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World Climate Research Programme Joint Scientific Committee – 31 Antalya, Turkey World Climate Research Programme Moving towards Future Horizons WCRP Developments/Response Post Review Antonio J. Busalacchi Chairman, Joint Scientific Committee Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme supports climaterelated decision making and planning adaptation to climate change by developing science required to improve (1) climate predictions and (2) our understanding of human influence on climate “for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015). WCRP Implementation Plan 2010-2015 • The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science – – – – • Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate Cryosphere and Climate Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Water, Energy and Climate Meeting the Information Needs of Society Activities in Support of Key Deliverables – – – – – – – Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction Sea-Level Variability and Change Climate Extremes Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Centennial Climate Change Projections Seasonal Climate Prediction Monsoons and Climate Activities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes – – – Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses A New Generation of Climate System Models Next Generation of Climate Experts: Building Capacity Regionally and Globally Applications • WCRP scientists active in planning/organizing • WCRP will: – Promote climate research in the context of climate information for decision-making WMP Modeling Summit & Model Development Climate Information System Framework – Play a major role in the scientific/technical segment (white papers, theme leaders, etc.) – Engage in the policy segment which targets heads of states, ministers, senior government officials Future Horizons Major Anticipated Outcomes of JSC 31 WCRP Visioning: Long-term functions and structure of the WCRP Role of climate research, in particular, WCRP, within the Global Framework for Climate Services Future Horizons Future Horizons Major Anticipated Outcomes of JSC 31 WCRP Visioning: Long-term functions and structure of the WCRP Role of climate research, in particular, WCRP, within the Global Framework for Climate Services Major Events of the Past Year for which WCRP has Played a Major Role •WCC-3 •OceanObs ’09 •ICSU Review and Visioning World Climate Conference-3 Better Climate Information for a Better Future A Global Framework for Climate Services Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009 WCC-3 Conference Statement • Great recognition of scientific progress made through WCRP and its associated activities • Call for major strengthening of observations and research Support the development of the Global Framework for Climate Services WCC3 – Expert Segment Called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global framework for climate services: The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and associated activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange and access to climate data; The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other global climate relevant research initiatives. Climate services information systems taking advantage of enhanced existing national and international climate service arrangements in the delivery of products, including sector-oriented information to support adaptation activities; Climate user interface mechanisms focussed on building linkages and integrating information, at all levels, between the providers and users of climate services; and Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training, and strengthened outreach and communication. WCC3 – High-Level Segment Decided to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services WMO will take the lead in putting together a task-force of high-level independent advisors The task-force will make recommendations on the elements of the Framework and the steps for its development and implementation WMO congress in 2011 will review the recommendations with a view to adopt the proposed plans Conference Objective “Ocean Information for society: sustaining the benefits, realizing the potential” Strengthen and enhance the international framework under GCOS, GOOS, WCRP, IGBP and supporting regional and national frameworks for sustained world ocean observing and information systems supporting the needs of society about ocean weather, climate, ecosystems, carbon and chemistry Conference Statement VISION: Provision of routine and sustained global information on the marine environment sufficient to meet society’s needs for describing, understanding and forecasting marine variability (including physical, biogeochemical, ecosystems and living marine resources), weather, seasonal to decadal climate variability, climate change, sustainable management of living marine resources, and assessment of longer term trends http://www.oceanobs09.net