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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE Challenges for management of freshwater ecosystems in Europe Martin Kernan Environmental Change Research Centre, University College London The consequences of anthropogenic actions on European freshwaters are considerable, increased ultra-violet irradiation; acidification by sulphur and nitrogen compounds; mobilisation of organic substances from soils; accelerated erosion and sedimentation in river channels; damming and diversion of river flows; eutrophication by nitrogen and phosphorus compounds; structural alteration of rivers for flood prevention in the interests of agriculture; fragmentation of habitats; discharge of alien substances, many of them toxic; and introduction of alien species and selective removal of others Restoration strategies • Acidification – Reduction in sulphur deposition (UNECE protocols) – Liming – Improved forestry practices Restoration strategies • Eutrophication: – Reduce external load – Create buffer strips – Remeandering of streams River habitat restoration Re-braiding Re-meandering Addition of woody debris Persistent Organic Pollutants Annex A (Elimination) Aldrin Chlordane Chlordecone Dieldrin Endrin Heptachlor Hexabromobiphenyl Hexabromodiphenyl ether and heptabromodiphenyl ether Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) Alpha hexachlorocyclohexane Beta hexachlorocyclohexane Lindane Mirex Pentachlorobenzene Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) Tetrabromodiphenyl ether and pentabromodiphenyl ether Toxaphene Annex B (Restriction) DDT Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid, its salts and perfluorooctane sulfonyl fluoride Annex C (Unintentional production) Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) Polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF) Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) Pentachlorobenzene Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) Monitoring system for the Water Framework Directive Restoration Biological indicators Metric 1 Metric 2 Metric 3 Restoration Composition and abundance Supporting physico-chemical parameters Metric 1 Metric 2 Quality class Restoration Metric 3 Oxygen, salinity, acidification, nutrients Restoration Supporting hydromorphological parameters Metric 1 Metric 2 Metric 3 Restoration Hydrological regime, morphological conditions eutrophication hydromorphology acidification other stressors WFD & HD increased drive for restoration and remediation – ‘good ecological status’ Future climate change In Europe Mean temperature anomaly for 2071-2100 • hotter everywhere • west-east and north- south gradients HadRM3 - A2a TEMP Future climate change In Europe Mean precipitation anomaly, 2071 - 2100 little change in mid-latitudes • wetter in the north • drier in the south HadRM3 A2a PRECIP Regional predictions are very uncertain, and much depends on the behaviour of the NAO / AO. Seasonality and extremes in temperature and precipitation regimes are also predicted to change. Such changes, would significantly affect the hydrology, chemistry and ecology of rivers, lakes and wetlands and interactions between these. Euro-limpacs : Integrated Project to Evaluate the Impacts of Global Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems Euro-limpacs is funded by the European Union under Thematic Sub-Priority 1.1.6.3 “Global Change and Ecosystems" of the 6th Framework Programme Co-ordinators: Environmental Change Research Centre, UCL Euro-limpacs aims and project structure An integrated project to assess: • how will (European) freshwater ecosystems respond to future climate change directly and indirectly, through interactions with hydromophology, eutrophication, acidification and toxic substances? • how can European freshwater systems thereby be better managed, e.g. with respect to the EU Water Framework Directive? Rationale •Climate changing rapidly beyond the range of recent (historical) natural variability •Aquatic ecosystems under stress from land use change and pollution face additional pressures from climate change •Need to understand direct effects of climate change and also indirect impacts through interaction with pollutants Objectives •to improve understanding of how global change, especially climate change in its interaction with other drivers (land-use change, nutrient loading, acid deposition, toxic pollution) has changed, is changing and will change the structure and functioning of European freshwater ecosystems (rivers/streams, lakes and marginal wetlands); •to encapsulate this understanding in the form of predictive, testable models; •to identify key taxa, structures or processes (indicators of aquatic ecosystem health) that clearly indicate impending or realised global change through their loss, occurrence or behaviour; Euro-limpacs- Work programme structure WP1. Direct Impacts of Climate Change WP2. Climatehydromorphology interactions WP3. Climatenutrient interactions WP4. Climateacidification interactions WP5. Climate-toxic substances interactions WP6. Integrated Catchment Modelling and Analysis WP7. Indicators of ecosystem health WP8. Reference conditions & restoration strategies WP10. Dissemination & Training WP9. Tools for catchment management Direct effects of climate change Hot Summer 2003 Switzerland (Schär et al., 2004) Impact on lake water column Zürichsee (CH) Strong