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INTER-MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE
ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Corintia Atlantic Hotel
Banjul, The Gambia
29-30 January, 2009
OVERVIEW OF THE BALI
ROAD MAP
William Kojo Agyemang Bonsu
1
Climate Change Convention initially focused on mitigation (1992)
Convention objective
Achieve stabilization
of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the
atmosphere at a
low enough level to
prevent “dangerous
anthropogenic
Interference” with
the climate system
• Allow ecosystems to
adapt naturally
to climate change;
within
timeframe
sufficient to
• Ensure food production
is not threatened; and
• Enable economic
development to
proceed sustainably
No Binding Targets: UNFCCC signed by 191 Parties
2
The Convention clusters countries in three groups
“Common, but differentiated responsibilities”
Annex I
Annex II
Non-Annex I
Industrialised
countries &
Economies in
Transition (EITs)
Industrialised
countries
Developing
countries
• Adopt policies
and measures with
aim of reducing GHG
emissions to 1990
levels
• Provide financial
resources to enable
developing countries to
meet the costs of
implementing measures
• EITs have “flexibility”
in commitments
• Promote technology
transfer to EITs and
non-Annex I Parties
• No quantitative
obligations
• Least Developed
Countries given
special consideration
3
Bali Road Map - Breakthrough
• Shared understanding for the necessity of common efforts,
both by developed and developing countries
• Climate change linked to economic growth and
sustainable development goals and needs – recognition
action fall across a variety of economic sectors
• Deadline for negotiations by 2009: to ensure entry into force
of future regime by 2012
4
Bali Road Map – two tracks
Kyoto Protocol “track” (launched in 2005)
•
•
•
Agree on developed countries emission reduction targets by
2009
For 450 ppm CO2-eq, GHG emissions would need to be reduced
for about 25 to 40 % by 2020
Means to achieve targets: mechanisms (CDM, JI, ET), national
policies, accounting issues, role of LULUCF, etc.
Convention “track” (launched in 2007)
•
•
•
•
Focuses on four “building blocks”: adaptation, mitigation,
technology transfer & deployment, financing
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation
(REDD) also discussed
Mitigation actions from developing countries
Mitigation commitments from developed countries
5
Transition from
UNFCCC………
Building
Blocks
Global Action
Sustainable Development Objectives
Finance
Mitigation
Mitigation
Adaptation
Adaptation
Technology
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The Road to Copenhagen (COP-15): Progress in 2008
First session, Bangkok, 31 March-4 April 2008
•
•
Convention: Work programme and workshops for 2008
KP: Flexible mechanisms should continue as means to meet
targets and could be appropriately improved
Second session, Bonn, 2-12 June 2008
•
•
Convention: Initial substantive discussions of building blocks
KP: compilation of views on means of implementation (LULUCF,
CDM, JI and ET)
Third session, Accra, 21-27 August 2008
•
•
•
Work programme for 2009.
Parties started submitting textual proposals on building blocks
KP: options for means to achieve and criteria to define targets
Fourth session, Poznan, 1-12 December 2008
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Half-way to Copenhagen: outcomes of Poznan
Convention track:
• Assembly of ideas and proposals by the Chair
• Work programme for 2009 adopted
• Mandate to the Chair to issue options paper for an outcome in
February and a draft negotiating text by June
• Proposals on shared vision and building blocks and long-term
targets
KP track:
• Work programme for 2009 adopted
• Targets post-2012 to principally take the form of quantified
emission limitation and reduction objectives
Other outcomes:
• 2nd review of the KP under Article 9 fails over share of proceeds
• Adaptation Fund finalized: ready to receive projects in 2009
• GEF “Poznan Strategic Programme on Technology Transfer”
• CDM governance reform
8
Way ahead in 2009
• 2009 key for defining key features and crunch issues
• Next session 30 March-8 April:
• Start negotiations on options for an agreed outcome
• Emission reductions by Annex I Parties in aggregate
• A number of submissions invited
• Second session on 1–12 June:
• Draft negotiating text in the Convention
• Individual and joint contributions by Annex I Parties
• pick up on CDM reform
• Third session August/September
• Fourth session 30 November-11 December in Copenhagen
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UNFCCC negotiation structure
• Negotiators/Ministers
• Conference of the Parties
• Subsidiary Bodies (SBSTA, SBI, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA)
• Expert bodies / Special bodies (Bureau, Adaptation Fund
Board, CDM Board, EGTT, LEG, etc.)
