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Consistency of observed winter
precipitation trends in northern Europe
with regional climate change projections
Jonas Bhend and Hans von Storch
GKSS Research Institute, Geesthacht, Germany
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Motivation
>
Gap between formal detection and attribution studies and
“significant trends” studies
>
Are the recent trends consistent with regional climate change
projections?
— Plausibility arguments
— A priori assumption about the mechanism
— Less informative than DnA but no estimate of natural variability
needed
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Data
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Observations:
— CRU TS 2.1 monthly precipitation
— 0.5° latitude-longitude grid
>
Climate change scenarios:
—
—
—
—
RCAO simulations of the SMHI (PRUDENCE)
0.44° rotated grid
Two different driving GCMs, HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3
Two emission scenarios SRES A2 and B2
— Four climate change scenarios defined as the difference
between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 mean
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Method
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Pattern correlation
S  O
i
PCC 
i
 S  O
2
i
i

>
i
2
i
S: Climate change signal
O: Trends in observations
i
Ratio of Intensities
O
S
with:
1
O 
Oi2

n i
and:
1
S 
Si2

n i
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Climate change scenarios...
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... and observations
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Pattern correlation
> Patterns are similar
> Better correspondence with ECHAM scenarios
> Better correspondence with stronger GHG forcing (A2)
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Sensitivity of PCCs
> Bootstrap with CRU precip fields
— randomly select precip fields
— compute trends
— correlate trend fields
> Autocorrelation:
moving blocks bootstrap, 5 years
Histogram of PCCs for the Baltic catchment
(shaded) and northern Europe (hatched)
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Pattern correlation
> PCCs for the Baltic catchment significant
> PCCs for all of northern Europe are not significant for HadAM B2
> Above findings robust to removal of the NAO
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Intensity
> Change in the observations much stronger than in scenarios
— RCM simulations are wrong
— additional forcings
— natural variability
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Mean change
> Change in the observations much stronger than in scenarios
— RCM simulations are wrong
— additional forcings
— natural variability
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Different trend lengths
>
>
>
PCCs decrease with increasing trend length
Significance levels are not affected by choice of trend length
Intensity and mean change decrease with increasing trend
length
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Conclusions - pattern correlation
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Baltic catchment:
— Regional climate change scenarios are consistent
— Observed and expected patterns are similar and significant
>
Northern Europe:
— Regional climate change scenarios are partly consistent
— Pattern similarity with HadAM signal could be random
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Conclusions - intensity
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Both intensity and mean change suggest that:
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Assuming the model response to anthropogenic forcing is
correct, a large part (30 to 70 percent) of the observed trends
is due to other factors (e.g. natural variability).
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Thank you for your attention.