Download GHG-non-CO2-Clapp

Climate Change:
Tackling Non-CO2
Greenhouse Gases
Christa Clapp, U.S. EPA
U.S. Embassy, Paris
July 12, 2007
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Overview
•Importance of non-CO2 GHGs
•Technical and economic analysis of non-CO2 GHGs
•Inventory
•Projections
•Mitigation
•Scenarios
•Addressing project level barriers through voluntary
partnerships
•Conclusions
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Importance of Non-CO2 GHGs
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Non-CO2 Gases Important Contributors to GHG Effect
N2O
7.1%
Non-CO2 GHGs have
contributed ~30% of total
anthropogenic emissions
since pre-industrial times
High GWP Gases
0.4%
CH4
22.9%
CO2
69.6%
Contribution of Anthropogenic Emissions of
Greenhouse Gases to the Enhanced Greenhouse
Effect from Pre-industrial to Present (measured in
watts/meter2) (IPCC)
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Increasing Concentrations of GHGs in
the Atmosphere
•Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased markedly
as a result of human activities since 1750
•Now far exceed pre-industrial values as determined from ice cores spanning many
thousands of years
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Non-CO2 Gases Vary in
Potency & Atmospheric Lifetime
Greenhouse Gas
Global Warming
Potential for
100 years
Atmospheric
Lifetime (years)
Carbon Dioxide
CO2
1
50-200
Methane
CH4
21
12 +/- 3
Nitrous Oxide
N2O
310
120
Hydrofluorocarbons
HFCs
140 - 11,700
1.5 - 264
Perfluorocarbons
PFCs
6,500 - 9,200
3,200 - 50,000
Sulfur Hexafluoride
SF6
23,900
3,200
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Current Snapshot of Non-CO2 GHG
Emissions
Non-CO2 gases constituted ~25% of global GHG emissions in 2000
N2O
9%
CFCs,
HFCs,
PFCs, SF6
1%
CH4
16%
CO2 - Land
Use Change
and Forestry
19%
CO2 - Fuel
and Cement
55%
Global GHG Emissions in 2000 = 40,702 MtCO2e
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Non-CO2 Gases Originate
From a Variety of Sources
METHANE
ENERGY
•
Coal Mining Activities
•
Natural Gas and Oil Systems
•
Stationary and Mobile Combustion
•
Biomass Combustion
INDUSTRIAL
•
Chemical Production
•
Iron and Steel Production
•
Metal Production
•
Mineral Products
•
Petrochemical Production
•
Silicon Carbide Production
AGRICULTURE
•
Manure Management
•
Enteric Fermentation
•
Rice Cultivation
•
Agricultural Soils
•
Field Burning of Agricultural Residues
•
Prescribed Burning of Savannas
WASTE
•
Landfilling of Solid Waste
•
Wastewater
•
Solvent and Other Product Use
•
Waste Combustion
NITROUS OXIDE
ENERGY
•
Biomass Combustion
•
Stationary and Mobile
Combustion
INDUSTRIAL
•
Adipic Acid and Nitric Acid
Production
•
Metal Production
•
Miscellaneous Industrial
Processes
AGRICULTURE
•
Manure Management
•
Agricultural Soils
•
Field Burning of Agricultural
Residues
•
Prescribed Burning of
Savannas
WASTE
•
Human Sewage
•
Fugitives from Solid Fuels
•
Fugitives from Natural Gas and
•
Oil Systems
•
Solvent and Other Product Use
•
Waste Combustion
HIGH GWP GASES
INDUSTRIAL
•
Substitutes for Ozone-Depleting
Substances (HFCs, PFCs)
•
HCFC-22 Production (HFC-23)
•
Primary Aluminum Production
(PFCs)
•
Magnesium Manufacturing (SF6)
•
Electrical Power Systems (SF6)
•
Semiconductor Manufacturing
(HFC, PFCs, SF6)
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Methane – A Potent GHG and Valuable
Resource
Global Sources of Methane in 2000
•A primary constituent
of natural gas and a
valuable, relatively
clean-burning energy
source
•Sources include:
landfills, natural gas
and petroleum systems,
agricultural activities,
coal mining, stationary
and mobile combustion,
wastewater treatment,
and certain industrial
processes.
