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Forests & Oceans Ecosystem services, climate change impacts & solutions Forests and Oceans: for the People, for the Climate Paris CoP21 Side Event, 8 December 2015 WWF International Image: NASA Image: C. Mittermeier Prof Brendan Mackey, PhD IUCN Council, Regional Councilor for Oceania Director, Climate Change Response Program, Griffith University, Australia www.griffith.edu.au/climate-change-response-program Forests & Oceans are key Earth system components Of the total emissions from human activities during the period 20042013, about 44% accumulated in the atmosphere, 26% in the ocean and 30% on land. Source: Mackey (2014) Significance, ww.significancemagazine.org February 19-23; Global Carbon Project Forests & carbon Image: S. Rees Forest are under multiple human pressures Source: Mackey et al. (2015) Conservation Letters DOI: 10.1111/conl.12120 Loss of pre-agricultural forest cover At least 35% Remaining forest that is primary forest 36% Remaining primary forest in protected areas 22% Primary forest carbon stocks relative to 30-70% more carbon secondary & degraded forests Current estimates of non-ocean global C stocks Pg C Total deforestation would increase atmospheric CO2 by up to 100 ppm Source: IPCC AR5 WGI; House et al. (2002) Glob. Change Biol. 8, 1047–1052 Potential for tropical forests in stabilizing [atmCO2] Currently, estimate of emissions from deforestation & degradation account for at least 1/10 of annual greenhouse gas emissions, i.e. > 1 billion tonnes of carbon (or 3.67 billion tonnes of CO2) each year1 Stopping deforestation and degradation, plus regrowth of secondary forests, plus targeted reforestation would reduce total emissions by as much as 5 billion tonnes of carbon each year, i.e. a reduced source of 1 billion tonnes and an increased sinks of 4 billion tonnes each year Absorption of carbon by tropical forests could offset much of the release of fossil fuel carbon between now and 2050, stabilizing and then reducing [atm CO2] within a few decades, and providing a bridge to a fossil-fuel-free world 2 Sources: 1Global Carbon Project 2014; 2 Houghton et al. (2015) NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 5 | DECEMBER; ScienceDaily.com Forests & water Image: S. Rees Forests influence regional climate: water recycling Forests influence watershed hydrology: water flow & quality /clear-fell /clear fell From: State of Environment Report 1996; http://www.ea.gov.au/soe/soe96/pubs/chap07.pdf Image: D.Lindenmayer Climate change impacts on forests Image: S. Rees Climate change impacts on ecosystems Shifts in species distributions & ecosystem composition Altered process rates: photosynthesis, respiration & nutrient cycling Changed fire regimes & hydrological regimes Breakdown in co-evolved & ecological species interactions Novel ecosystems & ecosystem loss Biome shifts Changes to vegetation structure & composition Reduced/increased ecosystem productivity & carbon stocks Many species face forced migration or extinction Ecoregional global concentrations of terrestrial and marine climate change vulnerable species. Source: Michela Pacifici et al. PUBLISHED ONLINE: 25 FEBRUARY 2015 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2448 Oceans Image: U.N. Ocean ecosystem-benefits Climate regulation • Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 • Of the total emissions from human activities during the period 2004-2013, about 26% accumulated in the world’s oceans Oceanic phytoplankton produce 50% of the world's oxygen Food Security - more than one billion people worldwide rely on the ocean for their primary source of protein Biodiversity - an estimated 50-80% of all life on Earth is found under the ocean surface Economic prosperity - if the world's seas and oceans were a national economy, they would be worth around $24 trillion, making it the world's seventh largest economy Sources: WWF (2015); Global Carbon Project (2015); UNESCO Blue carbon We have overlooked the key role coastal marine ecosystems mangroves, seagrasses and saltmarshes - play as carbon sinks and reservoirs Source: NOAA Coastal ecosystem services Mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses support coastal water quality, healthy fisheries, and coastal protection against floods and storms Over the period 1997-2011, estimated losses in the value of benefits because of loss of ecosystem area were $7.2 trillion per year for tidal marshes Mangroves are estimated to be worth at least US$1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services that support coastal livelihoods and human populations around the world Source: Blue Carbon Initiative Climate change impacts on oceans Rising sea levels Altered ocean currents Increase intensity of tropical cyclones Warming Sources: IPCC; NYT; Wikipedia; EPA Ocean acidification A pteropod shell showing dissolved ridges, abrasions and cloudiness. Credit National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Solutions? Climate change will interact with many existing threats to biodiversity & ecosystems, often resulting in even greater negative impacts, e.g. weeds Therefore, key climate strategy for land and oceans is to promote natural adaptive capacity & resilience by Reducing anthropogenic stressors Protecting and restoring biodiversity Enhancing connectivity