Download THE ROLE OF LAND - SURFACE PROCESSES IN LOCAL, REGIONAL AND

THE ROLE OF LANDSURFACE PROCESSES IN
LOCAL, REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL WEATHER AND
CLIMATE
Professor Roger A. Pielke Sr.
Colorado State University and Duke University
NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center Seminar
December 15, 2004, Boulder, Colorado
Local Landscape Effects
From Davey, C.A., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2004: Microclimate
exposures of surface-based weather stations - implications
for the assessment of long-term temperature trends. Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc., submitted.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-274.pdf
Hanamean, J.R. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., C.L. Castro, D.S. Ojima,
B.C. Reed, and Z. Gao, 2003: Vegetation impacts on
maximum and minimum temperatures in northeast
Colorado. Meteorological Applications, 10, 203-215.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-254.pdf
Maximum-minimum temperature sensor (MMTS) installation near
Lindon, Colorado.
MMTS installation near John Martin Reservoir, Colorado.
Map of study region, showing all surveyed COOP sites. The USHCN sites
are indicated by stars.
The following photos are for HCN sites.
Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the
NWS COOP station at Eads, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor,
while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the temperature
sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.
Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of
the NWS COOP station at Holly, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature
sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the
temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.
Photographs of the temperature sensor
NWS COOP station near Rocky Ford,
temperature sensor, while panels b)-e)
from the temperature sensor looking N,
Cotton Region Shelter)
exposure
Colorado.
illustrate
E, S, and
characteristics for the
Panel a) shows the
the exposures viewed
W, respectively. (CRS-
Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the
NWS COOP station at Trinidad, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature
sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the
sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.
Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the
NWS COOP station at Cheyenne Wells, CO. Panel a) shows the
temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed
from the sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.
Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the
NWS COOP station at Lamar, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor,
while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the sensor
looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.
Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the
NWS COOP station at Wray, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor,
while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the sensor
looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.
Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the
NWS COOP station at Las Animas, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature
sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the
sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.
Fort Morgan site showing images of the cardinal directions from the
sensor (from Hanamean et al. 2003)
Courtesy of Karen O’Brien
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation
and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys.,
39, 151-177.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation
and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys.,
39, 151-177.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
SURFACE HEAT CHANGES
T ≠ Surface Heat
CpT + Lq = Surface Heat
e.g., At 1000 mb, a decrease of the dewpoint
temperature
from
24°C
to
23°C,
corresponds to a change in heat of a
temperature decrease of 2.5°C.
This
means,
for
example,
the
temperature could increase by 1°C, but if
the dewpoint temperature decreased by
1°C, there is surface cooling!
From: Pielke, R.A. Sr., C. Davey, and J. Morgan, 2004: Assessing
"global warming" with surface heat content. Eos, 85, No. 21,
210-211.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-290.pdf
From: Segal, M., R. Avissar, M.C. McCumber, and R.A. Pielke, 1988: Evaluation of
vegetation effects on the generation and modification of mesoscale circulations.
J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2268-2292.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-84.pdf
Alteration of Thermodynamic Profile
Associated with Land-Use Change
From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and
soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177.
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation
and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys.,
39, 151-177.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation
and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys.,
39, 151-177.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
From: Segal, M., J.H. Cramer,
R.A. Pielke, J.R. Garratt, and P.
Hildebrand, 1991: Observational
evaluation of the snow-breeze.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 412-424.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-113.pdf
From: Segal, M., J.H. Cramer,
R.A. Pielke, J.R. Garratt, and P.
Hildebrand, 1991: Observational
evaluation of the snow-breeze.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 412-424.
htt://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-113.pdf
From: Segal, M., J.H. Cramer, R.A. Pielke, J.R. Garratt, and P. Hildebrand,
1991: Observational evaluation of the snow-breeze. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119,
412-424.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-113.pdf
From: Segal, M., J.H. Cramer,
R.A. Pielke, J.R. Garratt, and P.
Hildebrand, 1991: Observational
evaluation of the snow-breeze.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 412-424.
http:/blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-113.pdf
Regional Effects
Pielke, R.A., T.J. Lee, J.H. Copeland, J.L. Eastman, C.L.
