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WMO Global Observing Systems for Climate Monitoring Measurement Challenges for Global Observation Systems for Climate Change Monitoring Traceability, Stability and Uncertainty Wenjian ZHANG Director, Observing and Information Systems Department World Meteorological Organization WMO in The United Nations System International Court of Justice General Assembly Economic and Social Council Main and other sessional committees Standing committees and ad-hoc bodies Other subsidiary organs and related bodies UNRWA IAEA INSTRAW UNCHS UNCTAD UNDCP UNDP UNEP UNFPA UNHCR UNICEF UNIFEM UNITAR UNU WFC WFP ITC FUNCTIONAL COMMISIONS REGIONAL COMMISSIONS SESSIONAL AND STANDING COMMITTEES EXPERT, AD-HOC AND RELATED BODIES ILO FAO UNESCO WHO Security Council Military Staff Committe Standing committees and ad-hoc bodies Secretariat Trusteeship Council UNTSO UNMOGIP UNFICYP UNDOF UNIFIL UNIKOM UNAVEM II ONUSAL MINURSO UNPROFOR UNOSOM II UNOMIG UNOMIL UNMIH UNAMIR UNMOT World Bank Group IBRD IDA IFC MIGA IMF ICAO UPU ITU WMO World Meteorological Organization IMO WIPO UN programmes and organs (representative list only) IFAD Specialized agencies and other autonomous organizations UNIDO within the system WTO Other commissions, committees and ad-hoc related bodies Dr W. Zhang, WMO Presentation @ WMO-BIPM Workshop, Geneva, Suisse WMO/OMM Organizational Structure of WMO (189 Members ) CONGRESS Executive Council Regional Associations Technical Commissions Working Groups Rapporteurs Working Groups Rapporteurs Other Joint Bodies WCRP , IPCC GCOS Working Groups Panel of Experts Secretary-General Secretariat Dr W. Zhang, WMO Presentation @ WMO-BIPM Workshop, Geneva, Suisse WMO/OMM WMO Observing Systems-Firsts • • • • • 1780: First international observing network ( 40 weather stations with standardized observations), extending over Europe and North America, led to the development of synoptic weather charts over a large area. 1873: First International Meteorological Congress, facilitated coordinated observations and instrument standardization, the establishment of the International Meteorological Organization (IMO), the predecessor of WMO 1896: First international cloud-atlas. First two International Polar Years, during the periods 1882-1883 and 1932-1933, on a scale that exceeded the capabilities of any single nation. WMO, created in 1950. 2010: 60 years of services for your safety and well-being. The longest available instrumental record of Temperature Key Values of the Organization • • The Global Nature of the Weather, Climate and Water issues International Collaboration and Cooperation to solve key problems which one single country can not solve: – – – Global coordinated standardization of meteorological observations and real time data exchange for meteorological services International cooperation on Disaster Risk Reduction (weather, climate and water related) Joint efforts contribute to the better life, economic sectors and sustainable development. Outline I. WMO Global Observing Systems II. Climate Imperative III. WIGOS Concept Development WMO Global Observing Systems • World Weather Watch - Global Observing System (GOS, 1963), WMO backbone system – Surface & Ocean in situ observing networks – Upper-air networks – Surface remote sensing (Radar) networks – Airborne and observations – Satellite constellations GOS Space-based development 1961 1990 1978 2009 WMO Global Observing Systems Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) 11 The GAW Mission – Systematic Monitoring Of Chemical Composition of the Atmosphere. – Analysis and Assessment in Support of International Conventions. – Development Of Air Pollution and Climate Predictive Capability – Understanding Climate Change 2.3 ppm/yr In 2008 2.0 ppm/yr 1.5 ppm/yr 1.6 ppm/yr 1.3 ppm/yr The rate of rise (ppm/yr) is increasing GAW Statustreffen 16 17 March 14 WMO Global Observing Systems WMO Hydrological Cycle Observing System Assessment of the quantity and quality of water resources in order to meet the needs of society, mitigation of waterrelated hazards global environment quality WMO Co-sponsored Observing Systems --Global Climate Observing System WCC-2 1990 GCOS UNFCCC 1992 GCOS PLAN 1995 FIRST ADEQUACY REPORT 1999 SECOND ADEQUACY REPORT 2003 UNFCCC COP 9 2003 