• Contact groups / Informal meetings / friends of Chair
(negotiating texts)
• Constituencies (G77 and China, LDCs, Regional Groups, EU,
Umbrella, etc..)
• Other means: submissions, workshops
10
LAND USE,
LAND-USE CHANGE
& FORESTRY
Madeleine Diouf-Sarr, Senegal
11
What we know
Land-use sector, including forestry and agriculture, is
important source of GHG emissions
20%-30% of total emission
Can play key role in climate change mitigation
Emerging as important issue in post-2012 regime
discussions
12
Evolution of international negotiations
Key sector for developed countries because of mitigation
potential
•
Contentious because of high uncertainties
Developing countries focused mainly on GHG inventories
(issues of data, resources, capacity)
Major step in Marrakesh (2001) under Kyoto Protocol:
Afforestation & reforestation included in CDM
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation & Forest Degradation
(REDD) becomes Convention topic
13
Lessons from CDM
The Marrakesh Accords limit eligible LULUCF activities in the
CDM to afforestation and reforestation (A/R) for the first
commitment period. Activities in bioenergy are also eligible until 2012.
Parties have to provide definition of forest that they would adopt at the
national level
Rules and procedures that govern A/R CDM for the first commitment period
were only finally decided in 2004.
A/R CDM has stimulated new interest for planting trees, especially
in seriously degraded areas. This can be indeed a new opportunity
for the forest sector, as it can open the possibility to promote long-term
activities such as restoration of forestland or tree plantations, particularly
through the promotion of community forestry, which could have an important
developmental impact in rural areas.
1414
Difficulties noted
Complexity in the design of the project (carbon
Accounting system, leakage, issues on non permanency, legal
requirements in respect to property rights on land and the
transaction costs involved in project preparation).
Lack of accurate information in many developing
countries;
General sense of low governance in the forest sector,
especially in developing countries;
1515
Key issues under the Bali Action Plan
Four key mitigation options identified for developing
countries:
1. REDD (reduction of emissions from deforestation and
forest degradation)
2. Sustainable forest management
3. Forest restoration (carbon sequestration)
4. Afforestation & reforestation (carbon sequestration)
Developing countries want:
• Financial incentives (new & additional)
• Wider set of eligible activities
16
Mitigation measures from Gambia
The Gambian Forest Management Concept (GFMC)” is not to
increase the forest in terms of area but improve the forest cover
and heavily undertake agroforestry and energy saving
(development of bioenergy) (case example for CDM).
The new policy (2006 - 2016) aims at maintaining at least 30%
of the total land area under forest cover and to manage at least
75% of this area. (REDD national approach ).