Ziegler, and C.A. Finley, 1997: Use of USGS-provided data
to improve weather and climate simulations. Ecological
Applications, 7, 3-21.
Eastman, J.L., M.B. Coughenour, and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2001:
The effects of CO2 and landscape change using a coupled
plant and meteorological model. Global Change Biology, 7,
797-815.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-229.pdf
Effect of Land-Use Change on Deep
Cumulonimbus Convection
Pielke, R.A., T.J. Lee, J.H. Copeland, J.L. Eastman, C.L. Ziegler, and C.A. Finley, 1997: Use of
USGS-provided data to improve weather and climate simulations. Ecological Applications, 7, 3-21.
Modeling domain and natural vegetation distribution. Classes represent:
1-tundra; 2-subalpine; 3-temperate conifer; 4-temperate deciduous; 5temperate xeromorphic; 6-temperate coniferous xeromorphic; 7-savanna
and deciduous; 8-C3 shortgrass 9- C4 tall grass; 10- temperate arid shrub;
11- spring wheat/small grass; 12-small grains; 13-winter wheat; 14-corn;
15-irrigrated crop; 16-deciduous forest crop; 17-subtropical mixed forest;
and 18-grassland and grain. From Eastman et al. (2001).
Modeling domain and current vegetation distribution. Classes represent: 1tundra; 2-subalpine; 3-temperate conifer; 4-temperate deciduous; 5temperate xeromorphic; 6-temperate coniferous xeromorphic; 7-savanna
and deciduous; 8-C3 shortgrass 9- C4 tall grass; 10- temperate arid shrub;
11- spring wheat/small grass; 12-small grains; 13-winter wheat; 14-corn;
15-irrigrated crop; 16-deciduous forest crop; 17-subtropical mixed forest;
and 18-grassland and grain. From Eastman et al. (2001).
From Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2002: Overlooked issues in the U.S. National
Climate and IPCC assessments. Climatic Change, 52, 1-11.
The following slides are from: Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke
Sr., and L.T. Steyaert, 2003: Crop freezes and land-use
change. Nature, 426, 29-30.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-277.pdf
And
Marshall, C.H., R.A. Pielke Sr., and L.T. Steyaert, 2004: Has
the conversion of natural wetlands to agricultural land
increased the incidence and severity of damaging freezes
in south Florida? Mon. Wea. Rev., submitted.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-281.pdf
1997
Min T
1997
duration
Max and Min
Temp Trends
1973
1989
1994
Two-month average of the
surface latent heat flux (W
m-2)
from
the
model
simulations of July and
August 1994 with pre1900s land cover (top),
1994 land use (middle),
and the difference field for
the two (bottom; 1994
minus pre-1900s case).
1989
Global Effects
From Pielke Sr., R.A., G. Marland, R.A. Betts, T.N. Chase, J.L.
Eastman, J.O. Niles, D. Niyogi, and S. Running, 2002: The
influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the
climate system- relevance to climate change policy beyond the
radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special
Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-258.pdf
Examples of land-use
change from (a) 1700,
(b) 1900, (c) 1970, and
(d) 1990. The humandisturbed landscape
includes intensive
cropland (red) and
marginal cropland used
for grazing (pink). Other
landscape includes
tropical evergreen forest
and deciduous forest
(dark green), savannah
(light green), grassland
and steppe (yellow),
open shrubland
(maroon), temperate
deciduous forest (blue),
temperate needleleaf
evergreen forest (light
yellow) and hot desert
(orange). Note the
expansion of cropland
and grazed land between
1700 and 1900.
(Reproduced with
permission from Klein
Goldewijk 2001.)
http://thunder.nsstc.nasa.gov/images/HRFC_AnnualFlashRate_cap.jpg
Vegetation classifications for
(a) natural vegetation and (b)
current vegetation in regions
where current and natural
vegetation differ (i.e.,
anthropogenically disturbed
regions in the current case).
From: Chase, T.N., R.A. Pielke,
T.G.F. Kittel, R.R. Nemani, and
S.W. Running, 2000:
Simulated impacts of historical
land cover changes on global
climate in northern winter.
Climate Dynamics, 16, 93-105.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-214.pdf
The ten-year
average absolutevalue change in
surface latent
turbulent heat flux
in W m-2 at the
locations where
land-use change
occurred for (a)
January, and (b)
July. (Adapted
from Chase et al.
