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CBA Guatemala Country Programme Strategy Abstract Climate Change Projections for Guatemala Climate change will have severe impacts on the ecosystems and communities of Western Guatemala, leading to cascading and interrelated impacts on livelihoods, biodiversity, and socioeconomic development in the region. Western Guatemala is a mountainous and biodiverse region with large indigenous populations and high levels of poverty. Climate change projections include long term increases in temperature and decreases in average precipitation, as well as increases in inter-annual climate variability and extreme events. Furthermore, long-term changes to temperature and precipitation will increase the vulnerability of communities to increasingly intense of extreme events, as the ecosystems which buffer communities against these extreme events will become increasingly stressed by changing climate regimes. Climate change projections for Guatemala include declining rainfall and increasing temperatures, as well as increasing intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability. Hurricanes are also projected to increase in intensity. The IPCC AR4 estimates temperature increases by the end of the 21st century are estimated to be around 3°C, with greater magnitudes for highland regions such Western Guatemala. Temperature increases are expected to be concentrated in the main rainy season. Precipitation is projected to decline overall, with significantly less rainfall falling outside of the rainy season, and with increasing risks of long dry spells during the rainy season. Increasing sea-surface temperatures in surrounding oceans are also projected to increase the intensity of hurricanes affecting the region. These impacts will threaten natural ecosystems Climate change impacts on Guatemala will be as well as progress toward the Millennium superimposed on existing patterns of variability, Development targets in this region. The CBA project in Guatemala will build community-level particularly the El Nino Southern Oscillation. capacity to adapt to climate change by integrating climate change risk management practices into community management of agro-ecosystems, forest ecosystems, and river basins. CBA in Guatemala will partner with IUCN, and adopt an integrated area-based watershed management approach – working with communities to collaboratively manage landscape-level ecological processes to reduce climate change risks. CBA projects will be developed in different eco-regions within the Suchaite and Naranjo river basins, and will be designed to ensure complimentarity between upstream and downstream interventions. Within this framework, CBA projects will focus on integrating climate change risk management into activities within the water and agriculture sectors. Potential project typologies could include: Reforestation, agroforestry, and capacity building for improved agricultural practices to reduce climate change-driven erosion, flood, and landslide risks. Capacity building of local communities for the integration of climate change risk management into coastal ecosystem management. Integration of climate change risk management into watershed-level ecosystem management institutions, including environmental service markets. CBA projects will be focused in the western part of Guatemala, in the basins of the Suchiate and Naranjo rivers which are limited with Mexico.