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MOFA, ROK / ESCAP The 3rd Northeast Asia Energy Security Forum 17 December 2015, Seoul Cooperation on Decarbonizing Energy Supply in Northeast Asia Sh.Enkhbayar Ph.D. Senior Research Fellow Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA) 2 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Energy & GHG Emissions in NEA Energy Mix CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 3. Decarbonizing Energy Supply in NEA NEA INDCs The Carbon “Budget” for the 2-degree Target Phasing out coal in NEA 4. Conclusions 3 1. Introduction While the world’s climate has always varied naturally, the vast majority of scientists now believe that rising concentrations of “greenhouse gases (GHG)” in the Earth’s atmosphere resulting from economic and demographic growth since the industrial revolution are overriding this natural variability and leading to potentially irreversible climate change; Globally, the energy system-supply, transformation, delivery and use – is the dominant contributor to GHG emissions; Thus, energy and climate change need to be addressed simultaneously within long-term energy security issues. Scientists warn that the planet is warming faster than previously thought and we must limit the global mean temperature rise to 2 C from the pre-industrial level (GHG concentration in the atmosphere must be stabilized below 450 ppm), (IPCC); CO2 from energy represents almost 70% of global anthropogenic emissions (IEA); The global primary energy demand is expected to grow further by around 20% by 2030 from the 2013 level, whereas about 1.3 billion or 18% of the global population still have no access to electricity (IEA, 2015). As the IEA noted: “Given the long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gases at any level would require a large reduction of global CO2 emissions from current levels”; This presentation considers an option to replace coal with natural gas as a transitional step for NEA towards low-carbon energy supply. 4 2. Energy & GHG Emissions in NEA Energy Mix CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Fossil fuel dominates TPES in NEA 5 Energy Mix Breakdown by NEA countries, 2012 NEA Total: 4,384 Mtoe People's Rep. of China 67.9 Mongolia 66.5 Coal Oil DPR of Korea Natural gas 78.4 Nuclear Hydro Russian Federation 17.6 Biofuels/waste Geothermal/solar/wind Korea Renewa bles 8.4% 29.3 Japan 24.8 0% Share, % Fossil fuel 91.6% Source: IEA Fossil fuel Renewables TPES, Mtoe TPES, % 20% Japan 95.5 4.5 452 10.3 40% 60% 80% Russian Korea Federation 98.2 1.8 263 6.0 97.1 2.9 757 17.2 100% People's DPR of Mongolia Rep. of Korea China 84.2 96.2 89 15.8 3.8 11 14.1 3.9 2,894 0.3 0.1 66.1 CO2 Emissions by Sector in 2012 6 World NEA, total (6 countries) Total: 31,734.4 million tonnes of CO2 Total: 11,470.7 million tonnes of CO2 Energy Energy 8% 10% 11% 23% 47% Manufacturing and Construction Transport 27% 54% Manufacturing and Construction Transport 20% Other Source: IEA, 2014 Other NEA region was responsible for 37% of the global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in 2012; and energy accounted for more than half of total. 7 NEA CO2 Emissions by Sector in 2012 by Countries Energy sector is responsible for more than half of total GHG emissions in all the NEA economies, except the DPRK. Mongolia Energy Russian Federation Manufacturing and Construction Korea People's Rep. of China Transport Japan Other DPR of Korea 0% Source: IEA, 2014 Note: *Data excludes Hong Kong. 50% 100% Drivers of CO2 Emissions (Kaya Decomposition) 8 Average annual percentage changes between 1990-2012 PRC Mongolia Carbon intensity (CO2/TPES) Energy intensity (TPES/GDP) GDP per population (GDP per capita) Population DPRK Russia Korea Japan CO2 emissions World -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% GHG emissions continues to rise due to population and wealth growths. Reducing the carbon intensity of energy supply in China is a significant factor for mitigating GHG emissions n NEA. 3. Decarbonizing Energy Supply in NEA 9 NEA INDCs The Carbon “Budget” for the 2-degree Target Phasing out coal in NEA NEA GHG Emissions Reduction Targets 10 Quantified Economy-wide Emission Reduction Targets for 2020 INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) Japan 3.8% reduction in 2020 compared to 26% the 2005 level. Russia reduction by FY2030 compared to the FY2013 level (25.4% reduction compared to the FY2005 level. Reduction within a range of 15% - 25%-30% reduction by 25% by 2020, compared with the compared to 1990 levels. 