bill, Co-management
policy, salesyards bills, NLMP, CC Strategy,
Action Plan, NCAct 2016)
Pastoralist communities resilient to climate
change
2. Visual representation of the Theory of Change
(K)
management, CIs and
related national polcies)
(E)
SHORT-TERM OUTCOMES
MID-TERM OUTCOMES
LONG-TERM OUTCOMES
IMPACT
2
SNV V4CP Inception report – November 2016
Kenya Resilience– Theory of Change
a. Causal linkages
Our program seeks to positively influence development, revision, adoption and implementation of
policy and regulations addressing climate change with specific interest in improving resilience of
pastoralist communities.
The policy frameworks we will target include: the National Climate Change Response Strategy,
National Climate Change Action Plan, National Environmental Policy, Climate Change Act, National
Livestock Policy, National Budget Policy Statements, National Policy for Disaster Management and
National Policy for the Sustainable Development of the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya at the
national level. At the County levels, policies of interest will include County Integrated Development
Plans, County Climate Change Fund Bills, County Emergency Funds Bills, County Customary Bills,
Livestock Sales Yard Bills, County Government Finance Bills and County Climate Change Policies.
Enactment and implementation of policies and inclusive legal frameworks should lead to the
integration of pastoralists’ representatives in climate change decision-making structures and
processes. The targeted processes for pastoralists’ participation and engagement under the project
include: the County Climate Planning Committees, County Steering Groups; the National Climate
Change Council as stipulated in the Climate Change Act 2016; the National Drought Management
Authority Drought Contingency Fund; as well as the Kenya Climate Change Working Group
represented by state and non-state actors.
The project goal is to increase pastoralist resilience to climate change by enhancing their voice in
climate change policy formulation and implementation in Kenya. The initiative is premised on three
key strategies:
1. Institutional Capacity Building
2. Evidence Generation and Dissemination
3. Strategic Advocacy Initiatives
1. Capacity development
SNV will work with partner CSOs under the resilience thematic group to build their capacities in
leadership, advocacy, utilisation of data and evidence, knowledge in climate change resilience and
business development in the sector. With capacities strengthened, CSOs will be more
knowledgeable on the sector, able to accurately articulate climate change issues and engage more
widely in the sector (D), and develop strategic collaborations (F) as a result of improved business
development With increased collaborations and alliances with sector players, CSOs influence on
climate change issues will increase (E) drawing government attention and political will (H) to
engage constructively in addressing climate change policy.Structured collaboration with
government will enhance accountability (G) and enhance political will (H) to develop and adopt
inclusive policies (K) – pastoralists (elders and women) and private sector views incorporated. This
will promote appropriate budget allocation to climate change resilience programs (J) for pastoralists
and encourage business investment (I) resulting in improved services for pastoralist communities
(L) – improved operation of livestock markets and resource (water and pasture) management.
2. Evidence generation
Under the Evidence Generation Strategy, the project, aside from providing evidence on available
legal frameworks to engage on climate change, will address gaps identified in the context analysis.
Separate research will be conducted to understand the role and significance of
traditional/customary institutions and effectiveness of models such as co-management of livestock
markets in addressing climate change resilience for pastoralists in Kenya. Research will also cover
the other knowledge gaps highlighted in the context analysis including climate change and gender
with specific focus on pastoralist in Kenya. Specifically the research target will focus on how gender
and intergenerational aspects can be mainstreamed in climate change resilience in pastoral
communities Further, budgetary allocation in Livestock sector in ASAL Counties; gaps in the legal
3
SNV V4CP Inception report – October 2016
Kenya Resilience– Theory of Change
frameworks for promotion of pastoralists voice in climate change dialogues; related to this project
will be analysed.
Information generated from the research will be packaged for CSOs, Government Agencies,
International Organisations, Private Sector, Media, Community Based Organisations, Research
Institutions and policymakers at County and National levels. Information shared will increase
awareness and knowledge on pastoralist issues regarding climate change allowing them to
collaborate and participate articulately in meetings, multi-stakeholder platforms and alliances with
governments and the private sector, increasing political goodwill eventually leading to enactment
and implementation of policies.
3. Strategic policy advocacy initiatives
The researches undertaken will generate evidence that will inform our advocacy strategies
(lobbying, media campaigns) and at the same time make available material that will be used in the
advocacy processes including:




Policy briefs
Budget analysis reports
Scoping/Market survey reports
Lobby briefs
Effective use of the evidence material for target groups (policy makers, bureaucrats, private sector,
pastoralists and pastoral leaders) will contribute to increased participation (D) and influence (E) of
CSOs in improving pastoralists’ voice in climate change policy processes. Structured collaborations
between CSOs, Government and Private sector (F) using provisions for inclusion will enhance
accountability (G) and increase political will (H) to engage pastoralists in development, adoption
and implementation of inclusive policies, regulations and frameworks (K). Appropriate budget
allocations at national and county level (J) and growth of businesses and private financial
investment for pastoralists (I) resulting will lead to improved service delivery (L) to pastoralists and
enhance their resilience to climate shocks.
Many county policies are due for review like the County Integrated Development Plan (CIDP) and
many sector strategic plans like the one for water, environment and natural resources, and
participation of pastoralists in these initiatives will be the major activities the resilience team will
seek to lobby. Additionally, the climate change fund legislation and the customary natural resource
management legislation require inputs from the lowest level when formulating, lobbying by CSOs
for community inclusion in the process will ensure that policy makers remain accountable.
b. Assumptions
The resilience thematic group considers the following assumptions in undertaking the voice for
change partnership project:

That regular meetings with stakeholders will lead to collaborative policy advocacy initiatives

That policies enacted and /or reviewed will be implemented fully to promote pastoralist
voice in climate change dialogue

That gender and intergenerational issues will be considered in pastoralists’ participation in
climate change resilience initiatives.

Implementing partners will receive adequate support in a timely manner from SNV to
implement planned activities

That policy makers and bureaucrats will be responsive to our policy campaigns of
amplifying pastoralists voice
4
SNV V4CP Inception report – October 2016
Kenya Resilience– Theory of Change
c. Risks

There is risk that the upcoming 2017 general election may record incidences of unrest,
alter policy development focus and thereby affect implementation of some activities during
the campaign and election period. As a mitigation strategy, project action plans will factor
in the activities in the elections and campaign calendar to take advantage of complimentary
events and minimise conflicts accordingly.

Powerful and influential actors from non-pastoralist communities may oppose or even fight
initiatives to amplify pastoralists’ voice in climate change agenda. To mitigate this, the
project partners will work with the pastoralist leaders’ forum (PLF) which provides a strong
united front for advocacy of pastoralists’ issues. Also, we will advocate for policy that does
not disenfranchise any community.

Newly elected and appointed leaders/civil servants following 2017 elections may
discontinue collaborating with the program as a predecessor did. However, partners will
work closely with senior officials at ministries as well, employed by public service board and
not appointed by president to ensure continuity.
5