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Climate change and crop production in ASEAN+3 Wei Xiong IEDA CAAS Email: [email protected] 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) /Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Overview • Background • Agricultural challenges • Impact of future climate change on crop production • Summary Background • The effects of climate change have happened in the regions. – T increase, e.g. increased by 0.5-1.1 oC during 1901-2005 in SEA, 1.2 oC during 1961-2006 in China. – P patterns are changing regionally, with increases in some locations, and decrease in others. – Sea level is rising • Projections indicate climate change will continue to occur – Approximately 1 oC through 2030. – P projections with uncertainties, but will has larger increases in inter-annual and interseasonal variations – The changes in monsoons and ENSO patterns would significantly affect agricultural prodution. East and Southeast Asia are at risk from the impacts of climate change in the next 20 years due to the region’s large and growing population, long coastlines, abundant low-lying areas, reliance on the agricultural sector, and dependence upon natural resources. Agricultural challenges in ASEAN+3 • Higher year-to-year variability. The region’s monsoonal climate generates highly variable weather conditions including severe storms and extreme droughts and flooding. • Unsustainable agricultural practices. The productivity of the region’s arable land is threatened by unsustainable agriculture practices, erosion caused by loss of forest cover, industrial pollution, and pesticides. • Limited infrastructure in the less developed countries and regions, particularly Laos and Cambodia, hampers the movement of agricultural goods beyond local markets. • These factors combine to render the agricultural populations most vulnerable in the countries that also have the least capacity to cope with climatic challenges. Snow storm in south China (2008) Share of rice production (2001-2009) in ASEAN + 3 counties Monoculture— growing of a single crop—is prevalent in the region, particularly in SE Brunei Darussalam, 902.2222222 Cambodia, 5615729.111 Viet Nam, 35835444.44 Republic of Korea, 6581108.375 Singapore, 0 Thailand, 29255876.44 Philippines, 14830456.33 Malaysia, 2283594 Myanmar, 26522033.75 Lao People's Democratic Republic, 2629887.778 Japan, 10848250 Indonesia, 55398888.44 China, 182423773.4 Yield variation across ASEAN + 3 counties Rice Yield 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Projected impacts of climate change on crop production Few related studies focused on the region • Statistic methods • Physical models Probabilistic projections of production impacts in 2030 from climate change (expressed as a percentage of 1998 to 2002 average yields). (Lobell et al., 2008, Science) Based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate southeast Asia may suffer negative impacts on several crops if without appropriate adaptation measures. Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated Rice ADB DMC production = -16.2% Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Rainfed Rice ADB DMC production = -12.6% Impact on Asian Rice Production Page 11 Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated Maize ADB DMC production = -8.5% Asia similar to global impact Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Rainfed Maize ADB DMC production = -17.4% Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Irrigated Wheat ADB DMC production = -21.1% Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Rainfed Wheat ADB DMC production = +16.4% Impact on Asian Wheat Production Page 16 US $ / mt Impact on International Food Prices 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Rice 2000 Wheat 2000 Maize 2050 2050 No Climate Change O. Grains Soybeans 2050 2050 Climate Change Price increase from 10% (soybean) to 52% (Maize) Page 17 Impact on Total Cereal Demand Page 18 Impact on Net Cereal Trade Price increases from 9% (soybean) to 54% (O grains) China - increased net exports; India - larger net imports Page 19 Studies of China and its implications 由于气候变化,4度左右的增温时,增加的单季稻面积最大可达50万公顷,双季稻可 达620万公顷 (Xiong et al., climate research) The rice cultivation area increases due to climate change, 0.5/6.20 Mha (single rice cropping/double rice cropping) (Xiong et al., climate research) The suitable area for rice plantation will move north due to the climate change, this moving has happened in last two decade, particularly in Heilongjiang, a north most province in China. 气候变化、社会经济发展而引起的农业水供需的变化(熊伟,等 AEE) But water will become a significant stress factor for agricultural production. Irrigated area and paddy rice area have to be reduced if without effective water saving practices. IPCC SRES development Pathways (A2 and B2) Climate Change scenarios (A2 andB2) Effects of CO2 T, P, R (50km×50km) No, A2, B2 CERES models (rice, wheat and maize) VIC Hydrological model Water resources Impacts on crop yield and irrigation demand Socio-economic Scenarios (A2 and B2) GDP, pop., water demand, land use (Provincial Level) Arable land in Future Water for agriculture Land use change policies Water allocation policies Improvements in Agric. Tech. Adapt ation respo nses A simulation framework: interactions of climate change, water availability, and socio-economic development on China’s food production (Xiong et al., 2009). Vulnerability of China’s food production in future Percentage changes in irrigated paddy rice due to decreases in future agricultural water availability. Lack of Money 100% Limited availability of labour 50% Poor infrastructure Climate change might deteriorate rural people’s livelihood in some regions, due to the changes of natural endorsement on which the rural people depend. 0% Lack of farming inputs Lack of technology Water shortage Northern irrigation area Middle arid area Southern rainfed mountainous area The factors influencing farmer’s adaptation activitities Climate change and the poor(2009) http://www.greenpeace.org/china/zh/press/reports/povertyreport2009 Adaptation measures - Drought Plastic film Plastic film+ Gravel Adaptation measures - Drought Water cellar Rain water harvest Adaptation measures - Drought Terrace Water saving measures Hole irrigation furrow irrigation Conservation tillage Anti-leakage ditch Adaptation measures Government and scientific community Water diversion Drought resistance variety Weather modification Adaptation measures Highlights • Climate change will increase production potential in north areas, decrease in south. • Increased instability of agricultural production, particularly for rice production. • Diversify crops and practices can adapt to the climate change, and increase grain quantity. • Larger uncertainties existed in the continental or national analysis, impacts are more local specific, cooperation is need to deal with the challenges. 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