Download - Intact Primary Forest

Forests & Oceans
Ecosystem services, climate change
impacts & solutions
Forests and Oceans: for the People, for the Climate
Paris CoP21 Side Event, 8 December 2015
WWF International
Image: NASA
Image: C. Mittermeier
Prof Brendan Mackey, PhD IUCN Council, Regional Councilor for Oceania
Director, Climate Change Response Program, Griffith University, Australia
www.griffith.edu.au/climate-change-response-program
Forests & Oceans are key Earth system components
Of the total emissions from human activities during the period 20042013, about 44% accumulated in the atmosphere, 26% in the ocean and
30% on land.
Source: Mackey (2014) Significance, ww.significancemagazine.org February 19-23; Global Carbon Project
Forests & carbon
Image: S. Rees
Forest are under multiple human pressures
Source: Mackey et al. (2015) Conservation Letters
DOI: 10.1111/conl.12120
Loss of pre-agricultural forest cover At least 35%
Remaining forest that is primary forest 36%
Remaining primary forest in protected areas 22%
Primary forest carbon stocks relative to 30-70% more carbon
secondary & degraded forests
Current estimates of non-ocean global C stocks
Pg C
Total
deforestation
would
increase
atmospheric
CO2 by up to
100 ppm
Source: IPCC AR5 WGI; House et al. (2002) Glob. Change Biol. 8, 1047–1052
Potential for tropical forests in stabilizing [atmCO2]
Currently, estimate of emissions from deforestation & degradation account for
at least 1/10 of annual greenhouse gas emissions, i.e. > 1 billion tonnes of
carbon (or 3.67 billion tonnes of CO2) each year1
Stopping deforestation and degradation, plus regrowth of secondary forests,
plus targeted reforestation would reduce total emissions by as much as 5
billion tonnes of carbon each year, i.e. a reduced source of 1 billion tonnes and
an increased sinks of 4 billion tonnes each year
Absorption of carbon by tropical forests could offset much of the release of
fossil fuel carbon between now and 2050, stabilizing and then reducing [atm
CO2] within a few decades, and providing a bridge to a fossil-fuel-free world 2
Sources: 1Global Carbon Project 2014; 2 Houghton et al. (2015) NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
| VOL 5 | DECEMBER; ScienceDaily.com
Forests & water
Image: S. Rees
Forests influence regional climate: water recycling
Forests influence watershed hydrology: water flow &
quality
/clear-fell
/clear fell
From: State of Environment Report 1996; http://www.ea.gov.au/soe/soe96/pubs/chap07.pdf
Image: D.Lindenmayer
Climate change impacts on forests
Image: S. Rees
Climate change impacts on ecosystems
Shifts in species distributions &
ecosystem composition
Altered process rates:
photosynthesis, respiration &
nutrient cycling
Changed fire regimes &
hydrological regimes
Breakdown in co-evolved &
ecological species interactions
Novel ecosystems &
ecosystem loss
Biome shifts
Changes to vegetation
structure & composition
Reduced/increased
ecosystem productivity &
carbon stocks
Many species face forced migration or extinction
Ecoregional global concentrations of terrestrial and marine climate change vulnerable species.
Source: Michela Pacifici et al. PUBLISHED ONLINE: 25 FEBRUARY 2015 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2448
Oceans
Image: U.N.
Ocean ecosystem-benefits
 Climate regulation
• Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system,
accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010
• Of the total emissions from human activities during the period 2004-2013, about
26% accumulated in the world’s oceans
 Oceanic phytoplankton produce 50% of the world's oxygen
 Food Security - more than one billion people worldwide rely on the ocean for their
primary source of protein
 Biodiversity - an estimated 50-80% of all life on Earth is found under the ocean
surface
 Economic prosperity - if the world's seas and oceans were a national economy, they
would be worth around $24 trillion, making it the world's seventh largest economy
Sources: WWF (2015); Global Carbon Project (2015); UNESCO
Blue carbon
We have overlooked the key role coastal marine ecosystems mangroves, seagrasses and saltmarshes - play as carbon sinks and
reservoirs
Source: NOAA
Coastal ecosystem services
 Mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses
support coastal water quality, healthy
fisheries, and coastal protection against floods
and storms
 Over the period 1997-2011, estimated losses
in the value of benefits because of loss of
ecosystem area were $7.2 trillion per year
for tidal marshes
 Mangroves are estimated to be worth at least
US$1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services
that support coastal livelihoods and human
populations around the world
Source: Blue Carbon Initiative
Climate change impacts on oceans
Rising sea levels
Altered ocean currents
Increase
intensity
of tropical
cyclones
Warming
Sources: IPCC; NYT; Wikipedia; EPA
Ocean acidification
A pteropod shell
showing dissolved
ridges, abrasions
and cloudiness.
Credit National
Oceanic and
Atmospheric
Administration
Solutions?
Climate change will interact with many
existing threats to biodiversity &
ecosystems, often resulting in even greater
negative impacts, e.g. weeds
Therefore, key climate strategy for land and
oceans is to promote natural adaptive
capacity & resilience by
 Reducing anthropogenic stressors
 Protecting and restoring biodiversity
 Enhancing connectivity