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Technical and Economic Analyses:
Inventory, Projections and
Mitigation
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Non-CO2 Gases have Economic and
Policy Benefits
Incorporation of Non-CO2 Gases into climate
economic analysis has provided important
insights
– Non-CO2 gases originate from a range of economic
sectors, far more diverse than CO2
– Mitigation costs are typically lower than for energyrelated CO2
– The result: a large and diverse portfolio of mitigation
options and the potential for reduced costs for a given
climate policy objective
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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USEPA GHG Inventory Program:
Essential Emissions Data
•
•
Develop national
GHG inventory (all
gases, sources,
sectors)
Leadership on
development of
estimation
methodologies
Adapt national
methods for
disaggregated
inventories (i.e.,
states, sectors) &
accounting for
partnership
programs, and GHG
projects
HFCs, PFCs, & SF
Nitrous Oxide
8,000
7,000
6
Methane
Carbon Dioxide
6,519 6,571
6,242 6,186 6,286 6,444
6,831 6,856 6,920
7,065 7,104 7,204 7,262
6,931 7,147 7,027
6,000
Tg CO2 Eq.
•
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2005 (EPA #430-R-07-002)
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Global Projections of
Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases
•
•
•
Provides a consistent and comprehensive estimate of global
non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, covering:
– All non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide,
high GWP gases)
– Over ninety individual countries and eight regions
– all emitting sectors (energy, waste, agriculture, and
industrial processes)
– Covers historic and projected emissions from 1990 to
2020
– Provides information that can be used to understand
Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2
national contributions of GHG emissions, historical
progress on reductions, and mitigation opportunities Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990–2020
(USEPA, 2006)
Report has undergone an external peer review
Report and data available on USEPA’s website:
http:/www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Global Non-CO2 GHG Projections
Global Non-CO 2 Emissions (MtCO2eq)
14,000
12,000
EU-15
10,000
United States
Rest of OECD90 & EU
8,000
Non-EU Eastern Europe & FSU
China/CPA
6,000
SE Asia
Middle East
4,000
Latin America
Africa
2,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
More developed regions show sustained levels of non-CO2
emissions, while less developed regions show projected emissions
growth.
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Global Non-CO2 GHG Projections
•Competing effects in
Waste sectors keeps
emission projections flat:
Global Non-CO2 GHG Emissions by Source Category
•Growing population
trends mean more
waste emissions
14,000
12,000
10,000
MtCO2eq
•Countered by
increasing landfill
controls & recycling,
particularly in
developed nations
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
•Growing emission trends
in Energy, Industry &
Agriculture sectors, as
population grows and
energy use per capita
increases
0
1990
1995
2000
Waste
2005
Energy
Industry
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
2010
2015
2020
Agriculture
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Global Mitigation of
Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases
•
•
•
•
•
Recent focus on multi-gas strategies calls for
– improved understanding of mitigation potential
– incorporation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation
estimates in climate economic analyses, including
“offsets” analyses and integrated assessment climate
scenarios modeling
USEPA has developed a comprehensive global mitigation
analysis for non-CO2 GHGs, covering:
– all non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide,
high GWP gases)
– all emitting sectors (energy, waste, agriculture, and
industrial processes)
– all regions of the world
Based on baseline emission projections from EPA’s sister
non-CO2 projections report
Reports have undergone an external peer review
Reports and data available on USEPA’s website:
Global Mitigation of Non-CO2
Greenhouse Gases
(USEPA, 2006)
http:/www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Mitigation Cost Analysis Methodology
–Bottom-up analysis of mitigation option breakeven prices
–Determines at what carbon price a mitigation option becomes
economically viable
–Breakeven price is where NPV (benefits of the option) = NPV (costs of
implementing the option)
–Breakeven price points form a marginal abatement curve (MAC), reflecting
the economic potential for mitigation at various carbon prices
T
 1  TR P  ER  R   TB 
 1  TR RC 


  CC   
t
t 
1  DR 
t 1 
t 1  1  DR  

T
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Aggregate Results – Global MAC
Mitigation of non-CO2 gases can
play an important role in climate
strategies.
