Download WMO Global Observing Systems for Climate Monitoring

WMO Global Observing Systems
for Climate Monitoring
Measurement Challenges for
Global Observation Systems for
Climate Change Monitoring
Traceability, Stability and Uncertainty
Wenjian ZHANG
Director, Observing and Information Systems Department
World Meteorological Organization
WMO in The United Nations System
International
Court
of Justice
General
Assembly
Economic and
Social Council
 Main and other
sessional committees
 Standing committees
and ad-hoc bodies
 Other subsidiary organs
and related bodies
 UNRWA
 IAEA
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INSTRAW
UNCHS
UNCTAD
UNDCP
UNDP
UNEP
UNFPA
UNHCR
UNICEF
UNIFEM
UNITAR
UNU
WFC
 WFP
 ITC
 FUNCTIONAL
COMMISIONS
 REGIONAL
COMMISSIONS
 SESSIONAL
AND STANDING
COMMITTEES
 EXPERT, AD-HOC AND
RELATED BODIES
 ILO
 FAO
 UNESCO
 WHO
Security
Council
 Military Staff Committe
 Standing committees
and ad-hoc bodies
Secretariat
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Trusteeship
Council
UNTSO
UNMOGIP
UNFICYP
UNDOF
UNIFIL
UNIKOM
UNAVEM II
ONUSAL
MINURSO
UNPROFOR
UNOSOM II
UNOMIG
UNOMIL
UNMIH
UNAMIR
UNMOT
World Bank Group
 IBRD
 IDA
 IFC
 MIGA
 IMF
 ICAO
 UPU
 ITU
 WMO
World Meteorological
Organization
 IMO
 WIPO
 UN programmes and organs (representative list only)
 IFAD
 Specialized agencies and other autonomous organizations
 UNIDO
within the system
 WTO
 Other commissions, committees and ad-hoc related bodies
Dr W. Zhang, WMO Presentation @ WMO-BIPM Workshop, Geneva, Suisse
WMO/OMM
Organizational Structure of WMO (189 Members )
CONGRESS
Executive Council
Regional Associations
Technical Commissions
Working Groups
Rapporteurs
Working Groups
Rapporteurs
Other Joint Bodies
WCRP , IPCC
GCOS
Working Groups
Panel of Experts
Secretary-General
Secretariat
Dr W. Zhang, WMO Presentation @ WMO-BIPM Workshop, Geneva, Suisse
WMO/OMM
WMO Observing Systems-Firsts
•
•
•
•
•
1780: First international observing network ( 40 weather stations
with standardized observations), extending over Europe and
North America, led to the development of synoptic weather charts
over a large area.
1873: First International Meteorological Congress, facilitated
coordinated observations and instrument standardization, the
establishment of the International Meteorological Organization
(IMO), the predecessor of WMO
1896: First international cloud-atlas.
First two International Polar Years, during the periods 1882-1883
and 1932-1933, on a scale that exceeded the capabilities of any
single nation.
WMO, created in 1950. 2010: 60 years of services for your safety
and well-being.
The longest available instrumental record of
Temperature
Key Values of the Organization
•
•
The Global Nature of the Weather, Climate and
Water issues
International Collaboration and Cooperation to
solve key problems which one single country
can not solve:
–
–
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Global coordinated standardization of
meteorological observations and real time data
exchange for meteorological services
International cooperation on Disaster Risk
Reduction (weather, climate and water related)
Joint efforts contribute to the better life, economic
sectors and sustainable development.
Outline
I.
WMO Global Observing Systems
II.
Climate Imperative
III. WIGOS Concept Development
WMO Global Observing Systems
• World Weather Watch - Global
Observing System (GOS, 1963),
WMO backbone system
– Surface & Ocean in situ
observing networks
– Upper-air networks
– Surface remote sensing
(Radar) networks
– Airborne and observations
– Satellite constellations
GOS Space-based development
1961
1990
1978
2009
WMO Global Observing Systems
Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW)
11
The GAW Mission
– Systematic Monitoring Of Chemical
Composition of the Atmosphere.
– Analysis and Assessment in Support of
International Conventions.
