Download Canada Climate Actions

NOVEMBER 2016
IB: 16-10-A
ISSUE BRIEF
THE ROAD FROM PARIS:
CANADA’S PROGRESS TOWARD ITS CLIMATE PLEDGE
New federal leadership under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made climate change a bigger
political priority. In practice, more policies that address climate change are needed—especially
improving energy efficiency and stopping the expansion of the tar sands industry, which
represents Canada’s largest source of emissions growth.1 Canada’s climate pledge proposes
to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30 percent from 2005 levels by 2030; this is
considered an unambitious goal. Even so, Canada is not on track to reach it. To ensure Canada
does its fair share to mitigate the threat of climate change, the government should set a more
ambitious emissions target and implement domestic policies to that end.
OVERVIEW OF NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES
Canada accounts for 2 percent of global GHG emissions,
with most stemming from its transportation and energy
sectors, including the tar sands industry.2 Per capita,
Canada has the second-highest emissions intensity among
the G7 countries.3 Canada is a major global producer and net
exporter of energy and extracted fossil fuel resources.
Throughout the conservative administration of Stephen
Harper from 2006 to 2015, Canada lagged behind on climate
policy. During that time, Canada saw a massive increase in
carbon pollution from the tar sands industry. The Harper
administration also actively fought international efforts
CANADA HAS
PROPOSED TO CUT
ITS EMISSIONS BY
For more information, please contact:
Han Chen
[email protected]
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/han-chen
to advance stronger climate and clean energy policies,
especially those that might have lessened demand for highcarbon fuel stocks like tar sands. The government is still
giving significant subsidies to the oil and gas sector.4
NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION (NDC)
Canada has submitted its nationally determined
contribution (NDC), formally proposing an economy-wide
reduction of GHG emissions by 30 percent below 2005
levels by 2030, possibly using carbon credits from the
international market. This commitment was submitted
by the previous administration, and it remains unclear
whether Trudeau will strengthen it.
30%
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OF 2005
LEVELS
BY 2030.
THE PARIS AGREEMENT
In late 2015, the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) was held in Paris. The 196 nations that are part of the UNFCCC approved the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global temperature
rise to 2 degrees Celsius, and to make best efforts to keep it to 1.5 degrees. To that end, countries submitted intended nationally determined
contributions (INDCs) detailing the level to which they planned to cut emissions and their plans to reach that goal. The Paris Agreement
entered into force on November 4, 2016—and the INDCs are now formally enshrined as part of the Agreement—and hereafter referred to as
nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
In 2009, in an effort to keep global warming below 2 degrees
Celsius, Canada and other G8 countries pledged to cut their
GHG emissions by 80 percent or more of 1990 levels (or
more recent years) by 2050.5 To meet that target, Canada
would need to cut its emissions by 38 percent of 2005 levels
by 2030, as opposed to the 30 percent pledged in the NDC.6
$36 billion liquefied natural gas export terminal and signals
that it intends to approve Kinder Morgan’s $5 billion Trans
Mountain pipeline expansion, may be locking in carbon
emissions for decades to come.8,9 This would make it nearly
impossible for Canada to meet its climate target.
In the past, Canada opted to sync its climate pollution
reductions with those of the United States. However, the
United States pledged to reduce emissions by 26 to 28
percent of 2005 levels by 2025; according to Canada’s
current target, it could reach only a 23.5 percent reduction
from 2005 levels in the same period. In addition, Canada
may purchase carbon emissions reduction credits from
other countries to meet its 2030 commitment, allowing it
to continue high rates of domestic climate pollution while
paying for cuts made by other countries.
CLIMATE MITIGATION POLICY
Canada’s chances of satisfying its NDC are slim. At the
2009 conference in Copenhagen, Canada committed to
reducing its emissions 17 percent below 2005 levels by
2020, but recent projections show that it will get only
about halfway there. Even worse, Canada is on a path to
actually increasing emissions by 2030, largely through the
expansion of its tar sands industry.7 In fact, recent decisions
by the Trudeau administration, including the approval of a
With the election of the Liberal government in 2015, many
in the environmental community are encouraged that the
federal government is no longer actively fighting climate
policy and science. However, major questions remain about
the new government’s future engagement on climate.
