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Delegation
The Negative should get delegation counterplans
First is offense
1. Education – agent debates are key policy questions -- certain agents are better suited for
particular policies. Specifically on immigration policy, all our 1nc ev proves
That’s a pre-requisite for effective political action and education.
Kerwin ‘94 Cornelius M., Provost, American University, (Rulemaking: How Government Agencies Write Law and Make Policy) p.
preface
Rulemaking is the single most important function performed by agencies of government. Some readers may find
this a surprising, if not outrageous, assertion. But consider the breadth and depth of influence that rulemaking has on our
lives. Rulemaking refines, and in some instances defines, the mission of every government agency. In so doing it provides
direction and content for budgeting, program implementation, p rocurement, personnel management, dispute resolution, and other important
government activities. Rules provide specific, authoritative statements of the obligations the government has assumed and the benefits it must
provide. It is to rules, not statutes or other containers of the law, that we turn most often for an understanding of what is
expected of us and what we can expect from government. As a result, intense political activity surrounds the
contemporary rulemaking process, and effective political action in America is no longer possible without serious
attention to rulemaking.
Econ
All major indicators point to sustained and robust growth.
Nin-Hai Tseng, reporter for Fortune, “Four reasons for optimism in the 2011 economy,” 12/30/2010,
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/30/four-reasons-for-optimism-in-the-2011-economy/
There are real signs that the economic recovery will gain strength next year, but that doesn't change the fact
that most Americans still won't feel it.
It was around this time last year when it seemed like the U.S. economy was steering into better days. Businesses were investing more on equipment and
software and consumer spending was stable. Exports rose at a healthy pace. And after aggressively reducing goods in stores and warehouses amid one of
the deepest recessions in recent American history, companies were starting to restock – helping boost GDP during the last quarter of 2009 to a
breakneck pace of 5.7%, the economy's largest growth spurt in six years.
Such indicators suggested a brighter outlook, but somehow the momentum abruptly faded as debt problems in parts of Europe escalated and
government stimulus spending faded. By mid 2010, many who had thought a real recovery was finally under way were left mystified. They worried the
economy might slip back into a recession.
As the New Year approaches, the latest economic indicators have analysts suggesting – again – that things will get
better in 2011. But will the outcome really be any different this time around?
A few indicators, according to Lexington, Mass.-based economic forecasting firm IHS Global Insight, have helped build the case that
things will improve in the coming year:
Working more hours
For one, the average workweek for all employees on private non-farm payrolls was 34.3 hours in November, a modest uptick from the 33.9 hours worked
during the same time last year. An increase in worker hours is significant, especially since many employers dramatically
cut hours during the recession that started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. They'll usually use their existing
workers for the maximum hours they can work before hiring new people. So a rise in the average workweek
might suggest that sustained job growth is in the horizon.
Corporate spending on the rise
Just when it seemed like companies buying up computers, communications gear and the like would slow after
seeing spikes during various periods throughout the year, business investment in capital equipment rebounded
in November. Bookings climbed 2.6% after a 3.6% decline in October -- a decline that was smaller than previously estimated, according to the US
Commerce Department. If the trend continues into 2011, it could be a positive contributor to US growth.
Dollars on the move
Real money supply – the amount of money in circulation measured in traveler's checks, savings deposits, currency, money market accounts and
the like – has increased, rising by 2% this year compared to the previous year.
Nigel Gault, US Chief Economist with IHS, acknowledges that while the development isn't necessarily a huge move, it nevertheless indicates that
activity in the private sector is picking up a bit. After all, the more transactions that happen, the more financing is needed and therefore
the more money there is in circulation. And real money supply last year was declining, so the fact that it has reversed is a
positive sign.
Wealth in stocks
Another hopeful sign is that stock
prices have surged. The S&P 500 last week completed its recovery from the sixmonth plunge that followed Lehman Brothers' collapse in September 2008, extending its rally up 85% since its low in March 2009. The index is
expected to end 2011 at 1,374 -- up more than 9% from today's levels, according to Bloomberg, citing the average forecast of 11 strategists at Wall Street's
biggest banks. And as The Wall Street Journal reported recently, expectations are that 2011 could be the year that
very large multibillion-dollar initial public offerings return, following a year in which most offerings raised less
than $200 million.
"I certainly don't want to get too carried away in optimism," says Gault, who remains cautious over the prospects of the country's economic growth.
Gault believes the recovery through 2011 will be vastly different from the current year driven mostly by companies
restocking inventory -- it will be more genuine. Judging by today's positive economic indicators, growth will likely be driven by
final sales as opposed to inventory building. Gault forecasts that growth could rise around 3.3% next year, markedly higher
than the expected 2.9% annual growth for 2010.
