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NASA Grant-Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) Creation and Dissemination of an Interdisciplinary Undergraduate General Education Course on Climate Change 3. Project Description b. Goals and Objectives i. Our overall goal is to familiarize a broad range of undergraduate students with how scientific information can guide decisions about complex problems such as global climate change. ii. The topic of global climate change provides an appropriate focus. a) b) c) d) Society’s response to global climate change is at critical juncture where undergraduate education can broaden public understanding of the issues as well as create solutions to the problems that are arising. It is a controversial issue that will continue to play a critical role in the lives of our students. It serves as point of entry into many disciplines including geophysics, chemistry, biology and health sciences, engineering, economics, political science, and sociology. These disciplines sometimes require different types of scientific information or sometimes use the same type of information (e.g., output from computer models) in different ways. iii. We will develop materials (web modules, essay topics, and laboratory exercises) for students who have knowledge of basic science concepts at a high-school level. a) b) c) Many of these materials are already in use at some of the institutions participating in the project. Extending to the other participating institutions will evaluate these materials in diverse venues as well as encourage the expansion of materials. Addition of laboratory exercises that analyze remote sensing data will directly engage students in the scientific process using primary sources of information. iv. At a minimum, students will address the following questions about Earth’s climate. a) b) c) d) What is climate and how is it characterized? How has Earth’s climate varied in the past and what factors are responsible for this variation? Are current changes in Earth’s climate distinct from past changes, and if so, what other factors may be responsible? How accurately do computer models simulate Earth’s past climate, what do these models predict about climate during the coming decades, and how certain are such predictions? v. Participating institutions will have the opportunity to add topics that address questions about climate effects and solutions. a) b) c) d) e) How may humans and other organisms respond to rapid climate change? What are our options for energy production and conservation? What are the economic implications of climate effects and solutions? How may sovereign nations coordinate their mitigation efforts? How do various human societies view long-term risks, and how does this view affect their policies on climate change? vi. The number of topics covered in the general education course will determine the breadth and depth of treatment. vii. Web surveys of students at each institution in the beginning and end of the course will evaluate opinions on scientific inquiry in general and global climate change in specific, and about whether or not the course influenced views about their future career choices. viii. Participating instructors will share experiences and discuss best practices by conference calls every two months and at the annual meetings of the Council of Environmental Deans and Directors (CEDD). c. Project Content i. Our team is developing a robust curricular package for a general education course on climate change that universities across the country can readily adopt and adapt. ii. The team is led by Dr. David Blockstein. a) b) Dr. Blockstein is the Director of Education and Senior Scientist at the National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) (http://ncseonline.org/), a not-for-profit organization dedicated to improving the scientific basis for environmental decision-making. He also serves as Executive Secretary of the Council of Environmental Deans and Directors (CEDD) (http://ncseonline.org/CEDD/), an association of institutional representatives who come together to improve the quality, stature and effectiveness of academic environmental programs at 157 U.S. universities and colleges. iii. The basis for this effort will be the course that has been taught for the past 6 years at the University of California Davis by Professor Arnold Bloom and now has an enrollment of over 200 students every year. a) b) c) His new textbook on the