– Development Of Air Pollution and Climate
Predictive Capability
– Understanding Climate Change
2.3 ppm/yr
In 2008
2.0 ppm/yr
1.5 ppm/yr
1.6 ppm/yr
1.3 ppm/yr
The rate of rise
(ppm/yr) is
increasing
GAW Statustreffen 16 17 March
14
WMO Global Observing Systems
WMO Hydrological Cycle Observing System
Assessment of the
quantity and quality of
water resources in
order to meet the
needs of society,
mitigation of waterrelated hazards global
environment quality
WMO Co-sponsored Observing Systems
--Global Climate Observing System
WCC-2
1990
GCOS
UNFCCC
1992
GCOS PLAN
1995
FIRST
ADEQUACY
REPORT 1999
SECOND
ADEQUACY
REPORT 2003
UNFCCC
COP 9 2003
IMPLEMENTATION
PLAN IN
SUPPORT OF
UNFCCC (IP-04)
2004
SATELLITE
SUPPLEMENT
2007
UNFCCC
SBSTA 30
2009
UPDATED
IMPLEMENTATION
PLAN IN
SUPPORT OF
UNFCCC (IP-10)
2010
SATELLITE
SUPPLEMENT
PROGRESS
REPORT
2009
WMO Co-sponsored Global Observing Systems
--Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) for Climate
IOC, UNEP， WMO and ICSU
Total in situ networks
61%
March 2009
87%
100%
66%
81%
100%
54%
48%
79%
59%
Milestones
Drifters 2005
Argo 2007
Status against JCOMM targets
TOGA, WOCE, CLIVAR, Argo: Global Ocean Observations
Improved basis for an ocean prediction system
Current coverage
Terrestrial Ecosystem
Monitoring Sites
Database
(TEMS)
Who, what, where:
2060 monitoring sites
44 networks
1200 contact persons
120 environmental
variables
Interactive Maps
Thematic modules related
to biodiversity, coastal
zones, forest, hydrology
and mountain.
Local Climate Estimates,
Geology, Pedology and
Hydrology data.
Global Terrestrial
Observing System
Convergence of N.Hem and S.Hem
Medium Range Forecast skill
Dr W. Zhang, WMO Presentation @ WMO - BIPM Workshop, Geneva
Outline
I.
WMO Global Observing Systems
II.
Climate Imperative
III. WIGOS Concept Development
New Challenges: Climate Change and
severe disaster under this background. Evercomplex society need improved services.
Hot & cold spells
Climate Change
River basin flooding
Tropical cyclones
Heavy precipitations
(rain or snow)
Storm surges
Ice Storms
Dust storms
Droughts
Storm (winds)
Wildland fires
& haze
Hail&Lightning
Mud & landslides
Flash floods
Avalanches
Tornadoes
Global Challenges We Share
As society becomes more complex we become more
sensitive to natural and human induced variability.
Global Hotspot study (World Bank with ProVention Consortium)
Risk levels:
levels: Top 30%:Red; Middle 30%:yellow; Lowest 40%: Blue:
35 countries have more than 5% pop in areas at risk from three or more hazards
96 countries have more than 10% pop in areas at risk from two or more hazards
160 countries have more than 25% pop in areas at risk from one or more hazards
Increasing Risks under a
Changing Climate
Energy
Water Resource
Management
Food
security
Transport
Strong Wind
Intensity
Health
Coastal Marine Hazards
Tropical Cyclones
Hazards’ intensity
and frequency
are increasing
Industry
Urban areas
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Exposure is increasing !
Heatwaves
Frequency
Need for
disaster risk
management
WCC-3 : a historic event
The road to WCC-3
1st WCC (1979)
2nd WCC (1990)
Climate variability/change impacts
on all socioeconomic sectors
A Global Framework for Climate
Services (GFCS) required
A Cg-XV decision (2007)
A 2-year preparatory process
International Organizing
Committee
Preparation with Members
Dr W. Zhang, WMO Presentation @ WMO - BIPM Workshop, Geneva
World Climate Conference-3
Aug 31 – Sept 4, 2009, GENEVA
WCC-3 High-level Declaration
(approved on 3 September 2009)
DO 1 We, Heads of State and Government, Ministers and Heads of Delegation present at the High-level Segment
of the World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) in Geneva, noting the findings of the Expert Segment of the
Conference;
OP 1 Decide to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (hereafter referred to as “the Framework”) to
strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services;
OP 2 Request the Secretary-General of WMO to convene within four months of the adoption of the Declaration
an intergovernmental meeting of member states of the WMO to approve the terms of reference and to endorse the
composition of a task force of high-level, independent advisors to be appointed by the Secretary-General of the
WMO with due consideration to expertise, geographical and gender balance;
Decide to establish a
Global Framework for Climate Services
OP 3 Decide that the task force will, after wide consultation with governments, partner organizations and relevant
stakeholders, prepare a report, including recommendations on proposed elements of the Framework, to the
Secretary-General of WMO within 12 months of the task force being set up. The report should contain findings
and proposed next steps for developing and implementing a Framework. In the development of their report, the
taskforce will take into account the concepts outlined in the annexed Brief Note;
OP 4 Decide further that the report of the task force shall be circulated by the Secretary-General of WMO to
Member States of the WMO for consideration at the next WMO Congress in 2011, with a view to the adoption of
a Framework and a plan for its implementation; and
OP 5 Invite the Secretary-General of WMO to provide the report to relevant organizations, including the UN
Secretary-General.