2000.)
The ten-year
average
absolute-value
change in
surface sensible
heat flux in W
m-2 at the
locations where
land-use change
occurred for (c)
January, and
(d) July.
(Adapted from
Chase et al.
2000.)
The ten-year
average absolutevalue change in
surface latent
turbulent heat flux
in W m-2 worldwide
as a result of the
land-use changes
for (a) January,
and (b) July.
(Adapted from
Chase et al. 2000.)
The ten-year
average absolutevalue change in
sensible turbulent
heat flux in W m-2
worldwide as a
result of the landuse changes for
(c) January, and
(d) July. (Adapted
from Chase et al.
2000.)
Redistribution of Heat Due to the
Human Disturbance of the Earth’s
Climate System
Globally-Average Absolute Value of Sensible Heat
Plus Latent Heat
Only Where Land
Use Occurs
Teleconnections
Included
July
1.9 Watts m-2
January
0.7 Watts m-2
July
8.9 Watts m-2
January
9.5 Watts m-2
From: Chase, T.N., R.A. Pielke, T.G.F. Kittel, R.R. Nemani, and S.W.
Running, 2000: Simulated impacts of historical land cover changes on
global climate in northern winter. Climate Dynamics, 16, 93-105.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-214.pdf
The 200 hPa (current-natural) height difference. Contours at
20 m. From: Chase, T.N., R.A. Pielke, T.G.F. Kittel, R.R. Nemani,
and S.W. Running, 2000: Simulated impacts of historical land
cover changes on global climate in northern winter. Climate
Dynamics, 16, 93-105.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-214.pdf
“HOT TOWERS”
“As shown in the pioneering study by Riehl
and Malkus (1958) and by Riehl and
Simpson
(1979),
1500-5000
thunderstorms (which they refer to as ‘hot
towers’) are the conduit to transport this
heat, moisture, and wind energy to higher
latitudes. Since thunderstorms occur only
in a relatively small percentage of the area
of the tropics, a change in their spatial
patterns would be expected to have global
consequences.”
From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution
of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective
rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177.
Effect of the Spatial Redistribution of
Surface Heating (El Niño)
¾ El Niño has a major effect on weather thousands of kilometers
from the tropical Pacific Ocean (Shabbar et al. 1997).
¾ The presence of warm SSTs permit thunderstorms to occur which
otherwise would not have occurred.
¾ These thunderstorms export vast amounts of heat, moisture, and
kinetic energy to the middle and higher latitudes, which alter the
ridge and trough patterns associated with the polar jet stream
(Hou 1998).
¾ El Niños have such a major effect on weather due to their large
magnitude, long persistence, and spatial coherence (Wu and
Newell 1998).
¾ Tropical thunderstorms are referred to as “hot towers” and are the
conduit to higher latitudes as part of the Hadley circulations (Riehl
and Malkus 1958; Riehl and Simpson 1979).
¾ Most thunderstorms occur over tropical and midlatitude land
masses and in the warm season (Lyons 1999; Rosenfeld 2000).
Therefore, the earth’s climate system must also be sensitive to landuse change in those regions where thunderstorms occur.
El Niño Teleconnection Effect
Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO.
El Niño-Control
Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO
El Niño-Control
Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO
Global-Averaged Absolute Value Difference of
Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes Averaged for
12 Januaries: El Niño Teleconnection
Average Latent
Heat Flux
January
6.1 Watts m-2
Average Sensible
Heat Flux
January
2.4 Watts m-2
Global Water Cycle Metric
Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO.
Absolute Value of Globally-Averaged Change is 1.2 mm/day.
Global Water Cycle Metric
Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO.