increase in • surface water temperature • lake stability • oxygen depletion in hypolimnion Enhanced risk of deep water anoxia Number of standard deviations (Modified from Jankowski et al., 2006) Ecological thresholds in high mountain lakes Relation of organism goups and environmental factors Ice cover duration (days) Ice cover duration (days) diatoms, rotifers, planktonic crustaceans, chironomids, chydorids climate, lake size, trophic state, water chemistry 240 Duration of ice cover as ecological threshold in high mountain lakes 200 ~ 190 days 160 120 C_ D ac _A ex Q_ c b _ dH Ms pp Q_ b _ dG Pa us A Z_ _D lo n C C _a _A ha Q_ r b K dh _P so r C _ _B Cs ph Q_ E ac _P se u B Z_ _A a lp Species assemblage Median, first and third quartiles, total range of ice cover duration for species assemblages (Catalan et al., 2010) GENERALLY…. an increase in the surface water temperature of lakes and streams across Europe, especially those at high altitudes and latitudes, and strengthening and lengthening of lake stratification in summer; an increase in hypolimnetic temperature of large deep lakes, which tend to cause a reduction in oxygen concentration in bottom waters, especially in summer; a reduction in lake ice-cover, including both a later freezing date in autumn and an earlier spring thaw, that increases the length of the openwater growing season, the duration and intensity of the autumn overturn, and an increase in deep-water oxygen concentrations; melting of mountain glaciers and permafrost causing changes to discharge regimes in mountain streams and release of solutes and pollutants to surface waters; (Nickus et al., 2010) Climate – hydromorphology interactions Effects of climate change on hydraulic conditions and channel morphology at the catchment, reach & habitat scale Effects of restoration measures in European rivers Effects of climate change on lake sediment accumulation rate Currently the magnitude of the effects of climate change on hydromophology of streams and rivers is small compared with the impact of land-use changes but in future, particularly in marginal areas in southern and northern Europe and at high elevations this climatic signal will become more significant. This is likely to have major impacts on restoration efforts in future. (Verdonschot et al., 2010) Climate – hydromorphology interactions increased and more intense precipitation more spates and droughts intensification agriculture siltation, scouring deterioration • morphology • biodiversity abandoning agriculture widening buffer strips improving • morphology • biodiversity Climate – eutrophication interactions Mesocosm experiments to study the combined effects of warming and nutrient enrichment on freshwater ecosystems Relative cumulative respired C after 49 days control fertilized 100,00 90,00 Stream and wetland experiments at paired sites carbon ( mgC/ mg SOC) 80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 Warm Ambient Space for time substitution studies – can analogues provide us with an insight as to what might happen under future climate change Palaeolimnological studies - To employ sediment records to provide a temporally integrated, longer-term view of within lake changes than can be provided by monitoring data Climate – eutrophication interactions Warming will exacerbate many, though not necessarily all, symptoms of eutrophication, but there remains considerable uncertainty. 1. Responses are complex and varied depending on the specific context. As a result, specific measures to be taken in particular situations will be associated with extreme uncertainty in view of the limited scope of research that is likely to be achievable over the period in which climate change is occurring. 2. Several lines of evidence hint at biological feedback mechanisms that may result in increased respiratory production of carbon dioxide, if not of nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4). This might mean that the purely physical models that are the basis for climate change predictions made by the IPCC are severe underestimates. 3. As world population grows, pressure to grow more food, whilst simultaneously producing crops for biofuel, will probably lead to further increased nutrient inputs and an intensification of eutrophication problems in receiving freshwaters. (Jeppesen et al., 2010) Climate – acidification interactions monitoring pH Increase in storminess may depress pH during 7 extreme events and confound 6 .5 recovery from acidification 6 (Hutchins et al, unpub). 1 9 7 9 -1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 -1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 -1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 -2 0 0 1 5 .5 5 4 .5 4 0 100 0 200 0 D is c h a r g e ( l/s ) Climate warming increased NO3 CLIMEX Risdalsheia, Norway (Van Breemen et al. 1998) experiments Water ANC and catchment soil base saturation for two emission scenarios and two forest harvest (biomass energy) scenarios at the 163 study sites (Aherne et al. 2008) modelling 30 00 400 0 CLIMATE CHANGE – ACIDIFICATION INTERACTIONS Climate change is a confounding factor in that it can exacerbate or ameliorate the rate and degree of acidification and recovery, both with respect to chemical as well as biological effects. The absence of recovery following reduction in acid deposition, therefore, may simply be the result of the confounding influence of climatic variations. Wright