Download Cooperation on Decarbonizing Energy Supply in Northeast Asia Sh.Enkhbayar Ph.D.

MOFA, ROK / ESCAP
The 3rd Northeast Asia Energy Security Forum
17 December 2015, Seoul
Cooperation on Decarbonizing
Energy Supply in Northeast Asia
Sh.Enkhbayar Ph.D.
Senior Research Fellow
Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia
(ERINA)
2
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Energy & GHG Emissions in NEA
 Energy Mix
 CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion
3. Decarbonizing Energy Supply in NEA
 NEA INDCs
 The Carbon “Budget” for the 2-degree
Target
 Phasing out coal in NEA
4. Conclusions
3
1. Introduction

While the world’s climate has always varied naturally, the vast majority of scientists
now believe that rising concentrations of “greenhouse gases (GHG)” in the Earth’s
atmosphere resulting from economic and demographic growth since the
industrial revolution are overriding this natural variability and leading to potentially
irreversible climate change;

Globally, the energy system-supply, transformation, delivery and use – is the
dominant contributor to GHG emissions;

Thus, energy and climate change need to be addressed simultaneously within
long-term energy security issues.

Scientists warn that the planet is warming faster than previously thought and we
must limit the global mean temperature rise to 2 C from the pre-industrial level
(GHG concentration in the atmosphere must be stabilized below 450 ppm),
(IPCC);

CO2 from energy represents almost 70% of global anthropogenic emissions (IEA);

The global primary energy demand is expected to grow further by around 20% by
2030 from the 2013 level, whereas about 1.3 billion or 18% of the global population
still have no access to electricity (IEA, 2015).

As the IEA noted: “Given the long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, stabilizing
concentrations of greenhouse gases at any level would require a large reduction
of global CO2 emissions from current levels”;

This presentation considers an option to replace coal with natural gas as a
transitional step for NEA towards low-carbon energy supply.
4
2. Energy & GHG Emissions in NEA
 Energy Mix
 CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion
Fossil fuel dominates TPES in NEA
5
Energy Mix Breakdown by NEA countries,
2012
NEA Total:
4,384 Mtoe
People's Rep. of
China
67.9
Mongolia
66.5
Coal
Oil
DPR of Korea
Natural gas
78.4
Nuclear
Hydro
Russian Federation
17.6
Biofuels/waste
Geothermal/solar/wind
Korea
Renewa
bles
8.4%
29.3
Japan
24.8
0%
Share, %
Fossil
fuel
91.6%
Source: IEA
Fossil fuel
Renewables
TPES, Mtoe
TPES, %
20%
Japan
95.5
4.5
452
10.3
40%
60%
80%
Russian
Korea
Federation
98.2
1.8
263
6.0
97.1
2.9
757
17.2
100%
People's
DPR of
Mongolia Rep. of
Korea
China
84.2
96.2
89
15.8
3.8
11
14.1
3.9
2,894
0.3
0.1
66.1
CO2 Emissions by Sector in 2012
6
World
NEA, total (6 countries)
Total: 31,734.4 million tonnes
of CO2
Total: 11,470.7 million tonnes
of CO2
Energy
Energy
8%
10%
11%
23%
47%
Manufacturing
and
Construction
Transport
27%
54%
Manufacturing
and
Construction
Transport
20%
Other
Source: IEA, 2014
Other
NEA region was responsible for 37% of the
global
CO2
emissions
from
fuel
combustion in 2012; and energy
accounted for more than half of total.
7
NEA CO2 Emissions by Sector
in 2012 by Countries
Energy sector is responsible for more than half of total GHG
emissions in all the NEA economies, except the DPRK.
Mongolia
Energy
Russian Federation
Manufacturing
and
Construction
Korea
People's Rep. of China
Transport
Japan
Other
DPR of Korea
0%
Source: IEA, 2014
Note: *Data excludes Hong Kong.
50%
100%
Drivers of CO2 Emissions (Kaya Decomposition)
8
Average annual percentage changes between 1990-2012
PRC
Mongolia
Carbon intensity
(CO2/TPES)
Energy intensity
(TPES/GDP)
GDP per population
(GDP per capita)
Population
DPRK
Russia
Korea
Japan
CO2 emissions
World
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
GHG emissions continues to rise due
to population and wealth growths.
Reducing the carbon intensity of energy
supply in China is a significant factor for
mitigating GHG emissions n NEA.
3. Decarbonizing Energy Supply in NEA
9