Absolute Value of Globally-Averaged Change is 0.6 mm/day
A New Paradigm
Figure 1a: April 1 snowpack percent of average for the state of Colorado for years
1968 through 2002 (data provided by the Natural Resource Conservation Service,
USDA). From: Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A broader perspective on
climate change is needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
Figure 1b: Colorado statewide reservoir storage levels as a percent of average
for the end of the growing season (data provided by the Natural Resource
Conservation Service, USDA). From: Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A
broader perspective on climate change is needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
Figure 2: Maps of relative change in water reuse under (A) GCMsimulated climate change, (B) population and economic development,
and (C) GCM-simulated climate change and population and economic
development From: Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A broader
perspective on climate change is needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
Figure 3: 2050 global tropical cyclone loss sensitivities based on IPCC scenarios
and analyses. From: Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A broader
perspective on climate change is needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
Figure 4: Schematic of the relation of water resource vulnerability to the
spectrum of the environmental forcings and feedbacks (adapted from [3]). The
arrows denote nonlinear interactions between and within natural and human
forcings. From: Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A broader perspective
on climate change is needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
Drought Monitor Map
Resource Specific Impact Level
Negligible: Blue
Minor: Green
Moderate: Yellow
Major: Orange
Exceptional: Red
Classifications designed by Dr. Roger A. Pielke Sr. and Dr. Klaus Wolter
Resource Specific Impact Level
Examples from Larimer County
Negligible
Minor
Impacted Groups
Fort Collins Municipal Water
Grant Family Farms
Moderate
Major
Exceptional
Anheuser-Busch
Fort Collins Municipal Water
•
The drought has required careful management of supplies and
cooperation among diverse water users.
Moderate — record low streamflows in the Poudre Basin reduced the yield of
even senior rights,
— the City has several of the earliest rights in the basin so impact
was somewhat mitigated,
— low storage volumes in the CBT Project have impacted
allocations from that system for several years,
— low streamflows on the West Slope have impaired availability of
Windy Gap water,
— water conservation efforts were quite successful at reducing
demands allowing for more carryover storage,
— limited storage capacity has limited our ability to carry surplus
supplies over for future dry years,
— temporary exchanges with irrigation companies and use of their
storage vessels helped secure more supply,
— reduced supply has meant very little water available for rental
to the agricultural community,
— reduced revenues from surplus water rentals and reduced use
by treated water customers,
— increased expenses for acquisition of temporary supplemental
supplies.
Email correspondence from Beth Molenaar, Water Engineer, City
of Fort Collins, Water Resources Department.
Grant Family Farms
•
Major
The impact of the drought on our farm, and most around us, is Major
for the following reasons:
− The late June rains came too late for our short growing season.
Short season forage crops were planted or many fields not planted at
all this year. These rains were a significant help to dryland pastures
that were looking grim. Rains came too late for the dry land wheat
crop, however, they may recharge soil moisture for next year's crop.
The rain provided some relief to alfalfa crop but the amount of
precipitation is still short of what will produce a decent cutting
(approx. 6 inches).
− The rains did practically nothing to alleviate the hydrologic drought.
Little water was put in reservoirs in our area and did essentially
nothing for the drastically decreased water for irrigation wells.
− The supply of irrigation water was lengthened by reducing the
requirement and thus allowing the irrigation water to be conserved
for use later in the season. At the current rate of usage, irrigation
water is going to be short later in the summer season. Further good
rains could help with the extension of the irrigation water.
− It will take a good snowpack in the mountains to alleviate reservoir
and irrigation well storage. For agriculture, the hydrologic drought is
still severe.
Email correspondence from Lew Grant, Grant Family Farms,
7/22/04, Waverly, Colorado.
Anheuser-Busch, Fort Collins
Negligible
• We would rate the drought
impact to the brewery today
as Negligible since Windy
Gap has pumped and our
water needs are secure in
Horsetooth Lake.
Email correspondence from John Stier, Environmental
Affairs, Anheuser-Busch, St. Louis, MO.
From the National Research Council of the National Acadamies Report
on Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and
Addressing Uncertainties, 2004.
CONCLUSION
The Earth’s climate system and
human disturbance of the climate
system is more complicated and
multi-dimensional
than
commonly
assumed.
This may make skillful
prediction of the future climate
impossible!
There is a new direction emerging.
Kabat, P., M. Claussen, P.A. Dirmeyer, J.H.C. Gash, L. Bravo
de Guenni, M. Meybeck, R.A. Pielke Sr., C.J. Vorosmarty,
R.W.A. Hutjes, and S. Lutkemeier, Editors, 2004: Vegetation,
water, humans and the climate: A new perspective on an
interactive system. Global Change - The IGBP Series,
Springer, Berlin, Global Change - The IGBP Series, 566 pp.