et al., 2010 Climate – toxic substances interaction – effects of climate change on…. loading of toxic substances to headwater systems redistribution and uptake of persistent organic pollutants in aquatic food-webs mobilisation of mercury and methyl mercury in soils remobilisation of accumulated heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants from polluted soils and subsequent transportation into aquatic ecosystems CLIMATE CHANGE – TOXIC SUBSTANCE INTERACTIONS Climate changes will be particularly important for pollutants whose environmental distribution is strongly dependent on temperature, such as organohalogen compounds. Increases in temperatures will result in greater atmospheric concentrations of organohalogens by favouring their desorption from land. Changes in precipitation will modify the rates at which organohalogens are incorporated into terrestrial waters and ecosystems. At higher atmospheric concentrations, these compounds will have greater direct impact on the human population and its health. Temperature may increase mercury volatilization from land and water compartments but also oxidation of this metal in the atmosphere which may favour its deposition. Increased precipitation will likely lead to higher rates of mercury methylation in soils which will increase the toxicity and bioaccumulation capacity of this metal in terrestrial ecosystems. Higher temperature may also reinforce demethylation processes. Erosion is also a factor for mobilization of metals and POPs and may affect lakes in remote areas. Grimalt et al., 2010 MANAGEMENT RESPONSE A major challenge to incorporate climate change into existing management strategies or develop new strategies to accommodate changing climate Euro-limpacs focused on four main management areas 1. 2. 3. 4. Use of integrated catchment modelling Use of indicators Climate change impacts on restoration and the reference condition concept Management and decision support Management options Integrated Catchment Analysis and Modelling Climate change - Expression in Models… • temperature effects on processes usually included; • hydrological effects included to some extent; • plethora of ecological models, but not necessarily well-linked to relevant driving forces; • only skimmed the surface of economic change. Euro-limpacs Integrated Modelling Sites Models have been applied to a wide range of environments across Europe Can models be chained to predict the impact of climate change at the catchment scale? Integrated modelling in Norway Global change model Regional downscaling AOGCM RCM T, P HBV MAGIC Hydrologic model Q Catchment process model NO3 INCA-N HER, River basin model SMD NO3 (Kaste et al. 2006) + Wind speed FJORD Q Fjord model The Socioeconomic Interface Can we model the effects of climate and agricultural change? Effects of Climate Change on Nitrate- N (Q05) with (dotted line) and without enhanced nitrification Nitrate as Nitrogen, A2 emissions 12 11 CGCM2 CSIRO HadCM3 CGCM2S CSIROS HadCM3S mgN/l 10 9 8 7 6 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Mitigation Different methods of mitigating climate change effects on the River Kennet nitrate 10 8 m gN /l Nitrate -N 12 6 4 2 Baseline Fertiliser Meadows Combined Deposition 0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Whitehead et al., 2006 Take Home Models predict that plausible climate change over Europe will affect water quantity and quality. This will cause ecological changes. The effects differ in detail in different places. The spatial pattern on a European scale is ? – we are still working on it. We now have a modelling toolkit: Downscale, predicting water quality and quantity, evaluating uncertainty. -need to apply more widely, test, refine. 8,0 7,5 1986-data; Norway 1995-data; Norway 7,0 pH 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 -100 -50 0 50 100 ANC cb Indicators of ecosystem health What indicator and monitoring systems do we need to detect the impacts of climate change? George et al. In situ lake monitoring OBJECTIVE - derive improved indicator system for the assessment of aquatic ecosystem health in the face of climate change coloured dissolved organic matter (Round Loch of Glenhead) 0.180 fluorimeter voltage 0.175 0.170 0.165 0.160 0.155 14-Nov05 24-Nov05 04-Dec05 14-Dec05 24-Dec- 03-Jan-06 13-Jan-06 05 Euro-limpacs objectives • What chemical parameters are best suited as indicators of climate change? • Can functional indicators be identified to address climate change impacts on wetlands, rivers and lakes? • Can biological indicators of climate change be identified and can these be used to assess the response of communities to change? • Can the different indicator types be linked to provide a common framework for rivers, lakes and wetlands? • Can existing assessment and prediction methods for European freshwater systems be expanded and modified to address climate change? Indicators for what? • Climate Change impacts on lakes, rivers and wetlands, e.g. – Indicators for the impact of increasing temperature – Indicators for the impact of changes in hydromorphology – Indicators for the impact of increasing eutrophication – Indicators for the impact of increasing acidification – Indicators for changes in biodiversity Monitoring system for the Water Framework Directive Restoration Biological indicators Metric 1 Metric 2 Metric 3 Supporting physico-chemical parameters Metric 1 Metric 