Specifically true in the case of the aff – an upsurge in business confidence and hiring would be
too hot, collapsing the economy.
Mark Gongloff, Wall Street Journal, “Investors' Forecast: Sunny With Chance of Overheating,” 1/2/2011,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703384504576055950354533470.html
The added stimulus from the Fed, this view goes, drove up prices that were already rising on the strength of the U.S.
economy rebounding from its summer doldrums and robust growth in emerging economies. The extension of income-tax cuts by
Congress at the tail end of 2010 adds to the worries of an overheated economy.
Evidence of too-hot growth showed up in bond yields and commodity prices as 2010 wore on. Rather than falling as
the Fed hoped, bond yields surged in the fall, driving up financing costs for businesses and home buyers. Commodity
prices jumped, too: Oil rose 15% in 2010, copper 33%, soybeans 34% and corn 52%.
So far those increases haven't shown up much in consumer prices, but prices could surge if companies grow
confident they can pass higher costs on to customers. Meanwhile, faster growth could force companies, which cut staffs
during the downturn, to hire in greater numbers. A tighter labor market, along with higher commodity
prices, would start to drive wages higher, generating broader inflationary pressures—a dreaded
wage-price spiral.
Under normal circumstances, the Fed would open its well-worn anti-inflation playbook and raise interest rates. But quickly rising prices would
put the Fed in the awkward position of reversing itself and effectively admitting its quantitative easing, known as QE, effort was a
mistake. "Always the most difficult thing to do as a trader is to admit you're wrong and then do the opposite of what you were doing," said Howard
Simons, bond strategist at Bianco Research in Chicago. "We're asking the Fed, who came up with the idea that we needed QE, to admit they were wrong
and start tightening credit."
Too-hot growth could set off a chain reaction with bond investors suffering big losses, the housing market
diving as mortgage rates jump and commodity prices rising even higher. Stocks could temporarily thrive under those
conditions: Many U.S. companies benefit when commodity prices rise, and exporters could find their products cheaper globally if, as likely, the dollar
suffers. Stocks wouldn't do well for long, though, because interest rates would jump, raising borrowing costs throughout the
economy and slamming the brakes on growth.
The medicine could be worse than the disease. The Fed would need to restore its inflation-fighting
credentials by raising interest rates, which could further hurt bonds and would likely end the rallies in stocks
and commodities. The dollar could strengthen, hurting exports.
Warming
SO2 and NO2 are holding off global warming now
Warren`8 (Matthew, Enviromental Writer for the Australian, Temperatures tipped to pause for a decade,
May 2, 2008 Friday, Lexis)
RISING global temperatures may stall for the next decade, with some scientists now believing the natural
response of ocean currents will temporarily offset the effects of climate change. German climate scientists say
the temperature pause is the result of the slowing of the global currents that transport heat around the planet.
Their research, in the latest edition of the journal Nature, is an attempt to more accurately forecast global
temperature changes and variations on a shorter time scale. Climate modellers from the Leibniz Institute for
Marine Sciences and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology have stressed they do not directly contradict the
projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which last year estimated temperature
increases of about 0.2C a decade over the next 20 years. The research suggests a cooling diversion for the next
15 to 20 years after which there is likely to be accelerated temperature increases as global warming overrides
the cooling effect. ``In the short term, you can see changes in the global mean temperature that you might not
expect given the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,'' Noel Keenlyside from the Leibniz
Institute of Marine Sciences told the BBC. ``In the long term, radiative forcing dominates. But it's important
for policymakers to realise the pattern.'' The latest research illustrates the complexity and uncertainty in trying
to model the specific behaviour of the oceans. Research released by the CSIRO in January predicted an
acceleration, rather than a slowing, of the earth's currents caused by increased pollution in the northern
hemisphere. CSIRO's Wenju Cai and Tim Cowan found that these pollutants or aerosols cool the ocean surface
in the northern hemisphere, causing an imbalance that is redressed by an acceleration of these global currents.
This effect is called global dimming. Dr Cai said his theory was not completely at odds with the latest German
research, as both would result in relative cooling across the northern hemisphere. ``Aerosols are mitigating the
warming -- without them we could have warmed more, and there is a net cooling effect from aerosols and that
is going to intensify the gulf stream,'' he said. Other scientists have questioned the research, saying the slowing
of the currents may be caused by changes in the saltiness of ocean waters.