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN IN SUPPORT OF UNFCCC (IP-04) 2004 SATELLITE SUPPLEMENT 2007 UNFCCC SBSTA 30 2009 UPDATED IMPLEMENTATION PLAN IN SUPPORT OF UNFCCC (IP-10) 2010 SATELLITE SUPPLEMENT PROGRESS REPORT 2009 WMO Co-sponsored Global Observing Systems --Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) for Climate IOC, UNEP, WMO and ICSU Total in situ networks 61% March 2009 87% 100% 66% 81% 100% 54% 48% 79% 59% Milestones Drifters 2005 Argo 2007 Status against JCOMM targets TOGA, WOCE, CLIVAR, Argo: Global Ocean Observations Improved basis for an ocean prediction system Current coverage Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring Sites Database (TEMS) Who, what, where: 2060 monitoring sites 44 networks 1200 contact persons 120 environmental variables Interactive Maps Thematic modules related to biodiversity, coastal zones, forest, hydrology and mountain. Local Climate Estimates, Geology, Pedology and Hydrology data. Global Terrestrial Observing System Convergence of N.Hem and S.Hem Medium Range Forecast skill Dr W. Zhang, WMO Presentation @ WMO - BIPM Workshop, Geneva Outline I. WMO Global Observing Systems II. Climate Imperative III. WIGOS Concept Development New Challenges: Climate Change and severe disaster under this background. Evercomplex society need improved services. Hot & cold spells Climate Change River basin flooding Tropical cyclones Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Storm surges Ice Storms Dust storms Droughts Storm (winds) Wildland fires & haze Hail&Lightning Mud & landslides Flash floods Avalanches Tornadoes Global Challenges We Share As society becomes more complex we become more sensitive to natural and human induced variability. Global Hotspot study (World Bank with ProVention Consortium) Risk levels: levels: Top 30%:Red; Middle 30%:yellow; Lowest 40%: Blue: 35 countries have more than 5% pop in areas at risk from three or more hazards 96 countries have more than 10% pop in areas at risk from two or more hazards 160 countries have more than 25% pop in areas at risk from one or more hazards Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate Energy Water Resource Management Food security Transport Strong Wind Intensity Health Coastal Marine Hazards Tropical Cyclones Hazards’ intensity and frequency are increasing Industry Urban areas Heavy rainfall / Flood Exposure is increasing ! Heatwaves Frequency Need for disaster risk management WCC-3 : a historic event The road to WCC-3 1st WCC (1979) 2nd WCC (1990) Climate variability/change impacts on all socioeconomic sectors A Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) required A Cg-XV decision (2007) A 2-year preparatory process International Organizing Committee Preparation with Members Dr W. Zhang, WMO Presentation @ WMO - BIPM Workshop, Geneva World Climate Conference-3 Aug 31 – Sept 4, 2009, GENEVA WCC-3 High-level Declaration (approved on 3 September 2009) DO 1 We, Heads of State and Government, Ministers and Heads of Delegation present at the High-level Segment of the World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) in Geneva, noting the findings of the Expert Segment of the Conference; OP 1 Decide to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (hereafter referred to as “the Framework”) to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services; OP 2 Request the Secretary-General of WMO to convene within four months of the adoption of the Declaration an intergovernmental meeting of member states of the WMO to approve the terms of reference and to endorse the composition of a task force of high-level, independent advisors to be appointed by the Secretary-General of the WMO with due consideration to expertise, geographical and gender balance; Decide to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services OP 3 Decide that the task force will, after wide consultation with governments, partner organizations and relevant stakeholders, prepare a report, including recommendations on proposed elements of the Framework, to the Secretary-General of WMO within 12 months of the task force being set up. The report should contain findings and proposed next steps for developing and implementing a Framework. In the development of their report, the taskforce will take into account the concepts