Download 10. Economics of Climate Change

NASA Grant-Global Climate Change Education (GCCE)
Creation and Dissemination of an Interdisciplinary
Undergraduate General Education Course on Climate Change
3. Project Description
b. Goals and Objectives
i.
Our overall goal is to familiarize a broad range of undergraduate students with how scientific
information can guide decisions about complex problems such as global climate change.
ii. The topic of global climate change provides an appropriate focus.
a)
b)
c)
d)
Society’s response to global climate change is at critical juncture where undergraduate education can
broaden public understanding of the issues as well as create solutions to the problems that are arising.
It is a controversial issue that will continue to play a critical role in the lives of our students.
It serves as point of entry into many disciplines including geophysics, chemistry, biology and health
sciences, engineering, economics, political science, and sociology.
These disciplines sometimes require different types of scientific information or sometimes use the
same type of information (e.g., output from computer models) in different ways.
iii. We will develop materials (web modules, essay topics, and laboratory exercises) for students who
have knowledge of basic science concepts at a high-school level.
a)
b)
c)
Many of these materials are already in use at some of the institutions participating in the project.
Extending to the other participating institutions will evaluate these materials in diverse venues as well
as encourage the expansion of materials.
Addition of laboratory exercises that analyze remote sensing data will directly engage students in the
scientific process using primary sources of information.
iv. At a minimum, students will address the following questions about Earth’s climate.
a)
b)
c)
d)
What is climate and how is it characterized?
How has Earth’s climate varied in the past and what factors are responsible for this variation?
Are current changes in Earth’s climate distinct from past changes, and if so, what other factors may be
responsible?
How accurately do computer models simulate Earth’s past climate, what do these models predict
about climate during the coming decades, and how certain are such predictions?
v. Participating institutions will have the opportunity to add topics that address questions about
climate effects and solutions.
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
How may humans and other organisms respond to rapid climate change?
What are our options for energy production and conservation?
What are the economic implications of climate effects and solutions?
How may sovereign nations coordinate their mitigation efforts?
How do various human societies view long-term risks, and how does this view affect their policies on
climate change?
vi. The number of topics covered in the general education course will determine the breadth and
depth of treatment.
vii. Web surveys of students at each institution in the beginning and end of the course will evaluate
opinions on scientific inquiry in general and global climate change in specific, and about whether
or not the course influenced views about their future career choices.
viii. Participating instructors will share experiences and discuss best practices by conference calls
every two months and at the annual meetings of the Council of Environmental Deans and
Directors (CEDD).
c. Project Content
i.
Our team is developing a robust curricular package for a general education course on climate
change that universities across the country can readily adopt and adapt.
ii. The team is led by Dr. David Blockstein.
a)
b)
Dr. Blockstein is the Director of Education and Senior Scientist at the National Council for Science
and the Environment (NCSE) (http://ncseonline.org/), a not-for-profit organization dedicated to
improving the scientific basis for environmental decision-making.
He also serves as Executive Secretary of the Council of Environmental Deans and Directors (CEDD)
(http://ncseonline.org/CEDD/), an association of institutional representatives who come together to
improve the quality, stature and effectiveness of academic environmental programs at 157 U.S.
universities and colleges.
iii. The basis for this effort will be the course that has been taught for the past 6 years at the
University of California Davis by Professor Arnold Bloom and now has an enrollment of over
200 students every year.
a)
b)
c)
His new textbook on the topic will be a key resource for the project.
Appendix I of the proposal presents a detailed Table of Contents of this book.
We will focus on the development of course components based on NASA resources that encourage
students to study the issues independently and propose solutions based on objective information.
iv. Professor Susan Ustin, also of UC Davis, who has extensive experience in using satellite and
other high-altitude multispectral images to study Earth’s environment, will be the primary
person for NASA-related resources.
a)
b)
Dr. Ustin directs the Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing (CSTARS)
(http://cstars.ucdavis.edu/) that provides leadership and coordination of environmental remote
sensing applications, education and outreach programs that promote core remote sensing and spatial
technologies, and environmental content applications.
CSTARS is a California Space Institute Center of Excellence.
v. Dr. Andy Jorgensen of the University of Toledo, who is presently Senior Fellow at NCSE and
has been involved in both classroom and web-based curricular development, will coordinate the
creation of new materials.
vi. We will conduct the project in two phases.
a)
b)
c)
d)
In Phase I representatives from six CEDD institutions (Florida A & M University, Unity College,
University of California Davis, University of Nevada Las Vegas, University of Richmond, and
University of Texas at El Paso) will create curricular components that span a range of topics central to
climate change. This material and the course from UC Davis will form the basis of an offering of a
trial course taught at each of these schools in the first year.