Reducing emissions cuts SO2 and NO2 – results in s much more warming
EDIE`99 Environmental Data Interactive Exchange 6/99
http://www.edie.net/news/news_story.asp?id=1404
"In the atmosphere, sulphur dioxide gas emitted by burning coal and oil is converted into sulphate aerosols
that enhance the reflection of solar radiation, thereby tending to cool Earth's surface," said Michael
Schlesinger, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois. "In recent studies, we found that decreasing
the sulphur dioxide emissions led to significant regional warming in North America, Europe and Asia." The
studies were based on provisional greenhouse-gas and sulphur dioxide emissions developed by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC is producing a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios,
in part as background for the IPCC Third Assessment Report scheduled to be completed in 2001. In the special
report there are four scenario families for the future emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphur dioxide. To
explore the potential effects, Schlesinger and colleagues first used a simple climate/ocean model to calculate
the change in global-mean surface temperature for the sulphur dioxide emissions of the four Special Report
scenarios, as well as for the non-interventionist IS92a scenario of the IPCC Second Assessment Report. "These
global-mean temperatures were then used to scale the geographical distributions of temperature change
simulated by our atmospheric general circulation/mixed-layer-ocean model for a tenfold increase in presentday sulphur dioxide emissions, both individually and jointly from six geographical regions," Schlesinger said.
The increasing sulphur dioxide emissions of the IS92a scenario result in a cooling contribution that helps to
offset some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming, Schlesinger said, but the decreasing sulphur dioxide
emissions of the four SRES scenarios result in the opposite: a significant warming of portions of North
America, Europe and the North Atlantic, and Siberia. "Thus it appears that mitigation of the acid-rain problem
by future reductions in sulphur dioxide emissions exacerbates the greenhouse-warming problem by enhancing
the warming in and near the regions where the sulphur dioxide emissions are reduced," Schlesinger said.
SO2 NO2 solves warming—directly cancels out greenhouse gases and outweighs their internal
link
Hausfather, 8 - Zeke, Regular Contributor to the Yale Forum on Climate Change, June 24th, "COMMON
CLIMATE
MISCONCEPTIONS Why Reducing Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Complicates Efforts to Moderate Climate
Change" The Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media,
http://yaleclimatemediaforum.org/ccm/0608_sulphate_aerosol_emissions.htm
With all the attention surrounding carbon dioxide these days, it is easy to forget that there are a number of
other important natural and human-driven factors ("forcings" in climate circles) that influence Earth's climate.
Among the most important of these are sulfate aerosols, microscopic particles smaller than a millionth of a
meter suspended in the air. Sulfate aerosols are produced primarily from sulphur dioxide (SO2) emitted during
the combustion of fossil fuels. Along with ozone precursors, they are primary causes of acid rain and of lung
irritation and ground-level haze or smog in polluted areas. Sulfate aerosols also have a strong cooling effect on
Earth, both through their ability to scatter incoming light and because of their propensity to increase cloud
formation and reflectivity. Among the most significant changes in climate change modeling between the 2001
IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 was a revision of the
expected trajectory of human-induced sulfate aerosol emissions. In the earlier report, scientists assumed that
aerosols would increase in rough proportional to economic growth. The authors of the 2007 report realized
that emissions of aerosols, which have direct and immediate negative health effects to those in the area
surrounding their emission, will likely be targeted for reductions as countries like China and India become
wealthier. This emissions reduction would mirror a similar process that occurred in Europe and the United
States. Sulfate aerosols are the most significant substance in a category of aerosols tending to help cool the
climate. Aerosols decrease radiative forcing in two ways: through direct aerosol effects as a result of an
increased scattering and absorption of incoming solar radiation, and through indirect effects resulting from
their ability to serve as cloud condensation nuclei. An increased number of cloud condensation nuclei have a
number of different effects: they increase the reflectivity of clouds by making them denser and giving them
higher liquid water content, they increase the height of clouds, and they increase cloud lifetime. Figure One,
below, shows the major climate forcings over the past 120 years. The major positive forcings include CO2 at
1.66 watts per meter squared (W m-2), methane (CH4) at 0.46 W m-2, nitrous oxide (N2O) at 0.16 W m-2, and
various halocarbons (CFCs, HCFCs, etc.) at 0.34 W m-2. Aerosol direct effects account for -0.5 ± 0.4 W m-2
negative forcing, with SO2 comprising -0.4 W m-2. Indirect effects are around -0.7 W m-2, with a large
uncertainty range of -1.8 to -0.3 W m-2. Aerosols are the primary reason why Earth is still at around 380 parts
per million CO2-equivilent (CO2e), rather than the 460 ppm CO2e projected if all the positive forcings were
added together. Conveniently enough, aerosols pretty much cancel out the warming from all the non-C02
greenhouse gases. 0608_ccm_Fig1.jpg - 31186 Bytes Figure One. Radiative forcing of major climate factors
over the past 123 years. Figure from Hansen et al 2005. There are a number of different projections for sulfate
aerosol emissions over the next century based on assumptions regarding the rate of economic growth,
population growth, and technological development. Figure Two, below, shows an aggregation of all models of
anthropogenic sulfate emissions used in the most recent IPCC report. Specific scenarios vary widely, but the
median value across all models results by the year 2100 in sulfate aerosol emissions of 35 million metric tons,
roughly one half of current emissions. 0608_ccm_Fig2.jpg - 55341 Bytes Figure Two. Projections of future
aerosol emissions for SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) and post-SRES scenarios. Figure from the
third working group of the latest IPCC report. A reduction of anthropogenic SO2 of around 50 percent
worldwide over the next century, as projected in the most recent IPCC report, would result in a significant
warming effect on the global climate. Sulfates are extremely short-lived particles, and emission reductions
would have immediate effects on radiative forcing. A 50 percent reduction in sulfate aerosol emissions would
reduce by half their current radiative forcing of -0.83 W m-2. This change in forcings would increase global
temperatures by roughly 0.36 degrees C (.64 F) relative to a scenario where aerosol emissions remain constant.