1990 level. 2030 ROK Reduce by 30% from “business as 37% reduction of its BAU emissions usual (BAU)” emissions in 2020. by 2030. China Lower CO2 emissions per unit of Peak by 2030, lower CO2 GDP by 40% - 45% by 2020, emissions per unit of GDP by 60% compared to the 2005 level. - 65% by 2030 from the 2005 level. Source: UNFCCC (Submissions by the Governments to the UNFCCC) 11 IEA: In order to meet 2OC target, global emissions must peak before 2020 and then decline. Renewables shall supply over 50% of electricity by 2050. Source: http://www.iea.org/topics/climatechange/Climate_Change_and_Youth/ GHG emissions must peak by 2020, then have to drop to less than half of 1990 level. 12 Billion tonnes CO2 per year 150 Business As Usual: - Atmospheric CO2 concentration rises to 980 ppm; - The world gets 4.9°C warmer. 100 Low Emissions Path: - Atmospheric CO2 concentration is stabilized at 450 ppm; - Temperature rise is below 2°C. 50 2100 2090 2080 2070 2060 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 0 Source: Adapted from Climate Scoreboard © Climate Interactive 19 April 2013 www.ClimateScoreboard.org Carbon Budget of Northeast Asia Consistent with the Low Emissions Path (LEP) 13 Year 1990 Global CO2 Emissions consistent with the LEP Gt/year Annual Carbon "Budget" (MtCO2) CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion World total Gt/ year Share of World, total, global MtCO2 total % NEA, total NEA share, % 27.64 20.97 76% 20,974 5,869 28% 37.7 31.2 83% 31,187 11,307 36% 2020 41.26 34.17 34,174 12,385 2030 27.37 22.67 22,669 8,215 2040 18.29 15.15 15,149 5,490 2050 12.46 10.32 10,320 3,740 Average 2010–2012 83% World NEA NEA shall emit 7,567 MtCO2 less in 2050 than it emits currently. 2,987 1,077 −8,518 −3,092 36% −16,038 −5,817 −20,867 −7,567 Note: Carbon budget = LEPYEAR – Current CO2 (av.2010-2012) Natural gas is the cleanest fuel among the fossil fuels: 14 Default Net Calorific Values (NCV), (TJ/Gg) Default CO2 Emission Factors for Combustion (kg/TJ) 50 40 120,000 30 100,000 20 10 80,000 0 Coal Oil Natural gas Default Values of Carbon Content (kg/GJ) 60,000 40,000 20,000 - 30 Coal Oil Natural gas 25 20 Replacing coal by natural gas will reduce GHG emissions by almost half. 15 10 5 0 Coal Source: IPCC, 2006 Oil Natural gas CO2 Emissions by Fuel, 2012 15 Million tonnes of CO2(MtCO2) Country Coal Oil Natural gas Total Japan 419.7 535.8 259.8 1,215.3 Korea 291.2 183.6 106.0 580.8 Russian Federation 425.2 350.0 864.9 1,640.1 DPR of Korea 42.9 2.5 - 45.4 Mongolia 10.7 3.5 - 14.2 People's Rep. of China 6,764.4 1,153.7 266.2 8,184.3 China, incl. HK 6,794.0 1,163.1 272.2 8,229.3 NEA, total, incl.HK 7,983.7 2,238.5 1,502.9 11,725.1 68% 19% 13% 100% NEA share, % of total Emission reduction potential by replacing coal with natural gas by 2030: 0.5 x 7,984 = 3,992 MtCO2 Thus, NEA can be on truck consistent with the LEP. Then, renewables need replace the current coal-based energy supply by 2050. 16 4. Conclusions Energy and climate change should be addressed simultaneously within long-term energy security issues: Energy generation shall consider shifting from GHG intensive resources to lower or zero-emission alternatives; The current efforts of NEA countries on GHG mitigation are not sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change. The energy sector is responsible for more than half of total greenhouse emissions in NEA, with coal being the largest contributor to the region’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. If the region is to stay within the boundaries of its carbon budget in compliance with the global 2°C target, coal needs to be completely phased out by 2030. Despite the fact that renewables are becoming technologically and economically more viable for energy generation, immediate implementation will be a huge challenge for the Northeast Asian countries. Therefore, as a transitional step and , owing to potential resources of natural gas in the region (e.g. those in Russia), coal could be replaced by natural gas before 2030. Subsequently, it needs to be replaced with renewable energy or other zeroemission alternatives by 2050. This necessitates various cooperative activities in the region, such as jointly studying various coal-to-gas options: fuel switch at existing plants or closing and replacing coal capacities. ERINA Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia 13F, Bandaijima Bldg, Bandaijima 5-1, Chuo-ku, Niigata-city, 950-0078 Japan Tel: 025-290-5545 Fax: 025-249-7550 Web: http://www.erina.or.jp 17