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General Principles Suggested Actions National / Project Examples Comments DK: National climate scenarios have just recently been developed and is followed by all mapping in Denmark. Guidance for usage is under development. FI: www.environment.fi/floods > Flood risk management planning FI: Doctoral dissertation: Estimation of Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Floods in Finland (Veijalainen 2012) PFRA – Requirement for reporting of data on past floods General : o 1. Start adapting flood risk management to potential climate change as soon as possible, when information is robust enough, since full certainty will never be the case. Follow the guiding principles set out for the WFD PFRA : 2. Understand and anticipate as far as possible climate change impact on flood patterns A. Understand and anticipate as far as possible climate change impact on floods Monitor changes to flood patterns by gathering comprehensive information on past floods - consider development of a “past floods database at European level” or list of national databases. Develop a structure for gathering information on past and new floods, set a standards for information on past floods to ensure their comparability. Improve trends detection, using the information gathered over the implementation cycles detecting trends of changing flood patterns NO: Flood data base under development IE: www.floodmaps.ie IE: Flood data collection guidance and proforma BE (wallonie): Flood data base under development, no PFRA done CZ: Research project on climate change (incl. topic) of floods 2007-2011. CZ: Flood database under development CZ: Historical floods – Book (Brázdil et al. 2005), PhD thessis (Elleder, 2010), CHMI Proceedings (2012) EEA Database on past floods GMES Network 3. Use best available information and data B. Use best available information Anticipate and improve readily available information Use monitoring under WFD on flows, physical modifications, pressures and impacts, etc. Consider what is "available and readily derivable information" today and what is foreseen to be "available and readily derivable information" in 2011, 2018, etc. (taking into account for instance the forthcoming 5th IPCC AR). Exchange information with the insurance industry, as well as land use and spatial planners Make the best use of review cycles of PFRA Continue further best practice exchange on how to incorporate climate change information in the PFRA at European level 4. Homogenize time series, and remove bias as far as possible. C. Homogenize time series, and remove bias as far as possible Remove bias from time series and use time series that are as long as possible Gain information on paleofloods and pre-instrumental era floods to better estimate flood hazard of low probability. 5. Understand and anticipate as far as possible changed exposure, vulnerability, and flood risk due to climate change, for establishing areas of potential significant floodrisk. D. Understand and anticipate as far as possible changed vulnerability and flood risk due to climate change o Take climate change into account when assessing the effectiveness of existing manmade flood defence structures o Be transparent in the use of “worst case” scenarios – take latest available climate change information into DK: Sea level rise has been taken into consideration in the PFRA in the first cycle. IE: Predictive PFRA analysis being rerun taking into account sea level rise CZ: project on developing reference scenarios for water management planning under way. o consideration Think of developing reference scenario to ensure comparability of results E. Make sure best available information (see above under Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment) is taken into account when flood scenarios are reviewed every 6 years. Mapping : 6. When identifying the different flood scenarios, incorporate information on climate change if appropriate 7. Present uncertainties surrounding climate change in maps transparently if appropriate 8. Use the 6-year review of flood maps to incorporate climate change information F. Present uncertainty related to climate change in a transparent manner in flood maps if appropriate IE: Flood maps (Art. 6) to include two future scenarios BE: (Wallonie) : Flood maps using climate change scenario, using Q100+30%, as a result of Interreg project AMICE DK: rise in sea level is taken into consideration and will include 3 future climate scenarios. DK: a new law requires a complete (blue spot) mapping of Denmark that takes 2-3 climate scenarios into consideration (sea level rise only) NO: Based on results from the NVE report 5/2011 “Hydrological projections for floods in Norway under a future climate”, flood inundation maps now show a 200-year flood in 2100. Example from Naustdal IE: Method for broad-scale, indicative uncertainty assessment FI: Laser scanning project, a new national elevation model FI: Sea level scenarios and flood risks on the Finnish coast FI: Research need: Develop the joint probability methods (inc. river ice) http://www.amice-project.eu/ Flood risk management plans 9. Incorporate climate change in setting flood risk management objectives G. Indicate how climate change plays a role in setting flood risk management objectives. 10. Ensure coordination at catchment level, also respecting the Directive’s coordination requirements at RBD/unit of management level IE: Appraisal and prioritisation of FRM measures includes objectives (criteria) on adaptability of measures to future flood risk NO: Two pilot plans made: 1) Tana River (cross-border watershed with Finland) and 2) Melhus municipality 11. Include climate change scenarios in on-going initiatives and in planning processes o o o o o Include climate change related flood risk changes in on-going education initiatives to improve flood risk awareness and preparedness. Be clear and honest in communicating the uncertainties of climate scenarios and derived flood regime scenarios. Improve institutional awareness of potential climate change related impacts on flood risk, for instance ensure that authorities responsible for climate change adaptation and flood risk management coordinate with river basin management. Ensure all interested parties are involved in the consultation process for the Flood Risk Management Plans. Increase the resilience of civil protection and disaster management infrastructure in view of climate change. FI: MCDA in –FRMP (for example involving local stakeholders (p. 91-) and national FRMP-pilot) Measures : 12. Perform a climate check of flood risk measures 13. Favour options that are robust to the Consider occurrence of multiple hazards in flood risk management, example of increased incidents of ephemeral floods. Develop tool-boxes and examples of "no-regret" and "win-win" measures, and exchange this information across the EU. NO: Work done on “tool-boxes”, contact Bent Braskerud, NVE ([email protected]) NO: Testing of “green roofs” and “raingardens” in a cold climate. uncertainty in climate projections Take into account guidance and expertise on catchment approach and non-structural measures when investigating “better environmental options” according to Article 4.7 WFD. o Further development and exchange of good practices on adaptation measures related to flood management. Ensure land use / spatial planning is robust in view of climate change. Improve economic models to enable taking into account long-term costs and benefits in planning. Increased use of economic incentives, such as the cost of insurance being linked to flood risk of individual properties. a. Focus on pollution risk in flood prone zones b. Focus on non-structural measures and instruments when possible c. Focus on “no-regret" and "win-win" measures d. Focus on a mix of measures 14. Favour prevention through the catchment approach including the need for transboundary cooperation on prevention 15. Take account of a long term perspective in defining flood risk measures (e.g. with respect to land use, structural measures efficiency, protection of buildings, critical infrastructure, etc). e. Include long-term climate change scenarios in land-use planning f. Develop robust cost-benefit methods which enable taking into account longer term costs and benefits in view of climate change. g. Use economic incentives to influence land use [Link insurance] FI: Updating national recommendations for the minimum permissible building heights during year 2013 IE: CC partially provided for in National Guidelines on Spatial Planning NO: Same status as in IE BE: changes in the Insurance Law – natural disasters insurance included in the fire insurance : insurers take into account the flood risks maps 16. Assess other climate change adaptation (and even mitigation) measures on their impact on flood risks: h. Hydropower and flow regulation i. Link with water scarcity Review permits for impoundments (see WFD) to make sure possible climate change related flood risks can be mitigated Include information on exceptional floods giving rise to the use of Article 4.6 WFD, which is consistent and coherent with the information and measures included in FRMP. FI: Ilmava2-project. The existing permits for flow regulation will be assessed taking account the effects of Climate Change