Figure three below shows the practical implications of a reduction in aerosols in the next century. If current
greenhouse gas concentrations remain constant at current levels, scientists project about 1.34 degrees C (2.41
F) warming relative to pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the century (the world has already warmed
0.74 degrees C (1.33 F) in the past century, and 0.60 degrees C (1.08F) additional warming is in the pipeline as
a result of Earth's thermal inertia). A reduction of anthropogenic atmospheric sulfate aerosols by 50 percent
means that 1.34 degrees C (2.41 F) warming suddenly becomes 1.70 degrees C (3.06 F). Constant 2005 GHG
Concentrations Constant SO2 1.34 degrees C (2.41 F) Reduced SO2
1.70 degrees C (3.06 F) Figure Three.
Based on a simple calculation of radiative forcings of the current atmospheric concentration of greenhouse
gases at equilibrium, assuming a climate sensitivity of roughly 0.87 degrees K. Also assuming that
anthropogenic SO2 represent only 72 percent of total atmospheric SO2 flux and that the indirect aerosol effects
of SO2 account for around 62 percent of total indirect aerosol forcing, or -0.43 W m-2
Reducing SO2 NO2 causes worse warming in the short term—turns the case
Stevens, 91—William, Staff Writer for th e New York Times, "Not Using Fossil Fuels Could Add to Warming"
Feb 7, 1991,
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CE7DA1430F934A35751C0A967958260&sec=&spon=&
pagewanted=2
Efforts to head off a predicted global warming by reducing the burning of fossil fuels, as is widely being urged,
could actually worsen the warming in the short run, scientists say. Fossil fuels like coal and oil emit carbon
dioxide when they are burned, and the carbon dioxide traps heat in the Earth's atmosphere much like a
greenhouse does. Climatologists predict that if the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases like
methane and chlorofluorocarbons continues at current rates, the average surface temperature of the Earth will
rise 2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit in the next century, causing widespread ecological, agricultural and social
damage. But in a less-noticed phenomenon, the burning of fossil fuels also emits sulfur dioxide particles, which
scientists refer to as aerosols. These reflect sunlight, cooling the Earth and partly offsetting whatever warming
may be taking place. A reduction in the burning of fossil fuels would reduce this cooling effect. The resulting
rise in temperature could more than compensate for the cooling that would be achieved by the accompanying
reduction in carbon dioxide in the next 10 to 30 years, according to a study reported in today's issue of the
British journal Nature by Dr. T. M. L. Wigley, a climatologist at the University of East Anglia in England.
Warming Could Be More Intense This means that global warming could be more intense than expected for up
to three decades, Dr. Wigley found, after which the reduction in burning fossil fuels would begin to bring about
a global cooling. The reason for the lag is that the effect of carbon dioxide reductions would be felt only over
decades, since that is how long it takes them to work their way through the ocean-atmosphere climate system.
By contrast, the effect of atmospheric sulfur dioxide particles is felt almost immediately and dies away rapidly
once emissions stop. "If you instantly stopped burning fossil fuels, then the aerosols would fall out in a couple
of days," said Dr. James E. Hansen, a climatologist at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.
"The greenhouse gases stay there for 100 years, so you'd actually increase the heating" in the short term. "But
in the long run, you'd decrease the temperature and the heating."