1717
BALI ACTION PLAN
BUILDING BLOCK
ADAPTATION
Madeleine Diouf-Sarr, Senegal
18
What we know
Adaptation: Process of sustainable and permanent
adjustment to changing circumstances
• Closely linked to development
• Needs to converge with disaster risk reduction activities
• Impact assessments dominated by uncertainties & complex
interactions
• Will require substantial funding ($ tens of billions)
19
Key challenges in adaptation
• Hard to define: very broad, far-reaching in scope
• Will require adjustments across every aspect of society,
environment & economy
• Not stand-alone issue: linked to economic development,
poverty reduction, disaster management
• Requires capacity for short- and long-term planning
• Adequate institutional arrangements (systematic planning,
co-operation, and regulatory frameworks)
20
Evolution of international negotiations
• Initial focus of negotiations from 1995 was mitigation
• Adaptation identified as issue at COP-7 in 2001 (Marrakesh
Accords)
• Identified 14 adaptation activities needing support
• Created NAPA process and LDC Expert Group (LEG)
• LDC Fund, Special Climate Change Fund, Adaptation
Fund
• COP 10 to 12 (2004 to 2006)
• Buenos Aires Programme of Action on Adaptation and
•
•
Response Measures
Nairobi Work Programme
Implementation measures on methods, activities,
technology transfer and financing
21
Key issues under the Bali Action Plan
Four discussion topics identified:
1. National planning for adaptation
2. Streamlining and scaling up financial & technological
support
3. Enhanced knowledge sharing
4. Institutional frameworks for adaptation
Key challenges
•
•
•
Current level of funding
Experience of developing countries in accessing funds
Need for additional financial flows in future
22
BALI ACTION PLAN
BUILDING BLOCK
MITIGATION
Madaka Tumbo, Tanzania
23
What we know
Mitigation: Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
or enhancement of “sinks”
• Human activity is contributing to climate change and all
sectors will be impacted
• ALL countries must reduce emissions to avoid worst
damages
• Developed countries by 0 to -25% to -25 to -40% in 2020
• Developing countries “substantially” deviate from baseline
(-15-30% suggested for major economies in Poznan)
• Significant technological progress made, but annual
investment of $200-210 billion needed by 2030
• Forests and land use will be part of the solution
24
Key issues under the Bali Action Plan
Bali Action Plan calls on developing countries to identify
mitigation actions that are:
• Measurable
• Reportable
• Verifiable (MRV)
• MRV implies support for technology, finance,
and capacity building for developing countries
• Developed countries must make commitments and
action
• International agreement will be major challenge
25
Key challenges under the Bali Action Plan
Mitigation is highly contentious issue in negotiations,
in danger of remaining blocked
At issue:
• “Common but differentiated responsibilities”
• Outcome differs depending on: which GHGs, which
•
sources, time frame, scale (national vs per capita
emissions)
Comparability: how to bring Convention and Kyoto
Protocol tracks together
• G77 & China want all developed countries to take on
•
commitments
• US must come to the table
How to match mitigation actions by developing countries
with support from developing countries
26
Proposals on table in the negotiations
Evolution of Clean Development Mechanism
•
• Sustainble development policies &
measures (SD-PAMs)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sectoral approaches
Kyoto-style fixed targets
Per capita
Brazilian proposal
National context
Emissions intensity
Global Triptych
Proposal on MRV by South Africa in Poznan (pooling action
pledges and support) potential for compromise
27
Proposals on table in the negotiations
Evolution of Clean Development Mechanism
• Evolving beyond a strict project basis to programmatic
CDM
• Various options: expansion of the “programmatic” CDM,
policy CDM, new eligible activities in the CDM, sectoral
benchmarks, etc.
• Possible expansion of use of the CDM to support larger
sectoral mitigation action, suggesting a scaling up to
particular national sectors, e.g. power
• Depends on the demand for credits!