outlined in the annexed Brief Note; OP 4 Decide further that the report of the task force shall be circulated by the Secretary-General of WMO to Member States of the WMO for consideration at the next WMO Congress in 2011, with a view to the adoption of a Framework and a plan for its implementation; and OP 5 Invite the Secretary-General of WMO to provide the report to relevant organizations, including the UN Secretary-General. Dr W. Zhang, WMO Presentation @ WMO - BIPM Workshop, Geneva Components of Global Framework for Climate Services Government Water Water Agriculture Agriculture Water Health Health Health Transport Transport Sectoral Users Users User Interface User Programme Energy Energy Ecosystem Ecosystem Tourism Private Tourism sector Interface Programme Climate Services Information System System Climate Services Information Observations Research &and Monitoring Modeling and Prediction Research & Modeling and Prediction 29 A Seamless Prediction Framework Climate Change. Decades Outlook Seasons Months Boundary Conditions 2 Weeks Weather 1 Week Initial Conditions Days Watches Hours Warnings & Alert Coordination Adapted from: NOAA Minutes Environment State/Local Planning Health Energy Ecosystem Recreation Water Resource Planning Fire Weather Transportation Space Applications Water Management Protection of Life & Property Applications Agriculture Forecasts Climate Variability Hydropower Threats Assessments Years Forecast Lead Time Predictio n Guidance Anthropogenic Forcing Commerce Scenarios Forecast Uncertainty Centuries Studying Earth as a Complex System Atmosphere Surface SurfaceWinds Winds Precipitation Precipitation Reflection Reflection and and Transmission Transmission Evaporation Evaporation Transpiration Transpiration Surface SurfaceTemperature Temperature Circulation Circulation Surface SurfaceWinds Winds Precipitation Precipitation Reflection Reflection and and Transmission Transmission Surface Temperature Surface Temperature Evaporation Evaporation Currents Currents Upwelling Upwelling Land Infiltration Infiltration Runoff Runoff Nutrient Nutrient Loading Loading Surface Surface Temperature Temperature Currents Currents Ocean Overview of Weather and Climate Models and the Required Observations Mid-1970s Atmosphere Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present Day Early 2000s? Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Weather Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Land Surface Climate Variability Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice Sulphate Aerosol Need an Integrated Global Observing System meet all requirements Sulphate Aerosol Sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Aerosol Carbon Cycle Carbon Cycle Dynamic Vegetation Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Change Importance of observations : From Observations to Consequences Understanding Analysis Observations Monitoring Validation Consequences Assimilation Models Initialization Predictions The availability of new observations strongly motivates advances in understanding, prediction, and application. Climate Model vs Observed Precipitation Global Intensification of the hydrological cycle ? Models indicate trend -observations don’t confirm PREDICTED Errors don’t allow proof OBSERVED Outline I. WMO Global Observing Systems II. Climate Imperative III. WIGOS Concept Development WIGOS: Overview CONGRESS XV (2007) • High priority -- “Towards Enhanced Integration between the WMO Observing Systems” (WIGOS) to support weather, climate, water and related environmental services WMO Executive Council • Established a WG on WIGOS-WIS – Develop an WIGOS Implementation Plan – Refine the WIS-Implementation Plan – Monitor the Progress of the Pilot and Demo projects WIGOS Vision • WIGOS will establish an integrated, comprehensive and coordinated observing system to satisfy in a costeffective and sustained manner the evolving observing requirements of WMO Members and enhance coordination with partners for the benefit of society. Scope: WIGOS will • Build upon the existing observing components: – WWW Global Observing System (GOS) – Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) – World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) • and will capitalize on existing, new and emerging technologies. • Improve