Download Chap.10 Biological impacts of climate change

Biological impacts of climate
change
鄭先祐(Ayo)
國立台南大學 環境與生態學院 教授
[email protected]
Contents
The nature of climate change
Current and future climate change
Predicted biological impacts
Observed biological impacts of
climate change
 Conservation implications of climate
change
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
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Supplements
 Case Study 10.1 Challenges to predicting
indirect effects of climate change
 Case study 10.2 Climate change extinction,
and the uncertain future of a neotropical
cloud forest community
 Case 10.3 Adapting coastal lowlands to
rising seas
 Case 10.4 Climate change and coastal
migrant birds
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Introduction
 Global climate is swiftly changing, with poorly
known consequences for biodiversity and
human well being.
 In the last 90 years Earth’s mean temperature
rose 0.6℃, a rate of increase that has not been
seen in 10,000 years.
 To facilitate reaching a global scientific
consensus, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) was formed, whose
third Assessment Report (IPCC 2001a)
proposed the global rises in mean yearly
temperature of the past 50 years were
primarily due to global rises in
anthropogenically produced greenhouse gases.4
The nature of climate change
Fig. 10.1 The
greenhouse effect.
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The nature of climate change
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Fig. 10.3 The
relationship between
temperature
(normalized to today’s
average global ℃), and
carbon dioxide (ppm)
over the past 160,000
years.
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Fig. 10.4 Relationship between twentieth century levels of
atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature.
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Fig. 10.5 Estimates of strengths of radiative
forces on global energy budget.
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Current and future climate change
Fig. 10.6
Temperature
trends in the
lower United
States from 1901
to 1998.
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Fig. 10.7
Precipitation
trends from
1901 to 1998.
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荷蘭
法國
波蘭
Fig. 10.8 Sea level rise over the past 300 years
in three European cities.
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Fig.10.9 Worldwide, glaciers are retreating.
(Alaska)
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Predicted biological impacts
 Predictions of how ecological systems and
species may “behave” in response to
climate change come from snapshot
analyses of current relationships between
climate contours and species’ distribution
(their “climate envelop”), from
manipulative laboratory studies on plant
and animal physiologies with respect to
temperature and precipitation tolerances,
and from analyses of the fossil record.
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Observed biological impacts of
climate change
 Detection and attribution (歸因) are
prime issues for scientific assessment
teams such as the IPCC.
 The following is a selection of such
studies that exemplify the links
between biotic changes and climate
change since the mid-1800s.
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Observed biological impacts of
climate change
1. Evolutionary and morphological changes
2. Phenological shifts
3. Abundance changes and community
reassembly
4. Range shifts
5. Sea level rise (Case study 10.3)
6. Direct effects of CO2
7. Ecosystem process changes
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The global picture: a synthesis of
biological impacts
 Twentieth century climate change has
already affected Earth’s biota.
 However, 或許是positive publishing bias, 傾
向於報導有影響。
 A meta-study by Parmesan and Yohe (2003)
sought to address this problem. Combined
data from more than 1700 species across
the globe.
 Interestingly, about half of the species in this
study were stable, showing no response.
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 On the other hand, the changes were not
random, but were systematically in the
direction expected from regional changes in
climate.
 Over the past 20-140years, an alarming
50% of all species studies exhibited
significant responses to regional warming
trends by showing earlier phenology
(timing of breeding or emerging events), a
shift in their distributions toward the poles
and higher elevations, or both.
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Conservation implications of
climate change
 Extinctions
 To date, there have been only two
extinctions directly attributable to climate
change, the golden toad and harlequin frog
in Costa Rica (Case study 10.2).
 The abundance of zooplankton (microscopic
animals and immature stages of many
species) has declined by 80% off the
California coast.
 This decline has been related to the gradual
warming of sea surface temperature.
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Responses to climate change by
resource managers
 Climate shifts present a new
challenge for resource managers
because most population models have
assumed climate to be an ecosystem
constant.
 Resource managers clearly need
accurate predictions of local climate
impacts.
 Climate-aware adaptive approaches
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Climate-aware adaptive approaches
 The reassessment of species and habitats in regard to
their relative vulnerabilities to climate change.
 The design of new reserves to allow for shifts in the
distributions of target species within reserves.
(horizontal or vertical)
 The promotion of native habitat corridors between
reserves.
 The creation of dynamic rather than static habitat
conservation plans.
 The alleviation of the effects of nonclimate stressors.
 The generalization of regional or global climate impact
predictions to a particular system.
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Climate change and conservation
policy
 Climate change policy differs a great
deal from other environmental issues
because of its global scale and
because of its implications for widereaching economic adjustments.
 The Montreal protocol sought to limit
the production of industrial chemicals
that destroy stratospheric ozone.
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Major themes in climate change
negotiations
 Policy debate about climate change
made a dramatic shift during the
1990s.(Table 10.2)
 In the late 1980s, the scientific basis
for ascribing warming trends to
human activities still was being
formed.
 The Kyoto Protocol (1997)
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A chronology of major climate
change policy events
 1896 First attribution of the connection
between atmospheric carbon and climate
(Svante Arrhenius)
 1979 First World Climate conference
 1980 Montreal protocol
 1988 Formation of IPCC (Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change), 由UNEP (United
Nations Environment Program)和the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO)建立的。
 1990 First IPCC report.
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 1992 Rio Convention
 1995 Second IPCC report
 1995 COP1: the Berlin Mandate, Council of the Parties
(COPs) meeting
 1997 COP3: The Kyoto Protocol, about 160 nations sign
the accord.



Global emission levels should be 5% less than 1990
levels by 2012.
US agrees to a 7% reduction and Canada to 6%, the
European Union level is an 8% reduction. Germany
promises to reduce emissions by 25% and the United
Kingdom by 15%.
The treaty does not become activated until the 1990
emissions levels of ratifying countries totals at least
55% of 1990 level.
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 2000 COP6: The Hague, Netherlands
 The US under Bush (elected in 2000) and Canada
under Chretien want larger amounts of carbonsink
credit for forest growth (thereby allowing for higher
net carbon emissions) than other sigatories will allow.
 The kyoto protocol is widely pronounced to be dead
 2001 COP7: Bonn, Germany
 Some 180 countries constituting all of the Kyoto
protocol signatories except the US and Australia (now
including Canada) approve the mechanism
framework for implementing the accord.
 2001 Third IPCC report
 Globally averaged mean surface temperature is
projected to increase by 1.4o to 5.8oC over the period
1990 to 2100.
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 2002 Rio +10 Johanesburg, South Africa
 The UN world summit on sustainable
development follows up on issues raised by the
Rio de Janiero summit in 1992, with special
attention to finding means to create climetefriendly development.
 2004 Moscow, Russia’s president Vladimir
Putin ratifies the Kyoto Protocol, which
immediately activates provisions of the
treaty.
 2007 Fourth IPCC report, work has begun
already to prepare the next scheduled IPCC
report, due in 2007.
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Supplements
 Case Study 10.1 Challenges to predicting
indirect effects of climate change
 Case study 10.2 Climate change extinction,
and the uncertain future of a neo-tropical
cloud forest community
 Case 10.3 Adapting coastal lowlands to
rising seas
 Case 10.4 Climate change and coastal
migrant birds
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問題與討論
http://mail.nutn.edu.tw/~hycheng/
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