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Evaluating government plans and actions to reduce GHG emissions in Canada: The state of play in 2016 Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives Bruce Campbell, CCPA & University of Ottawa 1. Context: a snapshot of GHG emissions and energy use in Canada 2. Update on federal and provincial climate policies 3. Update on GHG emission reduction targets 4. Summary GHG Emissions in Canada (total) By source (Mt CO2e, 2014) Reference: Environment Canada, National Waste & other, 54.1, 7% Agriculture, 72.9, 10% Oil and Gas, 192.2, 26% Buildings, 87.1, 12% Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) Electricity, 78.2, 11% EITEIs, 76.3, 11% Canada’s 732 Mt of GHG emissions account for 2% of the global total Transportation, 171.4, 23% GHG Emissions in Canada (total) By jurisdiction and source (Mt CO2e, 2014) Reference: Environment Canada, National Oil and Gas Electricity Transportation Buildings Agriculture Waste & other EITEIs Territories British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) Manitoba Ontario GHG emissions are concentrated in specific sectors in specific regions (the five largest blocks account for 41% of total emissions) Quebec Atlantic Provinces 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 GHG Emissions in Canada (per capita) Oil and Gas Electricity Transportation Buildings Agriculture Waste & other EITEIs Territories British Columbia Alberta By jurisdiction and source (tonnes CO2e per person, 2014) Saskatchewan Reference: Environment Canada, National Manitoba Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) and Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 051- 0001 Provincial GHG emissions differences are not primarily determined by population size Ontario Quebec Atlantic Provinces Canada 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 GHG Emissions Intensity in Canada By jurisdiction (Mt CO2e per $1 billion GDP, 2014) Territories British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Reference: Environment Canada, National Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) and Ontario Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 384- 0038 Provincial GHG emissions differences are not primarily determined by overall economic activity Québec Atlantic Provinces Canada 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Energy Use in Canada (total) By jurisdiction and source (petajoules, Coal Refined petroleum products Natural gas Liquid natural gas Primary electricity, hydro, nuclear Suppressed data & other sources Territories British Columbia Alberta 2014) Reference: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 128-0016 & author’s estimates Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Overall consumption of fossil fuels is significantly correlated with total GHG emissions in any given province Quebec Atlantic Provinces 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Energy Use in Canada (per capita) By jurisdiction and source (megajoules per person, 2014) Reference: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 128-0016 (and author’s estimates) and CANSIM Table 051-0001 Coal Refined petroleum products Natural gas Liquid natural gas Primary electricity, hydro, nuclear Suppressed data & other sources Territories British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec Average “individual” fossil fuel consumption reflects the energy/economic system, not necessarily household decisions Atlantic Provinces Canada 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 GHG emissions in Canada are closely tied to fossil fuel consumption (and, indirectly, to fossil fuel production) Differences between provinces cannot be explained away by population size or economy activity Update on Federal Climate Policies • Vancouver Declaration (March) – Commitment to complete pan-Canadian framework by December 2016 and implement in early 2017 • Federal Budget (March) – More than $10 billion in green infrastructure and climaterelated spending over five years • “Mid Century Long-Term Low-GHG Development Strategy” (November) – New GHG target of 80% below 2005 levels by 2050 • New policies on the horizon? – National carbon price (announced in September) – Accelerated coal phase-out (announced in November) Update on Provincial Climate Policies • Manitoba Climate Change Plan (December 2015) – New GHG emission reduction targets (using 2005 as baseline) of 33% by 2030, 50% by 2050 and 100% by 2080 – Commitment to adopt cap-and-trade system (now at risk) • Alberta Climate Leadership Plan (April) – New carbon tax of $20/tonne in 2017 ($30/tonne in 2018) – Coal phase-out by 2030 – Oil sands emissions cap of 100 Mt – New methane target (45% reduction by 2025) but no economywide carbon emission reduction targets • Ontario Climate Change Plan (June) – Commitment to implement WCI cap-and-trade system (2017) – New electric vehicle infrastructure and consumer incentives – Additional $3 billion to improve energy efficiency in buildings – “Net zero” standard for new buildings by 2030 Update on Provincial Climate Policies • British Columbia Climate Leadership Plan (August) – “Targeted, sector-specific actions” rather than major crosscutting policies – Most reductions come from improved forest sequestration – Ignored principal recommendation of Climate Leadership Team to increase carbon tax • Saskatchewan White Paper (October) – Rejects Canadian climate change mitigation efforts (especially carbon pricing) for failing to significantly reduce global emissions – Promotes "innovation and technological development” as economically productive alternative 2020 Targets vs. Forecasts Target GHG emissions compared to projected GHG emissions (Mt CO2e) *Adjusted to account for plans announced since September 2015 **Not adjusted for new plan ***Never formally adopted Reference: Environment Canada, Canada’s Second Biennial Report on Climate Change (2016) Target Forecast Difference Newfoundland & Labrador 8.6 9 0.4 Prince Edward Island 1.8 2 0.2 Nova Scotia 18.0 15 3.0 New Brunswick 14.8 17 2.2 Quebec 71.3 85 13.7 Ontario 154.5 161.2* 6.7 Manitoba Saskatchewan 22** 56*** Alberta 75 19.0 280.3* British Columbia 43.1 68.4* 25.3 Canada 620 738.0* 118.0 2030 Targets vs. Forecasts Target GHG emissions compared to projected GHG emissions (Mt CO2e) *Adjusted to account for plans announced since September 2015 **Not adjusted for new plan Reference: Environment Canada, Canada’s Second Biennial Report on Climate Change (2016) Target Forecast Difference Newfoundland & Labrador 5.3 8 2.7 Prince Edward Island 1.1 2 0.9 Nova Scotia 13.0 14 1.0 New Brunswick 10.7 16 5.3 Quebec 55.7 90 34.3 Ontario 114.5 171.2* 56.7 Manitoba 13.8 24** 10.2 Saskatchewan 73 Alberta 270* British Columbia 72.3* Canada 522.9 754.3* 231.4 GHG Emissions Forecasts vs. National Targets Historical emissions Projected emissions (2015) Updated projections (2016) National emissions targets 800 700 600 Historical and projected GHG emissions compared to emissions targets (Mt CO2e) 500 Reference: Environment Canada, National 400 Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) and 100 2050 2047 2044 2041 2038 2035 2032 2029 2026 2023 2020 2017 2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 0 1996 with author’s adjustments 200 1993 Biennial Report on Climate Change (2016) 300 1990 Environment Canada, Canada’s Second Summary • Total GHG emissions are principally tied to fossil fuel consumption, not population or economic growth • Important climate policies were announced in 2016 – Pro: new policies target the greatest individual sources of emissions (e.g. Alberta oil and gas, Ontario transportation) – Con: new policies lack the ambition and coordination to drive deep emissions reductions • Total emissions are projected to exceed almost every single federal and provincial/territorial target between now and 2050 • New pan-Canadian climate framework will clearly establish the level of ambition for future federal and provincial policy… for better or for worse