topic will be a key resource for the project. Appendix I of the proposal presents a detailed Table of Contents of this book. We will focus on the development of course components based on NASA resources that encourage students to study the issues independently and propose solutions based on objective information. iv. Professor Susan Ustin, also of UC Davis, who has extensive experience in using satellite and other high-altitude multispectral images to study Earth’s environment, will be the primary person for NASA-related resources. a) b) Dr. Ustin directs the Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing (CSTARS) (http://cstars.ucdavis.edu/) that provides leadership and coordination of environmental remote sensing applications, education and outreach programs that promote core remote sensing and spatial technologies, and environmental content applications. CSTARS is a California Space Institute Center of Excellence. v. Dr. Andy Jorgensen of the University of Toledo, who is presently Senior Fellow at NCSE and has been involved in both classroom and web-based curricular development, will coordinate the creation of new materials. vi. We will conduct the project in two phases. a) b) c) d) In Phase I representatives from six CEDD institutions (Florida A & M University, Unity College, University of California Davis, University of Nevada Las Vegas, University of Richmond, and University of Texas at El Paso) will create curricular components that span a range of topics central to climate change. This material and the course from UC Davis will form the basis of an offering of a trial course taught at each of these schools in the first year. At the conclusion of the initial set of offerings, Drs. Anne-Barrie Hunter and Elaine Seymour of the Ethnography & Evaluation Research Center at the University of Colorado will direct an evaluation of the program to guide the production of modules for use in Phase II. In this second phase at least ten CEDD institutions will teach the course adapted for their interests and expertise. A final evaluation will allow the creation of flexible curriculum modules that a wide range of universities should find useful. vii. The research base on which the project is grounded is the collection of remote sensing images at UC Davis and easy-to-use tools for comparing and contrasting images taking over decadal intervals. a) b) c) d) e) Students will select a location and spectral bands indicative of a particular environmental parameter. They will assess long-term changes in the environmental parameter. They will associate changes in the environmental parameter with other long-term trends. They will discuss the role of such information in evaluating policies on climate change. Each campus will select the best reports written about the results of this exercise, and we will invite these students to attend the annual NCSE conference in Washington, D.C. (Interesting thought. Should we think about what the topic of the conference will be for these years to see if it is applicable? I presume that we are not offering travel funds – that 150k doesn’t go very far!) viii. The content of this general education course will have the advantage of thorough testing in a variety of settings and carry the imprimatur of a nationally-recognized organization which has been a leader in the field of science education. d. Anticipated Results i. The general education course that we develop will expose a broad range of undergraduates to scientific reasoning about the complex issue of global climate change. (I really like b-d!) a) b) c) d) This course should heighten awareness on the importance of accurate and comprehensive scientific data. It should reinforce that events can still be probable although they may not be certain. It should highlight that an interdisciplinary approach is appropriate for problems of broad scope. It should instill optimism that human ingenuity can solve major problems once people acknowledge them and commit to address them. ii. The diversity of venues and students involved in the first phase of the project should identify the educational materials that require simplification, expansion, or deletion and indicate which materials are most successful with particular audiences. iii. The second phase of the project should verify which of the trends observed in the first phase are significant and further refine and extend the materials available for use. iv. Direct student use of primary data sources for