ICSU-WMO-IOCIGFA Review of WCRP Published in February 2009 Electronic version available at: http://www.icsu.org/ ICSU-WMO-IOC-IGFA Review of WCRP • • • • • Society needs the research for mitigation strategies/climate adaptation After 30 years of high achievement, the breadth of WCRP activities has outgrown the ability of society to support all the necessary research, infrastructure, and coordination. Yet the need for WCRP’s work is more important than ever WCRP has earned renown for excellence over its 30-year lifetime. This excellence provides a strong foundation for the future At the same time, there must be a strategy for prioritizing WCRP science and related activities and for conversion of WCRP science into future societal benefit. The WCRP Strategic Framework document provides a framework but lacks future priorities and an implementation plan. The absence of a detailed implementation plan will make the required societal and policy relevance more difficult to achieve in the future Yet it is the societal and policy relevance that will sustain WCRP in the long run and make the necessary resources easier to acquire ICSU-WMO-IOC-IGFA Review of WCRP Summary recommendations: 1. Focus and identify future research priorities 2. Build scientific and resource capacity 3. Enhance collaboration (national, regional, international i.e. developing countries’ scientists/institutions); use national networks as ‘source for nominations of under-represented groups’ 4. Enhance visibility and better uptake of WCRP outreach – not only at international but also regional, and national levels 5. Develop framework for future joint research (i.e. with GEC programmes and ESSP) ESSP Partnership • Build on the existing partnerships: – SOLAS; – WGCM + AIMES; – SPARC + IGAC: Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate; – CLIVAR + PAGES; – CLIVAR + IMBER; – GEWEX + iLEAPS… Extend and strengthen them. ESSP Partners • The Earth System Science Partnership is a partnership of four international global environmental change (GEC) research programme for the integrated study of the Earth System, the changes that are occurring to the system and the implications of these changes for global and regional sustainability. ICSU-WMO-IOC-IGFA Review of WCRP WCRP should develop an implementation plan for its activities, taking into account new initiatives that have emerged since COPES was completed in 2005 as well as the observations of accelerated climate change which place new demands on the science to be relevant WCRP should shift its implementation paradigm from one that builds from the parts offered its core projects and other activities to one that has clear and focused high-level objectives and clearly articulated deliverables These should be delivered primarily through WCRP-wide cross-cutting activities with the core projects focused on those components of the crosscutting activities that are unique to their mandate In particular, the modelling and the observing system research should be predominantly WCRP-wide activities The implementation should also encourage development of process studies within the broader strategic framework rather than within individual programme components Three Step Process Goal: to engage the scientific community to explore options and to propose implementation steps for a holistic strategy on the Earth system research. This strategy will both encourage scientific innovation and address policy needs Criteria for selection • Scientific importance. Does the question address a cutting-edge research challenge that could plausibly be addressed in the next decade that, if answered, can significantly advance our understanding of Global Change? • Policy relevance. Will the answer to the question help to achieve pressing global needs, including promoting sustainability, reducing poverty, and assisting the most vulnerable in coping with Global Change? • Broad support. Does the question have broad support from the research and funding community (even those not directly involved in answering the question)? • Global coordination. Is a coordinated international or global approach involving multiple researchers and disciplines needed to answer the question? • Leverage. Does the answer to the question involve a scientific or technical breakthrough, or would it create a transferable model, that would help to address multiple problems or challenges related to Global Change Science? DRAFT: Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability A Systems Approach to Research Priorities for the Decade • Challenge #1: Substantially improve the utility and reduce the uncertainty associated with regional forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences for people. • Challenge #2: Develop the observation systems needed to manage global environmental change. • Challenge #3: Determine how to anticipate, avoid and cope with dangerous global environmental change. • Challenge #4: Develop institutional and governance arrangements that can ensure global