NEA INDCs

The Carbon “Budget” for the 2-degree Target

Phasing out coal in NEA
NEA GHG Emissions Reduction Targets
10
Quantified Economy-wide
Emission Reduction Targets for
2020
INDC (Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions)
Japan 3.8% reduction in 2020 compared to 26%
the 2005 level.
Russia
reduction
by
FY2030
compared to the FY2013 level
(25.4% reduction compared to
the FY2005 level.
Reduction within a range of 15% - 25%-30% reduction by
25% by 2020, compared with the compared to 1990 levels.
1990 level.
2030
ROK
Reduce by 30% from “business as 37% reduction of its BAU emissions
usual (BAU)” emissions in 2020.
by 2030.
China
Lower CO2 emissions per unit of Peak by 2030, lower CO2
GDP by 40% - 45% by 2020, emissions per unit of GDP by 60%
compared to the 2005 level.
- 65% by 2030 from the 2005 level.
Source: UNFCCC (Submissions by the Governments to the UNFCCC)
11
IEA:
In order to meet 2OC target, global emissions must peak before 2020 and then
decline. Renewables shall supply over 50% of electricity by 2050.
Source:
http://www.iea.org/topics/climatechange/Climate_Change_and_Youth/
GHG emissions must peak by 2020, then have to
drop to less than half of 1990 level.
12
Billion tonnes CO2
per year
150
Business As Usual:
- Atmospheric CO2
concentration rises to
980 ppm;
- The world gets 4.9°C
warmer.
100
Low Emissions Path:
- Atmospheric CO2
concentration is stabilized
at 450 ppm;
- Temperature rise is below
2°C.
50
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
0
Source: Adapted from Climate Scoreboard © Climate Interactive 19 April
2013 www.ClimateScoreboard.org
Carbon Budget of Northeast Asia Consistent
with the Low Emissions Path (LEP)
13
Year
1990
Global
CO2
Emissions
consistent
with the
LEP
Gt/year
Annual Carbon
"Budget" (MtCO2)
CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion
World
total
Gt/
year
Share of
World, total,
global
MtCO2
total %
NEA,
total
NEA
share,
%
27.64
20.97
76%
20,974
5,869
28%
37.7
31.2
83%
31,187
11,307
36%
2020
41.26
34.17
34,174
12,385
2030
27.37
22.67
22,669
8,215
2040
18.29
15.15
15,149
5,490
2050
12.46
10.32
10,320
3,740
Average
2010–2012
83%
World
NEA
NEA shall emit
7,567 MtCO2 less
in 2050 than it
emits currently.
2,987
1,077
−8,518 −3,092
36%
−16,038 −5,817
−20,867 −7,567
Note: Carbon budget = LEPYEAR – Current CO2 (av.2010-2012)
Natural gas is the cleanest fuel among the fossil fuels:
14
Default Net Calorific Values
(NCV), (TJ/Gg)
Default CO2 Emission
Factors for Combustion
(kg/TJ)
50
40
120,000
30
100,000
20
10
80,000
0
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Default Values of Carbon
Content (kg/GJ)
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
30
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
25
20
Replacing coal by natural gas
will reduce GHG emissions by
almost half.
15
10
5
0
Coal
Source: IPCC, 2006
Oil
Natural gas
CO2 Emissions by Fuel, 2012
15
Million tonnes of CO2(MtCO2)
Country
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Total
Japan
419.7
535.8
259.8
1,215.3
Korea
291.2
183.6
106.0
580.8
Russian Federation
425.2
350.0
864.9
1,640.1
DPR of Korea
42.9
2.5
-
45.4
Mongolia
10.7
3.5
-
14.2
People's Rep. of China
6,764.4
1,153.7
266.2
8,184.3
China, incl. HK
6,794.0
1,163.1
272.2
8,229.3
NEA, total, incl.HK
7,983.7
2,238.5
1,502.9
11,725.1
68%
19%
13%
100%
NEA share, % of total
Emission reduction potential by replacing coal with natural gas by 2030:
0.5 x 7,984 = 3,992 MtCO2
Thus, NEA can be on truck consistent with the LEP.
Then, renewables need replace the current coal-based energy supply by 2050.
16
4. Conclusions
 Energy and climate change should be addressed simultaneously within long-term
energy security issues:

Energy generation shall consider shifting from GHG intensive resources to lower or zero-emission
alternatives;
 The current efforts of NEA countries on GHG mitigation are not sufficient to avoid
dangerous climate change.
 The energy sector is responsible for more than half of total greenhouse emissions in
NEA, with coal being the largest contributor to the region’s CO2 emissions from fossil
fuel combustion.

If the region is to stay within the boundaries of its carbon budget in compliance
with the global 2°C target, coal needs to be completely phased out by 2030.
 Despite the fact that renewables are becoming technologically and economically
more viable for energy generation, immediate implementation will be a huge
challenge for the Northeast Asian countries.
 Therefore, as a transitional step and , owing to potential resources of natural gas in
the region (e.g. those in Russia), coal could be replaced by natural gas before
2030. Subsequently, it needs to be replaced with renewable energy or other zeroemission alternatives by 2050.
 This necessitates various cooperative activities in the region, such as jointly studying
various coal-to-gas options: fuel switch at existing plants or closing and replacing
coal capacities.
ERINA Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia
13F, Bandaijima Bldg, Bandaijima 5-1, Chuo-ku,
Niigata-city, 950-0078 Japan
Tel: 025-290-5545
Fax: 025-249-7550
Web: http://www.erina.or.jp
17