At the conclusion of the initial set of offerings, Drs. Anne-Barrie Hunter and Elaine Seymour of the
Ethnography & Evaluation Research Center at the University of Colorado will direct an evaluation of
the program to guide the production of modules for use in Phase II.
In this second phase at least ten CEDD institutions will teach the course adapted for their interests
and expertise.
A final evaluation will allow the creation of flexible curriculum modules that a wide range of
universities should find useful.
vii. The research base on which the project is grounded is the collection of remote sensing images at
UC Davis and easy-to-use tools for comparing and contrasting images taking over decadal
intervals.
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Students will select a location and spectral bands indicative of a particular environmental parameter.
They will assess long-term changes in the environmental parameter.
They will associate changes in the environmental parameter with other long-term trends.
They will discuss the role of such information in evaluating policies on climate change.
Each campus will select the best reports written about the results of this exercise, and we will invite
these students to attend the annual NCSE conference in Washington, D.C. (Interesting thought.
Should we think about what the topic of the conference will be for these years to see if it is applicable?
I presume that we are not offering travel funds – that 150k doesn’t go very far!)
viii. The content of this general education course will have the advantage of thorough testing in a
variety of settings and carry the imprimatur of a nationally-recognized organization which has
been a leader in the field of science education.
d. Anticipated Results
i.
The general education course that we develop will expose a broad range of undergraduates to
scientific reasoning about the complex issue of global climate change. (I really like b-d!)
a)
b)
c)
d)
This course should heighten awareness on the importance of accurate and comprehensive scientific
data.
It should reinforce that events can still be probable although they may not be certain.
It should highlight that an interdisciplinary approach is appropriate for problems of broad scope.
It should instill optimism that human ingenuity can solve major problems once people acknowledge
them and commit to address them.
ii. The diversity of venues and students involved in the first phase of the project should identify the
educational materials that require simplification, expansion, or deletion and indicate which
materials are most successful with particular audiences.
iii. The second phase of the project should verify which of the trends observed in the first phase are
significant and further refine and extend the materials available for use.
iv. Direct student use of primary data sources for remote sensing should engage students in the
scientific methods and hopefully inspire them to pursue careers in this area.
Appendix I
Global Climate Change: Convergence of Disciplines
Arnold J. Bloom, University of California at Davis
Sinauer Associates, 2008
Table of Contents
1)
2)
3)
4)
1. Introduction
a. Perspective
b. Definition of Climate
c. History of Research on Climate
i.
d. Last Billion Years
i.
Key Trends
a)
b)
Temperature
Carbon Dioxide
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
Callendar
Landsberg
Godzilla
Revelle
Keeling
Mann
i. Scientific Consensus
ii. Shift in Energy Industry
e. Last Million
i.
Ice Cores
a)
b)
c)
e. Tell-Tale Signs
i. Kilimanjaro
ii. Polar Ice Caps
iii. Invasions of Russia
Temperature
Time
Atmospheric Gases
f. Last Millenium
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
2. History of Earth’s Climate
a. Intro to Proxy Measures
b. Carbon Dioxide Reactions
c. Ancient Climate Variations
Earth Formed
Cyanobacteria & BIF
Snowball Earth
Great Oxidation Event
Isotopic Measures
c)
Change in Solar Radiation
Change in Land Masses
ii. Cambrian Explosion
iii. Paleomagnetism
iv. O-S Extinction
v. Ascent onto Land
vi. Great Dying
vii. Age of Dinosaurs
viii. K-T Boundary
ix. Late Paleocene Thermal Max
d. Changing Opinions
a)
b)
Snowball II
a)
b)
ii. Key Players in 20th Century
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Carbon
Boron
Oxygen
Hydrogen
Tree Rings
Coral Reefs
Glacial Extent
Bore Holes
Ice Cores
Direct Measurements
g. Sea Levels
i. Volume Changes
ii. Melting Land Ice
iii. Measures
a)
b)
Element
Isotope
1) Stable
2) Radioactive
3) Dating
4) Discrimination
5) Phase Changes
Examples
Tide Gauges
Satellites
h. Major Storms
i. Homeostasis
3. Forcing Factors
a. External Forcing Factors
i.