sustainability. • Challenge #5: Develop and evaluate innovative responses to achieve global sustainability. Earth System Visioning Common Threads • Broader base of expertise: – interdisciplinarity → transdisciplinarity – broader expertise in the social sciences (beyond geography and economics-> sociology/ psychology, ethics) – need for expertise in engineering/technology – need for communication experts • Enthusiasm of the community Deliberation • World Climate Conference-3, OceanObs ‘09, ICSU Review, acknowledge WCRP past contributions and identify future challenges and opportunities. • Need for more flexibility/agility to respond to expanding users needs, this include information: • At regional scale • For key sectors of global economy • For adaptation, mitigation and risk management Key Accomplishments in 2009 • Leadership and participation in WCC-3 and OceanObs ’09 • CMIP5 • TFRCD/CORDEX WCRP Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling (TFRCD) A Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling (TFRCD) has been formed under the auspices of WCRP with the mandate of designing a program to: • Build a benchmark framework to evaluate and possibly improve available RCD techniques. • Organize an international coordinated framework to produce an improved generation of multi-model RCD-based high resolution climate projections over regions worldwide for input to impact/adaptation work and to the IPCC AR5 process. • Promote greater interactions between climate modelers and endusers to better support impact/adaptation activities within the AR5 framework, and promote greater involvement of scientists from developing countries in this process. Key Accomplishments in 2009 • Leadership and participation in WCC-3 and OceanObs ’09 • CMIP5 • TFRCD/CORDEX • Modelling Coordination WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on Model Evaluation and Improvement •A "bottom-up survey" about the key deficiencies of regional and global NWP and climate models. •This survey includes problems identified in operational NWP and seasonal prediction centers as well as deficiencies that climate modelers and analysts of CMIP3 simulations have identified for the current generation of models. •The priorities identified by the survey will be the basis of model development/improvements across the entire WCRP Projects and activities, and also through its partnership with WWRP, IGBP and ESSP. •WCRP is also currently examining the scope and structure of its modeling activities and the outcome of this survey will also inform these decisions/discussions. WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on Model Evaluation and Improvement •A "bottom-up survey" about the key deficiencies of regional and global NWP and climate models. •This survey includes problems identified in operational NWP and seasonal prediction centers as well as deficiencies that climate modelers and analysts of CMIP3 simulations have identified for the current generation of models. •The priorities identified by the survey will be the basis of model development/improvements across the entire WCRP Projects and activities, and also through its partnership with WWRP, IGBP and ESSP. •WCRP is also currently examining the scope and structure of its modeling activities and the outcome of this survey will also inform these decisions/discussions. WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on Model Evaluation and Improvement To: - NWP and Seasonal Forecasting Centers - World Climate Modeling Centers - WGCM and associated MIPs (PMIP, CFMIP, C4MIP, etc) - CLIVAR modeling groups (WGOMD, WGSIP) - CLIVAR regional and monsoon panels - US CLIVAR panels and working groups, CPTs - WCRP Task force on Regional Climate Downscaling - WCRP Projects (CLiC, SPARC, GEWEX) - THORPEX, WWRP - IGBP/AIMES WCRP Modelling Theme Air-quality modelling Numerical methods Ecosystem modelling NWP 1) Confronting models with obs – ‘inward looking’ – making the most of what is produced by core projects. Connects to observations and diagnostics. GMPP CCMVal WCRP CFMIP WCRP SNOMIP PMIP WGOMD 4) Promoting improvement in models; new strategies; renewed effort and investment. WGCM Integrated Biogeochemistry assessment modelling WGSIP WCRP TFRCD WGNE ACC IPCC Impact assessments Services Stakeholders 3) Applications and intercomparisons – applying models for scientific and societal benefit, quantifying errors, multi-model ensembles, analysis and dissemination of results 2) Collaborating with others – ‘outward looking’ – insuring that WCRP modelling is informed by and complements activities in related fields. Key Accomplishments in 2009 • Leadership and participation in WCC-3 and OceanObs ’09 • CMIP5 • TFRCD/CORDEX • Modelling Coordination • CliC Sea Ice White Paper • WGSIP/CHFP • WCRP Open Science Conference Planning 2011 WCRP Open Science Conference Climate Research in Service to Society Conference Objective •The aim of WCRP is to facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth’s climate