2 Restoration Quality class Restoration Metric 3 Restoration Supporting hydromorphological parameters Metric 1 Metric 2 Restoration Metric 3 eutrophication hydromorphology acidification other stressors Climate Change Aquatic insects and climate change “..autecological characteristics and distribution patterns of more than 12,000 European freshwater organisms…..macro-invertebrates, fish, diatoms, macrophytes” Database contains taxonomic and ecological information for these organisms (including traits). Distribution maps can be generated to inform assessment systems Aquatic insects and climate change Endemic species Trichoptera, endemics Plecoptera, endemics Ephemeroptera, endemics Fenno-Scandian FS FS Borealic Uplands BU BU Central Plains CP CP Central Highlands CH CH Italy Italy Italy Iberic-M. Region I-M I-M Carpathians C C Alps A A 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 Percentage of species 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 Aquatic insects and climate change Cold stenothermic species Trichoptera, cold stenothermic Ephemeroptera, cold stenothermic Plecoptera, cold stenothermic Fenno-Scandian FS FS Borealic Uplands BU BU Central Plains CP CP Central Highlands CH Italy Italy Italy Iberic-M. Region I-M I-M Carpathians C 56.9 C Alps A 73.0 A 0 10 20 30 40 50 62.6 0 10 20 Percentage of species 30 40 50 CH 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mean monthly temperatures Dec - Feb 1971-2000 Mean monthly temperatures Dec - Feb 2071-2100 -9.3 -2.3 -2.3 1.6 -0.2-0 3.9-4.0 6.3 9.3 Problems for cold-stenothermous species Aquatic insects and climate change • High number of species sensitive to Climate Change in the Mediterranean and high mountain areas • Low number of sensitive species in the lowlands and in Northern Europe • Relatively high number of sensitive species in Northern Europe for groups with high dispersal capacity and short life cycle Lorenz et al., 2010 Climate-and-freshwater.info Objectives • Which indicators are presently being used to assess European freshwater ecosystems? • Which indicators are best suited to assess and predict the impact of Climate Change on freshwater ecosystems? • Which key indicator species are affected by Climate Change? • Which case studies on indicators are available? Ecosystem types • Rivers, lakes, wetlands • Cold, temperate, warm ecoregions What does it mean ? • Tremendous knowledge on ecological preferences of freshwater biota and on ecosystem response to Climate Change is available from literature – but poorly accessible. • Indicators of various types are useful to detect ecosystem response to Climate Change. • Indicators enable predictions of Climate Change effects on freshwater ecosystems and biota. Hering et al., 2010 What are the gaps ? • Integration of Climate Change indicators into monitoring programmes. Implications for Water Framework Directive •Fish invertebrate and macrophyte communities will change •Metrics based on indicator groups and species will rapidly become redundant •Ecosystem structure and processbased metrics are likely to become more relevant Reference conditions & restoration strategies What are the implications of future climate change for aquatic ecosystem restoration policies (especially the Water Framework Directive)? ? The reference state will change through time, and restoration to “good ecological status” will depend on interactions between recovery processes and climate change Battarbee et al 2010 Target setting • Concepts in restoration ecology: – Restoration - returning a system to its original state (i.e. totally unimpacted) – Rehabilitation - restoring something similar to previous state - similar to restoration but less perfectionist (Good status rather than High status) – Replacement - provide something different in place of the disturbed ecosystem. • What should we restore? – ecosystem structure - communities, species, rarities – habitats – ecosystem function - biomass, nutrient level, grazing level Conclusion: compromise? • May be better to aim for healthy system functioning - not pushing for exact return of former plant species which may be impossible in agricultural, lowland regions i.e. cannot get nutrient levels low enough • Hence functional targets may be best to target shallow lake restoration -e.g. ‘clear water lake with abundant submerged Elodeid plants’ Euro-limpacs POSITION PAPER (Battarbee et al., 2009) What are the implications of climate change for policy and management of freshwater ecosystems? Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Ecosystems Martin Kernan, Richard W. Battarbee, Brian Moss • Details the impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems, past, present and future • Broad coverage: focuses on the key drivers of aquatic ecosystem change • Examines interactions between climate change and other drivers of change • Integrated full colour images throughout. • Addresses management aspects Pre-publication discount $79.79 (save $20) While stocks last! Order your copy here today or online at www.wiley.com SOME FUTURE RESEARCH PRIORITIES Effects on freshwater ecosystems of mitigation and adaptation strategies REFRESH Effects of climate change and other stressors on aquatic biodiversity – vulnerability in marginal areas - BIOFRESH Consideration of socio-economic and cultural/ demographic changes in response to climate change and how these might impact on freshwater ecosystems