In the summer, Canada hosted the North American Leaders
Summit, which included U.S. President Barack Obama,
Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, and Canadian
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This meeting produced the
North American Climate, Clean Energy, and Environmental
Partnership Action Plan, by which North America aims
to generate 50 percent of its electricity from clean energy
by 2025.10 This would be an increase from the current
37 percent.11 To reach this goal, the nations will invest in
and deploy a variety of clean energy technologies, advance
collaborative research, and align environmental standards
and regulations across a variety of sectors.12
Canada GHG Emissions
CANADA GHG EMISSIONS
1,200
Reference case
1,000
Government Emissions
Projections
MMTCO2e
800
Copenhagen Target:
17% below 2005 levels
by 2020
600
Canada NDC:
30% below 2005
level by 2030
400
200
80% reduction from
1990 level by 2050
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Natural Resources Defense Council, based on Envrionment Canada’s report “Canada’s Emission Trends 2014”, Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Canada’s INDC submission to the UNFCCC.
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Based in Alberta, the tar sands industry extracts tarlike bitumen
from strip mines that are destroying the boreal forest and from
wells where the thick, toxic substance is steamed and pumped
from the ground in a process closely related to fracking. Both
the mines and wells require extraordinary amounts of energy and
water and are decimating landscapes, rivers, lakes, and wildlife
throughout northern Alberta. Prime Minister Trudeau now has the
opportunity to develop new policies that will help Canada become
a global leader on climate action by shifting away from fossil fuels,
especially tar sands.
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR
The federal government has established progressively
stronger GHG emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles
(model years 2014 to 2018) and for passenger automobiles
and light trucks (2011 to 2025). The government is currently
developing additional regulatory measures for post-2018
heavy-duty vehicles that will align with the new U.S. heavyduty vehicle standards. These measures will be released
in 2016.13
ENERGY SECTOR
Canada’s coal-fired electricity standards ban the
construction of traditional coal-fired electricity generation
units and accelerate the retirement of existing coal-fired
power plants. Some provinces have taken the lead, with
Ontario phasing out coal in 2014 and Alberta planning
to phase it out by 2030.14 Also, Canada’s renewable fuel
regulations require that gasoline contain an average of 5
percent renewable fuel content and that most diesel fuel
contain an average of 2 percent. The Canadian government
intends to develop regulations to address methane
emissions from the oil and gas sector, as well as GHG
emissions from natural gas–fired electricity, chemicals,
and nitrogen fertilizers.
TAR SANDS
Canada needs federal leadership to signal that tar sands
emissions must be addressed. Alberta has indicated
willingness to begin tackling tar sands emissions, but its
“Climate Leadership Plan” is not an emissions reduction
policy; rather, it seeks to cap emissions at a level that is
nearly 45 percent higher than current production emissions
(allowing growth from 70 megatonnes to 100 MT).15
In November 2015, President Obama rejected the
controversial Keystone XL pipeline. However, the company
behind it, TransCanada, is now proposing the Energy East
pipeline, which is 35 percent larger than Keystone.16 Energy
East would take tar sands oil from northern Alberta to
refineries in Quebec and a seaport in New Brunswick. From
there, almost 300 oil supertankers would travel annually
along the Atlantic and Gulf Costs to refineries in the
southern United States.17 This proposal calls into question
Canada’s commitment to climate action as it would mean a
significant expansion of tar sands production. The Trudeau
administration cannot approve this proposal without taking
Canada far off track from its emissions targets.
CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE PROJECTS
In 2008, the Canadian government announced that any
tar sands expansion project built after 2012 would require
carbon capture and storage, which could meaningfully
reduce emissions if implemented. To date, there is only one
operating carbon capture and storage project, which was
expected to offset less than 2 percent of tar sands emissions
growth between 2005 and 2020.18 Worse, it has missed its
targets, faced technological problems, and seen costs soar.19
PROVINCIAL CLIMATE POLICY
In the absence of federal climate leadership, many Canadian
provinces are working to advance climate policies. For
instance, there is the Western Climate Initiative—which
includes British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec.