Dr W. Zhang, WMO Presentation @ WMO - BIPM Workshop, Geneva
Components of
Global Framework for Climate Services
Government
Water
Water
Agriculture
Agriculture
Water
Health
Health
Health
Transport
Transport
Sectoral
Users
Users
User Interface
User
Programme
Energy
Energy
Ecosystem
Ecosystem
Tourism
Private
Tourism
sector
Interface
Programme
Climate
Services
Information
System System
Climate
Services
Information
Observations
Research &and
Monitoring
Modeling
and Prediction
Research &
Modeling and
Prediction
29
A Seamless Prediction Framework
Climate Change.
Decades
Outlook
Seasons
Months
Boundary
Conditions
2 Weeks
Weather
1 Week
Initial
Conditions
Days
Watches
Hours
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
Adapted from: NOAA
Minutes
Environment
State/Local
Planning
Health
Energy
Ecosystem
Recreation
Water Resource
Planning
Fire Weather
Transportation
Space
Applications
Water
Management
Protection of
Life & Property
Applications
Agriculture
Forecasts
Climate Variability
Hydropower
Threats
Assessments
Years
Forecast Lead Time
Predictio
n
Guidance
Anthropogenic
Forcing
Commerce
Scenarios
Forecast
Uncertainty
Centuries
Studying Earth as a Complex System
Atmosphere
Surface
SurfaceWinds
Winds
Precipitation
Precipitation
Reflection
Reflection and
and Transmission
Transmission
Evaporation
Evaporation
Transpiration
Transpiration
Surface
SurfaceTemperature
Temperature
Circulation
Circulation
Surface
SurfaceWinds
Winds
Precipitation
Precipitation
Reflection
Reflection and
and Transmission
Transmission
Surface
Temperature
Surface Temperature
Evaporation
Evaporation
Currents
Currents
Upwelling
Upwelling
Land
Infiltration
Infiltration
Runoff
Runoff
Nutrient
Nutrient Loading
Loading
Surface
Surface Temperature
Temperature
Currents
Currents
Ocean
Overview of Weather and Climate Models and the
Required Observations
Mid-1970s
Atmosphere
Mid-1980s
Early 1990s
Late 1990s
Present Day
Early 2000s?
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Weather
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Climate
Variability
Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Need an Integrated
Global Observing
System meet all
requirements
Sulphate
Aerosol
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Carbon Cycle
Dynamic
Vegetation
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Climate
Change
Importance of observations : From Observations to Consequences
Understanding
Analysis
Observations
Monitoring
Validation
Consequences
Assimilation
Models
Initialization
Predictions
The availability of new observations strongly motivates advances in
understanding, prediction, and application.
Climate Model vs Observed Precipitation


Global Intensification of
the hydrological cycle
?
Models indicate trend -observations don’t confirm
PREDICTED
 Errors don’t allow proof
OBSERVED
Outline
I.
WMO Global Observing Systems
II.
Climate Imperative
III. WIGOS Concept Development
WIGOS: Overview
CONGRESS XV (2007)
• High priority -- “Towards Enhanced Integration
between the WMO Observing Systems”
(WIGOS) to support weather, climate, water
and related environmental services
WMO Executive Council
• Established a WG on WIGOS-WIS
– Develop an WIGOS Implementation Plan
– Refine the WIS-Implementation Plan
– Monitor the Progress of the Pilot and Demo
projects
WIGOS Vision
• WIGOS will establish an integrated,
comprehensive
and
coordinated
observing system to satisfy in a costeffective and sustained manner the
evolving observing requirements of
WMO
Members
and
enhance
coordination with partners for the
benefit of society.
Scope: WIGOS will
• Build upon the existing observing components:
– WWW Global Observing System (GOS)
– Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW)
– World Hydrological Cycle Observing System
(WHYCOS)
• and will capitalize on existing, new and
emerging technologies.
• Improve access to and utilization of surfacebased observations and products from cosponsored systems such as GTOS, GOOS
and GCOS through enhanced coordination
with partner organizations.