system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society. • The Open Science Conference will thus assemble the scientific community working to advance our ability to understand and predict variability and change of the Earth’s climate system on all time and space scales. •Through this synthesis of research findings and knowledge, WCRP will better inform assessments and prediction science practitioners on the state of climate science research, describe the challenges of the future, and chart pathways forward for WCRP. 2011 WCRP Open Science Conference Climate Research in Service to Society •Monday: The Climate System Components and Their Interactions •Tuesday: Observation and Analysis of the Climate System •Wednesday: Improving Predictive Capabilities •Thursday: Environmental Assessments •Friday (early a.m.): Regional Climate Friday (late a.m.): Challenges and the Future Future Horizons Looking to the future: •The vision post 2013 was strongly influenced by the evolution of climate science, research, and education in the 1980’s, 1990’s, 2000+ across the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryopshere. •Looking to the future, a major envisioned challenge and opportunity at the intersection of WCRP+IGBP is the basic and applied research in support of the: Prediction of the Earth System. WCRP/WWRP/IGBP BAMS COLLECTION • An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the 21st Century • Addressing the Complexity of the Earth System • Towards a New Generation of World Climate Research and Computing Facilities • Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction • The Multi-scale Organization of Tropical Convection and its Interaction with the Global Circulation The Chair’s Perspective on WCRP Challenges • Decadal Variability and Prediction – Coupled Data Assimilation • Projections of Future Precipitation • Development of pdfs for future extreme events • Public perception and trust of climate science – Quantifying uncertainty • Sea ice and ice sheet modeling – Seasonal forecasting of the coupled Arctic • Global Framework for Climate Services • Aerosols • -Geoengineering WCRP JSC 31 Antalya, Turkey February 15-19, 2010 Monday February 15, 2010 •Report on WCRP developments/response post Review •Welcome Remarks – Mr Mehmet Caglar, WMO Permanent Representative of Turkey •Report on JPS developments, program, personnel, budget •WCRP Visioning: Long-term functions/structure Introduction of Thematic White Papers Processes Observations Modeling Applications Capacity Building •WCRP Open Science Conference Planning •Partners (what do you require of the WCRP to support your programme goals, areas of partnership wrt to climate science and services) IPCC IGBP ESSP GCOS CAS GCOS ESA GEO WCRP JSC 31 Antalya, Turkey February 15-19, 2010 Tuesday February 16, 2010 •Joint Opening Session with CCl •Reports on high-level activities of past year –WCC-3/WMO –Ocean Obs/IOC –ICSU Visioning •Climate Services, Intergovernmental and National presentations –Present plans and what is needed from research community –WCC-3 Follow-on Task Group –Germany, US, France, UK, Japan, Canada, etc •3 Parallel breakouts (function and form of WCRP support to climate services) •Plenary report out WCRP JSC 31 Antalya, Turkey February 15-19, 2010 Wednesday February 17, 2010 • Project reports (highest level accomplishments of past year, issues/challenges for JSC) – – – – • CLIVAR CliC GEWEX SPARC Panel/WG/TF reports – – – – – ACC WOAP WGCM WGNE TFRCD WCRP JSC 31 Antalya, Turkey February 15-19, 2010 Thursday February 18, 2010 Joint Day with 15th session of WMO Commission on Climatology (CCl) • Climate System Monitoring and Research Needs • Improving our understanding of the hydrologic cycle and its changes: Observational and modeling needs • Climate Change Detection and Indices: Overview and Future Perspectives • Research Needs for Seasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction • Research Needs for Decadal to Centennial Climate Prediction: From observations to modeling • Discussion: Research needs in observations and modeling at seasonal to centennial timescales • • • • • • Providing downscaled regional climate change information for impact and adaptation: The CORDEX framework Practical Applications of Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions on Regional and National Scales Bridging the gap between climate change information, stakeholders and policy making Enhancing Linkages between Climate Service Providers and Users to Facilitate Climate Adaptation and Climate Risk Management Enhancing climate change research and application in developing countries Discussion: Research needs for enhancing the use of climate information in impact, adaptation and mitigation work WCRP JSC 31 Antalya, Turkey February 15-19, 2010 Friday February 19, 2010 • Crosscuts ACC Monsoon S-I Decadal • Parallel break outs on WCRP future structure (WCRP coordination for modelling, obs, process studies) • Plenary Report out 19:00 *NEW* Gala Dinner open to all the Participants of JSC and CCL