access to and utilization of surfacebased observations and products from cosponsored systems such as GTOS, GOOS and GCOS through enhanced coordination with partner organizations. Improving Value and Availability of Information • WIGOS will address improved value and availability of information via three areas of integration and standardization: – At the Instruments and Methods of Observation Level – At the Data, Product & Metadata Exchange Level (WIS) – At the Data Utilization Level - QMF principles • WIGOS Success rely on Measurements science and technology: Great Challenge Three areas of Integrations/Standardizations Instruments and methods of observation standards Users WIS Observations for Weather, Climate, Water, Ocean, … QMF Standards Data Processing and Forecasting Standards for Data & Metadata exchange & Discovery, Access and Retrieval (DAR) Services Archiving Active Quality Management No.1 Priority: Completeness : fill-in observing gaps Key Areas: How to develop and sustain Ocean and Land (including Polar Regions and Cryosphere) observations on operational basis from both In-situ and space? The ENSO • • The predictability rely on sub-surface data Satellite can not observe sub-surface now The Arctic Ocean ice has been there for 2 million years. 1979 2003 Barrow, Alaska Tiksi, Russia Ny-Alesund, Svalbard Eureka, Canada Alert, Canada Summit, Greenland Establishing Intensive Atmospheric Observatories In the Arctic is the component of NOAA/SEARCH being directed by ESRL Countries Where Cryosphere Occurs 95 countries identified with cryospheric components Cryosphere truly is global No. 2 Priority: Ensure the quality of the observations to meet climate requirements Accuracy, Precision Representativeness Measurement traceability Long-time series stability Reducing uncertainty …… WMO Guidelines on: “Climate Observation Networks & Systems” “Metadata and Homogeneity“ “Data Rescue” “Data Management” Guidelines on maintaining national climate networks Length (>>10 years) and homogeneity of data records change of sensors Climate scenarios…. -> baseline climatologies with scenarios Studying Earth as a Dynamic System Forces acting on the Earth system Earth IMPACTS system response Feedback World Radiometric Reference (WRR)Standard for Solar Irradiance • Introduced by WMO in 1980 based on the comparison of 15 fully characterized instruments • Maintained by PMOD in Davos through a group of instruments • Disseminated worldwide by the means of intercomparisons held every 5 years GAW-VOC Target Compounds and the future CCL Responsibilities NMHC MTs DMS, ACT oxyVOC NPL (National Physical Laboratory, GB) NIST (National Institute of Standard and Technology, USA) KRISS (Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science, South Korea) NMI-VSL (National Metrological Institute Van Swinden Laboratorium, NL) The responsibilities for the individual compounds are shared among several laboratories (institutions). Long records of Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), and Nitrous Oxide (N2O) concentrations all show sharp increases Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide Measurements before about 1960 are mostly from bubbles trapped in glacial ice. After that, WMO- coordinated instrumental observations abound. Sea level Observations: 100 fold improvement in 30 years Globally averaged sea level Jason-1 mm TOPEX/Poseidon Does this represent a long-term trend caused by global warming or just natural variability? S. Nerem (U. Colorado) Multi-satellite inter-calibration is so important to long-time data series Operational Calibration 253 252 NOAA10 NOAA11 251 NOAA12 NOAA14 250 Linear (NOAA10) Trend: -1 Linear (NOAA11) -1 N10 = - 0.40 K Dec , N11 = 0.80 K Dec , 0.36 K Dec-1, N14 = 0.43 K Dec-1 249 N12 = Linear (NOAA12) Linear (NOAA14) 248 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Improved Calibration 253 NOAA10 252 NOAA11 NOAA12 251 NOAA14 Linear (NOAA10) 250 Trend: -1 N10 = -0.39 K Dec , -1 N12 = 0.43 K Dec , 249 -1 N11 = 0.58 K Dec Linear (NOAA11) -1 N14 = 0.31 K Dec Linear (NOAA12) Linear (NOAA14) 248 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Improved calibrated radiances using SNO- improved differences between sensors by order of magnitude. 