– Worldwide, the potential for costeffective non-CO2 greenhouse
gas abatement is significant (>
500 MtCO2eq).
– As the breakeven price rises,
the mitigation potential grows.
The global mitigation potential at
a price of $10/tCO2eq is
approximately 2,000 MtCO2eq.
– In the higher range of breakeven
prices, the MAC becomes
steeper, and less mitigation
potential exists for each
additional increase in price.
– Negative breakeven price points
indicate options that are cost
effective without a carbon price,
but may not be deployed in the
market due to information or
other barriers
Global Total Aggregate MAC in 2020
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Aggregate Results – MACs by Sector
Globally, the sectors with the
greatest potential for
mitigation of non-CO2
greenhouse gases are the
energy and agriculture
sectors.
– At a breakeven price of
$10/tCO2eq, the potential for
reduction of non-CO2
greenhouse gases is greater
than 750 MtCO2eq in the
energy sector, and
approximately 500 MtCO2eq
in the agriculture sector.
– While less than that of the
energy and agriculture
sectors, mitigation potential
in the waste and industrial
process sectors can play an
important role, particularly in
the absence of a carbon
price incentive.
Global 2020 MACs by Major Sector
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Aggregate Results – MACs by GHG
Methane mitigation has the
largest potential across all
the non-CO2 greenhouse
gases.
– At a cost-effective level,
the potential for methane
mitigation is greater than
500 MtCO2eq.
– The potential for reducing
methane emissions grows
three-fold as the
breakeven price rises
from $0 to $20/tCO2eq.
– While less than that of
methane, nitrous oxide
and high-GWP gases
exhibit significant costeffective mitigation
potential.
Global 2020 MACs by Greenhouse Gas Type
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Aggregate Results –
MACs by Region
Major emitting countries of the
world offer large potential
mitigation opportunities.
– China, the United States, the
European Union, India and
Brazil emit the most non-CO2
greenhouse gases. As the
largest emitters, they also
offer important mitigation
opportunities.
– These countries show
significant mitigation potential
in the lower range of
breakeven prices, with the
MACs getting steeper in the
higher range of breakeven
prices as each additional ton
of emissions becomes more
expensive to reduce.
Global 2020 MACs by Major Emitting Countries
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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EMF-21:
Cost-effective non-CO2 mitigation
Stanford University’s
Energy Modeling Forum
Working Group 21 (EMF-21)
•Coordinated international modeling effort
•18 models run using a consistent approach
•Time horizon out to 2100 for most models
•Incorporated new non-CO2 emissions and
mitigation data into economy-wide models
•Focused specifically on multiple gas strategies
•Results published in special issue of Energy
Journal, Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and
Climate Policy
Stabilization at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
Source: Weyant and de la Chesnaye (2006)22
EMF-21: Cost-effective non-CO2
mitigation
•Model results show lower carbon prices in Multigas Scenarios versus CO2-only
Scenarios (for 17 out of 18 models).
•Majority of results indicate 20-60% lower carbon permit prices in the Multigas Scenarios.
Ratio of Carbon Permit Price in Multigas Scenario vs. CO2-Only Scenario
1.0
AIM
AMIGA
COMBAT
0.8
EDGE
EPPA
GEMINI-E3
0.6
GRAPE
GTEM
IMAGE
0.4
IPAC
MERGE
MESSAGE
0.2
MiniCAM
PACE
POLES
0.0
2000
SGM
2025
2050
2075
2100
Note: EPPA model reports in 1997 USD. All other models report 2000 USD values. FUND model results show higher carbon prices in
the multigas scenarios. FUND results are not show n in this graphic due to scale.
