Download Climate Change Mitigation and The Kyoto Protocol

Climate Change Mitigation and
The Kyoto Protocol
Dave Reay
GHGonline.org
Copyright © 2003
Rio, Kyoto and beyond
1988 WMO and UNEP establish the IPCC
7 April 1995 COP1 launches a new round
The UN general assembly takes up climate
change for the first time
of negotiations on a ‘protocol or another
legal instrument’
1990 IPCC’s first assessment report
11-15 Dec 1995 IPCC approves second
Second World Climate Conference
UN general assembly and convention
assessment report on science of climate
change - underlines strong action needed
Feb 1991 INCC meets for first time
19 July 1996 COP2 takes note of the
Geneva Ministerial Declaration, which acts
as further impetus to on-going negotiations
9 May 1992 UN framework convention
11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto
on climate change adopted in New York
Protocol to the UN framework convention
on climate change in Kyoto, Japan
4 June 1992 Convention opened for
signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil
21 March 1994 Convention enters into
force, after receiving 50 ratifications
The FCCC
‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human
induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should
be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to
adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production
is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed
in a sustainable manner’
1988 WMO and UNEP establish the IPCC
7 April 1995 COP1 launches a new round
The UN general assembly takes up climate
change for the first time
of negotiations on a ‘protocol or another
legal instrument’
1990 IPCC’s first assessment report
11-15 Dec 1995 IPCC approves second
Second World Climate Conference
UN general assembly and convention
assessment report on science of climate
change - underlines strong action needed
Feb 1991 INCC meets for first time
19 July 1996 COP2 takes note of the
Geneva Ministerial Declaration, which acts
as further impetus to on-going negotiations
9 May 1992 UN framework convention
11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto
on climate change (UNFCCC) adopted in
New York
Protocol to the UN framework convention
on climate change in Kyoto, Japan
4 June 1992 Convention opened for
signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil
21 March 1994 Convention enters into
force, after receiving 50 ratifications
Rio, Kyoto and beyond
What’s a COP?
1988 WMO and UNEP establish the IPCC
7 April 1995 COP1 launches a new round
The UN general assembly takes up climate
change for the first time
of negotiations on a ‘protocol or another
legal instrument’
1990 IPCC’s first assessment report
11-15 Dec 1995 IPCC approves second
Second World Climate Conference
UN general assembly and convention
assessment report on science of climate
change - underlines strong action needed
Feb 1991 INCC meets for first time
19 July 1996 COP2 takes note of the
Geneva Ministerial Declaration, which acts
as further impetus to on-going negotiations
9 May 1992 UN framework convention
11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto
on climate change adopted in New York
Protocol to the UN framework convention
on climate change in Kyoto, Japan
4 June 1992 Convention opened for
signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil
21 March 1994 Convention enters into
force, after receiving 50 ratifications
The Kyoto Protocol
Annexe 1 Rich countries
Annexe 2 Includes developing
countries
The Kyoto Protocol
Article 2: Ways to fight increasing
GHG
Article 2.1.a.i
Enhancement of energy efficiency in
relevant sectors of the national
economy
Article 2.1.a.ii
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Article 2.1.a.iii
Promote sustainable agriculture
Article 2.1.a.iv
Research and promote new and
renewable energy
Article 2.1.a.v
Phase out any incentives for ‘bad
practice’
Article 2.1.a.vi
Encourage ‘good practices’
Article 2.1.a.vii
Limit GHG from transport
Article 2.1.a.viii
Limit methane emissions through
recovery and use
Article 2.1.b
Cooperate
Article 2.2.
Cut GHG from aviation
Figure 6-8: Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv) accumulated from
aviation’s use of fossil fuel beginning in 1940.
Article 2.3.
Be careful of wider impact - avoid
adverse effects
Article 3.1
Keep to assigned amounts of GHG
with overall worldwide reduction by
at least 5% below 1990 levels by
2008-2012
Article 3.2
Everyone must have shown progress
by 2005
Article 3.3
Verifiable changes since 1990 in
GHG emissions by sources and
removals by sinks due to direct
human-induced land-use change and
forestry can be used to meet
commitments
Article 3.4
Everyone must supply their level of
‘carbon stocks’ in 1990 so the change
since can be estimated. BUT what
sinks, sources and ‘additional
activities’ which can be added or
subtracted from GHG reduction
commitments?