254 Combined Trend = 0.17 K Dec-1 253 Linear (Combined) 252 251 250 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Trends for nonlinear calibration algorithm using SNO cross calibration 0.20 K Decade-1 Global Satellite Inter-Calibration System (GSICS) -an excellent example and the most important issues for global satellites integration. • To improve the use of satellite global observations. • To provide for the ability to create stable long-term climate data sets. • To ensure instruments meet specification, pre-launch tests are traceable to SI standards. Simultaneous Nadir Overpass (SNO) Next step: Global satellite products validation Maximizing Data Quality and Usability Satellites & sensors GOS Satellite data Consistent Calibrated data sets GSICS Essential Climate products SCOPE-CM Users • Sustained CO-ordinated Processing of Environmental satellite data for Climate Monitoring (SCOPE-CM) • Global products • Sustained into the future • Coordinated globally SENSORS CCSDS (mux, code, frame) & Encrypt Compression Aux. Sensor Data ENVIRONMENTAL SOURCE COMPONENTS RDR Production RDR Level Filtration A/D Conversion Flux Manipulation C3S Comm Processing Delivered Raw Packetization Detection Cal. Source Comm Receiver TDR Level SDR Production SDR Level EDR Level EDR Production IDPS Comm Xmitter Data Store OTHER SUBSYSTEMS SPACE SEGMENT Satellite climate products delivered at multiple levels-Traceability strategy Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observations(IGACO) Strategy All Data Delivery Cal/Val & Quality Assurance World Integrated Globally Gridded Data Archive Data Centres Reanalysis (WIDAC) Real Time Data Delivery Observations • Satellite • Aircraft • Surface (in situ, remote) Applications Forecast Models & Data Assimilation Observation Optimization Air/Surface Exchange & Emissions - Weather Prediction - Air Quality Prediction - Global Change Detection - Environ. Assessment - Ecosystem Impacts - Seasonal Forecast - Emergency Response - Climate Research - etc. etc. No.3 Priority WIGOS need great efforts to Turn Observations into value-added climate Products, Information and Knowledge Special attention to the Remote sensing measurements WIGOS need Turning Observations into Knowledge and Information • Translating raw observations of Earth into useful information • The decadal vision are: – (1) sustained observations from space for research and monitoring – (2) surface-based and airborne observations that are necessary for a complete observing system – (3) models and data assimilation systems that allow effective use of the observations to make useful analyses and forecasts, and – (4) planning and other activities that strengthen and sustain the Earth observation and information system. knowledge data products information • priority: turning observations into products and information • Great challenges on: – Sciences – Technologies – Coordination – Collaboration – Cooperation – …. IGACO-Aerosols Global Products GAW Calibration & Quality Assurance (GAWNET PFRs) World Integrated Data Network: e.g. WDC-NILU Sat. Centres (WDC-RSAT) Reanalysis AERONET, etc WMO Real-Time Data Distribution: WMO Information System (WIS) Observations: Satellite: All Sources MODIS, CALYPSO, GEOs Aircraft: MOZAIC/IAGOS Surface-based: Remote sensing: AOD & GALION In situ: PM & optical In situ: Chemistry Assimilation of Real-Time Data By Forecast Models (e.g. GEMS; WMO SDS-WAS) Data Uses/Applications 1. Public Air Quality Warnings 2. Public SDS Warnings 3. Public Aerosol Bulletins 4. Surface and air transport 5. Scientific Assessments (IPCC, Ozone, etc) 6. Improved Weather Forecasts Leaders: Leaders:WMO/GAW WMO/GAW&&Satellite SatelliteOrgs Orgs&&ENV ENVOrgs Orgs Need Great Global Consolidation Efforts WIGOS Benefits • Improved observing networks operations • Increased access to observational data and products with improved quality • More efficient use of all available resources (cost-effectiveness) • Better preparedness to incorporate new observing systems and to interface with WMO co-sponsored observing systems Comprehensive observations will improve our climate services Let’s work together for better life and a better world The Earth’s climate is a complex system… …understanding it requiring comprehensive observations Thanks for your attention ! The production of energy and population is evident in views of the world at night