Source: Weyant and
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
WIAGEM
23
de la Chesnaye (2006)
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
“Mitigation of Climate Change”
Including non-CO2 mitigation options provides greater flexibility and costeffectiveness for achieving stabilization.
Office
of Atmospheric
Programs
Source: IPCCU.S.
Fourth EPA
Assessment
Report,
Working Group III, “Mitigation
of Climate Change”
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Continuing Efforts
in Non-CO2 Analysis
•Purdue University’s Global Trade Analysis Project
•Working with EPA towards a non-CO2 emissions database that is
integrated with GTAP economic activity, energy volume, and CO2
emissions databases
•International Energy Agency
•Incorporating EPA methane mitigation into Energy Technology
Perspectives modeling
•Results to be published in a chapter devoted to methane in 2008
publication of IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives
•Continuing work & collaboration to improve data and refine analyses
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Project Level:
Voluntary Partnerships
Address Barriers
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Significant Benefits of Methane
Mitigation Projects
Methane mitigation technology exists:
•
Landfill gas flaring or capture for direct use or
electricity generation
•
Natural gas systems equipment
upgrades/replacements and changes in operational
practices, inspection & maintenance
•
Oil systems flaring or capture for direct use or
enhanced oil recovery
•
Coal mine methane flaring or capture through degas
procedures or ventilation air methane for direct use
or electricity generation
•
Animal waste management using anaerobic
digesters
Multiple benefits of methane mitigation projects:
•
Increased energy efficiency & reduced energy waste
•
Improved industrial/mine safety and productivity
•
Improved air quality, water quality and reduced odors
•
Reduced greenhouse gas emissions
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Despite Benefits,
Barriers Exist
Despite potential for project level cost savings and
environmental benefits, barriers to mitigating
methane emissions continue to exist:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Lack of awareness of emission levels and value of lost
fuel
Lack of information on and training in available
technologies and management practices
Traditional industry practices
Regulatory and legal issues
Limited methane markets and infrastructure
Uncertain investment climate
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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International M2M Voluntary
Partnerships Address Barriers
M2M Partner Countries
•International Framework to Advance the
Recovery and Use of Methane as a Clean
Energy Source
•20 Partner Countries & 550 public and
private Project Network Members
•U.S. commitment of $53 million over five
years, with total leveraged investment of
over $235 million
•Ongoing projects and activities are
expected to achieve annual emission
reductions of 5 MtCO2e
•New Opportunity: Partnership Expo,
Beijing (30 Oct - 1 Nov, 2007)
Argentina
Japan
Australia
Korea
Brazil
Mexico
Canada
Nigeria
Colombia
Poland
China
Russia
Ecuador
Ukraine
Germany
United Kingdom
India
United States
Italy
Vietnam
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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International M2M Voluntary
Partnerships Address Barriers
Goal: Advance cost-effective recovery and use
of methane as a valuable clean energy
source in four sectors:
• Coal mines
• Landfills
• Oil and gas systems
• Agriculture (manure waste management)
Key activities to advance project development
• Identify and assess project opportunities
• Support technology transfer, training, and
capacity building
• Address barriers to project development and
increase access to information
• Technology demonstration and deployment
Coal Mines
Landfills
Oil and Gas Systems
Agriculture
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Conclusions
• Non-CO2 GHGs offer significant opportunities for costeffective mitigation, particularly in the near-term
• From a range of diverse sources with varied mitigation
options
• Can reduce costs of meeting a given climate policy
objective
• Commercially available mitigation technologies and
practices
• Multiple project level & local benefits
• Barriers exist but are being addressed through Methane
to Markets voluntary public-private international
partnership
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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Contact Information
For more information:
EPA’s Climate Change Website
www.epa.gov/climatechange
EPA’s Non-CO2 Projections and Mitigation Reports
http://www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html
EPA’s Methane to Markets Program
http://www.epa.gov/methanetomarkets/
Christa Clapp
Economist, Climate Change Division
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
[email protected]
202-343-9807
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
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