Article 4
Countries can meet their
commitments together
Article 5
All countries will have in place, at
least a year before the first
commitment period (2008), a national
system for measuring GHG emission
changes
Article 6
Joint implementation -Countries can
work together to meet their emission
reduction targets
Article 7
All countries will supply the extra
information needed with the numbers
it gives i.e. perceived wider impacts
Article 8
All the information given by each
country will be reviewed by expert,
independent, review teams
Article 9
The protocol will be regularly
reviewed in light of the best
information available at the time
Article 10
All countries should develop national
and/or regional programmes to both
limit GHG emissions and improve the
quality of GHG data via consistent
methods. Cooperate
Article 11
The richer countries will provide
funds and technology to developing
countries to help them better advance
towards GHG reduction
Article 12
The Clean Development Mechanism
Article 12
Richer (annex 1) countries can help
developing countries to achieve
sustainable development and limit
GHG increases and then claim some
emission reductions for their own
targets
Article 12.5
(a) Voluntary participation by each
country
(b) Real, measurable, and long-term
benefits related to mitigating climate
change
(c) Reductions must be additional to
those which would occur anyway
Article 17
Emissions trading - countries can
trade in ‘emission units’
11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto
Protocol to the UN framework convention
on climate change in Kyoto, Japan
16 Mar 1998 Kyoto Protocol opened for
signature at UN headquarters in New York.
Receives 84 signatures in a year
14 Nov 1998 COP4 adopts the ‘Buenos Aires
plan of action’ to strengthen the Convention and
prepare for Protocol enforcement
13-24 Nov 2000 COP6 meets in The Hague,
the Netherlands, to take key decisions on the
convention and the protocol. Talks break down..
23 July 2001 COP6a Global warming
accord reached at Bonn by more than 180
countries. US notable by its absence
The Economic benefits of the
Kyoto protocol
Nature 413, 478-479 October 2001
A key objection raised by opponents of the Kyoto Protocol is that
compliance to the target of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions by 5.3%
by 2012 would impose an unacceptable economic burden. Based on an
analysis of alternative scenarios for electricity generation over the next ten
years, De Leo et al. conclude that if the costs in terms of damage to
human health, material goods, agriculture and the environment caused by
greenhouse gas emissions are included in the equation, the economic
argument against Kyoto is untenable.
11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto
August 2002 ‘Rio +10’ ‘Earth Summit 2002’,
Protocol to the UN framework convention
on climate change in Kyoto, Japan
ten years on from the 1992 ‘Earth summit’ Little
progress on energy use -EU go it alone.
16 Mar 1998 Kyoto Protocol opened for
October 2002 COP8 In New Delhi
signature at UN headquarters in New York.
Receives 84 signatures in a year
14 Nov 1998 COP4 adopts the ‘Buenos Aires
plan of action’ to strengthen the Convention and
prepare for Protocol enforcement
13-24 Nov 2000 COP6 meets in The Hague,
the Netherlands, to take key decisions on the
convention and the protocol. Talks break down..
23 July 2001 COP6a Global warming
accord reached at Bonn by more than 180
countries. US notable by its absence
29 Oct 2001 COP7 in Marrakesh,
Morocco - moves to ensure the key 55%
emissions target is reached
October 2003 Climate change
conference in Russia - will they ratify?
2004 Kyoto protocol in force? - money
being made, increasing pressure on Bush to
change his mind.
2008-2012 First commitment period
under the Kyoto Protocol
What came out of Bonn 2001?
•The proper management of forest and farmland carbon sinks can be included
•This heavy allowance for sinks could reduce the real worldwide
commitment form 5.2% to 1.8%
•No legally binding penalties for failing - to keep Japan and Russia in
•Aid for developing countries for ‘sustainable development’ totalling £370m
a year (50% form the EU)
What Next?
• If Russia ratifies then the Kyoto Protocol will come into force