Improving Value and
Availability of Information
• WIGOS will address improved value and
availability of information via three areas of
integration and standardization:
– At the Instruments and Methods of Observation
Level
– At the Data, Product & Metadata Exchange
Level (WIS)
– At the Data Utilization Level - QMF principles
• WIGOS Success rely on Measurements
science and technology: Great Challenge
Three areas of
Integrations/Standardizations
Instruments and methods of
observation standards
Users
WIS
Observations
for
Weather,
Climate,
Water,
Ocean, …
QMF Standards
Data
Processing and
Forecasting
Standards
for
Data & Metadata exchange
&
Discovery, Access and
Retrieval (DAR) Services
Archiving
Active Quality Management
No.1 Priority: Completeness : fill-in
observing gaps
Key Areas: How to develop and
sustain Ocean and Land (including
Polar Regions and Cryosphere)
observations on operational basis from
both In-situ and space?
The ENSO
•
•
The predictability rely on sub-surface data
Satellite can not observe sub-surface
now
The Arctic
Ocean ice has
been there for
2 million
years.
1979
2003
Barrow,
Alaska
Tiksi, Russia
Ny-Alesund,
Svalbard
Eureka, Canada
Alert, Canada
Summit, Greenland
Establishing Intensive
Atmospheric Observatories
In the Arctic is the component
of NOAA/SEARCH being
directed by ESRL
Countries Where Cryosphere Occurs
95 countries identified with cryospheric components
Cryosphere truly is global
No. 2 Priority: Ensure the quality of the
observations to meet climate requirements
Accuracy, Precision
Representativeness
Measurement traceability
Long-time series stability
Reducing uncertainty
……
WMO Guidelines on:
“Climate Observation Networks & Systems”
“Metadata and Homogeneity“
“Data Rescue”
“Data Management”
Guidelines on maintaining national climate networks
Length (>>10 years) and homogeneity
of data records
change of
sensors
Climate scenarios….
-> baseline
climatologies
with scenarios
Studying Earth as a Dynamic System
Forces acting
on the Earth
system
Earth
IMPACTS
system
response
Feedback
World Radiometric Reference (WRR)Standard for Solar Irradiance
• Introduced by WMO in
1980 based on the
comparison of 15 fully
characterized
instruments
• Maintained by PMOD
in Davos through a
group of instruments
• Disseminated worldwide by the means of
intercomparisons held
every 5 years
GAW-VOC Target Compounds and the
future CCL
Responsibilities
NMHC
MTs
DMS, ACT
oxyVOC
NPL (National Physical
Laboratory, GB)
NIST (National Institute of
Standard and Technology,
USA)
KRISS (Korea Research
Institute of Standards and
Science, South Korea)
NMI-VSL (National
Metrological Institute Van
Swinden Laboratorium, NL)
The responsibilities for the individual compounds are shared among several
laboratories (institutions).
Long records of Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), and
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) concentrations all show sharp increases
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
Measurements before about 1960 are mostly from bubbles trapped in glacial ice. After that,
WMO- coordinated instrumental observations abound.
Sea level Observations: 100 fold
improvement in 30 years
Globally averaged sea level
Jason-1
mm
TOPEX/Poseidon
Does this represent a long-term
trend caused by global warming
or just natural variability?
S. Nerem (U. Colorado)
Multi-satellite inter-calibration is so
important to long-time data series
Operational Calibration
253
252
NOAA10
NOAA11
251
NOAA12
NOAA14
250
Linear (NOAA10)
Trend:
-1
Linear (NOAA11)
-1
N10 = - 0.40 K Dec ,
N11 = 0.80 K Dec ,
0.36 K Dec-1,
N14 = 0.43 K Dec-1
249
N12 =
Linear (NOAA12)
Linear (NOAA14)
248
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Improved Calibration
253
NOAA10
252
NOAA11
NOAA12
251
NOAA14
Linear (NOAA10)
250
Trend:
-1
N10 = -0.39 K Dec ,
-1
N12 = 0.43 K Dec ,
249
-1
N11 = 0.58 K Dec
Linear (NOAA11)
-1
N14 = 0.31 K Dec
Linear (NOAA12)
Linear (NOAA14)
248
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Improved calibrated radiances using SNO- improved
differences between sensors by order of magnitude.
254
Combined
Trend = 0.17 K Dec-1
253
Linear (Combined)
252
251
250
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Trends for nonlinear
calibration algorithm using
SNO cross calibration
0.20 K Decade-1
Global Satellite Inter-Calibration System (GSICS)
-an excellent example and the most important issues for global
satellites integration.