For their part, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward
Island, Newfoundland, and Labrador have signed on to
the New England Governors/Eastern Canadian Premiers
Climate Change Action Plan. This plan aims to reduce
emissions by 10 percent of 1990 levels by 2020, and then to
reach reductions of 75 to 85 percent below 2001 levels by
2050.20 Individual provinces have adopted several measures
to meet these targets, including the following:
Quebec has implemented a carbon levy, a cap-and-trade
system, and a climate action plan to reduce its emissions
by 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.21
n Ontario retired all coal-fired generation units at the end
of 2014.22 The province is also set to launch a cap-andtrade system.23
n n
Nova Scotia has instituted a cap on emissions and
a renewable portfolio standard requiring renewable
resources to make up 40 percent of electricity sales by
2020.24
British Columbia implemented a carbon tax on nearly
all fossil fuels in 2008.25 (Unfortunately, though, the
province’s new climate plan from 2016 includes subsidies
for natural gas.26)
n Regrettably, the absence of a defined federal plan has
translated to a lack of provincial commitment to these
reductions. Though emissions reduction goals have been
announced by all Canadian provinces and territories, save
the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, only 5 of 13 have
actually reduced emissions below the set baselines. This
suggests that Canada’s continued reliance on a patchwork
of provincial targets has deprived it of a coherent national
policy and a national carbon market that would help drive
deeper, faster emission reductions.
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THE ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s new Liberal government has a strong opportunity
to help the nation regain its credibility and leadership
position on climate. This will, however, require the Trudeau
administration to continue establishing clear targets and
plans to achieve them. The Canadian government must take
immediate, concrete actions toward its Copenhagen target,
while also setting more ambitious future targets that will
put Canada on track to fulfill its G8 commitment to reduce
emissions by 80 percent of 2005 levels by 2050. To this end,
the Canadian government should:
1.Design and implement a federal climate policy that
provides a strong floor for all provinces to systematically
price carbon, encouraging emitters to seek greater
efficiency.
2.Scale back and end oil and gas subsidies, particularly
for the tar sands sector.
3.Revive policies to support clean energy, including:
a.Working with subnational governments to support
renewable energy development, energy efficiency,
energy storage, and low- or zero-emitting vehicles.
b.Identifying opportunities to strengthen the U.S–
Canada Clean Energy Dialogue, which requires
political attention from both nations and a broader
agenda.
The Trudeau administration certainly has its work cut
out for it after nine years under Stephen Harper. Many of
the earliest tests will relate to the environment, with the
nation’s carbon-intensive tar sands industry emerging as
a critical pressure point. International pressure is already
mounting for Canada to set truly ambitious emissions
reduction targets and policies to accomplish them. In doing
so, there is huge potential for Canada to embrace a 21stcentury, low-carbon economy, moving away from the tar
sands industry and the accompanying pernicious boom-andbust economic cycles that that come with a dependence on
the oil and gas industry.
ENDNOTES
1 Austin, I., and C. Davenport, “Climate Change High on Agenda as Obama and Trudeau Meet for Summit,” New York Times, June 27, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/
world/americas/canada-climate-justin-trudeau-obama.html. Muru, T., “Canada’s ‘Dirty Oil’ Climate Change Dilemma,” BBC News, August 22, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-uscanada-37094763.
2 European Commission Joint Research Centre, “GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases) Emission Time Series 1990–2012 per Region/Country,” Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research,
accessed October 18, 2015, http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v=GHGts1990-2012.
3 European Commission Joint Research Centre, “GHG Time Series 1990–2012 per Capita Emissions for World Countries,” Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, accessed
October 28, 2015, http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v=GHGts_pc1990-2012.
4 Linnitt, C., “Canada Subsidizes the Fossil Fuel Industry by $2.7 Billion Every Year. Where Does that Money Go?” DeSmog Canada, November 12, 2015, http://www.desmog.ca/2015/11/12/
canada-subsidizes-fossil-fuel-industry-2-7-billion-every-year-where-does-money-go.
5 Chipman, K., “G-8 Agrees to 80% Cut in Carbon Emissions by 2050,” Bloomberg, July 8, 2009, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag3sLJ76dHdA.
6 Droitsch, D., “Canada Announces Weak Climate Target,” NRDC Switchboard, May 15, 2015, http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/ddroitsch/canada_announces_weak_climate_.html.
7 Schmidt, J., D. Droitsch, and A. Swift, “Canada’s Climate Action Plan: Setting Higher Ambitions for COP 21,” NRDC Switchboard, June 2015, http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/ddroitsch/
Canada%20memo%206-2-2015%20NRDC%20FINAL.pdf.