28
Proposals on table in the negotiations
Sustainable development policies & measures (SD-PAMs)
• Setting mitigation goals as part of sustainable
development goals (e.g. to electrify rural area in country
by 2030 using renewable energy)
• Financing mechanisms for these goals can vary (CDM,
financial mechanism, etc…)
• Option can be implemented based on existing provisions
in the Convention and KP (Convention Article 4.1 (b)
and Kyoto Protocol Article 10)
29
Proposals on table in the negotiations
Sectoral approaches
• Setting mitigation goals for a specific economic sector
within a time frame
• Different perspectives: national sectors, global sectors –
different implications
• Different options for goals: goals linked to other
mechanisms (i.e. programmatic CDM, SD PAMs), loose
targets, fix targets
• Different options for financing depending: crediting for
achievement of targets (through CDM or new market
based mechanism or incentives such as financial support
and technology transfer)
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Examples of mitigation options
Common policies in developing countries include:
• Regulations and standards, e.g., mandates for biofuel,
renewable energy policies
• Financial incentives, e.g., subsidies for energy-efficient
lighting
• Research & development, e.g., improving energy-efficient
stoves in Senegal and promoting dissemination
• Information instruments, e.g., energy efficiency labelling
programmes and consumer awareness programmes
31
BALI ACTION PLAN
BUILDING BLOCK
FINANCING
Bhujang Dharmaji, UNDP
32
What we know
Mitigation measures will require additional I&F flows of $200-210
billion in 2030
Adaptation measures will require additional I&F flows in 2030 of
several tens of billion $
• Amounts are large in absolute terms, but small relative
to global GDP and investment
• Private sector dominates investments: corporations
(60%); households (24%); government (14%)
33
Evolution of international negotiations
Finance sources under the Convention and Kyoto Protocol
GEF Trust Fund
Mitigation, Adaptation
Mitigation: $3.3 bil. (1991-2010)
Adaptation: $50 mil. (-2010)
Special Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation,
Fund (SCCF)
Technology cooperation
$74 mil. (- March 2008)
Least Developed
Adaptation
Countries Fund (LDCF)
$173 mil. pledged (-March 2008)
Adaptation Fund
Adaptation
~ $80-300 mil. p.a. (-2012)
Clean Development
Mechanism
Mitigation
Estimated revenue
(as per 2008): $7 bil. p.a
34
Key issues under the Bali Action Plan
• Improved access to adequate, predictable &
sustainable financial resources
• New and additional funding
• Positive incentives to implement mitigation &
adaptation actions
• Innovative funding means to meet adaptation costs
• Mobilisation of public and private sector funding
• Financial and technical support for capacity building
35
Financing options
Increasing the Scale of Existing Mechanisms
CDM and Other Possible Crediting Mechanisms: $25
Adaptation Fund: $0.5-2
Contributions from Developed Countries
Financial Commitments Mechanism under the Convention: $130-260
Contributions from Developed and Developing Countries
World Climate Change Fund: $10
Multilateral Adaptation Fund: $18
More Stringent Commitments by Developed Countries
Auction of Assigned Amount Units: $5
(in billion $)
For more information, refer to paper “Negotiations on additional investment
and financial flows to address climate change in developing countries”, table 6
36
•
•
•
•
•
Proposals by Parties on Finance and Investment
Generating funding
– Criteria and indicators for provision of finance/ contributions
– The level of contribution/specific tragets
– Sources of funding
Positive incentives for developing countries
– For mitigation
– REDD
– Adaptation
– Technology
Disbursement of and access to funding
Innovative funding for adaptation
Institutional arrangements for finance and investment
37
BALI ACTION PLAN
BUILDING BLOCK
TECHNOLOGY
DEVELOPMENT &
TRANSFER
William Kojo Agyemang-Bonsu, Ghana
38
What we know
Stages of technology options: Research, development and
demonstration / deployment / transfer
• Investments in clean energy are growing fast, including
new financial products and markets
• Substantial financing gap for the required scaling up
• Private sector incentives must be reinforced
• Most favoured technologies in recent years: wind, solar,
biofuels (renewables increasingly relevant)
• Carbon markets (including CDM) can play important role
for developing countries
• Smaller and lower-income countries still to see benefits
39
Evolution of international negotiations
• Developed countries required to support transfer of
technologies to developing countries
•
•
•
•
Environmentally sound-technologies
Suited to local conditions
Dissemination of technology information & networking
Strengthened research and capacity building
• Identified as key modality for mitigation and adaptation:
gaining momentum in negotiations