remote sensing should engage students in the scientific methods and hopefully inspire them to pursue careers in this area. Appendix I Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines Arnold J. Bloom, University of California at Davis Sinauer Associates, 2008 Table of Contents 1) 2) 3) 4) 1. Introduction a. Perspective b. Definition of Climate c. History of Research on Climate i. d. Last Billion Years i. Key Trends a) b) Temperature Carbon Dioxide a) b) c) d) e) f) Callendar Landsberg Godzilla Revelle Keeling Mann i. Scientific Consensus ii. Shift in Energy Industry e. Last Million i. Ice Cores a) b) c) e. Tell-Tale Signs i. Kilimanjaro ii. Polar Ice Caps iii. Invasions of Russia Temperature Time Atmospheric Gases f. Last Millenium i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. 2. History of Earth’s Climate a. Intro to Proxy Measures b. Carbon Dioxide Reactions c. Ancient Climate Variations Earth Formed Cyanobacteria & BIF Snowball Earth Great Oxidation Event Isotopic Measures c) Change in Solar Radiation Change in Land Masses ii. Cambrian Explosion iii. Paleomagnetism iv. O-S Extinction v. Ascent onto Land vi. Great Dying vii. Age of Dinosaurs viii. K-T Boundary ix. Late Paleocene Thermal Max d. Changing Opinions a) b) Snowball II a) b) ii. Key Players in 20th Century i. ii. iii. iv. v. Carbon Boron Oxygen Hydrogen Tree Rings Coral Reefs Glacial Extent Bore Holes Ice Cores Direct Measurements g. Sea Levels i. Volume Changes ii. Melting Land Ice iii. Measures a) b) Element Isotope 1) Stable 2) Radioactive 3) Dating 4) Discrimination 5) Phase Changes Examples Tide Gauges Satellites h. Major Storms i. Homeostasis 3. Forcing Factors a. External Forcing Factors i. –4– Galactic Variations ii. Orbital Physics i. Spectral Analysis ii. Discretization a) b) c) Cosine Law Kepler’s 2nd Law Inverse Square Law e. Forcing Factors a) b) c) Obliquity Eccentricity Precession f. Carbon a) b) Theory Practice i. Predictability ii. Scenarios for GHG Emissions iii. Orbital Variations i. Global Cycle ii. Sources & Emissions iii. Sinks & Concentrations iv. Milankovitch Theory v. Sunspots g. Methane i. Sources & Emissions ii. Sinks & Concentrations b. Internal Forcing Factors i. ii. iii. iv. v. Orogeny Epeirogeny Volcanism Albedo Atmospheric Composition h. Nitrous Oxide i. Global Cycle ii. Sources & Emissions iii. Sinks & Concentrations i. i. ii. iii. iv. Definition of Energy Particle-Waves Black-Body Radiation Forms of Transfer a) b) c) Transmittance Reflectance Absorbance a) Concentrations j. Testing GCMs k. Anthropogenic vs. Natural i. Many Lines of Evidence ii. Skeptics Denied l. vi. Absorption Spectra 1) Vibrating Molecules 2) Emissions d. Greenhouse Effect e. Clouds Predictions i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. v. Gases in Atmosphere i. Warming Potential ii. Energy Balance iii. Misnomer CFCs & HCFCs i. Sources & Emissions ii. Sinks & Concentrations c. Electromagnetic Energy Temperatures & Albedo Sea Level Precipitation Ocean Acidification Major Storms Forest Fires 5. Biological Impacts of Rising CO2 a. Rising CO2 & Declining O2 b. Direct Effect on Plants i. Plant Resources ii. Energy i. Greater Albedo ii. Greater Backradiation f. Ocean Currents i. Thermohaline Circulation ii. North Atlantic Oscillation a) b) c) C3 Carbon Fixation Photorespiration C4 Carbon Fixation a) b) Crassulacean Acid Metabolism Water Use Efficiency iii. Water g. Storms i. Energy Release ii. Storm Initiation iv. Nutrients a) b) 4. Climate in the Future: GCMs a. Modeling Approaches Nitrogen Assimilation v. Plant Growth Systems vi. CO2 Acclimation vii. Nitrogen Relations viii. Bloom’s Hypothesis ix. Food Quality i. Physical Models ii. Mathematical/Computer Models b. Core Equations c. Limitations c. CO2 Sensing i. Computer Resources ii. Grid Size & Time Step iii. Coupled Models i. Plants ii. Bacteria iii. Fungi d. Changes in Time and Space –5– iv. Insects f. Biofuels i. Biomass Production ii. Transport of Biomass iii. Biomass Processing 6. Climate Change & the Biosphere a. Increasing Temperatures i. ii. iii. iv. v. Biochemistry and Q10 Temperature Limits Developmental Rates Range & Seasonality Examples a) b) c) d) e) f) g) h) Polar Bears Penguins Baleen Whales Flying Birds Grapes Coral Reefs Amphibians Human Pathogens a) b) c) d) e) iv. Overall Efficiency 8. Mitigation: Electric Power a. Industrial Power b. Coal-Fired Plants c. Natural Gas d. Carbon Capture & Storage i. vi. Soil Carbon vii. Heat Waves b. Precipitation i. Species Distributions