8 Wilt, J., “Trudeau Just Approved a Giant Carbon Bomb in B.C.,” DeSmog Canada, September 27, 2016, http://www.desmog.ca/2016/09/27/trudeau-just-approved-giant-carbon-bomb-b-c.
9 Wingrove, J. “Trudeau Said to Plan Pipeline Approval, Favor Kinder Morgan,” Bloomberg, September 13, 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-13/trudeau-said-to-planpipeline-approval-favoring-kinder-morgan.
10 Dentons, “Top Takeaways from North American Leaders’ Summit and Canada–Mexico State Visit,” July 1, 2016, http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=d6ef8617-64fe-4f7d-b5209d99f89982e0.
11 “U.S., Canada and Mexico Pledge 50% of Power from Clean Energy by 2025,” The Guardian, June 27, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/28/us-canada-and-mexicopledge-50-of-power-from-clean-energy-by-2025.
12 Ibid.
13 CNW, “Statement—Canada Congratulates the United States on Stricter Greenhouse Gas Regulations for Heavy-Duty Vehicles,” August 16, 2016, http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/
statement---canada-congratulates-the-united-states-on-stricter-greenhouse-gas-regulations-for-heavy-duty-vehicles-590324521.html.
14 Quigley, J., “Coal in Canada: A By-the-Numbers Look at the Industry,” CBC News, February 4, 2016, http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-coal-by-the-numbers-1.3408568.
15 Alberta Government, “Capping Oil Sands Emissions,” http://www.alberta.ca/climate-oilsands-emissions.aspx.
16 Axelrod, J., “Tar Sands in the Atlantic: Company Behind Keystone XL Is Back,” Natural Resources Defense Council, July 26, 2016, https://www.nrdc.org/experts/josh-axelrod/tar-sandsatlantic-company-behind-keystone-xl-back.
17 Ibid.
18 Kreugel, L., “Shell’s Embrace of Carbon Capture Reflects Need to Remain Competitive,” CityNews, November 9, 2015, http://www.citynews.ca/2015/11/09/shells-embrace-of-carbon-capturereflects-need-to-remaincompetitive-ceo/.
19 Austin, I., Technology to Make Clean Energy from Coal Is Stumbling in Practice,” New York Times, March 29, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/30/business/energy-environment/
technology-to-make-clean-energy-from-coal-is-stumbling-in-practice.html?_r=0.
20 Government of Canada, Canada’s Sixth National Report on Climate Change: 2014, 2014, http://www.ec.gc.ca/cc/0BA54AAB-6E8E-4D48-B42C-DCBB09B27D10/6458_EC_ID1180MainBook_high_min%20FINAL-s.pdf.
21 Government of Quebec, 2013–2020 Climate Change Action Plan, 2012, http://www.mddelcc.gouv.qc.ca/changements/plan_action/pacc2020-en.pdf.
22 Environmental Defence and Natural Resources Defense Council, “A Tale of Two Countries: Comparing the United States’ and Canada’s Clean Energy Spending and Progress on International
Climate Commitments,” NRDC Switchboard, 2015, http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/aswift/Backgrounder_US%20vs%20Canada%20Clean%20Energy%20Spending%20%26%20Climate%20
Action%20Sept%2018_0.pdf. Leahy, D., “Ontario’s Electricity Is Officially Coal Free,” DeSmog Canada, April 19, 2014, http://www.desmog.ca/2014/04/17/ontario-s-electricity-officially-coal-free.
23 Jones, A., “Minister Tries to Ease Cap-and-Trade Fears,” St. Thomas/Elgin Weekly News, August 25, 2016, http://www.theweeklynews.ca/news-story/6825384-minister-tries-to-ease-capand-trade-fears/.
24 Environmental Defence and Natural Resources Defense Council, “A Tale of Two Countries.”
25 Government of Canada, Canada’s Sixth National Report on Climate Change.
26 Wilt. J., “B.C. Climate Plan Subsidizes Fossil Fuels (Yes, You Read That Correctly),” DeSmog Canada, August 30, 2016, http://www.desmog.ca/2016/08/30/b-c-climate-plan-subsidizesfossil-fuels-yes-you-read-correctly.
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