• Kyoto Protocol: also emphasises need for financial
resources, CDM
40
Key issues under the Bali Action Plan
• Removal of barriers to promoting technology transfer
including:
•
•
•
•
Financing
Intellectual property rights
Tariffs and non-tariffs
Capacity
• Ways to accelerate deployment, diffusion and transfer of
technologies
• Co-operation on research and development
• Effectiveness of tools & mechanisms for technology cooperation
41
Proposals from Parties
Institutional arrangements for a new mechanism for RDD&D
and technology transfer, i.e., new body with mandate for:
• Compulsory licensing
• Patent purchase
• Incentive provisions for technology transfer
• Funding for technology co-operation activities
• Development of indicators, monitoring, verification, etc
New policy initiatives
• Specific technology or sector-based approaches
• Technology & efficiency standards
• Identification of breakthrough technologies
• Creation of centres of excellence to promote technology
• Information diffusion mechanisms (national and international)
New financial mechanisms
• Multilateral Fund
• Venture Capital Initiative
42
WORK FOR ASSESSING
INVESTMENT &
FINANCIAL FLOWS
FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
Presented at the
UNDP Workshop
on Investment
and Financial Flows
Bhujang
Dharmaji, UNDP
12-13 September, 2008
43
Project goals & outcomes
• Goals
•
•
Development of national policy options to address climate
change in key sectors
Increased capacity to co-ordinate negotiating positions at
national level and participate in the UNFCCC process
• Outcomes
1 National awareness raised with capacity development
programme
2 Investment and financial (I&F) flows assessed for up to 3 key
sectors
3 Web-based knowledge platform launched
44
Sequencing of national activities
Preworkshop
preparation
(2 months)
• Key line
ministries
engaged
• Key sectors
identified
• National
issues
papers
prepared
National
workshop on
Bali Action
Plan,
national
issues
Assessment of I&F flows to address CC
mitigation/adaptation options for up to 3
key economic sectors (6-8 months)
National workshop on:
Bali Action Plan
UNDP methodology on
assessing I&F flows
• Adaptation, mitigation,
technology transfer,
financing + LULUCF
Backstopping from
regional centres of
excellence
Key sectors
National
workshop to
present
results,
policy
options
• Update on
Bali Action
Plan
negotiations
• I&F flows
assessments
presented
• Post-2012
preparation
45
I&FF work
I&FF assessment
 What are the adaptation/ mitigation options for up to 3 sectors
selected in the next 25 years?
 Who is investing in the sector / major players and sources?
 How I&FF are estimated to happen in next 25 years?
 What shifts/increase in I&FF will be needed in the sector?
 What will be the overall needs for additional I&FF?
3 Main guides
 Work Plan Guidance
 Methodological guidance
 Reporting guidance
46
Preparation stage (1- 2 months)









Define national objectives and goals for the assessment
Identify and agree on the key sectors
Establish the I&FF team
Assess methodological capacities and needs
Assess information availability and needs
Agree the institutional arrangements
Develop the overall programme of work and budget
Define the scope of the sectors
Adjustment of available scenarios and/or development of
new scenarios
 Develop detailed workplan
 Develop budget
47
I&FF team
Project Focal Point
Sectoral team leader
Sectoral team leader
Sectoral team leader
Sector 1 Team,
e.g. energy
mitigation
Sector 2 Team,
e.g. agriculture
adaptation
Mitigation expert(s)
Adaptation expert(s)
Adaptation expert(s)
Energy expert(s)
Agriculture expert(s)
Water expert(s)
Finance expert(s)
Finance expert(s)
Finance expert(s)
Economic/statistics expert(s)
Economic/statistics expert(s)
Economic/statistics expert(s)
NGO/academic expert(s)
NGO/academic expert(s)
NGO/academic expert(s)
Private sector expert(s)
Private sector expert(s)
Private sector expert(s)
Sector 3 Team, e.g.
water adaptation
48
UNDP support
$ support
Guides
I&FF training (3 days)
Center of excellence technical backstopping (20 days)
Knowledge platform – with “communities” to exchange
information
Global workshops
49
Implementation stage (5 – 6 months)
Conduct I&FF assessment (methodological and
reporting guidelines)
Guidance and procedures for:
 Documentation
 Spreadsheet management
 Quality control and quality assurance procedures
 Archiving
50
Reporting stage
 File management control measures;
Data-sharing procedures and timelines;
Editorial directions (e.g., use of acronyms, instructions
on what and how to report); and
Documentation and archiving procedures.
 Structure and content of write-ups (i.e., an outline or
description of what should be contained in each section,
examples of the required tables and style guidelines,
etc);
Formatting (e.g., format for each level of heading,
procedures for use of common acronyms and units,
reference format, table formats).
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