• To improve the use of
satellite global observations.
• To provide for the ability to
create stable long-term
climate data sets.
• To ensure instruments meet
specification, pre-launch
tests are traceable to SI
standards.
Simultaneous Nadir
Overpass (SNO)
Next step: Global satellite products validation
Maximizing Data Quality and
Usability
Satellites
& sensors
GOS
Satellite
data
Consistent
Calibrated
data sets
GSICS
Essential
Climate
products
SCOPE-CM
Users
• Sustained CO-ordinated Processing of
Environmental satellite data for Climate
Monitoring (SCOPE-CM)
• Global products
• Sustained into the future
• Coordinated globally
SENSORS
CCSDS (mux, code, frame) &
Encrypt
Compression
Aux.
Sensor
Data
ENVIRONMENTAL
SOURCE
COMPONENTS
RDR
Production
RDR Level
Filtration
A/D Conversion
Flux
Manipulation
C3S
Comm
Processing
Delivered Raw
Packetization
Detection
Cal.
Source
Comm
Receiver
TDR Level
SDR
Production
SDR Level
EDR Level
EDR
Production
IDPS
Comm
Xmitter
Data
Store
OTHER
SUBSYSTEMS
SPACE SEGMENT
Satellite climate products delivered at
multiple levels-Traceability strategy
Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry
Observations(IGACO) Strategy
All Data
Delivery
Cal/Val
&
Quality
Assurance
World
Integrated
Globally Gridded
Data Archive
Data
Centres
Reanalysis
(WIDAC)
Real Time
Data Delivery
Observations
•
Satellite
•
Aircraft
•
Surface
(in situ, remote)
Applications
Forecast Models &
Data Assimilation
Observation
Optimization
Air/Surface Exchange & Emissions
- Weather Prediction
- Air Quality Prediction
- Global Change Detection
- Environ. Assessment
- Ecosystem Impacts
- Seasonal Forecast
- Emergency Response
- Climate Research
- etc. etc.
No.3 Priority
WIGOS need great efforts to Turn
Observations into value-added climate
Products, Information and Knowledge
Special attention to the Remote
sensing measurements
WIGOS need Turning Observations
into Knowledge and Information
• Translating raw observations of Earth into useful
information
• The decadal vision are:
– (1) sustained observations from space for research
and monitoring
– (2) surface-based and airborne observations that are
necessary for a complete observing system
– (3) models and data assimilation systems that allow
effective use of the observations to make useful
analyses and forecasts, and
– (4) planning and other activities that strengthen and
sustain the Earth observation and information system.
knowledge
data
products
information
• priority: turning
observations into
products and
information
• Great challenges on:
– Sciences
– Technologies
– Coordination
– Collaboration
– Cooperation
– ….
IGACO-Aerosols
Global Products
GAW Calibration
&
Quality Assurance
(GAWNET PFRs)
World Integrated
Data Network:
e.g. WDC-NILU
Sat. Centres (WDC-RSAT)
Reanalysis
AERONET, etc
WMO Real-Time Data Distribution:
WMO Information System (WIS)
Observations:
Satellite:
All Sources
MODIS,
CALYPSO, GEOs
Aircraft: MOZAIC/IAGOS
Surface-based:
Remote sensing: AOD &
GALION
In situ: PM & optical
In situ: Chemistry
Assimilation of
Real-Time Data
By
Forecast Models
(e.g. GEMS;
WMO SDS-WAS)
Data Uses/Applications
1.
Public Air Quality Warnings
2.
Public SDS Warnings
3.
Public Aerosol Bulletins
4.
Surface and air transport
5.
Scientific Assessments (IPCC,
Ozone, etc)
6.
Improved Weather Forecasts
Leaders:
Leaders:WMO/GAW
WMO/GAW&&Satellite
SatelliteOrgs
Orgs&&ENV
ENVOrgs
Orgs
Need Great Global Consolidation Efforts
WIGOS Benefits
• Improved observing networks operations
• Increased access to observational data
and products with improved quality
• More efficient use of all available
resources (cost-effectiveness)
• Better preparedness to incorporate new
observing systems and to interface with
WMO co-sponsored observing systems
Comprehensive observations will improve our climate services
Let’s work together for better life and a better world
The Earth’s climate is a
complex system…
…understanding it requiring
comprehensive observations
Thanks for your attention !
The production of energy and population is
evident in views of the world at night