ii. Food Production i. Conformation of Biochemicals ii. Energy Storage iii. Ocean pH Mix of Vehicles Efficiency of Mix Safety Costs a) b) c) Batteries Motors Hybrids Conversion into Carbonates Sea Storage Storage in Geological Formations Photovoltaic High Temperature Thermal Solar Heating iv. Geothermal v. Wave & Tide 9. Mitigation: Ag, Forestry, Industry, Commerce, & Residences a. Agriculture i. ii. iii. iv. v. Nitrogen Management Minimum Tillage Rice Production Biomass Burning Livestock b. Forestry i. Natural Gas ii. Hydrogen Storage Fuel Cells Reliability Production Distribution a) b) c) a) b) c) d. Public Transport e. Alternative Fuels a) b) c) d) e) Physical Methods Chemical Methods Oxy-Fuel Plants Concentrating CO2 CO2 Transport i. Hydroelectric ii. Wind iii. Solar 7. Mitigation Strategies: Transportation a. Rehabilitation b. Energy Conservation c. Light-Duty Vehicles a) b) c) d) a) b) c) d) e) e. Nuclear Power Plants f. Renewable Energy e. Perspectives Driving Conditions Taxes Consumer Preferences Diesel-Powered Vehicles Agreements with Manufacturers Capture, Concentrate, Transport ii. CO2 Storage c. Salinity d. Acid-Base i. ii. iii. iv. v. Burning Sugar to Ethanol Starch to Ethanol Cellulose to Ethanol Biodiesel i. Land Use Changes ii. Carbon Sequestration c. Industry i. Motors ii. Steam iii. Industry Specific iii. Electric & Hybrids a) b) Metal Smelting Cement Production d. Commercial & Residential Sources i. –6– Heating & Cooling a) b) c) d) Thermal Leakage Insulation Windows & Doors HVAC a) b) c) d) Incandescents Fluorescents LEDs HIDs a) b) Refrigerators TVs a) b) ii. Hot Water iii. Lighting c) iii. Decisions under Uncertainty a) iv. Appliances v. Inner Space b) e. Geoengineering i. Global Dimming a) b) c) Sunshades SO2 Cloud Seeding c) ii. Fertilizing Oceans 10. Economics of Climate Change a. Market Forces: Supply vs. Demand i. a) b) c) d) Market Free Market Controlled Market Market Demand Market Supply Equilibrium Price Market Forces Taxes Tax Reductions Price Floors Price Ceilings Permits Regulations a) b) National Interests Monopolies or Cartels 1) Utilities & Natural Monopolies 2) Electric Power Utilities 3) Deregulation Free Goods & Services 1) Invisible Hand 2) Externalities 3) Tragedy of the Commons 4) Atmospheric Pollution Lack of Information 1) Loss of Earth Observing Satellites 2) Diminishing Research Funds Multigenerational Time Scales i. Nordhaus vs. Stern ii. Appropriate Policies 11. International Agreements & Politics a. International Cooperation i. d) e) Treaties vs. Agreements Approval a) b) Language Compliance a) b) c) Armed Conflict Trade Prestige b. Past Experiences i. Fishing Rights a) b) c) Territorial Waters Whales Tuna a) b) Framework Results ii. Montreal Protocol c. Kyoto Protocol i. History ii. Framework iii. Current Situation Accuracy a) b) a) b) iii. Enforcement b. Cost vs. Benefit Analysis i. Enactment ii. Interpretation iii. Failure of Market Forces c) Fairness Pareto Optimality Game Theory Nash Equilibrium c. Economic Models ii. Governmental Policies a) b) c) d) e) f) Technological Change 1) Externalities 2) Incentives for Innovation 3) Patents & Copyrights 4) DOE Cost/Benefit of Research Discount Rate 1) Impatience Principle 2) Marginal Productivity of Capital 3) Opportunity Cost of Capital 4) Impact of Discount Rate Intergenerational Equity 1) Endowments 2) Natural Resources 3) Survey of Economists iv. Distributional Issues Definitions a) b) c) d) e) f) g) Aethetic & Cultural Values 1) Revealed Perference Techniques 2) Stated Preference Techniques Human Welfare 1) Value of Statistical Life 2) Quality of Life 3) Time = Money Risk Avoidance Reference Class Forecasting Incentives for Objectivity a) b) ii. Intangible Benefits –7– Participants Compliance c) Effects d. Bali, beyond Kyoto e. Players i. Environmental Movement a) b) Death of Environmentalism Maturation ii. Relevant Industries iii. National Security 12. Cultural Factors a. Public Opinion i. Polls ii. Public Relation Efforts b. Two Cultures: S. P. Snow c. Rise and Fall of Civilizations i. Jared Diamond ii. Food & Development of Agriculture iii. Hierarchical Societies d. Religion i. Apocalypse ii. Good Stewardship iii. Ancestors e. Views of the Future i. Financial Security a) b) c) Investments Savings Pensions ii. Quality of Life iii. Risk f. Sources of Optimism i. ii. iii. iv. v. Human Population Growth Abates Global Education Levels Increase Technology Advances Public Support Grows Everybody Talks about Weather –8–