–4–
Galactic Variations
ii. Orbital Physics
i. Spectral Analysis
ii. Discretization
a)
b)
c)
Cosine Law
Kepler’s 2nd Law
Inverse Square Law
e. Forcing Factors
a)
b)
c)
Obliquity
Eccentricity
Precession
f. Carbon
a)
b)
Theory
Practice
i. Predictability
ii. Scenarios for GHG Emissions
iii. Orbital Variations
i. Global Cycle
ii. Sources & Emissions
iii. Sinks & Concentrations
iv. Milankovitch Theory
v. Sunspots
g. Methane
i. Sources & Emissions
ii. Sinks & Concentrations
b. Internal Forcing Factors
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Orogeny
Epeirogeny
Volcanism
Albedo
Atmospheric Composition
h. Nitrous Oxide
i. Global Cycle
ii. Sources & Emissions
iii. Sinks & Concentrations
i.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
Definition of Energy
Particle-Waves
Black-Body Radiation
Forms of Transfer
a)
b)
c)
Transmittance
Reflectance
Absorbance
a)
Concentrations
j. Testing GCMs
k. Anthropogenic vs. Natural
i. Many Lines of Evidence
ii. Skeptics Denied
l.
vi. Absorption Spectra
1) Vibrating Molecules
2) Emissions
d. Greenhouse Effect
e. Clouds
Predictions
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
v. Gases in Atmosphere
i. Warming Potential
ii. Energy Balance
iii. Misnomer
CFCs & HCFCs
i. Sources & Emissions
ii. Sinks & Concentrations
c. Electromagnetic Energy
Temperatures & Albedo
Sea Level
Precipitation
Ocean Acidification
Major Storms
Forest Fires
5. Biological Impacts of Rising CO2
a. Rising CO2 & Declining O2
b. Direct Effect on Plants
i. Plant Resources
ii. Energy
i. Greater Albedo
ii. Greater Backradiation
f. Ocean Currents
i. Thermohaline Circulation
ii. North Atlantic Oscillation
a)
b)
c)
C3 Carbon Fixation
Photorespiration
C4 Carbon Fixation
a)
b)
Crassulacean Acid Metabolism
Water Use Efficiency
iii. Water
g. Storms
i. Energy Release
ii. Storm Initiation
iv. Nutrients
a)
b)
4. Climate in the Future: GCMs
a. Modeling Approaches
Nitrogen
Assimilation
v. Plant Growth Systems
vi. CO2 Acclimation
vii. Nitrogen Relations
viii. Bloom’s Hypothesis
ix. Food Quality
i. Physical Models
ii. Mathematical/Computer Models
b. Core Equations
c. Limitations
c. CO2 Sensing
i. Computer Resources
ii. Grid Size & Time Step
iii. Coupled Models
i. Plants
ii. Bacteria
iii. Fungi
d. Changes in Time and Space
–5–
iv. Insects
f. Biofuels
i. Biomass Production
ii. Transport of Biomass
iii. Biomass Processing
6. Climate Change & the Biosphere
a. Increasing Temperatures
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Biochemistry and Q10
Temperature Limits
Developmental Rates
Range & Seasonality
Examples
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
h)
Polar Bears
Penguins
Baleen Whales
Flying Birds
Grapes
Coral Reefs
Amphibians
Human Pathogens
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
iv. Overall Efficiency
8. Mitigation: Electric Power
a. Industrial Power
b. Coal-Fired Plants
c. Natural Gas
d. Carbon Capture & Storage
i.
vi. Soil Carbon
vii. Heat Waves
b. Precipitation
i. Species Distributions
ii. Food Production
i. Conformation of Biochemicals
ii. Energy Storage
iii. Ocean pH
Mix of Vehicles
Efficiency of Mix
Safety
Costs
a)
b)
c)
Batteries
Motors
Hybrids
Conversion into Carbonates
Sea Storage
Storage in Geological Formations
Photovoltaic
High Temperature Thermal
Solar Heating
iv. Geothermal
v. Wave & Tide
9. Mitigation: Ag, Forestry, Industry,
Commerce, & Residences
a. Agriculture
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Nitrogen Management
Minimum Tillage
Rice Production
Biomass Burning
Livestock
b. Forestry
i. Natural Gas
ii. Hydrogen
Storage
Fuel Cells
Reliability
Production
Distribution
a)
b)
c)
a)
b)
c)
d. Public Transport
e. Alternative Fuels
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Physical Methods
Chemical Methods
Oxy-Fuel Plants
Concentrating CO2
CO2 Transport
i. Hydroelectric
ii. Wind
iii. Solar
7. Mitigation Strategies:
Transportation
a. Rehabilitation
b. Energy Conservation
c. Light-Duty Vehicles
a)
b)
c)
d)
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
e. Nuclear Power Plants
f. Renewable Energy
e. Perspectives
Driving Conditions
Taxes
Consumer Preferences
Diesel-Powered Vehicles
Agreements with Manufacturers
Capture, Concentrate, Transport
ii. CO2 Storage
c. Salinity
d. Acid-Base
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Burning
Sugar to Ethanol
Starch to Ethanol
Cellulose to Ethanol
Biodiesel
i. Land Use Changes
ii. Carbon Sequestration
c. Industry
i. Motors
ii. Steam
iii. Industry Specific
iii. Electric & Hybrids
a)
b)
Metal Smelting
Cement Production
d. Commercial & Residential Sources
i.
