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Evaluating government
plans and actions to
reduce GHG emissions in
Canada: The state of play
in 2016
Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
Bruce Campbell, CCPA & University of Ottawa
1. Context: a snapshot of GHG
emissions and energy use
in Canada
2. Update on federal and
provincial climate policies
3. Update on GHG emission
reduction targets
4. Summary
GHG Emissions
in Canada
(total)
By source (Mt CO2e, 2014)
Reference: Environment Canada, National
Waste & other,
54.1, 7%
Agriculture,
72.9, 10%
Oil and Gas,
192.2, 26%
Buildings, 87.1,
12%
Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016)
Electricity,
78.2, 11%
EITEIs, 76.3,
11%
Canada’s 732 Mt of GHG emissions
account for 2% of the global total
Transportation,
171.4, 23%
GHG Emissions
in Canada
(total)
By jurisdiction and source (Mt CO2e, 2014)
Reference: Environment Canada, National
Oil and Gas
Electricity
Transportation
Buildings
Agriculture
Waste & other
EITEIs
Territories
British Columbia
Alberta
Saskatchewan
Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016)
Manitoba
Ontario
GHG emissions are concentrated in
specific sectors in specific regions
(the five largest blocks account for
41% of total emissions)
Quebec
Atlantic Provinces
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
GHG Emissions
in Canada
(per capita)
Oil and Gas
Electricity
Transportation
Buildings
Agriculture
Waste & other
EITEIs
Territories
British Columbia
Alberta
By jurisdiction and source (tonnes CO2e
per person, 2014)
Saskatchewan
Reference: Environment Canada, National
Manitoba
Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) and
Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 051-
0001
Provincial GHG emissions differences
are not primarily determined by
population size
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic Provinces
Canada
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GHG Emissions
Intensity in
Canada
By jurisdiction (Mt CO2e per $1 billion
GDP, 2014)
Territories
British Columbia
Alberta
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Reference: Environment Canada, National
Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) and
Ontario
Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 384-
0038
Provincial GHG emissions differences
are not primarily determined by
overall economic activity
Québec
Atlantic Provinces
Canada
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Energy Use in
Canada
(total)
By jurisdiction and source (petajoules,
Coal
Refined petroleum products
Natural gas
Liquid natural gas
Primary electricity, hydro, nuclear
Suppressed data & other sources
Territories
British Columbia
Alberta
2014)
Reference: Statistics Canada, CANSIM
Table 128-0016 & author’s estimates
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Ontario
Overall consumption of fossil fuels is
significantly correlated with total GHG
emissions in any given province
Quebec
Atlantic Provinces
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Energy Use in
Canada
(per capita)
By jurisdiction and source (megajoules per
person, 2014)
Reference: Statistics Canada, CANSIM
Table 128-0016 (and author’s estimates)
and CANSIM Table 051-0001
Coal
Refined petroleum products
Natural gas
Liquid natural gas
Primary electricity, hydro, nuclear
Suppressed data & other sources
Territories
British Columbia
Alberta
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Ontario
Quebec
Average “individual” fossil fuel
consumption reflects the
energy/economic system, not
necessarily household decisions
Atlantic Provinces
Canada
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
GHG emissions in Canada are
closely tied to fossil fuel
consumption (and, indirectly, to
fossil fuel production)
Differences between provinces
cannot be explained away by
population size or economy activity
Update on
Federal
Climate
Policies
• Vancouver Declaration (March)
– Commitment to complete pan-Canadian framework by
December 2016 and implement in early 2017
• Federal Budget (March)
– More than $10 billion in green infrastructure and climaterelated spending over five years
• “Mid Century Long-Term Low-GHG Development
Strategy” (November)
– New GHG target of 80% below 2005 levels by 2050
• New policies on the horizon?