–6–
Heating & Cooling
a)
b)
c)
d)
Thermal Leakage
Insulation
Windows & Doors
HVAC
a)
b)
c)
d)
Incandescents
Fluorescents
LEDs
HIDs
a)
b)
Refrigerators
TVs
a)
b)
ii. Hot Water
iii. Lighting
c)
iii. Decisions under Uncertainty
a)
iv. Appliances
v. Inner Space
b)
e. Geoengineering
i.
Global Dimming
a)
b)
c)
Sunshades
SO2
Cloud Seeding
c)
ii. Fertilizing Oceans
10. Economics of Climate Change
a. Market Forces: Supply vs. Demand
i.
a)
b)
c)
d)
Market
Free Market
Controlled Market
Market Demand
Market Supply
Equilibrium Price
Market Forces
Taxes
Tax Reductions
Price Floors
Price Ceilings
Permits
Regulations
a)
b)
National Interests
Monopolies or Cartels
1) Utilities & Natural Monopolies
2) Electric Power Utilities
3) Deregulation
Free Goods & Services
1) Invisible Hand
2) Externalities
3) Tragedy of the Commons
4) Atmospheric Pollution
Lack of Information
1) Loss of Earth Observing Satellites
2) Diminishing Research Funds
Multigenerational Time Scales
i. Nordhaus vs. Stern
ii. Appropriate Policies
11. International Agreements & Politics
a. International Cooperation
i.
d)
e)
Treaties vs. Agreements
Approval
a)
b)
Language
Compliance
a)
b)
c)
Armed Conflict
Trade
Prestige
b. Past Experiences
i.
Fishing Rights
a)
b)
c)
Territorial Waters
Whales
Tuna
a)
b)
Framework
Results
ii. Montreal Protocol
c. Kyoto Protocol
i. History
ii. Framework
iii. Current Situation
Accuracy
a)
b)
a)
b)
iii. Enforcement
b. Cost vs. Benefit Analysis
i.
Enactment
ii. Interpretation
iii. Failure of Market Forces
c)
Fairness
Pareto Optimality
Game Theory
Nash Equilibrium
c. Economic Models
ii. Governmental Policies
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
Technological Change
1) Externalities
2) Incentives for Innovation
3) Patents & Copyrights
4) DOE Cost/Benefit of Research
Discount Rate
1) Impatience Principle
2) Marginal Productivity of Capital
3) Opportunity Cost of Capital
4) Impact of Discount Rate
Intergenerational Equity
1) Endowments
2) Natural Resources
3) Survey of Economists
iv. Distributional Issues
Definitions
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
Aethetic & Cultural Values
1) Revealed Perference Techniques
2) Stated Preference Techniques
Human Welfare
1) Value of Statistical Life
2) Quality of Life
3) Time = Money
Risk Avoidance
Reference Class Forecasting
Incentives for Objectivity
a)
b)
ii. Intangible Benefits
–7–
Participants
Compliance
c)
Effects
d. Bali, beyond Kyoto
e. Players
i.
Environmental Movement
a)
b)
Death of Environmentalism
Maturation
ii. Relevant Industries
iii. National Security
12. Cultural Factors
a. Public Opinion
i. Polls
ii. Public Relation Efforts
b. Two Cultures: S. P. Snow
c. Rise and Fall of Civilizations
i. Jared Diamond
ii. Food & Development of Agriculture
iii. Hierarchical Societies
d. Religion
i. Apocalypse
ii. Good Stewardship
iii. Ancestors
e. Views of the Future
i.
Financial Security
a)
b)
c)
Investments
Savings
Pensions
ii. Quality of Life
iii. Risk
f. Sources of Optimism
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Human Population Growth Abates
Global Education Levels Increase
Technology Advances
Public Support Grows
Everybody Talks about Weather
–8–