– National carbon price (announced in September)
– Accelerated coal phase-out (announced in November)
Update on
Provincial
Climate
Policies
• Manitoba Climate Change Plan (December 2015)
– New GHG emission reduction targets (using 2005 as baseline)
of 33% by 2030, 50% by 2050 and 100% by 2080
– Commitment to adopt cap-and-trade system (now at risk)
• Alberta Climate Leadership Plan (April)
– New carbon tax of $20/tonne in 2017 ($30/tonne in 2018)
– Coal phase-out by 2030
– Oil sands emissions cap of 100 Mt
– New methane target (45% reduction by 2025) but no economywide carbon emission reduction targets
• Ontario Climate Change Plan (June)
– Commitment to implement WCI cap-and-trade system (2017)
– New electric vehicle infrastructure and consumer incentives
– Additional $3 billion to improve energy efficiency in buildings
– “Net zero” standard for new buildings by 2030
Update on
Provincial
Climate
Policies
• British Columbia Climate Leadership Plan (August)
– “Targeted, sector-specific actions” rather than major crosscutting policies
– Most reductions come from improved forest sequestration
– Ignored principal recommendation of Climate Leadership
Team to increase carbon tax
• Saskatchewan White Paper (October)
– Rejects Canadian climate change mitigation efforts
(especially carbon pricing) for failing to significantly reduce
global emissions
– Promotes "innovation and technological development” as
economically productive alternative
2020 Targets
vs. Forecasts
Target GHG emissions compared to
projected GHG emissions (Mt CO2e)
*Adjusted to account for plans announced
since September 2015
**Not adjusted for new plan
***Never formally adopted
Reference: Environment Canada,
Canada’s Second Biennial Report on
Climate Change (2016)
Target
Forecast
Difference
Newfoundland & Labrador
8.6
9
0.4
Prince Edward Island
1.8
2
0.2
Nova Scotia
18.0
15
3.0
New Brunswick
14.8
17
2.2
Quebec
71.3
85
13.7
Ontario
154.5
161.2*
6.7
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
22**
56***
Alberta
75
19.0
280.3*
British Columbia
43.1
68.4*
25.3
Canada
620
738.0*
118.0
2030 Targets
vs. Forecasts
Target GHG emissions compared to
projected GHG emissions (Mt CO2e)
*Adjusted to account for plans announced
since September 2015
**Not adjusted for new plan
Reference: Environment Canada,
Canada’s Second Biennial Report on
Climate Change (2016)
Target
Forecast
Difference
Newfoundland & Labrador
5.3
8
2.7
Prince Edward Island
1.1
2
0.9
Nova Scotia
13.0
14
1.0
New Brunswick
10.7
16
5.3
Quebec
55.7
90
34.3
Ontario
114.5
171.2*
56.7
Manitoba
13.8
24**
10.2
Saskatchewan
73
Alberta
270*
British Columbia
72.3*
Canada
522.9
754.3*
231.4
GHG Emissions
Forecasts vs.
National Targets
Historical emissions
Projected emissions (2015)
Updated projections (2016)
National emissions targets
800
700
600
Historical and projected GHG emissions
compared to emissions targets (Mt CO2e)
500
Reference: Environment Canada, National
400
Inventory Report 1990-2014 (2016) and
100
2050
2047
2044
2041
2038
2035
2032
2029
2026
2023
2020
2017
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
0
1996
with author’s adjustments
200
1993
Biennial Report on Climate Change (2016)
300
1990
Environment Canada, Canada’s Second
Summary
• Total GHG emissions are principally tied to fossil fuel
consumption, not population or economic growth
• Important climate policies were announced in 2016
– Pro: new policies target the greatest individual sources of
emissions (e.g. Alberta oil and gas, Ontario transportation)
– Con: new policies lack the ambition and coordination to
drive deep emissions reductions
• Total emissions are projected to exceed almost every
single federal and provincial/territorial target between
now and 2050
• New pan-Canadian climate framework will clearly
establish the level of ambition for future federal and
provincial policy… for better or for worse